Intrinsic value of PrairieSky Royalty Ltd. - PSK

Previous Close

$32.80

  Intrinsic Value

$2.02

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-94%

Previous close

$32.80

 
Intrinsic value

$2.02

 
Up/down potential

-94%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of PSK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 7.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.19
  22.00
  20.30
  18.77
  17.39
  16.15
  15.04
  14.03
  13.13
  12.32
  11.59
  10.93
  10.33
  9.80
  9.32
  8.89
  8.50
  8.15
  7.84
  7.55
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.67
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
Revenue, $m
  224
  273
  329
  390
  458
  532
  612
  698
  790
  887
  990
  1,099
  1,212
  1,331
  1,455
  1,584
  1,719
  1,859
  2,005
  2,156
  2,313
  2,477
  2,647
  2,823
  3,007
  3,198
  3,397
  3,604
  3,820
  4,045
  4,280
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  157
  176
  197
  220
  246
  273
  303
  334
  368
  403
  377
  416
  457
  499
  544
  590
  638
  688
  740
  794
  850
  909
  969
  1,032
  1,098
  1,166
  1,237
  1,311
  1,389
  1,469
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  207
  157
  176
  197
  220
  246
  273
  303
  334
  368
  403
  377
  416
  457
  499
  544
  590
  638
  688
  740
  794
  850
  909
  969
  1,032
  1,098
  1,166
  1,237
  1,311
  1,389
  1,469
Operating income, $m
  18
  116
  153
  193
  238
  287
  339
  396
  456
  520
  587
  721
  796
  874
  955
  1,040
  1,129
  1,221
  1,316
  1,416
  1,519
  1,627
  1,738
  1,854
  1,975
  2,100
  2,231
  2,367
  2,509
  2,656
  2,811
EBITDA, $m
  181
  296
  356
  423
  496
  577
  663
  756
  856
  961
  1,072
  1,190
  1,313
  1,441
  1,576
  1,716
  1,861
  2,013
  2,171
  2,335
  2,505
  2,682
  2,866
  3,058
  3,257
  3,463
  3,679
  3,903
  4,137
  4,381
  4,635
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  2
  4
  6
  9
  11
  14
  17
  21
  24
  28
  32
  36
  41
  45
  50
  55
  60
  65
  71
  77
  83
  89
  95
  102
  109
  116
  124
  132
  140
Earnings before tax, $m
  20
  116
  151
  189
  232
  278
  328
  381
  438
  499
  563
  693
  764
  838
  915
  995
  1,079
  1,166
  1,256
  1,351
  1,448
  1,550
  1,655
  1,765
  1,879
  1,998
  2,122
  2,250
  2,385
  2,524
  2,670
Tax expense, $m
  0
  31
  41
  51
  63
  75
  89
  103
  118
  135
  152
  187
  206
  226
  247
  269
  291
  315
  339
  365
  391
  418
  447
  477
  507
  539
  573
  608
  644
  682
  721
Net income, $m
  20
  85
  110
  138
  169
  203
  239
  278
  320
  364
  411
  506
  558
  612
  668
  726
  788
  851
  917
  986
  1,057
  1,131
  1,208
  1,289
  1,372
  1,459
  1,549
  1,643
  1,741
  1,843
  1,949

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  34
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,770
  3,333
  4,009
  4,762
  5,590
  6,493
  7,469
  8,518
  9,636
  10,823
  12,077
  13,397
  14,781
  16,230
  17,743
  19,320
  20,962
  22,671
  24,447
  26,293
  28,212
  30,205
  32,277
  34,432
  36,672
  39,003
  41,429
  43,956
  46,588
  49,332
  52,193
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,736
  3,333
  4,009
  4,762
  5,590
  6,493
  7,469
  8,518
  9,636
  10,823
  12,077
  13,397
  14,781
  16,230
  17,743
  19,320
  20,962
  22,671
  24,447
  26,293
  28,212
  30,205
  32,277
  34,432
  36,672
  39,003
  41,429
  43,956
  46,588
  49,332
  52,193
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.082
  0.082
  0.082
  0.082
  0.082
  0.082
  0.082
  0.082
  0.082
  0.082
  0.082
  0.082
  0.082
  0.082
  0.082
  0.082
  0.082
  0.082
  0.082
  0.082
  0.082
  0.082
  0.082
  0.082
  0.082
  0.082
  0.082
  0.082
  0.082
  0.082
  0.082
Average production assets, $m
  888
  1,083
  1,303
  1,548
  1,817
  2,111
  2,428
  2,769
  3,132
  3,518
  3,926
  4,355
  4,805
  5,276
  5,767
  6,280
  6,814
  7,369
  7,946
  8,547
  9,170
  9,818
  10,492
  11,192
  11,920
  12,678
  13,466
  14,288
  15,143
  16,035
  16,965
Working capital, $m
  44
  12
  15
  18
  21
  24
  28
  31
  36
  40
  45
  49
  55
  60
  65
  71
  77
  84
  90
  97
  104
  111
  119
  127
  135
  144
  153
  162
  172
  182
  193
Total debt, $m
  0
  52
  110
  175
  246
  323
  407
  498
  594
  696
  804
  917
  1,036
  1,161
  1,291
  1,427
  1,568
  1,715
  1,867
  2,026
  2,191
  2,363
  2,541
  2,726
  2,919
  3,119
  3,328
  3,545
  3,772
  4,008
  4,254
Total liabilities, $m
  235
  287
  345
  410
  481
  558
  642
  733
  829
  931
  1,039
  1,152
  1,271
  1,396
  1,526
  1,662
  1,803
  1,950
  2,102
  2,261
  2,426
  2,598
  2,776
  2,961
  3,154
  3,354
  3,563
  3,780
  4,007
  4,243
  4,489
Total equity, $m
  2,535
  3,046
  3,664
  4,352
  5,109
  5,935
  6,827
  7,785
  8,807
  9,892
  11,038
  12,245
  13,510
  14,834
  16,217
  17,659
  19,160
  20,721
  22,345
  24,032
  25,785
  27,608
  29,502
  31,471
  33,518
  35,649
  37,866
  40,175
  42,581
  45,089
  47,705
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,770
  3,333
  4,009
  4,762
  5,590
  6,493
  7,469
  8,518
  9,636
  10,823
  12,077
  13,397
  14,781
  16,230
  17,743
  19,321
  20,963
  22,671
  24,447
  26,293
  28,211
  30,206
  32,278
  34,432
  36,672
  39,003
  41,429
  43,955
  46,588
  49,332
  52,194
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.020
  0.030
  0.040
  0.050
  0.050
  0.060
  0.060
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  20
  85
  110
  138
  169
  203
  239
  278
  320
  364
  411
  506
  558
  612
  668
  726
  788
  851
  917
  986
  1,057
  1,131
  1,208
  1,289
  1,372
  1,459
  1,549
  1,643
  1,741
  1,843
  1,949
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  163
  180
  203
  230
  258
  290
  324
  361
  400
  441
  485
  468
  517
  567
  620
  675
  733
  792
  854
  919
  986
  1,056
  1,128
  1,203
  1,282
  1,363
  1,448
  1,536
  1,628
  1,724
  1,824
Funds from operations, $m
  213
  265
  313
  368
  428
  493
  563
  639
  720
  806
  896
  974
  1,074
  1,179
  1,288
  1,402
  1,520
  1,644
  1,772
  1,905
  2,043
  2,187
  2,337
  2,492
  2,654
  2,822
  2,997
  3,179
  3,369
  3,567
  3,774
Change in working capital, $m
  8
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
Cash from operations, $m
  205
  262
  311
  365
  425
  490
  560
  635
  716
  801
  891
  969
  1,069
  1,173
  1,282
  1,396
  1,514
  1,637
  1,765
  1,898
  2,036
  2,180
  2,329
  2,484
  2,645
  2,813
  2,988
  3,170
  3,359
  3,557
  3,763
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -95
  -116
  -140
  -166
  -195
  -227
  -261
  -298
  -337
  -378
  -422
  -468
  -517
  -567
  -620
  -675
  -733
  -792
  -854
  -919
  -986
  -1,056
  -1,128
  -1,203
  -1,282
  -1,363
  -1,448
  -1,536
  -1,628
  -1,724
New CAPEX, $m
  -138
  -195
  -220
  -245
  -269
  -294
  -317
  -341
  -364
  -386
  -408
  -429
  -450
  -471
  -492
  -513
  -534
  -555
  -577
  -600
  -624
  -648
  -674
  -700
  -728
  -758
  -789
  -821
  -856
  -892
  -930
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -154
  -290
  -336
  -385
  -435
  -489
  -544
  -602
  -662
  -723
  -786
  -851
  -918
  -988
  -1,059
  -1,133
  -1,209
  -1,288
  -1,369
  -1,454
  -1,543
  -1,634
  -1,730
  -1,828
  -1,931
  -2,040
  -2,152
  -2,269
  -2,392
  -2,520
  -2,654
Free cash flow, $m
  51
  -28
  -25
  -20
  -11
  1
  16
  33
  55
  79
  106
  118
  151
  186
  223
  263
  305
  349
  395
  443
  494
  546
  600
  656
  714
  774
  836
  901
  967
  1,037
  1,109
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  52
  58
  65
  71
  78
  84
  90
  96
  102
  108
  113
  119
  125
  130
  136
  141
  147
  153
  159
  165
  171
  178
  185
  193
  200
  209
  217
  226
  236
  246
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -26
  460
  508
  549
  588
  622
  653
  680
  702
  721
  735
  700
  708
  713
  715
  715
  713
  710
  706
  702
  696
  691
  685
  680
  676
  672
  669
  666
  665
  665
  666
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -26
  512
  566
  614
  659
  700
  737
  770
  798
  823
  843
  813
  827
  838
  845
  851
  854
  857
  859
  861
  861
  862
  863
  865
  869
  872
  878
  883
  891
  901
  912
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  25
  483
  541
  595
  648
  701
  753
  803
  853
  901
  949
  932
  978
  1,023
  1,068
  1,114
  1,160
  1,207
  1,254
  1,304
  1,355
  1,408
  1,463
  1,521
  1,582
  1,646
  1,713
  1,784
  1,859
  1,938
  2,021
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  175
  -545
  -618
  -688
  -757
  -825
  -892
  -958
  -1,022
  -1,085
  -1,146
  -1,206
  -1,265
  -1,324
  -1,383
  -1,442
  -1,501
  -1,562
  -1,624
  -1,687
  -1,753
  -1,822
  -1,894
  -1,969
  -2,048
  -2,130
  -2,218
  -2,309
  -2,406
  -2,508
  -2,616
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  34
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -28
  -77
  -93
  -109
  -125
  -140
  -155
  -169
  -184
  -197
  -274
  -288
  -301
  -314
  -328
  -341
  -355
  -369
  -384
  -399
  -414
  -431
  -448
  -466
  -484
  -504
  -525
  -547
  -570
  -595
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -27
  -71
  -81
  -90
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -106
  -105
  -104
  -130
  -123
  -114
  -106
  -96
  -87
  -77
  -68
  -59
  -51
  -43
  -36
  -29
  -24
  -19
  -15
  -11
  -8
  -6
  -4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  94.3
  89.4
  85.3
  81.7
  78.5
  75.8
  73.4
  71.3
  69.4
  67.8
  66.4
  65.2
  64.1
  63.1
  62.2
  61.4
  60.6
  60.0
  59.4
  58.8
  58.3
  57.8
  57.4
  57.0
  56.6
  56.3
  56.0
  55.7
  55.4
  55.1

PrairieSky Royalty Ltd. is a Canada-based company, which holds a portfolio of fee simple mineral title, and oil and gas royalty interests in Canada. The Company's properties are located in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's assets include the Fee Lands, encompassing approximately 7.8 million acres; the GORR Interests, encompassing approximately 6.3 million acres of the GORR Lands; the GRT Interests, encompassing approximately 0.2 million acres of the GRT Lands; approximately 0.2 million acres of Crown Interest Lands primarily in Alberta, and the Seismic License to certain seismic data of Encana Corporation, encompassing approximately 43,000 kilometers of two dimensional seismic and over 13,000 square kilometers of three dimensional seismic. The Fee Lands are predominantly located in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin in the provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  PrairieSky Royalty Ltd. (PSK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 373.9
Price to Sales 33.4
Price to Book 3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 36.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 111.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -81.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Return On Total Capital 0.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Return On Equity 0.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 81.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 84.6%
Operating Margin 7.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 41.3%
Net Profit Margin 8.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.5%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Payout Ratio 910%

PSK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PSK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $224 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by PrairieSky Royalty Ltd.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of PrairieSky Royalty Ltd.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PSK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 22% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PSK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of PrairieSky Royalty Ltd., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of PrairieSky Royalty Ltd..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PSK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 62.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PSK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for PrairieSky Royalty Ltd..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for PrairieSky Royalty Ltd.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PSK stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PSK are equal to 396.4%.

Life of production assets of 9.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in PrairieSky Royalty Ltd. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PSK is equal to 4.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2535 million for PrairieSky Royalty Ltd. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 236.275 million for PrairieSky Royalty Ltd. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of PrairieSky Royalty Ltd. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $7.7 billion.

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Financial statements of PSK
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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