Intrinsic value of Superior Plus Corp. - SPB

Previous Close

$11.20

  Intrinsic Value

$1.29

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-88%

  Value-price divergence*

-82%

Previous close

$11.20

 
Intrinsic value

$1.29

 
Up/down potential

-88%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-82%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SPB stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -10.16
  19.90
  18.41
  17.07
  15.86
  14.78
  13.80
  12.92
  12.13
  11.41
  10.77
  10.20
  9.68
  9.21
  8.79
  8.41
  8.07
  7.76
  7.48
  7.24
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.87
  5.78
  5.70
Revenue, $m
  2,024
  2,427
  2,874
  3,364
  3,898
  4,474
  5,091
  5,748
  6,446
  7,181
  7,955
  8,766
  9,614
  10,499
  11,422
  12,382
  13,381
  14,420
  15,499
  16,621
  17,786
  18,998
  20,258
  21,568
  22,931
  24,350
  25,828
  27,368
  28,973
  30,648
  32,396
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,433
  2,877
  3,364
  3,895
  4,467
  5,081
  5,735
  6,428
  7,159
  7,928
  8,715
  9,558
  10,438
  11,355
  12,310
  13,303
  14,336
  15,409
  16,524
  17,683
  18,887
  20,139
  21,442
  22,797
  24,208
  25,677
  27,208
  28,804
  30,469
  32,207
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,873
  2,433
  2,877
  3,364
  3,895
  4,467
  5,081
  5,735
  6,428
  7,159
  7,928
  8,715
  9,558
  10,438
  11,355
  12,310
  13,303
  14,336
  15,409
  16,524
  17,683
  18,887
  20,139
  21,442
  22,797
  24,208
  25,677
  27,208
  28,804
  30,469
  32,207
Operating income, $m
  151
  -6
  -3
  0
  3
  6
  10
  14
  18
  22
  26
  51
  56
  61
  67
  72
  78
  84
  90
  97
  104
  111
  118
  126
  134
  142
  151
  160
  169
  179
  189
EBITDA, $m
  272
  135
  160
  188
  218
  250
  284
  321
  360
  401
  444
  489
  537
  586
  638
  691
  747
  805
  865
  928
  993
  1,061
  1,131
  1,204
  1,280
  1,360
  1,442
  1,528
  1,618
  1,711
  1,809
Interest expense (income), $m
  34
  26
  35
  44
  55
  67
  80
  94
  108
  124
  140
  157
  175
  194
  213
  234
  255
  277
  300
  324
  349
  375
  401
  429
  458
  488
  520
  553
  587
  622
  659
Earnings before tax, $m
  151
  -31
  -38
  -45
  -53
  -61
  -70
  -80
  -90
  -102
  -113
  -106
  -119
  -132
  -147
  -161
  -177
  -193
  -210
  -227
  -245
  -264
  -283
  -304
  -325
  -346
  -369
  -393
  -418
  -443
  -470
Tax expense, $m
  37
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  295
  -31
  -38
  -45
  -53
  -61
  -70
  -80
  -90
  -102
  -113
  -106
  -119
  -132
  -147
  -161
  -177
  -193
  -210
  -227
  -245
  -264
  -283
  -304
  -325
  -346
  -369
  -393
  -418
  -443
  -470

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,848
  2,210
  2,617
  3,064
  3,550
  4,074
  4,636
  5,235
  5,870
  6,540
  7,245
  7,984
  8,756
  9,562
  10,403
  11,277
  12,187
  13,133
  14,116
  15,137
  16,199
  17,302
  18,449
  19,643
  20,884
  22,177
  23,523
  24,925
  26,387
  27,913
  29,504
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,843
  2,210
  2,617
  3,064
  3,550
  4,074
  4,636
  5,235
  5,870
  6,540
  7,245
  7,984
  8,756
  9,562
  10,403
  11,277
  12,187
  13,133
  14,116
  15,137
  16,199
  17,302
  18,449
  19,643
  20,884
  22,177
  23,523
  24,925
  26,387
  27,913
  29,504
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.098
  1.098
  1.098
  1.098
  1.098
  1.098
  1.098
  1.098
  1.098
  1.098
  1.098
  1.098
  1.098
  1.098
  1.098
  1.098
  1.098
  1.098
  1.098
  1.098
  1.098
  1.098
  1.098
  1.098
  1.098
  1.098
  1.098
  1.098
  1.098
  1.098
  1.098
Average production assets, $m
  1,002
  1,201
  1,422
  1,665
  1,929
  2,214
  2,520
  2,845
  3,191
  3,555
  3,938
  4,339
  4,759
  5,197
  5,654
  6,129
  6,624
  7,138
  7,672
  8,227
  8,804
  9,404
  10,027
  10,676
  11,351
  12,053
  12,785
  13,547
  14,342
  15,171
  16,036
Working capital, $m
  105
  141
  167
  195
  226
  259
  295
  333
  374
  417
  461
  508
  558
  609
  662
  718
  776
  836
  899
  964
  1,032
  1,102
  1,175
  1,251
  1,330
  1,412
  1,498
  1,587
  1,680
  1,778
  1,879
Total debt, $m
  529
  706
  908
  1,130
  1,371
  1,631
  1,910
  2,207
  2,522
  2,854
  3,203
  3,570
  3,953
  4,353
  4,770
  5,204
  5,655
  6,124
  6,611
  7,118
  7,645
  8,192
  8,761
  9,353
  9,969
  10,610
  11,277
  11,973
  12,698
  13,455
  14,244
Total liabilities, $m
  919
  1,096
  1,298
  1,520
  1,761
  2,021
  2,300
  2,597
  2,912
  3,244
  3,593
  3,960
  4,343
  4,743
  5,160
  5,594
  6,045
  6,514
  7,001
  7,508
  8,035
  8,582
  9,151
  9,743
  10,359
  11,000
  11,667
  12,363
  13,088
  13,845
  14,634
Total equity, $m
  929
  1,114
  1,319
  1,544
  1,789
  2,053
  2,337
  2,639
  2,959
  3,296
  3,651
  4,024
  4,413
  4,819
  5,243
  5,684
  6,142
  6,619
  7,114
  7,629
  8,164
  8,720
  9,299
  9,900
  10,526
  11,177
  11,855
  12,562
  13,299
  14,068
  14,870
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,848
  2,210
  2,617
  3,064
  3,550
  4,074
  4,637
  5,236
  5,871
  6,540
  7,244
  7,984
  8,756
  9,562
  10,403
  11,278
  12,187
  13,133
  14,115
  15,137
  16,199
  17,302
  18,450
  19,643
  20,885
  22,177
  23,522
  24,925
  26,387
  27,913
  29,504
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.569
  0.630
  0.690
  0.730
  0.770
  0.790
  0.820
  0.840
  0.850
  0.870
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
  0.920
  0.930
  0.930
  0.930
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.950
  0.950
  0.950
  0.950
  0.950
  0.960
  0.960
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.501
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  295
  -31
  -38
  -45
  -53
  -61
  -70
  -80
  -90
  -102
  -113
  -106
  -119
  -132
  -147
  -161
  -177
  -193
  -210
  -227
  -245
  -264
  -283
  -304
  -325
  -346
  -369
  -393
  -418
  -443
  -470
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  121
  141
  164
  188
  215
  244
  274
  307
  342
  379
  418
  438
  481
  525
  571
  619
  669
  721
  775
  831
  889
  950
  1,013
  1,078
  1,147
  1,217
  1,291
  1,368
  1,449
  1,532
  1,620
Funds from operations, $m
  70
  110
  126
  143
  162
  183
  204
  227
  252
  277
  304
  332
  362
  393
  424
  458
  492
  528
  565
  604
  644
  686
  730
  775
  822
  871
  922
  975
  1,031
  1,089
  1,149
Change in working capital, $m
  -77
  23
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
Cash from operations, $m
  147
  86
  100
  115
  131
  149
  169
  189
  211
  235
  259
  285
  313
  341
  371
  402
  434
  468
  503
  539
  577
  616
  657
  699
  743
  789
  836
  886
  938
  992
  1,048
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -101
  -121
  -144
  -168
  -195
  -224
  -255
  -287
  -322
  -359
  -398
  -438
  -481
  -525
  -571
  -619
  -669
  -721
  -775
  -831
  -889
  -950
  -1,013
  -1,078
  -1,147
  -1,217
  -1,291
  -1,368
  -1,449
  -1,532
New CAPEX, $m
  -98
  -200
  -221
  -243
  -264
  -285
  -306
  -326
  -345
  -364
  -383
  -401
  -420
  -438
  -457
  -475
  -494
  -514
  -534
  -555
  -577
  -600
  -624
  -649
  -675
  -702
  -732
  -762
  -795
  -829
  -865
Cash from investing activities, $m
  292
  -301
  -342
  -387
  -432
  -480
  -530
  -581
  -632
  -686
  -742
  -799
  -858
  -919
  -982
  -1,046
  -1,113
  -1,183
  -1,255
  -1,330
  -1,408
  -1,489
  -1,574
  -1,662
  -1,753
  -1,849
  -1,949
  -2,053
  -2,163
  -2,278
  -2,397
Free cash flow, $m
  439
  -214
  -243
  -272
  -301
  -331
  -361
  -391
  -421
  -452
  -483
  -514
  -545
  -578
  -611
  -645
  -679
  -715
  -753
  -791
  -831
  -873
  -917
  -962
  -1,010
  -1,060
  -1,113
  -1,168
  -1,225
  -1,286
  -1,349
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -319
  182
  202
  222
  241
  260
  279
  297
  315
  332
  349
  366
  383
  400
  417
  434
  451
  469
  488
  507
  527
  547
  569
  592
  616
  641
  668
  696
  725
  756
  789
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  216
  243
  270
  297
  325
  353
  382
  410
  439
  468
  478
  508
  539
  570
  602
  635
  670
  705
  742
  780
  820
  861
  905
  950
  998
  1,048
  1,100
  1,155
  1,212
  1,272
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -331
  398
  445
  492
  538
  585
  632
  679
  725
  771
  817
  844
  891
  939
  987
  1,036
  1,086
  1,139
  1,193
  1,249
  1,307
  1,367
  1,430
  1,497
  1,566
  1,639
  1,716
  1,796
  1,880
  1,968
  2,061
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  107
  184
  202
  220
  237
  255
  272
  288
  304
  320
  335
  331
  346
  361
  376
  392
  407
  423
  440
  457
  475
  494
  514
  534
  556
  579
  603
  628
  655
  683
  713
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -215
  -216
  -243
  -270
  -297
  -325
  -353
  -382
  -410
  -439
  -468
  -478
  -508
  -539
  -570
  -602
  -635
  -670
  -705
  -742
  -780
  -820
  -861
  -905
  -950
  -998
  -1,048
  -1,100
  -1,155
  -1,212
  -1,272
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -32
  -41
  -50
  -60
  -71
  -82
  -94
  -106
  -119
  -133
  -147
  -162
  -178
  -194
  -211
  -228
  -246
  -265
  -285
  -305
  -326
  -348
  -371
  -394
  -419
  -445
  -472
  -500
  -529
  -560
Discount rate, %
 
  5.50
  5.78
  6.06
  6.37
  6.69
  7.02
  7.37
  7.74
  8.13
  8.53
  8.96
  9.41
  9.88
  10.37
  10.89
  11.43
  12.01
  12.61
  13.24
  13.90
  14.59
  15.32
  16.09
  16.89
  17.74
  18.62
  19.56
  20.53
  21.56
  22.64
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -31
  -36
  -42
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -59
  -59
  -57
  -55
  -52
  -49
  -45
  -40
  -36
  -31
  -27
  -23
  -19
  -15
  -12
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  88.0
  78.0
  69.7
  62.6
  56.6
  51.4
  46.9
  43.0
  39.6
  36.5
  33.9
  31.6
  29.5
  27.6
  25.8
  24.3
  22.8
  21.5
  20.2
  19.1
  18.0
  17.0
  16.1
  15.3
  14.5
  13.7
  13.0
  12.3
  11.7
  11.1

Superior Plus Corp. engages in the energy services, specialty chemicals, and construction products distribution businesses in Canada, the United States, and internationally. Its Energy Services segment provides distribution, wholesale procurement, and related services for propane, heating oil, and other refined fuels; and sells, installs, and services HVAC equipment, as well as provides customized natural gas and electricity retail and wholesale services. The company’s Specialty Chemicals segment supplies sodium chlorate and technology to the pulp and paper industries, as well as potassium and chloralkali products. Its Construction Products Distribution segment distributes commercial and industrial insulation, as well as specialty walls and ceiling products; and specialty construction products to the walls and ceilings industry. Superior General Partner Inc. serves as the general partner of the company. Superior Plus Corp. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Superior Plus Corp. (SPB)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 5.4
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 32.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -10.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 3.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 55%
Total Debt to Equity 56.9%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 16.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Return On Total Capital 19.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Return On Equity 35.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.9%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 32.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.3%
EBITDA Margin 15.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Operating Margin 7.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Net Profit Margin 14.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Effective Tax Rate 24.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.8%
Payout Ratio 34.6%

SPB stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SPB stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2024 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Superior Plus Corp.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Superior Plus Corp.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SPB stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 19.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.5%, whose default value for SPB is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Superior Plus Corp., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Superior Plus Corp..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SPB stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 100.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SPB stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.9% for Superior Plus Corp..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Superior Plus Corp.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SPB stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SPB are equal to 49.5%.

Life of production assets of 9.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Superior Plus Corp. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SPB is equal to 5.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $929 million for Superior Plus Corp. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 141.674 million for Superior Plus Corp. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Superior Plus Corp. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.6 billion.

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Stock chart of SPB Financial statements of SPB
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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