Intrinsic value of TransAlta Renewables Inc. - RNW

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$15.59

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$15.59

 
Intrinsic value

$2.28

 
Up/down potential

-85%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of RNW stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.75
  25.30
  23.27
  21.44
  19.80
  18.32
  16.99
  15.79
  14.71
  13.74
  12.86
  12.08
  11.37
  10.73
  10.16
  9.64
  9.18
  8.76
  8.39
  8.05
  7.74
  7.47
  7.22
  7.00
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
  5.96
Revenue, $m
  259
  325
  400
  486
  582
  689
  806
  933
  1,070
  1,217
  1,374
  1,539
  1,715
  1,899
  2,091
  2,293
  2,504
  2,723
  2,951
  3,189
  3,436
  3,692
  3,959
  4,236
  4,524
  4,823
  5,135
  5,459
  5,796
  6,148
  6,514
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  192
  236
  287
  344
  407
  476
  551
  632
  719
  812
  910
  1,013
  1,122
  1,236
  1,355
  1,480
  1,609
  1,744
  1,885
  2,031
  2,182
  2,340
  2,503
  2,674
  2,851
  3,035
  3,226
  3,426
  3,633
  3,850
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  162
  192
  236
  287
  344
  407
  476
  551
  632
  719
  812
  910
  1,013
  1,122
  1,236
  1,355
  1,480
  1,609
  1,744
  1,885
  2,031
  2,182
  2,340
  2,503
  2,674
  2,851
  3,035
  3,226
  3,426
  3,633
  3,850
Operating income, $m
  97
  133
  164
  199
  238
  282
  329
  382
  438
  498
  562
  630
  701
  777
  855
  938
  1,024
  1,114
  1,207
  1,304
  1,405
  1,510
  1,619
  1,733
  1,850
  1,973
  2,100
  2,233
  2,371
  2,514
  2,664
EBITDA, $m
  176
  232
  286
  347
  416
  492
  576
  667
  765
  870
  982
  1,100
  1,225
  1,357
  1,495
  1,639
  1,789
  1,946
  2,109
  2,279
  2,455
  2,639
  2,829
  3,027
  3,233
  3,447
  3,669
  3,901
  4,142
  4,393
  4,655
Interest expense (income), $m
  46
  51
  74
  100
  129
  162
  199
  239
  283
  331
  381
  435
  493
  553
  616
  683
  752
  825
  901
  979
  1,061
  1,146
  1,235
  1,327
  1,422
  1,522
  1,625
  1,732
  1,844
  1,961
  2,082
Earnings before tax, $m
  22
  81
  90
  99
  109
  119
  130
  142
  154
  167
  180
  194
  209
  224
  239
  255
  272
  289
  306
  325
  344
  364
  384
  406
  428
  451
  475
  500
  527
  554
  582
Tax expense, $m
  21
  22
  24
  27
  29
  32
  35
  38
  42
  45
  49
  52
  56
  60
  65
  69
  73
  78
  83
  88
  93
  98
  104
  110
  116
  122
  128
  135
  142
  150
  157
Net income, $m
  -2
  59
  66
  72
  79
  87
  95
  104
  113
  122
  132
  142
  152
  163
  174
  186
  198
  211
  224
  237
  251
  265
  281
  296
  312
  329
  347
  365
  384
  404
  425

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,841
  4,772
  5,883
  7,144
  8,559
  10,127
  11,847
  13,718
  15,735
  17,897
  20,200
  22,639
  25,214
  27,920
  30,757
  33,723
  36,818
  40,044
  43,402
  46,895
  50,525
  54,298
  58,219
  62,294
  66,530
  70,934
  75,514
  80,280
  85,242
  90,409
  95,794
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,826
  4,772
  5,883
  7,144
  8,559
  10,127
  11,847
  13,718
  15,735
  17,897
  20,200
  22,639
  25,214
  27,920
  30,757
  33,723
  36,818
  40,044
  43,402
  46,895
  50,525
  54,298
  58,219
  62,294
  66,530
  70,934
  75,514
  80,280
  85,242
  90,409
  95,794
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.068
  0.068
  0.068
  0.068
  0.068
  0.068
  0.068
  0.068
  0.068
  0.068
  0.068
  0.068
  0.068
  0.068
  0.068
  0.068
  0.068
  0.068
  0.068
  0.068
  0.068
  0.068
  0.068
  0.068
  0.068
  0.068
  0.068
  0.068
  0.068
  0.068
  0.068
Average production assets, $m
  1,852
  2,321
  2,861
  3,474
  4,162
  4,924
  5,761
  6,670
  7,652
  8,703
  9,822
  11,009
  12,261
  13,577
  14,956
  16,398
  17,904
  19,472
  21,105
  22,803
  24,569
  26,404
  28,310
  30,292
  32,351
  34,493
  36,720
  39,038
  41,450
  43,963
  46,582
Working capital, $m
  -428
  -467
  -576
  -700
  -838
  -992
  -1,160
  -1,343
  -1,541
  -1,752
  -1,978
  -2,217
  -2,469
  -2,734
  -3,012
  -3,302
  -3,605
  -3,921
  -4,250
  -4,592
  -4,947
  -5,317
  -5,701
  -6,100
  -6,515
  -6,946
  -7,394
  -7,861
  -8,347
  -8,853
  -9,380
Total debt, $m
  1,042
  1,471
  1,992
  2,584
  3,247
  3,983
  4,789
  5,667
  6,613
  7,627
  8,707
  9,851
  11,058
  12,327
  13,658
  15,049
  16,501
  18,014
  19,589
  21,227
  22,929
  24,699
  26,538
  28,449
  30,435
  32,501
  34,649
  36,884
  39,211
  41,635
  44,161
Total liabilities, $m
  1,809
  2,238
  2,759
  3,351
  4,014
  4,750
  5,556
  6,434
  7,380
  8,394
  9,474
  10,618
  11,825
  13,094
  14,425
  15,816
  17,268
  18,781
  20,356
  21,994
  23,696
  25,466
  27,305
  29,216
  31,202
  33,268
  35,416
  37,651
  39,978
  42,402
  44,928
Total equity, $m
  2,032
  2,534
  3,124
  3,794
  4,545
  5,377
  6,291
  7,284
  8,356
  9,503
  10,726
  12,022
  13,388
  14,825
  16,332
  17,907
  19,550
  21,263
  23,046
  24,901
  26,829
  28,832
  30,915
  33,078
  35,327
  37,666
  40,098
  42,629
  45,263
  48,007
  50,867
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,841
  4,772
  5,883
  7,145
  8,559
  10,127
  11,847
  13,718
  15,736
  17,897
  20,200
  22,640
  25,213
  27,919
  30,757
  33,723
  36,818
  40,044
  43,402
  46,895
  50,525
  54,298
  58,220
  62,294
  66,529
  70,934
  75,514
  80,280
  85,241
  90,409
  95,795
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.513
  0.580
  0.640
  0.680
  0.710
  0.740
  0.760
  0.780
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.820
  0.830
  0.830
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.850
  0.850
  0.850
  0.850
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.870
  0.870
  0.870
  0.870
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.527
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -2
  59
  66
  72
  79
  87
  95
  104
  113
  122
  132
  142
  152
  163
  174
  186
  198
  211
  224
  237
  251
  265
  281
  296
  312
  329
  347
  365
  384
  404
  425
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  79
  99
  122
  148
  178
  210
  246
  285
  327
  372
  420
  470
  524
  580
  639
  701
  765
  832
  902
  975
  1,050
  1,128
  1,210
  1,295
  1,383
  1,474
  1,569
  1,668
  1,771
  1,879
  1,991
Funds from operations, $m
  289
  159
  188
  221
  257
  298
  341
  389
  440
  494
  551
  612
  676
  743
  814
  887
  963
  1,043
  1,126
  1,212
  1,301
  1,394
  1,490
  1,591
  1,695
  1,803
  1,916
  2,033
  2,156
  2,283
  2,416
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  -94
  -109
  -124
  -139
  -154
  -168
  -183
  -198
  -212
  -225
  -239
  -252
  -265
  -278
  -290
  -303
  -316
  -329
  -342
  -356
  -369
  -384
  -399
  -415
  -431
  -449
  -467
  -486
  -506
  -527
Cash from operations, $m
  282
  444
  297
  344
  396
  451
  510
  572
  637
  706
  777
  851
  928
  1,008
  1,091
  1,177
  1,266
  1,359
  1,454
  1,554
  1,656
  1,763
  1,874
  1,990
  2,110
  2,235
  2,365
  2,500
  2,642
  2,789
  2,943
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -79
  -99
  -122
  -148
  -178
  -210
  -246
  -285
  -327
  -372
  -420
  -470
  -524
  -580
  -639
  -701
  -765
  -832
  -902
  -975
  -1,050
  -1,128
  -1,210
  -1,295
  -1,383
  -1,474
  -1,569
  -1,668
  -1,771
  -1,879
New CAPEX, $m
  -15
  -469
  -540
  -613
  -688
  -762
  -837
  -910
  -981
  -1,051
  -1,120
  -1,186
  -1,252
  -1,316
  -1,379
  -1,442
  -1,505
  -1,569
  -1,633
  -1,698
  -1,765
  -1,835
  -1,907
  -1,981
  -2,060
  -2,141
  -2,227
  -2,318
  -2,413
  -2,513
  -2,619
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -241
  -548
  -639
  -735
  -836
  -940
  -1,047
  -1,156
  -1,266
  -1,378
  -1,492
  -1,606
  -1,722
  -1,840
  -1,959
  -2,081
  -2,206
  -2,334
  -2,465
  -2,600
  -2,740
  -2,885
  -3,035
  -3,191
  -3,355
  -3,524
  -3,701
  -3,887
  -4,081
  -4,284
  -4,498
Free cash flow, $m
  41
  -104
  -342
  -391
  -440
  -489
  -537
  -584
  -629
  -673
  -715
  -755
  -794
  -832
  -868
  -904
  -940
  -975
  -1,011
  -1,047
  -1,083
  -1,121
  -1,161
  -1,202
  -1,244
  -1,289
  -1,337
  -1,387
  -1,439
  -1,495
  -1,554
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  9
  444
  521
  592
  663
  735
  807
  877
  946
  1,014
  1,080
  1,144
  1,207
  1,269
  1,330
  1,391
  1,452
  1,513
  1,575
  1,638
  1,703
  1,770
  1,839
  1,911
  1,986
  2,065
  2,148
  2,235
  2,327
  2,424
  2,526
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  162
  162
  411
  470
  528
  586
  644
  700
  754
  807
  857
  906
  953
  999
  1,044
  1,088
  1,132
  1,175
  1,219
  1,263
  1,309
  1,355
  1,404
  1,454
  1,507
  1,562
  1,621
  1,682
  1,747
  1,816
  1,888
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  166
  606
  932
  1,062
  1,191
  1,321
  1,451
  1,577
  1,700
  1,821
  1,937
  2,050
  2,160
  2,268
  2,374
  2,479
  2,584
  2,688
  2,794
  2,901
  3,012
  3,125
  3,243
  3,365
  3,493
  3,627
  3,769
  3,917
  4,074
  4,240
  4,414
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  207
  340
  178
  200
  223
  246
  270
  293
  317
  341
  365
  389
  413
  438
  462
  487
  512
  538
  564
  591
  619
  648
  678
  709
  742
  776
  811
  849
  888
  929
  971
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -43
  -502
  -590
  -670
  -751
  -833
  -913
  -993
  -1,071
  -1,148
  -1,223
  -1,296
  -1,367
  -1,437
  -1,506
  -1,575
  -1,644
  -1,713
  -1,783
  -1,855
  -1,928
  -2,004
  -2,082
  -2,164
  -2,249
  -2,338
  -2,432
  -2,531
  -2,635
  -2,744
  -2,859
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  6.30
  6.62
  6.95
  7.29
  7.66
  8.04
  8.44
  8.86
  9.31
  9.77
  10.26
  10.78
  11.31
  11.88
  12.47
  13.10
  13.75
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.72
  17.55
  18.43
  19.35
  20.32
  21.33
  22.40
  23.52
  24.70
  25.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  95.6
  87.3
  80.2
  74.2
  69.0
  64.5
  60.5
  57.1
  54.0
  51.3
  48.9
  46.8
  44.8
  43.0
  41.4
  39.9
  38.6
  37.3
  36.2
  35.1
  34.1
  33.2
  32.3
  31.4
  30.6
  29.9
  29.2
  28.5
  27.8
  27.2

TransAlta Renewables Inc. develops, owns, and operates renewable power generation facilities. The company’s portfolio consists of wind, hydro, and gas facilities. As of February, 11, 2016, it owned 18 wind facilities, 13 hydroelectric facilities, 8 natural gas generation facilities, and 1 natural gas pipeline comprising an ownership interest of 2,441 MW of net generating capacity located in the provinces of British Columbia, Alberta, Ontario, Quebec, and New Brunswick, Canada; the State of Wyoming; and the State of Western Australia. The company was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada. TransAlta Renewables Inc. is a subsidiary of TransAlta Corporation.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  TransAlta Renewables Inc. (RNW)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1746.1
Price to Sales 13.5
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 13.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 66.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -20.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 47.8%
Total Debt to Equity 51.3%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Return On Total Capital -0.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Return On Equity -0.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 91.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 93.3%
EBITDA Margin 56.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 92.3%
Operating Margin 37.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 44.6%
Net Profit Margin -0.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.3%
Effective Tax Rate 95.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 43.4%
Payout Ratio -9700%

RNW stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RNW stock intrinsic value calculation we used $259 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by TransAlta Renewables Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of TransAlta Renewables Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RNW stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 25.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.3%, whose default value for RNW is calculated based on our internal credit rating of TransAlta Renewables Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of TransAlta Renewables Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RNW stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 59.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RNW stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5% for TransAlta Renewables Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for TransAlta Renewables Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RNW stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RNW are equal to 715.1%.

Life of production assets of 23.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in TransAlta Renewables Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RNW is equal to -144%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2032 million for TransAlta Renewables Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 223.072 million for TransAlta Renewables Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of TransAlta Renewables Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.5 billion.


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