Intrinsic value of Saputo Inc. - SAP

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$41.71

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SAP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 16.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.13
  2.20
  2.48
  2.73
  2.96
  3.16
  3.35
  3.51
  3.66
  3.79
  3.92
  4.02
  4.12
  4.21
  4.29
  4.36
  4.42
  4.48
  4.53
  4.58
  4.62
  4.66
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
Revenue, $m
  10,992
  11,234
  11,512
  11,827
  12,177
  12,562
  12,982
  13,438
  13,930
  14,459
  15,025
  15,630
  16,274
  16,959
  17,686
  18,457
  19,273
  20,137
  21,050
  22,014
  23,031
  24,105
  25,236
  26,428
  27,684
  29,006
  30,398
  31,863
  33,405
  35,026
  36,731
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  10,330
  10,581
  10,864
  11,179
  11,526
  11,904
  12,314
  12,757
  13,233
  13,743
  14,067
  14,647
  15,264
  15,918
  16,612
  17,347
  18,124
  18,946
  19,813
  20,729
  21,695
  22,713
  23,786
  24,917
  26,107
  27,360
  28,678
  30,065
  31,525
  33,059
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  10,121
  10,330
  10,581
  10,864
  11,179
  11,526
  11,904
  12,314
  12,757
  13,233
  13,743
  14,067
  14,647
  15,264
  15,918
  16,612
  17,347
  18,124
  18,946
  19,813
  20,729
  21,695
  22,713
  23,786
  24,917
  26,107
  27,360
  28,678
  30,065
  31,525
  33,059
Operating income, $m
  871
  904
  931
  963
  998
  1,036
  1,078
  1,124
  1,173
  1,226
  1,283
  1,562
  1,627
  1,695
  1,768
  1,845
  1,927
  2,013
  2,104
  2,201
  2,302
  2,409
  2,523
  2,642
  2,767
  2,899
  3,039
  3,185
  3,339
  3,501
  3,672
EBITDA, $m
  1,070
  1,235
  1,265
  1,300
  1,338
  1,381
  1,427
  1,477
  1,531
  1,589
  1,652
  1,718
  1,789
  1,864
  1,944
  2,029
  2,119
  2,213
  2,314
  2,420
  2,532
  2,650
  2,774
  2,905
  3,043
  3,188
  3,341
  3,502
  3,672
  3,850
  4,037
Interest expense (income), $m
  64
  56
  58
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  81
  86
  92
  98
  104
  111
  118
  125
  133
  142
  151
  160
  170
  181
  192
  204
  216
  229
  243
  258
  273
  289
  306
Earnings before tax, $m
  871
  848
  873
  902
  933
  968
  1,006
  1,047
  1,092
  1,140
  1,191
  1,465
  1,523
  1,584
  1,650
  1,720
  1,793
  1,871
  1,953
  2,040
  2,132
  2,229
  2,330
  2,438
  2,551
  2,670
  2,796
  2,927
  3,066
  3,212
  3,366
Tax expense, $m
  270
  229
  236
  243
  252
  261
  272
  283
  295
  308
  321
  395
  411
  428
  446
  464
  484
  505
  527
  551
  576
  602
  629
  658
  689
  721
  755
  790
  828
  867
  909
Net income, $m
  601
  619
  637
  658
  681
  707
  735
  765
  797
  832
  869
  1,069
  1,112
  1,157
  1,205
  1,255
  1,309
  1,366
  1,426
  1,489
  1,556
  1,627
  1,701
  1,780
  1,862
  1,949
  2,041
  2,137
  2,238
  2,345
  2,457

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  164
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,172
  7,164
  7,342
  7,543
  7,766
  8,011
  8,280
  8,570
  8,884
  9,221
  9,582
  9,968
  10,379
  10,816
  11,279
  11,771
  12,292
  12,843
  13,425
  14,040
  14,688
  15,373
  16,094
  16,855
  17,656
  18,499
  19,387
  20,321
  21,304
  22,338
  23,425
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  7,008
  7,164
  7,342
  7,543
  7,766
  8,011
  8,280
  8,570
  8,884
  9,221
  9,582
  9,968
  10,379
  10,816
  11,279
  11,771
  12,292
  12,843
  13,425
  14,040
  14,688
  15,373
  16,094
  16,855
  17,656
  18,499
  19,387
  20,321
  21,304
  22,338
  23,425
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.568
  1.568
  1.568
  1.568
  1.568
  1.568
  1.568
  1.568
  1.568
  1.568
  1.568
  1.568
  1.568
  1.568
  1.568
  1.568
  1.568
  1.568
  1.568
  1.568
  1.568
  1.568
  1.568
  1.568
  1.568
  1.568
  1.568
  1.568
  1.568
  1.568
  1.568
Average production assets, $m
  2,626
  2,685
  2,751
  2,827
  2,910
  3,002
  3,103
  3,212
  3,329
  3,456
  3,591
  3,735
  3,889
  4,053
  4,227
  4,411
  4,606
  4,813
  5,031
  5,261
  5,504
  5,761
  6,031
  6,316
  6,616
  6,933
  7,265
  7,615
  7,984
  8,371
  8,779
Working capital, $m
  819
  1,101
  1,128
  1,159
  1,193
  1,231
  1,272
  1,317
  1,365
  1,417
  1,472
  1,532
  1,595
  1,662
  1,733
  1,809
  1,889
  1,973
  2,063
  2,157
  2,257
  2,362
  2,473
  2,590
  2,713
  2,843
  2,979
  3,123
  3,274
  3,433
  3,600
Total debt, $m
  1,631
  1,535
  1,611
  1,697
  1,793
  1,898
  2,013
  2,138
  2,272
  2,417
  2,572
  2,737
  2,913
  3,101
  3,300
  3,511
  3,734
  3,970
  4,220
  4,484
  4,762
  5,056
  5,365
  5,692
  6,035
  6,397
  6,778
  7,179
  7,600
  8,044
  8,510
Total liabilities, $m
  3,171
  3,074
  3,150
  3,236
  3,332
  3,437
  3,552
  3,677
  3,811
  3,956
  4,111
  4,276
  4,452
  4,640
  4,839
  5,050
  5,273
  5,509
  5,759
  6,023
  6,301
  6,595
  6,904
  7,231
  7,574
  7,936
  8,317
  8,718
  9,139
  9,583
  10,049
Total equity, $m
  4,002
  4,091
  4,192
  4,307
  4,434
  4,575
  4,728
  4,894
  5,073
  5,265
  5,471
  5,692
  5,926
  6,176
  6,440
  6,721
  7,019
  7,333
  7,665
  8,017
  8,387
  8,778
  9,190
  9,624
  10,081
  10,563
  11,070
  11,603
  12,165
  12,755
  13,376
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,173
  7,165
  7,342
  7,543
  7,766
  8,012
  8,280
  8,571
  8,884
  9,221
  9,582
  9,968
  10,378
  10,816
  11,279
  11,771
  12,292
  12,842
  13,424
  14,040
  14,688
  15,373
  16,094
  16,855
  17,655
  18,499
  19,387
  20,321
  21,304
  22,338
  23,425
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.408
  0.380
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.610
  0.620
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571
  0.571

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  601
  619
  637
  658
  681
  707
  735
  765
  797
  832
  869
  1,069
  1,112
  1,157
  1,205
  1,255
  1,309
  1,366
  1,426
  1,489
  1,556
  1,627
  1,701
  1,780
  1,862
  1,949
  2,041
  2,137
  2,238
  2,345
  2,457
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  199
  331
  334
  337
  341
  344
  349
  353
  358
  363
  369
  156
  162
  169
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
  219
  229
  240
  251
  263
  276
  289
  303
  317
  333
  349
  366
Funds from operations, $m
  501
  950
  971
  995
  1,022
  1,051
  1,083
  1,118
  1,155
  1,195
  1,238
  1,225
  1,274
  1,326
  1,381
  1,439
  1,501
  1,566
  1,636
  1,709
  1,786
  1,867
  1,953
  2,043
  2,138
  2,238
  2,343
  2,454
  2,571
  2,694
  2,823
Change in working capital, $m
  -346
  24
  27
  31
  34
  38
  41
  45
  48
  52
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  100
  105
  111
  117
  123
  130
  136
  144
  151
  159
  167
Cash from operations, $m
  847
  973
  944
  965
  988
  1,014
  1,042
  1,073
  1,107
  1,143
  1,183
  1,166
  1,211
  1,258
  1,309
  1,364
  1,421
  1,482
  1,546
  1,614
  1,686
  1,762
  1,842
  1,926
  2,015
  2,108
  2,207
  2,311
  2,420
  2,535
  2,656
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -109
  -112
  -115
  -118
  -121
  -125
  -129
  -134
  -139
  -144
  -150
  -156
  -162
  -169
  -176
  -184
  -192
  -201
  -210
  -219
  -229
  -240
  -251
  -263
  -276
  -289
  -303
  -317
  -333
  -349
New CAPEX, $m
  -232
  -59
  -67
  -75
  -84
  -92
  -100
  -109
  -118
  -126
  -135
  -144
  -154
  -164
  -174
  -184
  -195
  -206
  -218
  -230
  -243
  -256
  -270
  -285
  -300
  -316
  -333
  -350
  -368
  -387
  -408
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -442
  -168
  -179
  -190
  -202
  -213
  -225
  -238
  -252
  -265
  -279
  -294
  -310
  -326
  -343
  -360
  -379
  -398
  -419
  -440
  -462
  -485
  -510
  -536
  -563
  -592
  -622
  -653
  -685
  -720
  -757
Free cash flow, $m
  405
  805
  766
  775
  786
  800
  816
  835
  856
  878
  903
  871
  901
  933
  967
  1,003
  1,042
  1,083
  1,127
  1,174
  1,223
  1,276
  1,331
  1,390
  1,452
  1,517
  1,585
  1,658
  1,734
  1,815
  1,900
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -87
  68
  76
  86
  96
  105
  115
  125
  135
  145
  155
  165
  176
  187
  199
  211
  223
  236
  250
  264
  278
  294
  310
  326
  344
  362
  381
  401
  422
  444
  467
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -42
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -129
  68
  76
  86
  96
  105
  115
  125
  135
  145
  155
  165
  176
  187
  199
  211
  223
  236
  250
  264
  278
  294
  310
  326
  344
  362
  381
  401
  422
  444
  467
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  302
  873
  842
  861
  882
  906
  931
  960
  990
  1,023
  1,058
  1,037
  1,077
  1,120
  1,166
  1,214
  1,265
  1,320
  1,377
  1,438
  1,502
  1,569
  1,641
  1,716
  1,795
  1,879
  1,966
  2,059
  2,156
  2,258
  2,366
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -441
  -89
  -101
  -115
  -127
  -140
  -153
  -166
  -179
  -192
  -206
  -220
  -235
  -249
  -265
  -281
  -297
  -315
  -332
  -351
  -371
  -391
  -412
  -434
  -457
  -482
  -507
  -533
  -561
  -590
  -621
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  784
  740
  746
  755
  765
  778
  794
  811
  831
  852
  817
  843
  871
  901
  933
  968
  1,005
  1,045
  1,087
  1,131
  1,179
  1,229
  1,282
  1,338
  1,397
  1,459
  1,525
  1,595
  1,668
  1,745
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  751
  678
  649
  621
  593
  565
  536
  507
  477
  447
  388
  360
  331
  302
  274
  246
  219
  192
  167
  144
  122
  102
  84
  68
  54
  43
  33
  25
  18
  13
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Saputo Inc. produces, markets, and distributes various dairy products in Canada, the United States, Argentina, and Australia. It offers a range of cheese products, such as Italian cheeses, cheddar, and specialty and fine cheeses; and dairy products, including fluid milk, flavored milk, cream, yogurt, butter and butter blends, and milk powder. The company also provides dairy and non-dairy products, such as cream and flavored coffee creamers, juices and drinks, ice cream mixes, whipping cream, aerosol whipped toppings, and iced coffee; and cultured products comprising sour cream and cottage cheese, as well as provides functional milks, value-added products, and organic products. In addition, it offers dairy ingredients, such as whey protein concentrates, whey protein isolate, skim milk powder, whole milk powder, acid casein, lactose, whey powder, de-proteinized whey, and functional dairy blends. Further, the company exports its products. It serves customers in the retail, foodservice, and industrial segments. The company sells its products under the Saputo, Alexis de Portneuf, Armstrong, COON, Cracker Barrel, Dairyland, DairyStar, Friendship Dairies, Frigo Cheese Heads, La Paulina, Milk2Go/LaitÂ’s Go, Neilson, Nutrilait, Scotsburn, Stella, Sungold, Treasure Cave, and Woolwich Dairy brand names. Saputo Inc. was founded in 1954 and is headquartered in Montreal, Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Saputo Inc. (SAP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 27.2
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 4.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 19.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 26.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 24.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 30.2%
Total Debt to Equity 40.8%
Interest Coverage 15
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Return On Total Capital 11%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Return On Equity 15.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.7%
Asset Turnover 1.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 29.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29%
EBITDA Margin 10.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Operating Margin 7.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Net Profit Margin 5.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Effective Tax Rate 31%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.5%
Payout Ratio 34.9%

SAP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SAP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $10992 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Saputo Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Saputo Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SAP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SAP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Saputo Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Saputo Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SAP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SAP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.8% for Saputo Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Saputo Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SAP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SAP are equal to 23.9%.

Life of production assets of 24 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Saputo Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SAP is equal to 9.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4002 million for Saputo Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 387.34 million for Saputo Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Saputo Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $16.2 billion.


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Stock chart of SAP Financial statements of SAP
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