Intrinsic value of ShawCor Ltd. - SCL

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  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SCL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -33.24
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,209
  1,233
  1,262
  1,294
  1,330
  1,371
  1,415
  1,463
  1,515
  1,571
  1,632
  1,696
  1,765
  1,838
  1,916
  1,999
  2,087
  2,179
  2,277
  2,381
  2,490
  2,606
  2,728
  2,856
  2,991
  3,134
  3,284
  3,441
  3,607
  3,782
  3,966
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  607
  620
  635
  652
  671
  692
  714
  738
  764
  792
  787
  819
  853
  889
  927
  968
  1,011
  1,057
  1,105
  1,155
  1,209
  1,266
  1,325
  1,388
  1,454
  1,523
  1,597
  1,674
  1,755
  1,840
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  807
  827
  848
  869
  890
  913
  935
  959
  983
  1,007
  1,033
  1,058
  1,085
  1,112
  1,140
  1,168
  1,198
  1,227
  1,258
  1,290
  1,322
  1,355
  1,389
  1,423
  1,459
  1,496
  1,533
  1,571
  1,611
  1,651
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,364
  1,414
  1,447
  1,483
  1,521
  1,561
  1,605
  1,649
  1,697
  1,747
  1,799
  1,820
  1,877
  1,938
  2,001
  2,067
  2,136
  2,209
  2,284
  2,363
  2,445
  2,531
  2,621
  2,714
  2,811
  2,913
  3,019
  3,130
  3,245
  3,366
  3,491
Operating income, $m
  -155
  -181
  -186
  -189
  -191
  -191
  -189
  -186
  -182
  -176
  -168
  -123
  -112
  -99
  -85
  -68
  -50
  -29
  -7
  18
  45
  75
  107
  142
  180
  221
  265
  312
  362
  417
  475
EBITDA, $m
  -75
  -94
  -98
  -100
  -100
  -98
  -95
  -90
  -83
  -75
  -65
  -52
  -39
  -23
  -5
  15
  37
  62
  88
  118
  149
  184
  221
  261
  305
  352
  402
  455
  513
  575
  641
Interest expense (income), $m
  18
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  80
  85
Earnings before tax, $m
  -174
  -193
  -199
  -203
  -206
  -207
  -207
  -205
  -202
  -197
  -191
  -148
  -139
  -128
  -115
  -101
  -85
  -67
  -47
  -24
  0
  26
  55
  87
  121
  158
  198
  241
  287
  337
  390
Tax expense, $m
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  7
  15
  23
  33
  43
  53
  65
  78
  91
  105
Net income, $m
  -181
  -193
  -199
  -203
  -206
  -207
  -207
  -205
  -202
  -197
  -191
  -148
  -139
  -128
  -115
  -101
  -85
  -67
  -47
  -24
  0
  19
  40
  63
  88
  115
  144
  176
  210
  246
  285

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  197
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,778
  1,612
  1,649
  1,691
  1,739
  1,792
  1,850
  1,913
  1,981
  2,054
  2,133
  2,217
  2,307
  2,403
  2,505
  2,613
  2,728
  2,849
  2,977
  3,113
  3,256
  3,406
  3,566
  3,733
  3,910
  4,096
  4,292
  4,498
  4,716
  4,944
  5,184
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,581
  1,612
  1,649
  1,691
  1,739
  1,792
  1,850
  1,913
  1,981
  2,054
  2,133
  2,217
  2,307
  2,403
  2,505
  2,613
  2,728
  2,849
  2,977
  3,113
  3,256
  3,406
  3,566
  3,733
  3,910
  4,096
  4,292
  4,498
  4,716
  4,944
  5,184
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
Average production assets, $m
  687
  700
  717
  735
  756
  779
  804
  831
  861
  893
  927
  964
  1,003
  1,044
  1,089
  1,135
  1,185
  1,238
  1,294
  1,352
  1,415
  1,480
  1,549
  1,622
  1,699
  1,780
  1,865
  1,955
  2,049
  2,148
  2,253
Working capital, $m
  280
  88
  90
  92
  94
  97
  100
  104
  108
  112
  116
  120
  125
  131
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  194
  203
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
  269
  282
Total debt, $m
  278
  290
  307
  327
  349
  374
  401
  430
  462
  496
  533
  573
  615
  659
  707
  757
  811
  867
  927
  991
  1,057
  1,128
  1,202
  1,280
  1,363
  1,450
  1,541
  1,638
  1,739
  1,846
  1,958
Total liabilities, $m
  741
  753
  770
  790
  812
  837
  864
  893
  925
  959
  996
  1,036
  1,078
  1,122
  1,170
  1,220
  1,274
  1,330
  1,390
  1,454
  1,520
  1,591
  1,665
  1,743
  1,826
  1,913
  2,004
  2,101
  2,202
  2,309
  2,421
Total equity, $m
  1,037
  859
  879
  902
  927
  955
  986
  1,019
  1,056
  1,095
  1,137
  1,182
  1,230
  1,281
  1,335
  1,393
  1,454
  1,518
  1,587
  1,659
  1,735
  1,816
  1,900
  1,990
  2,084
  2,183
  2,288
  2,398
  2,513
  2,635
  2,763
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,778
  1,612
  1,649
  1,692
  1,739
  1,792
  1,850
  1,912
  1,981
  2,054
  2,133
  2,218
  2,308
  2,403
  2,505
  2,613
  2,728
  2,848
  2,977
  3,113
  3,255
  3,407
  3,565
  3,733
  3,910
  4,096
  4,292
  4,499
  4,715
  4,944
  5,184
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.268
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.380
  0.390
  0.410
  0.420
  0.440
  0.450
  0.470
  0.480
  0.500
  0.510
  0.530
  0.540
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -181
  -193
  -199
  -203
  -206
  -207
  -207
  -205
  -202
  -197
  -191
  -148
  -139
  -128
  -115
  -101
  -85
  -67
  -47
  -24
  0
  19
  40
  63
  88
  115
  144
  176
  210
  246
  285
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  80
  87
  88
  89
  91
  92
  94
  96
  98
  101
  103
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166
Funds from operations, $m
  227
  -107
  -111
  -114
  -115
  -114
  -112
  -109
  -103
  -96
  -87
  -77
  -65
  -51
  -35
  -17
  3
  24
  49
  75
  104
  128
  154
  183
  213
  246
  282
  320
  360
  404
  450
Change in working capital, $m
  95
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
Cash from operations, $m
  132
  -131
  -113
  -116
  -118
  -117
  -115
  -112
  -107
  -100
  -92
  -82
  -70
  -56
  -41
  -23
  -4
  18
  42
  68
  96
  120
  146
  174
  204
  236
  271
  308
  348
  391
  437
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -50
  -52
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
New CAPEX, $m
  -89
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -111
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -196
  -206
  -216
  -227
  -238
  -250
  -262
Free cash flow, $m
  21
  -195
  -181
  -187
  -192
  -196
  -198
  -198
  -198
  -195
  -192
  -186
  -180
  -171
  -162
  -150
  -137
  -122
  -105
  -86
  -66
  -50
  -32
  -13
  8
  30
  55
  82
  110
  142
  175
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -201
  15
  17
  20
  22
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  48
  50
  53
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  107
  112
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  168
  3
  183
  190
  195
  199
  202
  203
  202
  200
  197
  192
  186
  178
  168
  157
  145
  130
  114
  95
  75
  60
  43
  24
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -34
  18
  200
  210
  217
  224
  229
  232
  234
  234
  234
  231
  228
  223
  216
  207
  198
  187
  174
  158
  142
  130
  117
  102
  87
  87
  92
  96
  101
  107
  112
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -27
  -181
  -164
  -168
  -170
  -171
  -171
  -169
  -166
  -161
  -155
  -147
  -138
  -127
  -114
  -100
  -83
  -65
  -45
  -23
  1
  21
  42
  65
  90
  117
  146
  178
  212
  248
  287
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  81
  -16
  -20
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  194
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  18
  42
  68
  96
  126
  159
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.8
  89.4
  79.9
  71.4
  63.9
  57.2
  51.5
  46.4
  42.0
  38.3
  35.0
  32.3
  29.9
  27.9
  26.2
  24.8
  23.6
  22.7
  22.0
  21.4
  21.0
  20.8
  20.6
  20.6
  20.6
  20.6
  20.6
  20.6
  20.6
  20.6

ShawCor Ltd., an energy services company, provides products and services for the pipeline, pipe services, petrochemical, and industrial segments of the energy industry worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Pipeline and Pipe Services, and Petrochemical and Industrial. Its Bredero Shaw division offers pipe coating, lining, and insulation products; and Canusa-CPS division manufactures heat shrinkable sleeves, adhesives, and liquid coatings for pipeline joint protection applications. The company’s Flexpipe Systems provides spoolable composite pipe systems; and Guardian division offers oilfield tubular management services and inspection, as well as testing and refurbishment of oilfield tubular products. The company’s Shaw Pipeline Services division provides ultrasonic and radiographic weld inspection services for land and marine pipeline construction; and Desert division provides nondestructive testing services for oil and gas gathering pipelines and infrastructure integrity management services. Its ShawFlex division manufactures wire and cable for process instrumentation and control applications; and DSG-Canusa division manufactures heat-shrinkable products for automotive, electrical, electronic, and utility applications. The company was formerly known as Shaw Industries Ltd. and changed its name to ShawCor Ltd. in 2001. ShawCor Ltd. is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ShawCor Ltd. (SCL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -10.8
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 45.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -33.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 45.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 66
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 26.5%
Total Debt to Equity 26.8%
Interest Coverage -9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -8.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Return On Total Capital -12.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.6%
Return On Equity -16.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 32.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.7%
EBITDA Margin -6.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Operating Margin -12.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -14.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.4%
Net Profit Margin -15%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.5%
Effective Tax Rate -4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.6%
Payout Ratio -21.5%

SCL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SCL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1209 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ShawCor Ltd.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of ShawCor Ltd.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SCL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SCL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ShawCor Ltd., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ShawCor Ltd..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SCL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 49.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $787 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SCL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.6% for ShawCor Ltd..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ShawCor Ltd.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SCL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SCL are equal to 56.8%.

Life of production assets of 13.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ShawCor Ltd. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SCL is equal to 7.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1037 million for ShawCor Ltd. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 67.568 million for ShawCor Ltd. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ShawCor Ltd. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.


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