Intrinsic value of Parkland Fuel Corporation - PKI

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$29.61

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$29.61

 
Intrinsic value

$9.04

 
Up/down potential

-69%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PKI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -0.54
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.07
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.00
Revenue, $m
  6,266
  6,586
  6,921
  7,272
  7,641
  8,028
  8,435
  8,861
  9,308
  9,777
  10,270
  10,787
  11,330
  11,900
  12,498
  13,125
  13,784
  14,476
  15,202
  15,965
  16,765
  17,605
  18,488
  19,414
  20,386
  21,407
  22,479
  23,605
  24,786
  26,027
  27,329
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  6,484
  6,811
  7,154
  7,514
  7,892
  8,289
  8,705
  9,141
  9,599
  10,080
  10,529
  11,059
  11,615
  12,199
  12,811
  13,454
  14,130
  14,838
  15,583
  16,364
  17,184
  18,045
  18,949
  19,898
  20,895
  21,941
  23,040
  24,193
  25,404
  26,675
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  6,140
  6,484
  6,811
  7,154
  7,514
  7,892
  8,289
  8,705
  9,141
  9,599
  10,080
  10,529
  11,059
  11,615
  12,199
  12,811
  13,454
  14,130
  14,838
  15,583
  16,364
  17,184
  18,045
  18,949
  19,898
  20,895
  21,941
  23,040
  24,193
  25,404
  26,675
Operating income, $m
  126
  102
  110
  118
  127
  136
  146
  156
  167
  178
  190
  258
  271
  285
  299
  314
  330
  347
  364
  382
  401
  421
  443
  465
  488
  512
  538
  565
  593
  623
  654
EBITDA, $m
  229
  219
  230
  242
  254
  267
  281
  295
  310
  326
  342
  359
  377
  396
  416
  437
  459
  482
  506
  531
  558
  586
  615
  646
  679
  713
  748
  786
  825
  866
  910
Interest expense (income), $m
  27
  34
  38
  42
  46
  50
  55
  59
  64
  69
  75
  81
  87
  93
  99
  106
  114
  121
  129
  138
  147
  156
  166
  176
  187
  198
  210
  222
  235
  249
  263
Earnings before tax, $m
  67
  68
  72
  76
  81
  86
  91
  97
  103
  109
  115
  178
  185
  192
  200
  208
  216
  225
  235
  244
  255
  265
  277
  289
  301
  314
  328
  343
  358
  374
  391
Tax expense, $m
  20
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
Net income, $m
  47
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  130
  135
  140
  146
  152
  158
  164
  171
  178
  186
  194
  202
  211
  220
  230
  240
  250
  261
  273
  285

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  26
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,562
  2,665
  2,801
  2,943
  3,092
  3,249
  3,413
  3,586
  3,767
  3,957
  4,156
  4,366
  4,585
  4,816
  5,058
  5,312
  5,578
  5,858
  6,152
  6,461
  6,785
  7,125
  7,482
  7,857
  8,250
  8,663
  9,097
  9,553
  10,031
  10,533
  11,060
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,536
  2,665
  2,801
  2,943
  3,092
  3,249
  3,413
  3,586
  3,767
  3,957
  4,156
  4,366
  4,585
  4,816
  5,058
  5,312
  5,578
  5,858
  6,152
  6,461
  6,785
  7,125
  7,482
  7,857
  8,250
  8,663
  9,097
  9,553
  10,031
  10,533
  11,060
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.471
  2.471
  2.471
  2.471
  2.471
  2.471
  2.471
  2.471
  2.471
  2.471
  2.471
  2.471
  2.471
  2.471
  2.471
  2.471
  2.471
  2.471
  2.471
  2.471
  2.471
  2.471
  2.471
  2.471
  2.471
  2.471
  2.471
  2.471
  2.471
  2.471
  2.471
Average production assets, $m
  726
  764
  803
  844
  886
  931
  978
  1,028
  1,080
  1,134
  1,191
  1,251
  1,314
  1,380
  1,450
  1,523
  1,599
  1,679
  1,763
  1,852
  1,945
  2,042
  2,145
  2,252
  2,365
  2,483
  2,608
  2,738
  2,875
  3,019
  3,170
Working capital, $m
  91
  382
  401
  422
  443
  466
  489
  514
  540
  567
  596
  626
  657
  690
  725
  761
  799
  840
  882
  926
  972
  1,021
  1,072
  1,126
  1,182
  1,242
  1,304
  1,369
  1,438
  1,510
  1,585
Total debt, $m
  837
  899
  992
  1,089
  1,191
  1,298
  1,410
  1,528
  1,652
  1,782
  1,918
  2,061
  2,211
  2,368
  2,533
  2,707
  2,889
  3,080
  3,281
  3,492
  3,713
  3,945
  4,189
  4,445
  4,714
  4,996
  5,292
  5,603
  5,930
  6,273
  6,633
Total liabilities, $m
  1,758
  1,820
  1,913
  2,010
  2,112
  2,219
  2,331
  2,449
  2,573
  2,703
  2,839
  2,982
  3,132
  3,289
  3,454
  3,628
  3,810
  4,001
  4,202
  4,413
  4,634
  4,866
  5,110
  5,366
  5,635
  5,917
  6,213
  6,524
  6,851
  7,194
  7,554
Total equity, $m
  804
  845
  888
  933
  980
  1,030
  1,082
  1,137
  1,194
  1,254
  1,318
  1,384
  1,454
  1,527
  1,603
  1,684
  1,768
  1,857
  1,950
  2,048
  2,151
  2,259
  2,372
  2,491
  2,615
  2,746
  2,884
  3,028
  3,180
  3,339
  3,506
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,562
  2,665
  2,801
  2,943
  3,092
  3,249
  3,413
  3,586
  3,767
  3,957
  4,157
  4,366
  4,586
  4,816
  5,057
  5,312
  5,578
  5,858
  6,152
  6,461
  6,785
  7,125
  7,482
  7,857
  8,250
  8,663
  9,097
  9,552
  10,031
  10,533
  11,060
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.041
  1.060
  1.120
  1.170
  1.220
  1.260
  1.300
  1.340
  1.380
  1.420
  1.460
  1.490
  1.520
  1.550
  1.580
  1.610
  1.630
  1.660
  1.680
  1.700
  1.730
  1.750
  1.770
  1.780
  1.800
  1.820
  1.840
  1.850
  1.860
  1.880
  1.890
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.307
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  47
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  130
  135
  140
  146
  152
  158
  164
  171
  178
  186
  194
  202
  211
  220
  230
  240
  250
  261
  273
  285
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  103
  118
  121
  124
  127
  131
  135
  139
  143
  147
  152
  101
  106
  111
  117
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
  157
  165
  173
  182
  191
  200
  210
  221
  232
  243
  256
Funds from operations, $m
  183
  167
  173
  180
  187
  194
  202
  210
  218
  227
  236
  231
  241
  251
  263
  274
  287
  300
  313
  328
  343
  358
  375
  392
  411
  430
  450
  471
  493
  516
  541
Change in working capital, $m
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
Cash from operations, $m
  165
  181
  154
  159
  165
  172
  178
  185
  192
  200
  207
  201
  209
  218
  228
  238
  249
  260
  271
  284
  296
  310
  324
  339
  354
  371
  388
  406
  425
  445
  465
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -173
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -210
  -221
  -232
  -243
New CAPEX, $m
  -95
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -191
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -190
  -199
  -209
  -219
  -230
  -242
  -254
  -267
  -280
  -295
  -309
  -324
  -341
  -358
  -376
  -394
Free cash flow, $m
  -26
  84
  53
  54
  55
  55
  56
  57
  57
  58
  59
  45
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  54
  55
  57
  58
  60
  61
  63
  65
  67
  69
  71
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  88
  88
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
  118
  124
  130
  136
  143
  150
  157
  165
  174
  182
  191
  201
  211
  221
  232
  244
  256
  269
  282
  296
  311
  327
  343
  360
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  93
  88
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
  118
  124
  130
  136
  143
  150
  157
  165
  174
  182
  191
  201
  211
  221
  232
  244
  256
  269
  282
  296
  311
  327
  343
  360
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  68
  172
  146
  151
  156
  162
  168
  174
  181
  188
  195
  187
  195
  204
  213
  222
  232
  242
  252
  264
  275
  288
  301
  314
  329
  344
  359
  376
  393
  412
  431
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  9
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -144
  -152
  -159
  -167
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  131
  103
  106
  109
  112
  116
  120
  124
  128
  132
  121
  126
  131
  136
  141
  147
  153
  159
  166
  173
  180
  188
  195
  204
  213
  222
  232
  242
  252
  264
Discount rate, %
 
  8.10
  8.51
  8.93
  9.38
  9.85
  10.34
  10.85
  11.40
  11.97
  12.57
  13.19
  13.85
  14.55
  15.27
  16.04
  16.84
  17.68
  18.57
  19.49
  20.47
  21.49
  22.57
  23.69
  24.88
  26.12
  27.43
  28.80
  30.24
  31.75
  33.34
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  122
  87
  82
  76
  70
  64
  58
  52
  46
  40
  31
  27
  22
  19
  15
  12
  10
  7
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Parkland Fuel Corporation operates as an independent marketer and distributor of fuels and lubricants in Canada and the United States. The company operates through Retails Fuels, Commercial Fuels, Parkland USA, and Supply and Wholesale segments. The Retails Fuels segment supplies and supports a network of 1,075 retail gas stations under the Fas Gas Plus, Race Trac, Pioneer, Esso, and Chevron brand names. The Commercial Fuels segment offers bulk fuel, propane, heating oil, lubricants, agricultural inputs, and other related products and services to commercial, industrial, and residential customers in various industries, such as oil and gas, residential propane and heating fuel, construction, mining, forestry, fishing, and transportation. It provides its products under the Bluewave Energy, Columbia Fuels, Sparlings Propane, and Island Petroleum brands. The Parkland USA segment supplies and distributes refined petroleum products through third party rail and highway carriers; owns and operates retail service stations under the Superpumper brand name; and delivers lubricants. It has 40,000 barrels of terminal storage capacity; and owns a fleet of approximately 75 trucks which deliver wholesale fuels and commercial lubricants. It serves industrial and wholesale customers, retailers, small resellers, and commercial operators. The Supply and Wholesale segment engages in the wholesale of gas and diesel, gasoline blend stock, and drilling fluids; crude, asphalt, and fuel oils, such as gas oils; liquid petroleum gas, including propane, butane, condensate, and natural gas liquid mixes; and renewable fuels comprising ethanol and biodiesel. This segment has approximately 227,000 barrels of storage capacity at its Bowden, Alberta terminal; approximately 282,000 barrels of storage capacity in Quebec; and approximately 782,000 barrels of additional storage capacity in North America. Parkland Fuel Corporation was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Red Deer, Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Parkland Fuel Corporation (PKI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 60.6
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 3.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 40.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 30.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 11.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.5
LT Debt to Equity 66.9%
Total Debt to Equity 104.1%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Return On Total Capital 3.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Return On Equity 5.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Asset Turnover 2.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 11.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
EBITDA Margin 3.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Operating Margin 2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Net Profit Margin 0.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Effective Tax Rate 29.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.6%
Payout Ratio 136.2%

PKI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PKI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6266 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Parkland Fuel Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Parkland Fuel Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PKI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.1%, whose default value for PKI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Parkland Fuel Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Parkland Fuel Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PKI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 98.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PKI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.2% for Parkland Fuel Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Parkland Fuel Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PKI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PKI are equal to 11.6%.

Life of production assets of 12.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Parkland Fuel Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PKI is equal to 5.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $804 million for Parkland Fuel Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 95.173 million for Parkland Fuel Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Parkland Fuel Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.8 billion.


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