Intrinsic value of SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. - SNC

Previous Close

$56.07

  Intrinsic Value

$51.16

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-9%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$56.07

 
Intrinsic value

$51.16

 
Up/down potential

-9%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SNC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 9.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -11.64
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  8,471
  8,640
  8,839
  9,066
  9,321
  9,604
  9,914
  10,252
  10,617
  11,011
  11,433
  11,886
  12,368
  12,882
  13,427
  14,007
  14,620
  15,270
  15,957
  16,683
  17,450
  18,259
  19,112
  20,011
  20,958
  21,956
  23,006
  24,112
  25,276
  26,500
  27,787
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  7,009
  7,163
  7,339
  7,536
  7,755
  7,995
  8,256
  8,538
  8,843
  9,170
  9,193
  9,566
  9,963
  10,385
  10,833
  11,308
  11,810
  12,342
  12,903
  13,496
  14,122
  14,781
  15,477
  16,209
  16,981
  17,794
  18,649
  19,549
  20,495
  21,491
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  1,347
  1,381
  1,415
  1,450
  1,487
  1,524
  1,562
  1,601
  1,641
  1,682
  1,724
  1,767
  1,811
  1,857
  1,903
  1,951
  1,999
  2,049
  2,101
  2,153
  2,207
  2,262
  2,319
  2,377
  2,436
  2,497
  2,559
  2,623
  2,689
  2,756
Total operating expenses, $m
  8,159
  8,356
  8,544
  8,754
  8,986
  9,242
  9,519
  9,818
  10,139
  10,484
  10,852
  10,917
  11,333
  11,774
  12,242
  12,736
  13,259
  13,809
  14,391
  15,004
  15,649
  16,329
  17,043
  17,796
  18,586
  19,417
  20,291
  21,208
  22,172
  23,184
  24,247
Operating income, $m
  312
  284
  295
  312
  335
  363
  396
  434
  478
  527
  582
  969
  1,035
  1,107
  1,186
  1,271
  1,362
  1,460
  1,566
  1,679
  1,801
  1,930
  2,068
  2,215
  2,372
  2,539
  2,716
  2,904
  3,104
  3,315
  3,540
EBITDA, $m
  455
  630
  642
  660
  683
  711
  745
  784
  829
  879
  934
  996
  1,063
  1,137
  1,216
  1,302
  1,395
  1,495
  1,602
  1,717
  1,840
  1,971
  2,111
  2,261
  2,420
  2,588
  2,768
  2,959
  3,161
  3,375
  3,603
Interest expense (income), $m
  60
  58
  65
  74
  84
  96
  108
  122
  137
  154
  171
  190
  210
  232
  255
  279
  305
  332
  361
  392
  424
  459
  495
  533
  573
  615
  660
  707
  756
  808
  863
Earnings before tax, $m
  270
  227
  230
  238
  251
  267
  287
  312
  341
  374
  411
  779
  825
  876
  931
  991
  1,057
  1,128
  1,205
  1,287
  1,376
  1,471
  1,573
  1,682
  1,799
  1,923
  2,056
  2,197
  2,347
  2,507
  2,677
Tax expense, $m
  13
  61
  62
  64
  68
  72
  78
  84
  92
  101
  111
  210
  223
  236
  251
  268
  285
  305
  325
  348
  372
  397
  425
  454
  486
  519
  555
  593
  634
  677
  723
Net income, $m
  256
  165
  168
  174
  183
  195
  210
  228
  249
  273
  300
  569
  602
  639
  680
  724
  772
  824
  880
  940
  1,005
  1,074
  1,148
  1,228
  1,313
  1,404
  1,501
  1,604
  1,713
  1,830
  1,954

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1,055
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  9,298
  8,405
  8,598
  8,819
  9,067
  9,342
  9,644
  9,972
  10,328
  10,711
  11,122
  11,562
  12,031
  12,531
  13,062
  13,625
  14,222
  14,854
  15,523
  16,229
  16,975
  17,761
  18,591
  19,466
  20,387
  21,358
  22,380
  23,455
  24,587
  25,778
  27,030
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  8,243
  8,405
  8,598
  8,819
  9,067
  9,342
  9,644
  9,972
  10,328
  10,711
  11,122
  11,562
  12,031
  12,531
  13,062
  13,625
  14,222
  14,854
  15,523
  16,229
  16,975
  17,761
  18,591
  19,466
  20,387
  21,358
  22,380
  23,455
  24,587
  25,778
  27,030
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
Average production assets, $m
  515
  527
  539
  553
  569
  586
  605
  625
  648
  672
  697
  725
  754
  786
  819
  854
  892
  931
  973
  1,018
  1,064
  1,114
  1,166
  1,221
  1,278
  1,339
  1,403
  1,471
  1,542
  1,616
  1,695
Working capital, $m
  228
  -821
  -840
  -861
  -886
  -912
  -942
  -974
  -1,009
  -1,046
  -1,086
  -1,129
  -1,175
  -1,224
  -1,276
  -1,331
  -1,389
  -1,451
  -1,516
  -1,585
  -1,658
  -1,735
  -1,816
  -1,901
  -1,991
  -2,086
  -2,186
  -2,291
  -2,401
  -2,517
  -2,640
Total debt, $m
  843
  932
  1,059
  1,204
  1,366
  1,547
  1,744
  1,960
  2,193
  2,444
  2,714
  3,003
  3,310
  3,638
  3,986
  4,356
  4,748
  5,162
  5,601
  6,064
  6,553
  7,069
  7,614
  8,188
  8,792
  9,429
  10,099
  10,805
  11,547
  12,328
  13,150
Total liabilities, $m
  5,425
  5,514
  5,641
  5,786
  5,948
  6,129
  6,326
  6,542
  6,775
  7,026
  7,296
  7,585
  7,892
  8,220
  8,568
  8,938
  9,330
  9,744
  10,183
  10,646
  11,135
  11,651
  12,196
  12,770
  13,374
  14,011
  14,681
  15,387
  16,129
  16,910
  17,732
Total equity, $m
  3,873
  2,891
  2,958
  3,034
  3,119
  3,214
  3,318
  3,431
  3,553
  3,685
  3,826
  3,977
  4,139
  4,311
  4,493
  4,687
  4,892
  5,110
  5,340
  5,583
  5,839
  6,110
  6,395
  6,696
  7,013
  7,347
  7,699
  8,069
  8,458
  8,868
  9,298
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  9,298
  8,405
  8,599
  8,820
  9,067
  9,343
  9,644
  9,973
  10,328
  10,711
  11,122
  11,562
  12,031
  12,531
  13,061
  13,625
  14,222
  14,854
  15,523
  16,229
  16,974
  17,761
  18,591
  19,466
  20,387
  21,358
  22,380
  23,456
  24,587
  25,778
  27,030
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.218
  0.320
  0.360
  0.400
  0.440
  0.480
  0.530
  0.570
  0.620
  0.660
  0.710
  0.750
  0.800
  0.840
  0.890
  0.930
  0.970
  1.010
  1.050
  1.090
  1.120
  1.160
  1.190
  1.220
  1.250
  1.280
  1.310
  1.340
  1.370
  1.390
  1.410
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.342
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  256
  165
  168
  174
  183
  195
  210
  228
  249
  273
  300
  569
  602
  639
  680
  724
  772
  824
  880
  940
  1,005
  1,074
  1,148
  1,228
  1,313
  1,404
  1,501
  1,604
  1,713
  1,830
  1,954
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  143
  346
  347
  347
  348
  349
  349
  350
  351
  352
  353
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
Funds from operations, $m
  94
  512
  515
  521
  531
  543
  559
  578
  600
  624
  652
  596
  630
  668
  710
  756
  805
  858
  916
  978
  1,044
  1,115
  1,192
  1,273
  1,361
  1,454
  1,553
  1,658
  1,771
  1,890
  2,017
Change in working capital, $m
  -12
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -116
  -122
Cash from operations, $m
  106
  528
  534
  543
  555
  570
  589
  610
  634
  662
  693
  639
  676
  717
  762
  811
  863
  920
  981
  1,047
  1,117
  1,192
  1,273
  1,359
  1,451
  1,549
  1,653
  1,763
  1,881
  2,006
  2,139
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
New CAPEX, $m
  -151
  -12
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -87
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -126
  -132
  -139
Free cash flow, $m
  19
  497
  502
  509
  519
  532
  548
  567
  589
  614
  642
  585
  620
  658
  699
  745
  794
  847
  904
  966
  1,032
  1,103
  1,179
  1,261
  1,348
  1,440
  1,539
  1,644
  1,756
  1,874
  2,001
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -456
  110
  127
  145
  163
  180
  198
  215
  233
  251
  270
  288
  308
  328
  348
  370
  392
  415
  438
  463
  489
  516
  544
  574
  605
  637
  670
  706
  742
  781
  822
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -382
  110
  127
  145
  163
  180
  198
  215
  233
  251
  270
  288
  308
  328
  348
  370
  392
  415
  438
  463
  489
  516
  544
  574
  605
  637
  670
  706
  742
  781
  822
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -370
  606
  629
  654
  682
  712
  746
  782
  822
  865
  912
  874
  928
  986
  1,048
  1,114
  1,186
  1,262
  1,343
  1,429
  1,522
  1,620
  1,724
  1,834
  1,952
  2,077
  2,209
  2,349
  2,498
  2,656
  2,822
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -5
  -52
  -67
  -76
  -85
  -95
  -104
  -113
  -122
  -132
  -141
  -151
  -161
  -172
  -183
  -194
  -205
  -217
  -230
  -243
  -257
  -271
  -285
  -301
  -317
  -334
  -352
  -370
  -389
  -410
  -431
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  1,034
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,588
  562
  578
  596
  618
  642
  669
  700
  733
  770
  722
  766
  814
  865
  921
  980
  1,044
  1,113
  1,186
  1,265
  1,349
  1,438
  1,534
  1,635
  1,743
  1,858
  1,979
  2,109
  2,246
  2,392
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,523
  515
  503
  491
  479
  466
  452
  437
  421
  404
  343
  327
  309
  290
  270
  249
  227
  205
  183
  161
  140
  119
  101
  83
  68
  54
  42
  33
  25
  18
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. is an engineering and construction company. The Company's segments include Mining & Metallurgy, which provides solutions for a range of projects in the aluminum, gold, copper, iron ore, nickel, fertilizers and sulfur product sectors, among others; Oil & Gas, which includes projects in the upstream, midstream and downstream (supporting infrastructure) sectors for oil and gas and resources companies, supporting these clients operating across the asset lifecycle from front end evaluation through decommissioning (capital expenditures and operational expenditures); Power, which includes projects and services in hydro, nuclear and thermal power generation, renewable power generation, energy from waste, and electrical transmission and distribution systems; Infrastructure, which is divided into the Infrastructure & Construction and Operations & Maintenance sub-segments, and Capital segment is the investment and asset management arm of the Company.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. (SNC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 32.9
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 79.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -187.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -11.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 30.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -37.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 50
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 21.2%
Total Debt to Equity 21.8%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Return On Total Capital 5.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Return On Equity 6.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.6%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 14.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
EBITDA Margin 5.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.7%
Operating Margin 3.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Net Profit Margin 3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Effective Tax Rate 4.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Payout Ratio 60.9%

SNC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SNC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $8471 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by SNC-Lavalin Group Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of SNC-Lavalin Group Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SNC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SNC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of SNC-Lavalin Group Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of SNC-Lavalin Group Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SNC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 81.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1314 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SNC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7% for SNC-Lavalin Group Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for SNC-Lavalin Group Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SNC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SNC are equal to 6.1%.

Life of production assets of 26.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SNC is equal to -9.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3873 million for SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 175.439 million for SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $9.8 billion.

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Financial statements of SNC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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