Intrinsic value of Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. - PEY

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$24.84

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$24.84

 
Intrinsic value

$2.32

 
Up/down potential

-91%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PEY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -8.59
  15.10
  14.09
  13.18
  12.36
  11.63
  10.96
  10.37
  9.83
  9.35
  8.91
  8.52
  8.17
  7.85
  7.57
  7.31
  7.08
  6.87
  6.68
  6.52
  6.36
  6.23
  6.11
  5.99
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.65
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
Revenue, $m
  532
  612
  699
  791
  888
  992
  1,100
  1,215
  1,334
  1,459
  1,589
  1,724
  1,865
  2,011
  2,164
  2,322
  2,486
  2,657
  2,835
  3,019
  3,211
  3,411
  3,620
  3,837
  4,063
  4,299
  4,545
  4,802
  5,070
  5,350
  5,643
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  457
  521
  590
  663
  740
  821
  906
  995
  1,088
  1,185
  1,286
  1,391
  1,500
  1,614
  1,732
  1,855
  1,982
  2,115
  2,252
  2,396
  2,545
  2,700
  2,862
  3,031
  3,207
  3,390
  3,582
  3,782
  3,991
  4,210
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  464
  457
  521
  590
  663
  740
  821
  906
  995
  1,088
  1,185
  1,286
  1,391
  1,500
  1,614
  1,732
  1,855
  1,982
  2,115
  2,252
  2,396
  2,545
  2,700
  2,862
  3,031
  3,207
  3,390
  3,582
  3,782
  3,991
  4,210
Operating income, $m
  67
  156
  177
  201
  226
  252
  280
  309
  339
  371
  404
  438
  474
  511
  550
  590
  631
  675
  720
  767
  816
  866
  919
  975
  1,032
  1,092
  1,154
  1,220
  1,288
  1,359
  1,433
EBITDA, $m
  398
  536
  611
  692
  777
  867
  963
  1,062
  1,167
  1,276
  1,390
  1,508
  1,631
  1,759
  1,892
  2,031
  2,175
  2,324
  2,479
  2,641
  2,809
  2,984
  3,166
  3,356
  3,554
  3,760
  3,975
  4,200
  4,435
  4,680
  4,936
Interest expense (income), $m
  35
  37
  47
  58
  70
  82
  95
  109
  123
  138
  154
  171
  188
  205
  224
  243
  263
  284
  305
  328
  351
  375
  400
  427
  454
  483
  512
  543
  576
  610
  645
Earnings before tax, $m
  154
  118
  130
  143
  156
  170
  184
  200
  215
  232
  249
  267
  286
  305
  326
  347
  368
  391
  415
  439
  465
  491
  519
  548
  578
  609
  642
  676
  712
  749
  788
Tax expense, $m
  42
  32
  35
  38
  42
  46
  50
  54
  58
  63
  67
  72
  77
  82
  88
  94
  99
  106
  112
  119
  125
  133
  140
  148
  156
  164
  173
  183
  192
  202
  213
Net income, $m
  112
  86
  95
  104
  114
  124
  134
  146
  157
  169
  182
  195
  209
  223
  238
  253
  269
  285
  303
  321
  339
  359
  379
  400
  422
  445
  469
  494
  520
  547
  575

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,463
  3,976
  4,536
  5,134
  5,769
  6,440
  7,146
  7,887
  8,662
  9,472
  10,316
  11,195
  12,110
  13,061
  14,049
  15,076
  16,143
  17,253
  18,406
  19,605
  20,853
  22,152
  23,504
  24,913
  26,382
  27,913
  29,511
  31,180
  32,922
  34,742
  36,644
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,461
  3,976
  4,536
  5,134
  5,769
  6,440
  7,146
  7,887
  8,662
  9,472
  10,316
  11,195
  12,110
  13,061
  14,049
  15,076
  16,143
  17,253
  18,406
  19,605
  20,853
  22,152
  23,504
  24,913
  26,382
  27,913
  29,511
  31,180
  32,922
  34,742
  36,644
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
Average production assets, $m
  3,269
  3,763
  4,293
  4,859
  5,460
  6,094
  6,762
  7,464
  8,197
  8,964
  9,762
  10,594
  11,460
  12,360
  13,295
  14,267
  15,277
  16,327
  17,418
  18,553
  19,734
  20,963
  22,243
  23,576
  24,966
  26,415
  27,928
  29,506
  31,155
  32,877
  34,678
Working capital, $m
  -187
  -217
  -248
  -281
  -315
  -352
  -391
  -431
  -474
  -518
  -564
  -612
  -662
  -714
  -768
  -824
  -883
  -943
  -1,006
  -1,072
  -1,140
  -1,211
  -1,285
  -1,362
  -1,442
  -1,526
  -1,613
  -1,705
  -1,800
  -1,899
  -2,003
Total debt, $m
  1,070
  1,355
  1,666
  1,998
  2,350
  2,722
  3,114
  3,525
  3,955
  4,405
  4,873
  5,361
  5,869
  6,397
  6,945
  7,515
  8,108
  8,723
  9,363
  10,029
  10,721
  11,442
  12,193
  12,975
  13,790
  14,640
  15,527
  16,453
  17,420
  18,430
  19,486
Total liabilities, $m
  1,922
  2,207
  2,518
  2,850
  3,202
  3,574
  3,966
  4,377
  4,807
  5,257
  5,725
  6,213
  6,721
  7,249
  7,797
  8,367
  8,960
  9,575
  10,215
  10,881
  11,573
  12,294
  13,045
  13,827
  14,642
  15,492
  16,379
  17,305
  18,272
  19,282
  20,338
Total equity, $m
  1,541
  1,769
  2,019
  2,285
  2,567
  2,866
  3,180
  3,510
  3,855
  4,215
  4,591
  4,982
  5,389
  5,812
  6,252
  6,709
  7,184
  7,677
  8,191
  8,724
  9,280
  9,858
  10,459
  11,086
  11,740
  12,421
  13,133
  13,875
  14,650
  15,460
  16,307
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,463
  3,976
  4,537
  5,135
  5,769
  6,440
  7,146
  7,887
  8,662
  9,472
  10,316
  11,195
  12,110
  13,061
  14,049
  15,076
  16,144
  17,252
  18,406
  19,605
  20,853
  22,152
  23,504
  24,913
  26,382
  27,913
  29,512
  31,180
  32,922
  34,742
  36,645
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.694
  0.770
  0.830
  0.870
  0.920
  0.950
  0.980
  1.000
  1.030
  1.050
  1.060
  1.080
  1.090
  1.100
  1.110
  1.120
  1.130
  1.140
  1.140
  1.150
  1.160
  1.160
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
  1.180
  1.180
  1.190
  1.190
  1.190
  1.190
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  112
  86
  95
  104
  114
  124
  134
  146
  157
  169
  182
  195
  209
  223
  238
  253
  269
  285
  303
  321
  339
  359
  379
  400
  422
  445
  469
  494
  520
  547
  575
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  331
  380
  434
  491
  551
  616
  683
  754
  828
  905
  986
  1,070
  1,158
  1,248
  1,343
  1,441
  1,543
  1,649
  1,759
  1,874
  1,993
  2,117
  2,247
  2,381
  2,522
  2,668
  2,821
  2,980
  3,147
  3,321
  3,503
Funds from operations, $m
  534
  466
  529
  595
  665
  739
  818
  900
  985
  1,075
  1,168
  1,265
  1,366
  1,471
  1,581
  1,694
  1,812
  1,935
  2,062
  2,195
  2,333
  2,476
  2,626
  2,781
  2,944
  3,113
  3,290
  3,474
  3,667
  3,868
  4,078
Change in working capital, $m
  25
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -104
Cash from operations, $m
  509
  574
  559
  628
  700
  776
  856
  940
  1,028
  1,119
  1,214
  1,313
  1,416
  1,523
  1,635
  1,750
  1,870
  1,995
  2,125
  2,260
  2,401
  2,547
  2,699
  2,858
  3,024
  3,197
  3,377
  3,565
  3,762
  3,967
  4,182
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -330
  -380
  -434
  -491
  -551
  -616
  -683
  -754
  -828
  -905
  -986
  -1,070
  -1,158
  -1,248
  -1,343
  -1,441
  -1,543
  -1,649
  -1,759
  -1,874
  -1,993
  -2,117
  -2,247
  -2,381
  -2,522
  -2,668
  -2,821
  -2,980
  -3,147
  -3,321
New CAPEX, $m
  -469
  -494
  -530
  -566
  -601
  -635
  -668
  -701
  -734
  -766
  -799
  -832
  -866
  -900
  -935
  -972
  -1,010
  -1,050
  -1,091
  -1,135
  -1,181
  -1,229
  -1,280
  -1,333
  -1,390
  -1,449
  -1,512
  -1,579
  -1,649
  -1,722
  -1,800
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -490
  -824
  -910
  -1,000
  -1,092
  -1,186
  -1,284
  -1,384
  -1,488
  -1,594
  -1,704
  -1,818
  -1,936
  -2,058
  -2,183
  -2,315
  -2,451
  -2,593
  -2,740
  -2,894
  -3,055
  -3,222
  -3,397
  -3,580
  -3,771
  -3,971
  -4,180
  -4,400
  -4,629
  -4,869
  -5,121
Free cash flow, $m
  19
  -250
  -351
  -372
  -392
  -410
  -428
  -444
  -460
  -475
  -490
  -505
  -519
  -534
  -549
  -565
  -581
  -598
  -615
  -634
  -654
  -675
  -698
  -722
  -747
  -775
  -804
  -834
  -867
  -902
  -939
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  25
  285
  311
  332
  352
  372
  392
  411
  430
  449
  469
  488
  508
  528
  549
  570
  592
  616
  640
  666
  693
  721
  751
  782
  815
  850
  887
  926
  967
  1,010
  1,056
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  180
  194
  289
  306
  322
  336
  350
  363
  375
  386
  397
  408
  419
  429
  440
  452
  463
  476
  489
  502
  517
  532
  549
  567
  586
  606
  628
  651
  676
  702
  730
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  197
  479
  600
  638
  674
  708
  742
  774
  805
  835
  866
  896
  927
  957
  989
  1,022
  1,055
  1,092
  1,129
  1,168
  1,210
  1,253
  1,300
  1,349
  1,401
  1,456
  1,515
  1,577
  1,643
  1,712
  1,786
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  216
  35
  -40
  -40
  -39
  -38
  -36
  -33
  -30
  -26
  -21
  -17
  -12
  -6
  -1
  5
  12
  18
  25
  31
  38
  46
  53
  60
  68
  75
  83
  91
  100
  108
  117
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  83
  -230
  -249
  -266
  -282
  -298
  -314
  -330
  -345
  -360
  -376
  -391
  -407
  -423
  -440
  -457
  -475
  -494
  -513
  -534
  -555
  -578
  -602
  -627
  -654
  -682
  -711
  -742
  -775
  -810
  -847
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  5.60
  5.88
  6.17
  6.48
  6.81
  7.15
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.69
  9.12
  9.58
  10.06
  10.56
  11.09
  11.64
  12.22
  12.84
  13.48
  14.15
  14.86
  15.60
  16.38
  17.20
  18.06
  18.96
  19.91
  20.91
  21.95
  23.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  95.5
  90.0
  85.2
  81.0
  77.2
  73.8
  70.8
  68.1
  65.6
  63.4
  61.4
  59.5
  57.8
  56.2
  54.7
  53.4
  52.1
  50.9
  49.7
  48.7
  47.6
  46.7
  45.7
  44.9
  44.0
  43.2
  42.4
  41.7
  40.9
  40.2

Peyto Exploration & Development Corp., an energy company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas, and natural gas liquids in Canada. The company’s oil and gas properties are located in the Alberta’s Deep Basin. As of December 31, 2015, it had a total proved plus probable reserves of 590 million barrels of oil equivalent. The company was formerly known as Peyto Energy Trust and changed its name to Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. in January 2011. Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. (PEY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 36.5
Price to Sales 7.7
Price to Book 2.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8
Price to Free Cash Flow 102.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -8.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -21%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 69.4%
Total Debt to Equity 69.4%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Return On Total Capital 4.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Return On Equity 7.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 89.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 91.3%
EBITDA Margin 97.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 92.7%
Operating Margin 12.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 28.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.2%
Net Profit Margin 21.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.2%
Effective Tax Rate 27.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.2%
Payout Ratio 191.1%

PEY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PEY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $532 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Peyto Exploration & Development Corp.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Peyto Exploration & Development Corp.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PEY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 15.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.6%, whose default value for PEY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Peyto Exploration & Development Corp., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Peyto Exploration & Development Corp..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PEY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 74.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PEY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Peyto Exploration & Development Corp..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Peyto Exploration & Development Corp.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PEY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PEY are equal to 614.5%.

Life of production assets of 9.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PEY is equal to -35.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1541 million for Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 166.365 million for Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.1 billion.


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