Intrinsic value of TFI International Inc. - TFII

Previous Close

$29.74

  Intrinsic Value

$59.77

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+101%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$29.74

 
Intrinsic value

$59.77

 
Up/down potential

+101%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TFII stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -0.12
  25.50
  23.45
  21.61
  19.94
  18.45
  17.11
  15.89
  14.81
  13.82
  12.94
  12.15
  11.43
  10.79
  10.21
  9.69
  9.22
  8.80
  8.42
  8.08
  7.77
  7.49
  7.24
  7.02
  6.82
  6.64
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.97
Revenue, $m
  4,025
  5,051
  6,236
  7,583
  9,096
  10,774
  12,617
  14,622
  16,787
  19,107
  21,580
  24,202
  26,969
  29,879
  32,930
  36,121
  39,451
  42,922
  46,536
  50,295
  54,202
  58,263
  62,483
  66,869
  71,427
  76,166
  81,096
  86,225
  91,564
  97,124
  102,918
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  4,665
  5,724
  6,929
  8,281
  9,782
  11,430
  13,223
  15,158
  17,233
  19,445
  21,640
  24,114
  26,716
  29,444
  32,297
  35,275
  38,379
  41,610
  44,971
  48,465
  52,096
  55,870
  59,791
  63,867
  68,105
  72,512
  77,098
  81,872
  86,844
  92,025
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,767
  4,665
  5,724
  6,929
  8,281
  9,782
  11,430
  13,223
  15,158
  17,233
  19,445
  21,640
  24,114
  26,716
  29,444
  32,297
  35,275
  38,379
  41,610
  44,971
  48,465
  52,096
  55,870
  59,791
  63,867
  68,105
  72,512
  77,098
  81,872
  86,844
  92,025
Operating income, $m
  258
  386
  512
  654
  814
  992
  1,187
  1,399
  1,628
  1,874
  2,136
  2,562
  2,855
  3,163
  3,485
  3,823
  4,176
  4,543
  4,926
  5,323
  5,737
  6,167
  6,614
  7,078
  7,560
  8,062
  8,584
  9,126
  9,692
  10,280
  10,893
EBITDA, $m
  451
  669
  826
  1,005
  1,205
  1,427
  1,671
  1,937
  2,224
  2,531
  2,859
  3,206
  3,573
  3,958
  4,362
  4,785
  5,226
  5,686
  6,165
  6,662
  7,180
  7,718
  8,277
  8,858
  9,462
  10,090
  10,743
  11,422
  12,129
  12,866
  13,633
Interest expense (income), $m
  43
  55
  79
  105
  136
  170
  208
  250
  295
  344
  397
  453
  513
  575
  641
  710
  783
  858
  937
  1,019
  1,104
  1,192
  1,284
  1,380
  1,479
  1,583
  1,690
  1,802
  1,918
  2,039
  2,165
Earnings before tax, $m
  203
  331
  433
  549
  679
  822
  979
  1,149
  1,333
  1,530
  1,739
  2,109
  2,342
  2,587
  2,844
  3,113
  3,393
  3,685
  3,989
  4,305
  4,633
  4,974
  5,329
  5,698
  6,081
  6,479
  6,893
  7,325
  7,773
  8,241
  8,728
Tax expense, $m
  46
  89
  117
  148
  183
  222
  264
  310
  360
  413
  469
  569
  632
  699
  768
  840
  916
  995
  1,077
  1,162
  1,251
  1,343
  1,439
  1,538
  1,642
  1,749
  1,861
  1,978
  2,099
  2,225
  2,357
Net income, $m
  640
  242
  316
  401
  495
  600
  715
  839
  973
  1,117
  1,269
  1,539
  1,710
  1,889
  2,076
  2,272
  2,477
  2,690
  2,912
  3,142
  3,382
  3,631
  3,890
  4,159
  4,439
  4,730
  5,032
  5,347
  5,675
  6,016
  6,372

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,071
  5,102
  6,299
  7,660
  9,187
  10,883
  12,744
  14,770
  16,956
  19,300
  21,798
  24,446
  27,241
  30,181
  33,262
  36,485
  39,850
  43,356
  47,006
  50,803
  54,750
  58,852
  63,114
  67,544
  72,149
  76,936
  81,915
  87,096
  92,489
  98,105
  103,958
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,067
  5,102
  6,299
  7,660
  9,187
  10,883
  12,744
  14,770
  16,956
  19,300
  21,798
  24,446
  27,241
  30,181
  33,262
  36,485
  39,850
  43,356
  47,006
  50,803
  54,750
  58,852
  63,114
  67,544
  72,149
  76,936
  81,915
  87,096
  92,489
  98,105
  103,958
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
Average production assets, $m
  1,650
  2,071
  2,557
  3,109
  3,729
  4,417
  5,173
  5,995
  6,883
  7,834
  8,848
  9,923
  11,057
  12,250
  13,501
  14,809
  16,175
  17,598
  19,080
  20,621
  22,223
  23,888
  25,618
  27,416
  29,285
  31,228
  33,249
  35,352
  37,541
  39,821
  42,196
Working capital, $m
  57
  116
  143
  174
  209
  248
  290
  336
  386
  439
  496
  557
  620
  687
  757
  831
  907
  987
  1,070
  1,157
  1,247
  1,340
  1,437
  1,538
  1,643
  1,752
  1,865
  1,983
  2,106
  2,234
  2,367
Total debt, $m
  1,585
  2,244
  3,011
  3,883
  4,862
  5,949
  7,142
  8,440
  9,842
  11,345
  12,946
  14,643
  16,435
  18,319
  20,294
  22,360
  24,517
  26,764
  29,104
  31,537
  34,068
  36,697
  39,429
  42,269
  45,220
  48,289
  51,480
  54,801
  58,258
  61,859
  65,610
Total liabilities, $m
  2,613
  3,271
  4,038
  4,910
  5,889
  6,976
  8,169
  9,467
  10,869
  12,372
  13,973
  15,670
  17,462
  19,346
  21,321
  23,387
  25,544
  27,791
  30,131
  32,564
  35,095
  37,724
  40,456
  43,296
  46,247
  49,316
  52,507
  55,828
  59,285
  62,886
  66,637
Total equity, $m
  1,459
  1,832
  2,261
  2,750
  3,298
  3,907
  4,575
  5,302
  6,087
  6,929
  7,826
  8,776
  9,780
  10,835
  11,941
  13,098
  14,306
  15,565
  16,875
  18,238
  19,655
  21,128
  22,658
  24,248
  25,901
  27,620
  29,407
  31,267
  33,203
  35,220
  37,321
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,072
  5,103
  6,299
  7,660
  9,187
  10,883
  12,744
  14,769
  16,956
  19,301
  21,799
  24,446
  27,242
  30,181
  33,262
  36,485
  39,850
  43,356
  47,006
  50,802
  54,750
  58,852
  63,114
  67,544
  72,148
  76,936
  81,914
  87,095
  92,488
  98,106
  103,958
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.086
  1.220
  1.330
  1.410
  1.470
  1.520
  1.560
  1.590
  1.620
  1.640
  1.650
  1.670
  1.680
  1.690
  1.700
  1.710
  1.710
  1.720
  1.720
  1.730
  1.730
  1.740
  1.740
  1.740
  1.750
  1.750
  1.750
  1.750
  1.750
  1.760
  1.760
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.358
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  640
  242
  316
  401
  495
  600
  715
  839
  973
  1,117
  1,269
  1,539
  1,710
  1,889
  2,076
  2,272
  2,477
  2,690
  2,912
  3,142
  3,382
  3,631
  3,890
  4,159
  4,439
  4,730
  5,032
  5,347
  5,675
  6,016
  6,372
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  193
  283
  314
  350
  390
  435
  484
  538
  595
  657
  723
  644
  718
  795
  877
  962
  1,050
  1,143
  1,239
  1,339
  1,443
  1,551
  1,664
  1,780
  1,902
  2,028
  2,159
  2,296
  2,438
  2,586
  2,740
Funds from operations, $m
  231
  524
  631
  751
  886
  1,035
  1,199
  1,377
  1,568
  1,774
  1,992
  2,184
  2,428
  2,684
  2,953
  3,234
  3,527
  3,833
  4,151
  4,482
  4,825
  5,183
  5,554
  5,940
  6,341
  6,758
  7,191
  7,643
  8,112
  8,602
  9,112
Change in working capital, $m
  -105
  24
  27
  31
  35
  39
  42
  46
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  113
  118
  123
  128
  133
Cash from operations, $m
  336
  501
  603
  720
  851
  997
  1,156
  1,331
  1,519
  1,720
  1,935
  2,123
  2,364
  2,617
  2,883
  3,161
  3,451
  3,753
  4,068
  4,395
  4,735
  5,089
  5,457
  5,839
  6,236
  6,649
  7,078
  7,525
  7,990
  8,474
  8,978
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -107
  -134
  -166
  -202
  -242
  -287
  -336
  -389
  -447
  -509
  -575
  -644
  -718
  -795
  -877
  -962
  -1,050
  -1,143
  -1,239
  -1,339
  -1,443
  -1,551
  -1,664
  -1,780
  -1,902
  -2,028
  -2,159
  -2,296
  -2,438
  -2,586
New CAPEX, $m
  -112
  -422
  -486
  -552
  -620
  -688
  -756
  -822
  -888
  -951
  -1,014
  -1,075
  -1,134
  -1,193
  -1,251
  -1,308
  -1,366
  -1,423
  -1,482
  -1,541
  -1,602
  -1,665
  -1,730
  -1,798
  -1,869
  -1,943
  -2,021
  -2,103
  -2,189
  -2,280
  -2,376
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -95
  -529
  -620
  -718
  -822
  -930
  -1,043
  -1,158
  -1,277
  -1,398
  -1,523
  -1,650
  -1,778
  -1,911
  -2,046
  -2,185
  -2,328
  -2,473
  -2,625
  -2,780
  -2,941
  -3,108
  -3,281
  -3,462
  -3,649
  -3,845
  -4,049
  -4,262
  -4,485
  -4,718
  -4,962
Free cash flow, $m
  241
  -28
  -17
  2
  29
  66
  114
  172
  242
  322
  413
  474
  585
  706
  837
  976
  1,123
  1,279
  1,443
  1,615
  1,794
  1,981
  2,175
  2,377
  2,587
  2,804
  3,029
  3,263
  3,505
  3,756
  4,017
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -26
  663
  767
  872
  979
  1,087
  1,193
  1,298
  1,402
  1,503
  1,601
  1,697
  1,792
  1,884
  1,975
  2,066
  2,156
  2,248
  2,340
  2,434
  2,530
  2,629
  2,732
  2,840
  2,951
  3,069
  3,192
  3,321
  3,457
  3,600
  3,751
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -145
  131
  113
  88
  53
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -174
  794
  880
  960
  1,032
  1,096
  1,193
  1,298
  1,402
  1,503
  1,601
  1,697
  1,792
  1,884
  1,975
  2,066
  2,156
  2,248
  2,340
  2,434
  2,530
  2,629
  2,732
  2,840
  2,951
  3,069
  3,192
  3,321
  3,457
  3,600
  3,751
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  68
  766
  863
  962
  1,061
  1,161
  1,307
  1,471
  1,643
  1,824
  2,014
  2,171
  2,377
  2,590
  2,812
  3,042
  3,280
  3,527
  3,783
  4,049
  4,324
  4,610
  4,908
  5,217
  5,538
  5,872
  6,221
  6,584
  6,962
  7,357
  7,769
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -432
  -373
  -430
  -489
  -548
  -609
  -668
  -727
  -785
  -842
  -897
  -951
  -1,003
  -1,055
  -1,106
  -1,157
  -1,208
  -1,259
  -1,310
  -1,363
  -1,417
  -1,473
  -1,530
  -1,590
  -1,653
  -1,719
  -1,787
  -1,860
  -1,936
  -2,016
  -2,101
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  393
  434
  473
  513
  553
  639
  744
  858
  983
  1,117
  1,221
  1,373
  1,535
  1,706
  1,885
  2,072
  2,268
  2,473
  2,686
  2,907
  3,138
  3,377
  3,626
  3,885
  4,154
  4,433
  4,724
  5,026
  5,340
  5,668
Discount rate, %
 
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.68
  9.12
  9.57
  10.05
  10.55
  11.08
  11.63
  12.22
  12.83
  13.47
  14.14
  14.85
  15.59
  16.37
  17.19
  18.05
  18.95
  19.90
  20.89
  21.94
  23.04
  24.19
  25.40
  26.67
  28.00
  29.40
  30.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  366
  373
  373
  368
  357
  369
  380
  385
  382
  372
  344
  323
  297
  268
  236
  204
  172
  142
  115
  90
  69
  52
  38
  27
  18
  12
  8
  5
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  95.5
  92.4
  90.6
  89.7
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  TFI International Inc. (TFII)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 4.3
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -29.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 105.8%
Total Debt to Equity 108.6%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 18.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Return On Total Capital 22.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Return On Equity 51.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.1%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 41.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.6%
EBITDA Margin 10.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Operating Margin 6.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Net Profit Margin 15.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Effective Tax Rate 22.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.3%
Payout Ratio 10%

TFII stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TFII stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4025 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by TFI International Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of TFI International Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TFII stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 25.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.5%, whose default value for TFII is calculated based on our internal credit rating of TFI International Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of TFI International Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TFII stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TFII stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for TFI International Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for TFI International Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TFII stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TFII are equal to 41%.

Life of production assets of 15.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in TFI International Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TFII is equal to 2.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1459 million for TFI International Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 92.765 million for TFI International Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of TFI International Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.8 billion.

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Stock chart of TFII Financial statements of TFII
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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