Intrinsic value of Premium Brands Holdings Corporation - PBH

Previous Close

$99.05

  Intrinsic Value

$99.42

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

0%

Previous close

$99.05

 
Intrinsic value

$99.42

 
Up/down potential

0%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of PBH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  25.39
  25.40
  23.36
  21.52
  19.87
  18.38
  17.05
  15.84
  14.76
  13.78
  12.90
  12.11
  11.40
  10.76
  10.19
  9.67
  9.20
  8.78
  8.40
  8.06
  7.76
  7.48
  7.23
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.46
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
Revenue, $m
  1,862
  2,335
  2,880
  3,500
  4,196
  4,967
  5,814
  6,735
  7,729
  8,794
  9,929
  11,132
  12,401
  13,735
  15,134
  16,597
  18,124
  19,716
  21,372
  23,095
  24,887
  26,748
  28,683
  30,693
  32,782
  34,955
  37,215
  39,566
  42,014
  44,563
  47,219
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,079
  2,558
  3,101
  3,711
  4,387
  5,130
  5,937
  6,809
  7,743
  8,738
  9,760
  10,873
  12,043
  13,270
  14,553
  15,892
  17,287
  18,740
  20,250
  21,821
  23,453
  25,149
  26,912
  28,744
  30,649
  32,630
  34,692
  36,838
  39,073
  41,402
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  109
  111
  114
  117
  120
  123
  126
  129
  132
  136
  139
  143
  146
  150
  154
  157
  161
  165
  169
  174
  178
  182
  187
  192
  197
  201
  206
  212
  217
  222
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,767
  2,188
  2,669
  3,215
  3,828
  4,507
  5,253
  6,063
  6,938
  7,875
  8,874
  9,899
  11,016
  12,189
  13,420
  14,707
  16,049
  17,448
  18,905
  20,419
  21,995
  23,631
  25,331
  27,099
  28,936
  30,846
  32,831
  34,898
  37,050
  39,290
  41,624
Operating income, $m
  95
  147
  211
  285
  368
  460
  561
  672
  791
  919
  1,055
  1,232
  1,385
  1,546
  1,715
  1,891
  2,075
  2,267
  2,467
  2,676
  2,892
  3,117
  3,351
  3,594
  3,847
  4,109
  4,383
  4,668
  4,964
  5,273
  5,594
EBITDA, $m
  130
  204
  274
  355
  445
  545
  656
  776
  906
  1,045
  1,194
  1,352
  1,518
  1,693
  1,877
  2,069
  2,270
  2,479
  2,697
  2,923
  3,159
  3,404
  3,659
  3,923
  4,199
  4,485
  4,782
  5,092
  5,415
  5,751
  6,101
Interest expense (income), $m
  15
  16
  23
  30
  39
  49
  60
  72
  85
  99
  114
  130
  147
  165
  184
  204
  224
  246
  268
  292
  316
  342
  368
  395
  424
  453
  484
  516
  549
  584
  620
Earnings before tax, $m
  95
  131
  189
  255
  329
  411
  501
  600
  706
  820
  941
  1,102
  1,238
  1,381
  1,531
  1,687
  1,851
  2,021
  2,199
  2,384
  2,576
  2,775
  2,983
  3,199
  3,423
  3,656
  3,899
  4,152
  4,415
  4,689
  4,974
Tax expense, $m
  26
  35
  51
  69
  89
  111
  135
  162
  191
  221
  254
  298
  334
  373
  413
  456
  500
  546
  594
  644
  695
  749
  805
  864
  924
  987
  1,053
  1,121
  1,192
  1,266
  1,343
Net income, $m
  69
  96
  138
  186
  240
  300
  366
  438
  515
  599
  687
  805
  904
  1,008
  1,117
  1,232
  1,351
  1,476
  1,605
  1,740
  1,880
  2,026
  2,177
  2,335
  2,499
  2,669
  2,846
  3,031
  3,223
  3,423
  3,631

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  19
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,121
  1,382
  1,704
  2,071
  2,483
  2,939
  3,440
  3,985
  4,573
  5,204
  5,875
  6,587
  7,338
  8,127
  8,955
  9,821
  10,725
  11,666
  12,646
  13,666
  14,726
  15,827
  16,972
  18,161
  19,398
  20,683
  22,021
  23,412
  24,860
  26,369
  27,940
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,102
  1,382
  1,704
  2,071
  2,483
  2,939
  3,440
  3,985
  4,573
  5,204
  5,875
  6,587
  7,338
  8,127
  8,955
  9,821
  10,725
  11,666
  12,646
  13,666
  14,726
  15,827
  16,972
  18,161
  19,398
  20,683
  22,021
  23,412
  24,860
  26,369
  27,940
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
Average production assets, $m
  355
  444
  547
  665
  797
  944
  1,105
  1,280
  1,469
  1,671
  1,887
  2,115
  2,356
  2,610
  2,876
  3,154
  3,444
  3,746
  4,061
  4,388
  4,728
  5,082
  5,450
  5,832
  6,229
  6,641
  7,071
  7,518
  7,983
  8,467
  8,972
Working capital, $m
  190
  240
  297
  361
  432
  512
  599
  694
  796
  906
  1,023
  1,147
  1,277
  1,415
  1,559
  1,710
  1,867
  2,031
  2,201
  2,379
  2,563
  2,755
  2,954
  3,161
  3,377
  3,600
  3,833
  4,075
  4,327
  4,590
  4,864
Total debt, $m
  427
  579
  777
  1,002
  1,254
  1,534
  1,841
  2,175
  2,535
  2,922
  3,333
  3,770
  4,230
  4,714
  5,222
  5,752
  6,306
  6,883
  7,484
  8,109
  8,759
  9,434
  10,136
  10,865
  11,623
  12,411
  13,231
  14,083
  14,971
  15,896
  16,859
Total liabilities, $m
  695
  847
  1,045
  1,270
  1,522
  1,802
  2,109
  2,443
  2,803
  3,190
  3,601
  4,038
  4,498
  4,982
  5,490
  6,020
  6,574
  7,151
  7,752
  8,377
  9,027
  9,702
  10,404
  11,133
  11,891
  12,679
  13,499
  14,351
  15,239
  16,164
  17,127
Total equity, $m
  426
  535
  660
  802
  961
  1,137
  1,331
  1,542
  1,770
  2,014
  2,274
  2,549
  2,840
  3,145
  3,466
  3,801
  4,150
  4,515
  4,894
  5,289
  5,699
  6,125
  6,568
  7,028
  7,507
  8,004
  8,522
  9,060
  9,621
  10,205
  10,813
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,121
  1,382
  1,705
  2,072
  2,483
  2,939
  3,440
  3,985
  4,573
  5,204
  5,875
  6,587
  7,338
  8,127
  8,956
  9,821
  10,724
  11,666
  12,646
  13,666
  14,726
  15,827
  16,972
  18,161
  19,398
  20,683
  22,021
  23,411
  24,860
  26,369
  27,940
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.002
  1.080
  1.180
  1.250
  1.310
  1.350
  1.380
  1.410
  1.430
  1.450
  1.470
  1.480
  1.490
  1.500
  1.510
  1.510
  1.520
  1.520
  1.530
  1.530
  1.540
  1.540
  1.540
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.560
  1.560
  1.560
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.381
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  69
  96
  138
  186
  240
  300
  366
  438
  515
  599
  687
  805
  904
  1,008
  1,117
  1,232
  1,351
  1,476
  1,605
  1,740
  1,880
  2,026
  2,177
  2,335
  2,499
  2,669
  2,846
  3,031
  3,223
  3,423
  3,631
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  35
  57
  63
  70
  77
  85
  94
  104
  115
  126
  139
  119
  133
  147
  162
  178
  195
  212
  229
  248
  267
  287
  308
  329
  352
  375
  399
  425
  451
  478
  507
Funds from operations, $m
  171
  153
  201
  256
  317
  385
  460
  542
  630
  725
  826
  924
  1,037
  1,156
  1,280
  1,410
  1,546
  1,687
  1,835
  1,988
  2,147
  2,313
  2,485
  2,664
  2,851
  3,044
  3,246
  3,455
  3,674
  3,901
  4,138
Change in working capital, $m
  21
  49
  56
  64
  72
  79
  87
  95
  102
  110
  117
  124
  131
  137
  144
  151
  157
  164
  171
  177
  184
  192
  199
  207
  215
  224
  233
  242
  252
  263
  274
Cash from operations, $m
  150
  104
  145
  192
  245
  306
  373
  447
  528
  615
  709
  800
  906
  1,018
  1,136
  1,259
  1,388
  1,523
  1,664
  1,811
  1,963
  2,121
  2,286
  2,457
  2,635
  2,820
  3,013
  3,213
  3,422
  3,639
  3,865
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -20
  -25
  -31
  -38
  -45
  -53
  -62
  -72
  -83
  -94
  -107
  -119
  -133
  -147
  -162
  -178
  -195
  -212
  -229
  -248
  -267
  -287
  -308
  -329
  -352
  -375
  -399
  -425
  -451
  -478
New CAPEX, $m
  -43
  -89
  -104
  -118
  -132
  -147
  -161
  -175
  -189
  -202
  -216
  -229
  -241
  -254
  -266
  -278
  -290
  -302
  -315
  -327
  -340
  -354
  -368
  -382
  -397
  -413
  -429
  -447
  -465
  -484
  -505
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -237
  -109
  -129
  -149
  -170
  -192
  -214
  -237
  -261
  -285
  -310
  -336
  -360
  -387
  -413
  -440
  -468
  -497
  -527
  -556
  -588
  -621
  -655
  -690
  -726
  -765
  -804
  -846
  -890
  -935
  -983
Free cash flow, $m
  -87
  -5
  16
  43
  76
  114
  159
  210
  267
  330
  399
  465
  546
  631
  723
  819
  920
  1,026
  1,138
  1,254
  1,375
  1,501
  1,631
  1,768
  1,909
  2,056
  2,208
  2,367
  2,532
  2,703
  2,882
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  138
  171
  198
  225
  252
  280
  307
  334
  361
  386
  412
  436
  460
  484
  507
  531
  554
  577
  601
  625
  650
  675
  702
  729
  758
  788
  820
  853
  888
  925
  964
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  13
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  138
  184
  198
  225
  252
  280
  307
  334
  361
  386
  412
  436
  460
  484
  507
  531
  554
  577
  601
  625
  650
  675
  702
  729
  758
  788
  820
  853
  888
  925
  964
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  51
  179
  214
  268
  328
  394
  466
  544
  627
  716
  811
  901
  1,006
  1,115
  1,230
  1,350
  1,474
  1,604
  1,739
  1,879
  2,024
  2,176
  2,333
  2,497
  2,667
  2,844
  3,028
  3,220
  3,420
  3,628
  3,845
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -106
  -109
  -125
  -142
  -159
  -177
  -194
  -211
  -228
  -244
  -260
  -275
  -291
  -306
  -320
  -335
  -350
  -364
  -379
  -395
  -410
  -426
  -443
  -460
  -479
  -498
  -517
  -538
  -560
  -584
  -608
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  70
  89
  126
  169
  218
  272
  333
  400
  472
  551
  626
  715
  810
  910
  1,014
  1,124
  1,239
  1,359
  1,484
  1,614
  1,749
  1,890
  2,036
  2,188
  2,346
  2,511
  2,681
  2,859
  3,044
  3,237
Discount rate, %
 
  6.90
  7.25
  7.61
  7.99
  8.39
  8.81
  9.25
  9.71
  10.19
  10.70
  11.24
  11.80
  12.39
  13.01
  13.66
  14.34
  15.06
  15.81
  16.61
  17.44
  18.31
  19.22
  20.18
  21.19
  22.25
  23.37
  24.53
  25.76
  27.05
  28.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  66
  77
  101
  124
  145
  164
  179
  191
  197
  199
  194
  188
  177
  164
  149
  132
  114
  97
  80
  65
  51
  39
  30
  22
  15
  11
  7
  5
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6

Premium Brands Holdings Corp is a Canada-based company that, through its subsidiaries, owns a range of specialty food manufacturing and food distribution businesses. The Company's segments include Specialty Foods and Premium Food Distribution. Its family of brands and businesses include Conte Foods, Larosa Foods, McSweeney’s, Direct Plus, OvenPride and Island City Baking. Its Specialty Foods segment consists of the Company’s specialty food manufacturing businesses and includes Harvest, Grimm’s, Freybe, Hygaard, Quality Fast Foods, Hempler’s, Made-Rite Meat Products, Creekside, Stuyver’s, Duso’s, SK Food Group, Deli Chef, SJ Fine Foods, Piller’s, Isernio’s, Expresco and Belmont Meats. The Premium Food Distribution segment consists of the Company’s differentiated distribution and wholesale businesses and includes Centennial Foodservice, B&C Food Distributors, Harlan Fairbanks, Worldsource, E1even, Wescadia, Maximum Seafood, Ocean Miracle, Leadbetter Foods, C&C Packing and Premier Meats.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Premium Brands Holdings Corporation (PBH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 42.6
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book 6.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 19.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 27.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 25.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 48.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 21.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 95.5%
Total Debt to Equity 100.2%
Interest Coverage 7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Return On Total Capital 9.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Return On Equity 18.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Asset Turnover 1.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 18.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.9%
EBITDA Margin 7.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Operating Margin 5.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Net Profit Margin 3.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Effective Tax Rate 27.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.5%
Payout Ratio 62.3%

PBH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PBH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1862 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Premium Brands Holdings Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Premium Brands Holdings Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PBH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 25.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.9%, whose default value for PBH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Premium Brands Holdings Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Premium Brands Holdings Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PBH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $106 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PBH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.9% for Premium Brands Holdings Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Premium Brands Holdings Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PBH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PBH are equal to 19%.

Life of production assets of 17.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Premium Brands Holdings Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PBH is equal to 10.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $426 million for Premium Brands Holdings Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 29.943 million for Premium Brands Holdings Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Premium Brands Holdings Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.0 billion.

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Financial statements of PBH
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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