Intrinsic value of Silver Standard Resources Inc. - SSO

Previous Close

$12.05

  Intrinsic Value

$2.43

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-80%

  Value-price divergence*

-11%

Previous close

$12.05

 
Intrinsic value

$2.43

 
Up/down potential

-80%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-11%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SSO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  30.77
  16.10
  14.99
  13.99
  13.09
  12.28
  11.55
  10.90
  10.31
  9.78
  9.30
  8.87
  8.48
  8.13
  7.82
  7.54
  7.29
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
Revenue, $m
  663
  770
  885
  1,009
  1,141
  1,281
  1,429
  1,585
  1,748
  1,919
  2,098
  2,284
  2,478
  2,679
  2,889
  3,107
  3,333
  3,568
  3,813
  4,067
  4,331
  4,606
  4,892
  5,191
  5,501
  5,825
  6,163
  6,515
  6,883
  7,267
  7,668
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  915
  1,051
  1,197
  1,353
  1,518
  1,693
  1,877
  2,070
  2,271
  2,482
  2,695
  2,923
  3,161
  3,409
  3,666
  3,933
  4,210
  4,499
  4,798
  5,110
  5,435
  5,773
  6,124
  6,491
  6,873
  7,271
  7,687
  8,121
  8,574
  9,048
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  515
  915
  1,051
  1,197
  1,353
  1,518
  1,693
  1,877
  2,070
  2,271
  2,482
  2,695
  2,923
  3,161
  3,409
  3,666
  3,933
  4,210
  4,499
  4,798
  5,110
  5,435
  5,773
  6,124
  6,491
  6,873
  7,271
  7,687
  8,121
  8,574
  9,048
Operating income, $m
  149
  -145
  -166
  -188
  -212
  -237
  -264
  -292
  -321
  -352
  -384
  -411
  -446
  -482
  -520
  -559
  -600
  -642
  -686
  -732
  -779
  -829
  -880
  -934
  -990
  -1,048
  -1,109
  -1,172
  -1,238
  -1,307
  -1,379
EBITDA, $m
  252
  -25
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -42
  -46
  -51
  -57
  -62
  -68
  -74
  -80
  -87
  -94
  -101
  -108
  -116
  -124
  -132
  -141
  -150
  -159
  -169
  -179
  -189
  -200
  -212
  -223
  -236
  -249
Interest expense (income), $m
  11
  11
  16
  20
  26
  31
  37
  43
  50
  56
  63
  71
  79
  87
  95
  104
  113
  122
  132
  142
  153
  163
  175
  187
  199
  212
  225
  239
  254
  269
  285
Earnings before tax, $m
  109
  -156
  -182
  -209
  -238
  -268
  -301
  -335
  -371
  -408
  -447
  -482
  -524
  -569
  -615
  -663
  -712
  -764
  -818
  -874
  -932
  -992
  -1,055
  -1,121
  -1,189
  -1,260
  -1,334
  -1,411
  -1,492
  -1,577
  -1,665
Tax expense, $m
  21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  88
  -156
  -182
  -209
  -238
  -268
  -301
  -335
  -371
  -408
  -447
  -482
  -524
  -569
  -615
  -663
  -712
  -764
  -818
  -874
  -932
  -992
  -1,055
  -1,121
  -1,189
  -1,260
  -1,334
  -1,411
  -1,492
  -1,577
  -1,665

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  643
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,944
  1,509
  1,736
  1,978
  2,237
  2,512
  2,802
  3,108
  3,428
  3,764
  4,114
  4,478
  4,858
  5,254
  5,664
  6,092
  6,535
  6,996
  7,476
  7,974
  8,492
  9,032
  9,593
  10,177
  10,786
  11,421
  12,083
  12,774
  13,495
  14,249
  15,035
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,301
  1,509
  1,736
  1,978
  2,237
  2,512
  2,802
  3,108
  3,428
  3,764
  4,114
  4,478
  4,858
  5,254
  5,664
  6,092
  6,535
  6,996
  7,476
  7,974
  8,492
  9,032
  9,593
  10,177
  10,786
  11,421
  12,083
  12,774
  13,495
  14,249
  15,035
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
Average production assets, $m
  684
  794
  913
  1,041
  1,178
  1,322
  1,475
  1,636
  1,804
  1,981
  2,165
  2,357
  2,557
  2,765
  2,981
  3,206
  3,440
  3,682
  3,935
  4,197
  4,470
  4,754
  5,049
  5,357
  5,677
  6,011
  6,360
  6,723
  7,103
  7,499
  7,913
Working capital, $m
  756
  131
  150
  172
  194
  218
  243
  269
  297
  326
  357
  388
  421
  455
  491
  528
  567
  607
  648
  691
  736
  783
  832
  882
  935
  990
  1,048
  1,108
  1,170
  1,235
  1,304
Total debt, $m
  297
  413
  539
  674
  818
  971
  1,133
  1,303
  1,482
  1,668
  1,863
  2,066
  2,278
  2,498
  2,727
  2,965
  3,212
  3,469
  3,736
  4,014
  4,302
  4,603
  4,915
  5,241
  5,580
  5,934
  6,302
  6,687
  7,089
  7,508
  7,947
Total liabilities, $m
  725
  841
  967
  1,102
  1,246
  1,399
  1,561
  1,731
  1,910
  2,096
  2,291
  2,494
  2,706
  2,926
  3,155
  3,393
  3,640
  3,897
  4,164
  4,442
  4,730
  5,031
  5,343
  5,669
  6,008
  6,362
  6,730
  7,115
  7,517
  7,936
  8,375
Total equity, $m
  1,219
  669
  769
  876
  991
  1,113
  1,241
  1,377
  1,519
  1,667
  1,822
  1,984
  2,152
  2,327
  2,509
  2,699
  2,895
  3,099
  3,312
  3,533
  3,762
  4,001
  4,250
  4,509
  4,778
  5,060
  5,353
  5,659
  5,978
  6,312
  6,661
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,944
  1,510
  1,736
  1,978
  2,237
  2,512
  2,802
  3,108
  3,429
  3,763
  4,113
  4,478
  4,858
  5,253
  5,664
  6,092
  6,535
  6,996
  7,476
  7,975
  8,492
  9,032
  9,593
  10,178
  10,786
  11,422
  12,083
  12,774
  13,495
  14,248
  15,036
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.244
  0.620
  0.700
  0.770
  0.830
  0.870
  0.910
  0.950
  0.980
  1.000
  1.020
  1.040
  1.060
  1.070
  1.090
  1.100
  1.110
  1.120
  1.130
  1.140
  1.140
  1.150
  1.160
  1.160
  1.170
  1.170
  1.180
  1.180
  1.190
  1.190
  1.190
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  88
  -156
  -182
  -209
  -238
  -268
  -301
  -335
  -371
  -408
  -447
  -482
  -524
  -569
  -615
  -663
  -712
  -764
  -818
  -874
  -932
  -992
  -1,055
  -1,121
  -1,189
  -1,260
  -1,334
  -1,411
  -1,492
  -1,577
  -1,665
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  103
  120
  137
  155
  175
  196
  217
  240
  264
  290
  316
  337
  365
  395
  426
  458
  491
  526
  562
  600
  639
  679
  721
  765
  811
  859
  909
  960
  1,015
  1,071
  1,130
Funds from operations, $m
  205
  -36
  -44
  -53
  -63
  -73
  -83
  -95
  -106
  -119
  -132
  -145
  -159
  -174
  -189
  -204
  -221
  -238
  -256
  -274
  -293
  -313
  -334
  -355
  -378
  -401
  -426
  -451
  -478
  -505
  -534
Change in working capital, $m
  -26
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  63
  65
  68
Cash from operations, $m
  231
  -54
  -64
  -74
  -85
  -97
  -108
  -121
  -134
  -148
  -162
  -177
  -192
  -208
  -224
  -242
  -259
  -278
  -297
  -317
  -338
  -360
  -382
  -406
  -431
  -456
  -483
  -511
  -540
  -571
  -602
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -98
  -113
  -130
  -149
  -168
  -189
  -211
  -234
  -258
  -283
  -309
  -337
  -365
  -395
  -426
  -458
  -491
  -526
  -562
  -600
  -639
  -679
  -721
  -765
  -811
  -859
  -909
  -960
  -1,015
  -1,071
New CAPEX, $m
  -65
  -110
  -119
  -128
  -136
  -145
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -176
  -184
  -192
  -200
  -208
  -216
  -225
  -234
  -243
  -252
  -262
  -273
  -284
  -295
  -308
  -321
  -334
  -348
  -364
  -380
  -396
  -414
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -58
  -208
  -232
  -258
  -285
  -313
  -342
  -372
  -403
  -434
  -467
  -501
  -537
  -573
  -611
  -651
  -692
  -734
  -778
  -824
  -873
  -923
  -974
  -1,029
  -1,086
  -1,145
  -1,207
  -1,273
  -1,340
  -1,411
  -1,485
Free cash flow, $m
  173
  -263
  -297
  -333
  -370
  -409
  -450
  -492
  -536
  -582
  -629
  -678
  -729
  -781
  -836
  -892
  -951
  -1,012
  -1,076
  -1,142
  -1,210
  -1,282
  -1,357
  -1,435
  -1,516
  -1,601
  -1,690
  -1,783
  -1,880
  -1,982
  -2,088
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -24
  116
  126
  135
  144
  153
  162
  170
  178
  187
  195
  203
  212
  220
  229
  238
  247
  257
  267
  278
  289
  300
  313
  326
  339
  354
  369
  385
  402
  420
  438
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  9
  249
  282
  316
  352
  390
  429
  470
  513
  557
  603
  643
  693
  744
  797
  852
  909
  968
  1,030
  1,094
  1,161
  1,231
  1,304
  1,379
  1,459
  1,541
  1,627
  1,718
  1,812
  1,910
  2,013
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -15
  365
  408
  451
  496
  543
  591
  640
  691
  744
  798
  846
  905
  964
  1,026
  1,090
  1,156
  1,225
  1,297
  1,372
  1,450
  1,531
  1,617
  1,705
  1,798
  1,895
  1,996
  2,103
  2,214
  2,330
  2,451
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  156
  102
  111
  119
  126
  134
  141
  148
  155
  162
  168
  169
  176
  183
  190
  197
  205
  213
  222
  230
  240
  249
  259
  270
  281
  293
  306
  319
  333
  348
  364
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -615
  -249
  -282
  -316
  -352
  -390
  -429
  -470
  -513
  -557
  -603
  -643
  -693
  -744
  -797
  -852
  -909
  -968
  -1,030
  -1,094
  -1,161
  -1,231
  -1,304
  -1,379
  -1,459
  -1,541
  -1,627
  -1,718
  -1,812
  -1,910
  -2,013
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  643
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  496
  -171
  -197
  -226
  -256
  -288
  -322
  -358
  -395
  -434
  -475
  -517
  -561
  -607
  -654
  -704
  -755
  -809
  -864
  -922
  -982
  -1,044
  -1,109
  -1,177
  -1,248
  -1,321
  -1,398
  -1,478
  -1,562
  -1,650
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  476
  -156
  -172
  -186
  -199
  -209
  -218
  -224
  -227
  -228
  -225
  -221
  -213
  -204
  -192
  -179
  -164
  -149
  -133
  -117
  -102
  -87
  -73
  -60
  -49
  -39
  -30
  -23
  -17
  -12
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  73.0
  53.7
  39.8
  29.6
  22.2
  16.7
  12.6
  9.6
  7.3
  5.6
  4.3
  3.3
  2.5
  2.0
  1.5
  1.2
  0.9
  0.7
  0.6
  0.4
  0.3
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0

Silver Standard Resources Inc. engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of precious metal resource properties in the Americas. The company primarily explores for gold, silver, zinc, and lead deposits. Its principal projects include the Marigold mine located in Humboldt County, Nevada, the United States; and the Pirquitas mine located in the province of Jujuy, northern Argentina. The company was formerly known as Consolidated Silver Standard Mines Limited and changed its name to Silver Standard Resources Inc. in April 1990. Silver Standard Resources Inc. was founded in 1946 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Silver Standard Resources Inc. (SSO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16.3
Price to Sales 2.2
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 8.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 30.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 24.4%
Total Debt to Equity 24.4%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.9%
Return On Total Capital 7.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.4%
Return On Equity 9.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -11.5%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 32.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17%
EBITDA Margin 33.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Operating Margin 22.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 16.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.3%
Net Profit Margin 13.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -20.7%
Effective Tax Rate 19.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

SSO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SSO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $663 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Silver Standard Resources Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Silver Standard Resources Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SSO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 16.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SSO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Silver Standard Resources Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Silver Standard Resources Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SSO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 119%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SSO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.8% for Silver Standard Resources Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Silver Standard Resources Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SSO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SSO are equal to 103.2%.

Life of production assets of 7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Silver Standard Resources Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SSO is equal to 17%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1219 million for Silver Standard Resources Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 118.502 million for Silver Standard Resources Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Silver Standard Resources Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.4 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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Stock chart of SSO Financial statements of SSO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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