Intrinsic value of Vermilion Energy Inc. - VET

Previous Close

$45.56

  Intrinsic Value

$3.25

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-93%

Previous close

$45.56

 
Intrinsic value

$3.25

 
Up/down potential

-93%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of VET stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -5.15
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.19
  5.17
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.02
Revenue, $m
  829
  875
  922
  972
  1,024
  1,079
  1,136
  1,196
  1,258
  1,324
  1,393
  1,465
  1,540
  1,620
  1,703
  1,790
  1,881
  1,977
  2,077
  2,183
  2,293
  2,409
  2,531
  2,659
  2,793
  2,934
  3,082
  3,237
  3,400
  3,570
  3,750
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,122
  1,183
  1,247
  1,314
  1,384
  1,457
  1,534
  1,615
  1,699
  1,787
  1,879
  1,976
  2,078
  2,185
  2,296
  2,413
  2,536
  2,665
  2,801
  2,942
  3,091
  3,248
  3,412
  3,584
  3,764
  3,954
  4,153
  4,362
  4,581
  4,811
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  925
  1,122
  1,183
  1,247
  1,314
  1,384
  1,457
  1,534
  1,615
  1,699
  1,787
  1,879
  1,976
  2,078
  2,185
  2,296
  2,413
  2,536
  2,665
  2,801
  2,942
  3,091
  3,248
  3,412
  3,584
  3,764
  3,954
  4,153
  4,362
  4,581
  4,811
Operating income, $m
  -97
  -248
  -261
  -275
  -290
  -305
  -321
  -338
  -356
  -375
  -394
  -415
  -436
  -458
  -482
  -506
  -532
  -559
  -588
  -618
  -649
  -682
  -716
  -753
  -790
  -830
  -872
  -916
  -962
  -1,010
  -1,061
EBITDA, $m
  431
  180
  190
  200
  211
  222
  234
  246
  259
  272
  286
  301
  317
  333
  350
  368
  387
  406
  427
  449
  472
  495
  520
  547
  574
  603
  634
  665
  699
  734
  771
Interest expense (income), $m
  60
  59
  65
  72
  78
  85
  92
  100
  107
  115
  124
  133
  142
  152
  162
  173
  185
  197
  209
  222
  236
  250
  265
  281
  298
  315
  334
  353
  373
  394
  417
Earnings before tax, $m
  -223
  -307
  -326
  -347
  -368
  -390
  -414
  -438
  -463
  -490
  -518
  -548
  -578
  -611
  -644
  -680
  -717
  -756
  -797
  -840
  -885
  -932
  -982
  -1,034
  -1,088
  -1,146
  -1,206
  -1,269
  -1,335
  -1,405
  -1,478
Tax expense, $m
  -63
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -160
  -307
  -326
  -347
  -368
  -390
  -414
  -438
  -463
  -490
  -518
  -548
  -578
  -611
  -644
  -680
  -717
  -756
  -797
  -840
  -885
  -932
  -982
  -1,034
  -1,088
  -1,146
  -1,206
  -1,269
  -1,335
  -1,405
  -1,478

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  63
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,087
  4,246
  4,477
  4,719
  4,972
  5,237
  5,514
  5,805
  6,109
  6,427
  6,761
  7,111
  7,478
  7,862
  8,265
  8,688
  9,131
  9,596
  10,084
  10,596
  11,133
  11,696
  12,288
  12,908
  13,559
  14,243
  14,960
  15,713
  16,503
  17,332
  18,203
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,024
  4,246
  4,477
  4,719
  4,972
  5,237
  5,514
  5,805
  6,109
  6,427
  6,761
  7,111
  7,478
  7,862
  8,265
  8,688
  9,131
  9,596
  10,084
  10,596
  11,133
  11,696
  12,288
  12,908
  13,559
  14,243
  14,960
  15,713
  16,503
  17,332
  18,203
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
Average production assets, $m
  2,025
  2,137
  2,253
  2,375
  2,502
  2,636
  2,775
  2,921
  3,074
  3,235
  3,403
  3,579
  3,763
  3,957
  4,160
  4,372
  4,595
  4,830
  5,075
  5,333
  5,603
  5,886
  6,184
  6,496
  6,824
  7,168
  7,529
  7,908
  8,305
  8,723
  9,161
Working capital, $m
  -65
  -135
  -142
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -175
  -184
  -194
  -204
  -214
  -226
  -237
  -249
  -262
  -276
  -290
  -304
  -320
  -336
  -353
  -371
  -390
  -409
  -430
  -452
  -475
  -498
  -524
  -550
  -577
Total debt, $m
  1,382
  1,522
  1,667
  1,818
  1,976
  2,141
  2,314
  2,495
  2,685
  2,884
  3,092
  3,310
  3,539
  3,779
  4,031
  4,294
  4,571
  4,861
  5,166
  5,485
  5,820
  6,172
  6,541
  6,928
  7,334
  7,760
  8,208
  8,678
  9,171
  9,688
  10,232
Total liabilities, $m
  2,509
  2,649
  2,794
  2,945
  3,103
  3,268
  3,441
  3,622
  3,812
  4,011
  4,219
  4,437
  4,666
  4,906
  5,158
  5,421
  5,698
  5,988
  6,293
  6,612
  6,947
  7,299
  7,668
  8,055
  8,461
  8,887
  9,335
  9,805
  10,298
  10,815
  11,359
Total equity, $m
  1,578
  1,596
  1,683
  1,774
  1,870
  1,969
  2,073
  2,183
  2,297
  2,417
  2,542
  2,674
  2,812
  2,956
  3,108
  3,267
  3,433
  3,608
  3,792
  3,984
  4,186
  4,398
  4,620
  4,853
  5,098
  5,355
  5,625
  5,908
  6,205
  6,517
  6,844
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,087
  4,245
  4,477
  4,719
  4,973
  5,237
  5,514
  5,805
  6,109
  6,428
  6,761
  7,111
  7,478
  7,862
  8,266
  8,688
  9,131
  9,596
  10,085
  10,596
  11,133
  11,697
  12,288
  12,908
  13,559
  14,242
  14,960
  15,713
  16,503
  17,332
  18,203
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.876
  0.950
  0.990
  1.020
  1.060
  1.090
  1.120
  1.140
  1.170
  1.190
  1.220
  1.240
  1.260
  1.280
  1.300
  1.310
  1.330
  1.350
  1.360
  1.380
  1.390
  1.400
  1.420
  1.430
  1.440
  1.450
  1.460
  1.470
  1.480
  1.490
  1.490
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -160
  -307
  -326
  -347
  -368
  -390
  -414
  -438
  -463
  -490
  -518
  -548
  -578
  -611
  -644
  -680
  -717
  -756
  -797
  -840
  -885
  -932
  -982
  -1,034
  -1,088
  -1,146
  -1,206
  -1,269
  -1,335
  -1,405
  -1,478
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  528
  427
  451
  475
  500
  527
  555
  584
  615
  647
  681
  716
  753
  791
  832
  874
  919
  966
  1,015
  1,067
  1,121
  1,177
  1,237
  1,299
  1,365
  1,434
  1,506
  1,582
  1,661
  1,745
  1,832
Funds from operations, $m
  518
  120
  124
  128
  132
  137
  141
  146
  151
  157
  162
  168
  174
  181
  188
  195
  202
  210
  218
  227
  236
  245
  255
  265
  276
  288
  300
  313
  326
  340
  354
Change in working capital, $m
  8
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
Cash from operations, $m
  510
  127
  132
  136
  140
  145
  150
  156
  161
  167
  173
  179
  186
  193
  200
  208
  216
  225
  234
  243
  253
  263
  274
  285
  297
  310
  323
  336
  351
  366
  382
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -405
  -427
  -451
  -475
  -500
  -527
  -555
  -584
  -615
  -647
  -681
  -716
  -753
  -791
  -832
  -874
  -919
  -966
  -1,015
  -1,067
  -1,121
  -1,177
  -1,237
  -1,299
  -1,365
  -1,434
  -1,506
  -1,582
  -1,661
  -1,745
New CAPEX, $m
  -341
  -112
  -116
  -122
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -193
  -203
  -213
  -223
  -234
  -246
  -258
  -270
  -284
  -298
  -312
  -328
  -344
  -361
  -379
  -398
  -417
  -438
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -353
  -517
  -543
  -573
  -602
  -633
  -667
  -701
  -737
  -775
  -815
  -857
  -901
  -946
  -994
  -1,045
  -1,097
  -1,153
  -1,212
  -1,273
  -1,337
  -1,405
  -1,475
  -1,549
  -1,627
  -1,709
  -1,795
  -1,885
  -1,980
  -2,078
  -2,183
Free cash flow, $m
  157
  -389
  -412
  -437
  -462
  -489
  -516
  -546
  -576
  -608
  -642
  -677
  -714
  -753
  -794
  -837
  -881
  -928
  -978
  -1,030
  -1,084
  -1,141
  -1,201
  -1,264
  -1,330
  -1,399
  -1,472
  -1,548
  -1,628
  -1,712
  -1,801
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -27
  140
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  208
  218
  229
  240
  252
  264
  277
  290
  304
  319
  335
  352
  369
  387
  406
  426
  448
  470
  493
  518
  543
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  388
  413
  438
  463
  490
  518
  547
  578
  610
  644
  679
  716
  755
  796
  839
  884
  931
  980
  1,032
  1,087
  1,144
  1,204
  1,267
  1,333
  1,403
  1,476
  1,552
  1,632
  1,717
  1,805
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -26
  528
  557
  589
  621
  655
  691
  728
  768
  809
  852
  897
  945
  995
  1,048
  1,103
  1,161
  1,221
  1,284
  1,351
  1,422
  1,496
  1,573
  1,654
  1,739
  1,829
  1,924
  2,022
  2,125
  2,235
  2,348
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  126
  139
  146
  152
  159
  167
  174
  183
  191
  200
  210
  220
  231
  242
  254
  266
  279
  293
  307
  322
  338
  354
  372
  390
  410
  430
  451
  474
  497
  522
  548
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  281
  -388
  -413
  -438
  -463
  -490
  -518
  -547
  -578
  -610
  -644
  -679
  -716
  -755
  -796
  -839
  -884
  -931
  -980
  -1,032
  -1,087
  -1,144
  -1,204
  -1,267
  -1,333
  -1,403
  -1,476
  -1,552
  -1,632
  -1,717
  -1,805
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  63
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -186
  -268
  -286
  -304
  -323
  -343
  -364
  -386
  -410
  -434
  -459
  -485
  -513
  -542
  -573
  -605
  -638
  -673
  -710
  -749
  -790
  -832
  -877
  -924
  -973
  -1,024
  -1,078
  -1,135
  -1,195
  -1,257
Discount rate, %
 
  6.30
  6.62
  6.95
  7.29
  7.66
  8.04
  8.44
  8.86
  9.31
  9.77
  10.26
  10.78
  11.31
  11.88
  12.47
  13.10
  13.75
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.72
  17.55
  18.43
  19.35
  20.32
  21.33
  22.40
  23.52
  24.70
  25.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -175
  -236
  -233
  -229
  -223
  -216
  -207
  -196
  -184
  -171
  -157
  -142
  -127
  -113
  -98
  -84
  -71
  -59
  -49
  -39
  -31
  -24
  -18
  -13
  -10
  -7
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  93.2
  86.8
  80.8
  75.2
  70.0
  65.1
  60.5
  56.3
  52.3
  48.6
  45.2
  42.0
  39.0
  36.2
  33.6
  31.2
  29.0
  26.9
  25.0
  23.2
  21.5
  19.9
  18.5
  17.1
  15.9
  14.7
  13.7
  12.7
  11.7
  10.9

Vermilion Energy Inc. produces oil and gas, and focuses on the acquisition, development and optimization of producing properties in North America, the Europe and Australia. Its segments include Canada, which includes production and assets focused in West Pembina near Drayton Valley, Alberta and Northgate in southeast Saskatchewan; France, which produces oil in France; Netherlands, which produces onshore gas and interests include over 24 onshore licenses and two offshore licenses; Germany, which holds interest in a four partner consortium; Ireland, which includes a non-operating interest in the offshore Corrib gas field located approximately 83 kilometers off the northwest coast of Ireland; Australia, which holds an operated working interest in the Wandoo field located approximately 80 kilometers offshore on the northwest shelf of Australia; the United States, which has interests in approximately 97,200 net acres of land in the Powder River Basin of northeastern Wyoming, and Corporate.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -33.7
Price to Sales 6.5
Price to Book 3.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 31.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -33.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -9.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 87.6%
Total Debt to Equity 87.6%
Interest Coverage -3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -2.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Return On Total Capital -5.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.9%
Return On Equity -9.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -2%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 73.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 76.5%
EBITDA Margin 44%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 50.1%
Operating Margin -11.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -26.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.6%
Net Profit Margin -19.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.9%
Effective Tax Rate 28.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.5%
Payout Ratio -65.6%

VET stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the VET stock intrinsic value calculation we used $829 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Vermilion Energy Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Vermilion Energy Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our VET stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.3%, whose default value for VET is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Vermilion Energy Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Vermilion Energy Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of VET stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 128.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for VET stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.3% for Vermilion Energy Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Vermilion Energy Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the VET stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for VET are equal to 244.3%.

Life of production assets of 3.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Vermilion Energy Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for VET is equal to -15.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1578 million for Vermilion Energy Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 121.503 million for Vermilion Energy Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Vermilion Energy Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.5 billion.

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Financial statements of VET
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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