Intrinsic value of Sandstorm Gold Ltd. - SSL

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$4.92

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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$4.92

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SSL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  18.31
  38.90
  35.51
  32.46
  29.71
  27.24
  25.02
  23.02
  21.21
  19.59
  18.13
  16.82
  15.64
  14.57
  13.62
  12.76
  11.98
  11.28
  10.65
  10.09
  9.58
  9.12
  8.71
  8.34
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.60
Revenue, $m
  84
  117
  158
  209
  272
  346
  432
  532
  644
  771
  910
  1,063
  1,230
  1,409
  1,601
  1,805
  2,021
  2,249
  2,489
  2,740
  3,003
  3,276
  3,562
  3,859
  4,168
  4,489
  4,822
  5,169
  5,530
  5,904
  6,294
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  192
  260
  344
  446
  568
  710
  873
  1,059
  1,266
  1,496
  1,747
  2,021
  2,315
  2,630
  2,966
  3,321
  3,696
  4,089
  4,502
  4,933
  5,383
  5,852
  6,340
  6,848
  7,375
  7,923
  8,493
  9,085
  9,701
  10,340
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  44
  192
  260
  344
  446
  568
  710
  873
  1,059
  1,266
  1,496
  1,747
  2,021
  2,315
  2,630
  2,966
  3,321
  3,696
  4,089
  4,502
  4,933
  5,383
  5,852
  6,340
  6,848
  7,375
  7,923
  8,493
  9,085
  9,701
  10,340
Operating income, $m
  40
  -75
  -102
  -135
  -175
  -222
  -278
  -342
  -414
  -496
  -585
  -684
  -791
  -906
  -1,029
  -1,161
  -1,300
  -1,446
  -1,600
  -1,762
  -1,931
  -2,107
  -2,290
  -2,481
  -2,680
  -2,886
  -3,101
  -3,324
  -3,556
  -3,796
  -4,047
EBITDA, $m
  78
  -22
  -30
  -40
  -51
  -65
  -82
  -101
  -122
  -146
  -172
  -201
  -233
  -267
  -303
  -342
  -383
  -426
  -471
  -519
  -569
  -621
  -675
  -731
  -789
  -850
  -913
  -979
  -1,047
  -1,118
  -1,192
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
Earnings before tax, $m
  40
  -75
  -102
  -135
  -175
  -223
  -279
  -343
  -416
  -498
  -589
  -688
  -795
  -911
  -1,036
  -1,168
  -1,308
  -1,455
  -1,610
  -1,773
  -1,943
  -2,120
  -2,305
  -2,497
  -2,697
  -2,905
  -3,121
  -3,346
  -3,579
  -3,822
  -4,074
Tax expense, $m
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  34
  -75
  -102
  -135
  -175
  -223
  -279
  -343
  -416
  -498
  -589
  -688
  -795
  -911
  -1,036
  -1,168
  -1,308
  -1,455
  -1,610
  -1,773
  -1,943
  -2,120
  -2,305
  -2,497
  -2,697
  -2,905
  -3,121
  -3,346
  -3,579
  -3,822
  -4,074

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  29
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  723
  964
  1,307
  1,731
  2,245
  2,857
  3,571
  4,393
  5,325
  6,369
  7,524
  8,789
  10,164
  11,645
  13,231
  14,918
  16,705
  18,590
  20,570
  22,646
  24,815
  27,078
  29,437
  31,891
  34,444
  37,098
  39,855
  42,721
  45,699
  48,795
  52,014
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  694
  964
  1,307
  1,731
  2,245
  2,857
  3,571
  4,393
  5,325
  6,369
  7,524
  8,789
  10,164
  11,645
  13,231
  14,918
  16,705
  18,590
  20,570
  22,646
  24,815
  27,078
  29,437
  31,891
  34,444
  37,098
  39,855
  42,721
  45,699
  48,795
  52,014
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
Average production assets, $m
  553
  767
  1,040
  1,377
  1,787
  2,273
  2,842
  3,496
  4,238
  5,068
  5,987
  6,995
  8,088
  9,267
  10,529
  11,872
  13,294
  14,794
  16,370
  18,022
  19,748
  21,549
  23,426
  25,380
  27,411
  29,523
  31,717
  33,998
  36,368
  38,832
  41,393
Working capital, $m
  32
  4
  6
  8
  10
  12
  16
  19
  23
  28
  33
  38
  44
  51
  58
  65
  73
  81
  90
  99
  108
  118
  128
  139
  150
  162
  174
  186
  199
  213
  227
Total debt, $m
  0
  4
  10
  17
  25
  35
  46
  59
  74
  91
  109
  130
  152
  175
  201
  228
  256
  286
  318
  351
  386
  422
  460
  499
  540
  583
  627
  673
  720
  770
  821
Total liabilities, $m
  10
  15
  21
  28
  36
  46
  57
  70
  85
  102
  120
  141
  163
  186
  212
  239
  267
  297
  329
  362
  397
  433
  471
  510
  551
  594
  638
  684
  731
  781
  832
Total equity, $m
  712
  949
  1,286
  1,703
  2,209
  2,811
  3,514
  4,323
  5,240
  6,267
  7,403
  8,648
  10,001
  11,459
  13,019
  14,679
  16,438
  18,292
  20,241
  22,283
  24,418
  26,645
  28,966
  31,381
  33,893
  36,504
  39,218
  42,037
  44,968
  48,014
  51,182
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  722
  964
  1,307
  1,731
  2,245
  2,857
  3,571
  4,393
  5,325
  6,369
  7,523
  8,789
  10,164
  11,645
  13,231
  14,918
  16,705
  18,589
  20,570
  22,645
  24,815
  27,078
  29,437
  31,891
  34,444
  37,098
  39,856
  42,721
  45,699
  48,795
  52,014
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.020
  0.020
  0.020
  0.020
  0.020
  0.020
  0.020
  0.020
  0.020
  0.020
  0.020
  0.020
  0.020
  0.020
  0.020
  0.020
  0.020
  0.020
  0.020
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  34
  -75
  -102
  -135
  -175
  -223
  -279
  -343
  -416
  -498
  -589
  -688
  -795
  -911
  -1,036
  -1,168
  -1,308
  -1,455
  -1,610
  -1,773
  -1,943
  -2,120
  -2,305
  -2,497
  -2,697
  -2,905
  -3,121
  -3,346
  -3,579
  -3,822
  -4,074
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  38
  53
  72
  95
  123
  157
  196
  241
  292
  350
  413
  482
  558
  639
  726
  819
  917
  1,020
  1,129
  1,243
  1,362
  1,486
  1,616
  1,750
  1,890
  2,036
  2,187
  2,345
  2,508
  2,678
  2,855
Funds from operations, $m
  51
  -22
  -30
  -40
  -52
  -66
  -83
  -102
  -124
  -149
  -176
  -205
  -237
  -272
  -309
  -349
  -391
  -435
  -481
  -530
  -581
  -634
  -689
  -747
  -807
  -869
  -934
  -1,001
  -1,071
  -1,144
  -1,219
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
Cash from operations, $m
  53
  -31
  -32
  -42
  -54
  -69
  -86
  -106
  -128
  -153
  -181
  -211
  -243
  -279
  -316
  -356
  -399
  -443
  -490
  -539
  -590
  -644
  -700
  -758
  -818
  -881
  -946
  -1,014
  -1,084
  -1,157
  -1,233
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -38
  -53
  -72
  -95
  -123
  -157
  -196
  -241
  -292
  -350
  -413
  -482
  -558
  -639
  -726
  -819
  -917
  -1,020
  -1,129
  -1,243
  -1,362
  -1,486
  -1,616
  -1,750
  -1,890
  -2,036
  -2,187
  -2,345
  -2,508
  -2,678
New CAPEX, $m
  -15
  -215
  -272
  -338
  -409
  -487
  -569
  -654
  -742
  -830
  -919
  -1,007
  -1,094
  -1,179
  -1,262
  -1,343
  -1,422
  -1,500
  -1,576
  -1,651
  -1,726
  -1,801
  -1,877
  -1,953
  -2,032
  -2,112
  -2,195
  -2,281
  -2,370
  -2,464
  -2,562
Cash from investing activities, $m
  5
  -253
  -325
  -410
  -504
  -610
  -726
  -850
  -983
  -1,122
  -1,269
  -1,420
  -1,576
  -1,737
  -1,901
  -2,069
  -2,241
  -2,417
  -2,596
  -2,780
  -2,969
  -3,163
  -3,363
  -3,569
  -3,782
  -4,002
  -4,231
  -4,468
  -4,715
  -4,972
  -5,240
Free cash flow, $m
  58
  -284
  -357
  -451
  -559
  -679
  -812
  -956
  -1,111
  -1,276
  -1,449
  -1,631
  -1,820
  -2,015
  -2,217
  -2,425
  -2,640
  -2,860
  -3,086
  -3,320
  -3,560
  -3,807
  -4,063
  -4,327
  -4,600
  -4,883
  -5,177
  -5,482
  -5,799
  -6,129
  -6,473
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -113
  4
  5
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  77
  516
  688
  862
  1,056
  1,271
  1,504
  1,752
  2,013
  2,286
  2,567
  2,856
  3,150
  3,449
  3,752
  4,059
  4,370
  4,684
  5,004
  5,328
  5,660
  5,998
  6,346
  6,703
  7,071
  7,452
  7,846
  8,256
  8,682
  9,125
  9,589
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -36
  520
  693
  869
  1,064
  1,281
  1,515
  1,765
  2,028
  2,303
  2,585
  2,876
  3,172
  3,473
  3,777
  4,086
  4,399
  4,714
  5,036
  5,361
  5,695
  6,034
  6,384
  6,742
  7,112
  7,494
  7,890
  8,302
  8,730
  9,175
  9,641
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  22
  -279
  -352
  -444
  -550
  -669
  -800
  -943
  -1,096
  -1,259
  -1,431
  -1,611
  -1,798
  -1,992
  -2,192
  -2,398
  -2,611
  -2,830
  -3,055
  -3,286
  -3,525
  -3,771
  -4,025
  -4,287
  -4,559
  -4,840
  -5,132
  -5,436
  -5,751
  -6,079
  -6,421
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -168
  -266
  -337
  -417
  -506
  -602
  -703
  -809
  -917
  -1,027
  -1,136
  -1,245
  -1,352
  -1,458
  -1,560
  -1,661
  -1,759
  -1,854
  -1,949
  -2,042
  -2,135
  -2,227
  -2,321
  -2,415
  -2,512
  -2,611
  -2,714
  -2,820
  -2,931
  -3,046
  -3,167
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  29
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  58.1
  34.3
  20.9
  13.1
  8.5
  5.6
  3.8
  2.6
  1.9
  1.3
  1.0
  0.7
  0.5
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Sandstorm Gold Ltd., a resource-based company, focuses on acquiring gold and other precious metal purchase agreements and royalties from companies that have advanced stage development projects or operating mines. The company offers upfront payments for companies to acquire a gold stream in return, it receives the right to purchase a percentage of a mine's production for the life of the mine at a fixed price per unit. It has 132 gold streams and net smelter returns royalties. The company was formerly known as Sandstorm Resources Ltd. and changed its name to Sandstorm Gold Ltd. in February 2011. Sandstorm Gold Ltd. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Sandstorm Gold Ltd. (SSL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 22
Price to Sales 8.9
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 19.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 18.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -94.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -31%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.5%
Return On Total Capital 5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.5%
Return On Equity 5.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.7%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 35.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.6%
EBITDA Margin 92.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.2%
Operating Margin 47.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 47.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0%
Net Profit Margin 40.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.7%
Effective Tax Rate 15%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -11.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

SSL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SSL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $84 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Sandstorm Gold Ltd.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Sandstorm Gold Ltd.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SSL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 38.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SSL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Sandstorm Gold Ltd., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Sandstorm Gold Ltd..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SSL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 164.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SSL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Sandstorm Gold Ltd..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Sandstorm Gold Ltd.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SSL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SSL are equal to 657.7%.

Life of production assets of 14.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Sandstorm Gold Ltd. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SSL is equal to 3.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $712 million for Sandstorm Gold Ltd. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 151.539 million for Sandstorm Gold Ltd. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Sandstorm Gold Ltd. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.


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Stock chart of SSL Financial statements of SSL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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