Intrinsic value of Tourmaline Oil Corp. - TOU

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$27.61

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$27.61

 
Intrinsic value

$6.30

 
Up/down potential

-77%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TOU stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 7.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -14.54
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,093
  1,115
  1,141
  1,170
  1,203
  1,239
  1,279
  1,323
  1,370
  1,421
  1,475
  1,534
  1,596
  1,662
  1,733
  1,807
  1,886
  1,970
  2,059
  2,153
  2,252
  2,356
  2,466
  2,582
  2,704
  2,833
  2,968
  3,111
  3,261
  3,419
  3,585
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  935
  957
  981
  1,009
  1,040
  1,073
  1,110
  1,149
  1,192
  1,238
  1,287
  1,339
  1,394
  1,454
  1,516
  1,583
  1,653
  1,727
  1,806
  1,889
  1,977
  2,069
  2,166
  2,269
  2,377
  2,491
  2,610
  2,736
  2,869
  3,008
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,080
  935
  957
  981
  1,009
  1,040
  1,073
  1,110
  1,149
  1,192
  1,238
  1,287
  1,339
  1,394
  1,454
  1,516
  1,583
  1,653
  1,727
  1,806
  1,889
  1,977
  2,069
  2,166
  2,269
  2,377
  2,491
  2,610
  2,736
  2,869
  3,008
Operating income, $m
  13
  179
  184
  188
  194
  200
  206
  213
  221
  229
  238
  247
  257
  268
  279
  291
  304
  317
  331
  347
  362
  379
  397
  416
  435
  456
  478
  501
  525
  550
  577
EBITDA, $m
  679
  861
  881
  904
  929
  957
  988
  1,022
  1,058
  1,098
  1,140
  1,185
  1,233
  1,284
  1,339
  1,396
  1,458
  1,522
  1,591
  1,663
  1,740
  1,820
  1,905
  1,995
  2,089
  2,189
  2,294
  2,404
  2,520
  2,642
  2,770
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  77
  81
  86
  91
  97
  103
  109
  116
  123
  130
  138
  146
  155
  164
  174
  184
  195
  206
  218
  231
  244
Earnings before tax, $m
  -36
  130
  133
  135
  138
  141
  145
  148
  152
  156
  161
  166
  171
  176
  182
  188
  195
  202
  209
  216
  225
  233
  242
  251
  261
  272
  283
  295
  307
  320
  333
Tax expense, $m
  -3
  35
  36
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  65
  68
  71
  73
  76
  80
  83
  86
  90
Net income, $m
  -32
  95
  97
  99
  101
  103
  105
  108
  111
  114
  117
  121
  125
  129
  133
  137
  142
  147
  152
  158
  164
  170
  177
  184
  191
  199
  207
  215
  224
  233
  243

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  9,358
  9,529
  9,748
  9,998
  10,280
  10,591
  10,933
  11,306
  11,709
  12,143
  12,609
  13,107
  13,639
  14,206
  14,808
  15,447
  16,123
  16,840
  17,598
  18,398
  19,244
  20,136
  21,076
  22,068
  23,113
  24,213
  25,372
  26,591
  27,874
  29,224
  30,644
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  9,358
  9,529
  9,748
  9,998
  10,280
  10,591
  10,933
  11,306
  11,709
  12,143
  12,609
  13,107
  13,639
  14,206
  14,808
  15,447
  16,123
  16,840
  17,598
  18,398
  19,244
  20,136
  21,076
  22,068
  23,113
  24,213
  25,372
  26,591
  27,874
  29,224
  30,644
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
Average production assets, $m
  7,621
  7,774
  7,953
  8,157
  8,387
  8,641
  8,920
  9,224
  9,552
  9,907
  10,287
  10,694
  11,128
  11,590
  12,081
  12,602
  13,154
  13,739
  14,357
  15,010
  15,700
  16,428
  17,195
  18,004
  18,856
  19,754
  20,699
  21,694
  22,741
  23,842
  25,001
Working capital, $m
  -224
  -229
  -234
  -240
  -247
  -254
  -262
  -271
  -281
  -291
  -302
  -314
  -327
  -341
  -355
  -370
  -387
  -404
  -422
  -441
  -462
  -483
  -506
  -529
  -554
  -581
  -609
  -638
  -669
  -701
  -735
Total debt, $m
  1,407
  1,458
  1,519
  1,590
  1,668
  1,756
  1,851
  1,956
  2,068
  2,190
  2,320
  2,460
  2,609
  2,768
  2,936
  3,115
  3,305
  3,505
  3,717
  3,942
  4,178
  4,428
  4,691
  4,969
  5,262
  5,570
  5,894
  6,235
  6,595
  6,973
  7,370
Total liabilities, $m
  2,617
  2,668
  2,729
  2,800
  2,878
  2,966
  3,061
  3,166
  3,278
  3,400
  3,530
  3,670
  3,819
  3,978
  4,146
  4,325
  4,515
  4,715
  4,927
  5,152
  5,388
  5,638
  5,901
  6,179
  6,472
  6,780
  7,104
  7,445
  7,805
  8,183
  8,580
Total equity, $m
  6,741
  6,861
  7,018
  7,199
  7,401
  7,626
  7,872
  8,140
  8,430
  8,743
  9,078
  9,437
  9,820
  10,228
  10,662
  11,122
  11,609
  12,125
  12,670
  13,247
  13,856
  14,498
  15,175
  15,889
  16,641
  17,433
  18,268
  19,146
  20,069
  21,041
  22,064
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  9,358
  9,529
  9,747
  9,999
  10,279
  10,592
  10,933
  11,306
  11,708
  12,143
  12,608
  13,107
  13,639
  14,206
  14,808
  15,447
  16,124
  16,840
  17,597
  18,399
  19,244
  20,136
  21,076
  22,068
  23,113
  24,213
  25,372
  26,591
  27,874
  29,224
  30,644
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.209
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
  0.230
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
  0.250
  0.250
  0.260
  0.260
  0.270
  0.270
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.290
  0.290
  0.300
  0.300
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -32
  95
  97
  99
  101
  103
  105
  108
  111
  114
  117
  121
  125
  129
  133
  137
  142
  147
  152
  158
  164
  170
  177
  184
  191
  199
  207
  215
  224
  233
  243
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  666
  682
  698
  716
  736
  758
  782
  809
  838
  869
  902
  938
  976
  1,017
  1,060
  1,105
  1,154
  1,205
  1,259
  1,317
  1,377
  1,441
  1,508
  1,579
  1,654
  1,733
  1,816
  1,903
  1,995
  2,091
  2,193
Funds from operations, $m
  662
  777
  794
  814
  836
  861
  888
  917
  949
  983
  1,020
  1,059
  1,101
  1,145
  1,193
  1,243
  1,296
  1,352
  1,412
  1,475
  1,541
  1,611
  1,685
  1,763
  1,845
  1,931
  2,022
  2,118
  2,219
  2,325
  2,436
Change in working capital, $m
  -35
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
Cash from operations, $m
  697
  1,618
  800
  820
  843
  868
  896
  926
  959
  994
  1,031
  1,071
  1,114
  1,159
  1,207
  1,258
  1,312
  1,369
  1,430
  1,494
  1,561
  1,633
  1,708
  1,787
  1,870
  1,958
  2,050
  2,147
  2,250
  2,357
  2,470
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -669
  -682
  -698
  -716
  -736
  -758
  -782
  -809
  -838
  -869
  -902
  -938
  -976
  -1,017
  -1,060
  -1,105
  -1,154
  -1,205
  -1,259
  -1,317
  -1,377
  -1,441
  -1,508
  -1,579
  -1,654
  -1,733
  -1,816
  -1,903
  -1,995
  -2,091
New CAPEX, $m
  -1,981
  -153
  -179
  -204
  -229
  -254
  -279
  -304
  -329
  -354
  -380
  -407
  -434
  -462
  -491
  -521
  -552
  -585
  -618
  -653
  -690
  -728
  -767
  -809
  -852
  -898
  -945
  -995
  -1,047
  -1,101
  -1,158
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,998
  -822
  -861
  -902
  -945
  -990
  -1,037
  -1,086
  -1,138
  -1,192
  -1,249
  -1,309
  -1,372
  -1,438
  -1,508
  -1,581
  -1,657
  -1,739
  -1,823
  -1,912
  -2,007
  -2,105
  -2,208
  -2,317
  -2,431
  -2,552
  -2,678
  -2,811
  -2,950
  -3,096
  -3,249
Free cash flow, $m
  -1,301
  797
  -61
  -82
  -102
  -121
  -141
  -160
  -179
  -199
  -218
  -238
  -258
  -279
  -301
  -323
  -345
  -369
  -393
  -419
  -445
  -472
  -501
  -531
  -562
  -594
  -628
  -663
  -700
  -739
  -780
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  140
  51
  61
  70
  79
  87
  96
  104
  113
  122
  130
  140
  149
  159
  169
  179
  190
  201
  212
  224
  237
  250
  263
  278
  293
  308
  324
  341
  359
  378
  398
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1,206
  0
  157
  192
  226
  259
  291
  324
  357
  390
  423
  458
  493
  529
  566
  604
  643
  684
  727
  771
  817
  865
  915
  967
  1,021
  1,078
  1,138
  1,200
  1,265
  1,333
  1,404
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1,301
  51
  218
  262
  305
  346
  387
  428
  470
  512
  553
  598
  642
  688
  735
  783
  833
  885
  939
  995
  1,054
  1,115
  1,178
  1,245
  1,314
  1,386
  1,462
  1,541
  1,624
  1,711
  1,802
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  848
  0
  -12
  -23
  -34
  -45
  -56
  -66
  -77
  -88
  -99
  -110
  -121
  -132
  -144
  -156
  -168
  -181
  -195
  -208
  -223
  -237
  -253
  -269
  -286
  -303
  -322
  -341
  -361
  -382
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -1,538
  -120
  -158
  -180
  -203
  -224
  -246
  -268
  -290
  -313
  -336
  -359
  -383
  -408
  -433
  -460
  -487
  -516
  -546
  -576
  -609
  -642
  -677
  -714
  -752
  -792
  -834
  -878
  -924
  -972
  -1,022
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  728
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  4.40
  4.62
  4.85
  5.09
  5.35
  5.62
  5.90
  6.19
  6.50
  6.83
  7.17
  7.53
  7.90
  8.30
  8.71
  9.15
  9.60
  10.08
  10.59
  11.12
  11.67
  12.26
  12.87
  13.51
  14.19
  14.90
  15.64
  16.43
  17.25
  18.11
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  698
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  97.9
  95.6
  92.9
  90.0
  87.0
  83.9
  80.6
  77.4
  74.1
  70.9
  67.6
  64.5
  61.4
  58.4
  55.4
  52.6
  49.9
  47.3
  44.7
  42.3
  40.0
  37.8
  35.7
  33.7
  31.8
  30.0
  28.3
  26.7
  25.2

Tourmaline Oil Corp., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of petroleum and natural gas properties in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. It has interests in the properties located in Peace River High and Alberta Deep Basin areas. The company was founded in 2008 and is based in Calgary, Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -231.8
Price to Sales 6.8
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -5.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -14.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 28.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 20.9%
Total Debt to Equity 20.9%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -0.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Return On Total Capital -0.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Return On Equity -0.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 57.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 72.4%
Operating Margin 1.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -3.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.8%
Net Profit Margin -2.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Effective Tax Rate 8.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

TOU stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TOU stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1093 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Tourmaline Oil Corp.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Tourmaline Oil Corp.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TOU stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.4%, whose default value for TOU is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Tourmaline Oil Corp., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Tourmaline Oil Corp..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TOU stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TOU stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Tourmaline Oil Corp..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Tourmaline Oil Corp.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TOU stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TOU are equal to 697.3%.

Life of production assets of 11.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Tourmaline Oil Corp. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TOU is equal to -20.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $6741 million for Tourmaline Oil Corp. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 267.706 million for Tourmaline Oil Corp. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Tourmaline Oil Corp. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $7.4 billion.


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Stock chart of TOU Financial statements of TOU
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The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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