Intrinsic value of Veresen Inc. - VSN

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$18.38

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$18.38

 
Intrinsic value

$2.25

 
Up/down potential

-88%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of VSN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -41.76
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  53
  54
  55
  57
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  69
  72
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  91
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  120
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  105
  107
  110
  113
  117
  121
  125
  129
  134
  139
  144
  150
  157
  163
  170
  178
  186
  194
  203
  212
  222
  232
  243
  255
  267
  280
  293
  307
  322
  338
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  318
  105
  107
  110
  113
  117
  121
  125
  129
  134
  139
  144
  150
  157
  163
  170
  178
  186
  194
  203
  212
  222
  232
  243
  255
  267
  280
  293
  307
  322
  338
Operating income, $m
  -265
  -51
  -52
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
EBITDA, $m
  -246
  -32
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
Interest expense (income), $m
  49
  51
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  63
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  104
  110
  116
  122
  129
  136
  143
  151
  159
  168
  177
  187
  197
  208
Earnings before tax, $m
  -31
  -102
  -103
  -107
  -110
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -194
  -204
  -214
  -225
  -236
  -249
  -261
  -275
  -289
  -304
  -320
  -336
  -354
  -372
Tax expense, $m
  -40
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  6
  -102
  -103
  -107
  -110
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -194
  -204
  -214
  -225
  -236
  -249
  -261
  -275
  -289
  -304
  -320
  -336
  -354
  -372

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  108
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,572
  4,505
  4,609
  4,727
  4,860
  5,007
  5,169
  5,345
  5,536
  5,741
  5,961
  6,197
  6,448
  6,716
  7,001
  7,303
  7,623
  7,962
  8,320
  8,698
  9,098
  9,520
  9,965
  10,433
  10,927
  11,447
  11,995
  12,572
  13,178
  13,817
  14,488
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,464
  4,505
  4,609
  4,727
  4,860
  5,007
  5,169
  5,345
  5,536
  5,741
  5,961
  6,197
  6,448
  6,716
  7,001
  7,303
  7,623
  7,962
  8,320
  8,698
  9,098
  9,520
  9,965
  10,433
  10,927
  11,447
  11,995
  12,572
  13,178
  13,817
  14,488
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.012
  0.012
  0.012
  0.012
  0.012
  0.012
  0.012
  0.012
  0.012
  0.012
  0.012
  0.012
  0.012
  0.012
  0.012
  0.012
  0.012
  0.012
  0.012
  0.012
  0.012
  0.012
  0.012
  0.012
  0.012
  0.012
  0.012
  0.012
  0.012
  0.012
  0.012
Average production assets, $m
  299
  304
  311
  319
  328
  338
  349
  361
  374
  388
  403
  419
  436
  454
  473
  494
  515
  538
  562
  588
  615
  643
  673
  705
  739
  774
  811
  850
  891
  934
  979
Working capital, $m
  382
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
Total debt, $m
  1,207
  1,116
  1,154
  1,197
  1,246
  1,300
  1,359
  1,423
  1,493
  1,568
  1,649
  1,735
  1,827
  1,925
  2,029
  2,140
  2,257
  2,381
  2,512
  2,651
  2,797
  2,951
  3,114
  3,286
  3,466
  3,657
  3,857
  4,068
  4,290
  4,524
  4,770
Total liabilities, $m
  1,740
  1,649
  1,687
  1,730
  1,779
  1,833
  1,892
  1,956
  2,026
  2,101
  2,182
  2,268
  2,360
  2,458
  2,562
  2,673
  2,790
  2,914
  3,045
  3,184
  3,330
  3,484
  3,647
  3,819
  3,999
  4,190
  4,390
  4,601
  4,823
  5,057
  5,303
Total equity, $m
  2,832
  2,856
  2,922
  2,997
  3,081
  3,175
  3,277
  3,389
  3,510
  3,640
  3,779
  3,929
  4,088
  4,258
  4,439
  4,630
  4,833
  5,048
  5,275
  5,515
  5,768
  6,036
  6,318
  6,615
  6,928
  7,258
  7,605
  7,970
  8,355
  8,760
  9,185
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,572
  4,505
  4,609
  4,727
  4,860
  5,008
  5,169
  5,345
  5,536
  5,741
  5,961
  6,197
  6,448
  6,716
  7,001
  7,303
  7,623
  7,962
  8,320
  8,699
  9,098
  9,520
  9,965
  10,434
  10,927
  11,448
  11,995
  12,571
  13,178
  13,817
  14,488
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.426
  0.390
  0.390
  0.400
  0.400
  0.410
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
  0.450
  0.450
  0.460
  0.460
  0.470
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.520
  0.520
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.610
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  6
  -102
  -103
  -107
  -110
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -194
  -204
  -214
  -225
  -236
  -249
  -261
  -275
  -289
  -304
  -320
  -336
  -354
  -372
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
Funds from operations, $m
  286
  -82
  -84
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -168
  -177
  -186
  -195
  -206
  -216
  -228
  -240
  -252
  -266
  -280
  -294
  -310
Change in working capital, $m
  9
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
Cash from operations, $m
  277
  -28
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -179
  -188
  -198
  -208
  -219
  -231
  -243
  -256
  -269
  -283
  -298
  -314
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
New CAPEX, $m
  -69
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -305
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -62
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -104
Free cash flow, $m
  -28
  -53
  -111
  -115
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -162
  -170
  -179
  -187
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -228
  -240
  -253
  -266
  -279
  -294
  -309
  -325
  -342
  -360
  -378
  -398
  -419
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  282
  17
  38
  43
  49
  54
  59
  64
  70
  75
  81
  86
  92
  98
  104
  111
  117
  124
  131
  139
  146
  154
  163
  172
  181
  190
  200
  211
  222
  234
  246
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  60
  138
  147
  155
  164
  173
  182
  192
  203
  214
  225
  238
  250
  264
  278
  293
  308
  325
  342
  360
  379
  399
  419
  441
  464
  489
  514
  541
  569
  598
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  313
  77
  176
  190
  204
  218
  232
  246
  262
  278
  295
  311
  330
  348
  368
  389
  410
  432
  456
  481
  506
  533
  562
  591
  622
  654
  689
  725
  763
  803
  844
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  286
  -36
  -73
  -71
  -71
  -70
  -70
  -71
  -72
  -73
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -81
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -141
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -173
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  255
  -24
  -66
  -75
  -84
  -93
  -102
  -112
  -121
  -130
  -140
  -149
  -159
  -170
  -180
  -191
  -203
  -215
  -227
  -240
  -253
  -267
  -282
  -297
  -313
  -330
  -347
  -366
  -385
  -405
  -426
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  6.10
  6.41
  6.73
  7.06
  7.41
  7.79
  8.17
  8.58
  9.01
  9.46
  9.94
  10.43
  10.95
  11.50
  12.08
  12.68
  13.32
  13.98
  14.68
  15.41
  16.19
  16.99
  17.84
  18.74
  19.67
  20.66
  21.69
  22.77
  23.91
  25.11
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.0
  96.7
  94.4
  92.0
  89.7
  87.4
  85.1
  82.8
  80.5
  78.2
  76.0
  73.8
  71.7
  69.6
  67.5
  65.5
  63.5
  61.6
  59.7
  57.8
  56.0
  54.3
  52.6
  50.9
  49.3
  47.7
  46.2
  44.7
  43.3
  41.9

Veresen Inc. operates as an energy infrastructure company in North America. It operates through three segments: Pipeline, Midstream, and Power. The Pipeline segment owns a 100% interest in the Alberta Ethane Gathering System, a 1,330 kilometer pipeline that transports ethane from various ethane extraction plants to petrochemical complexes located near Joffre and Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta; a 50% convertible preferred interest in the Ruby Pipeline, a 680-mile natural gas transmission pipeline that transports natural gas between the Opal hub in Wyoming and the Malin hub in Oregon; and a 50% interest in the Alliance Pipeline, an integrated pipeline system comprising a 3,000 kilometer natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGL) pipeline that connects Western Canada’s natural gas reserves to energy markets in the Midwestern United States. The Midstream segment operates the natural gas processing, gathering, and compression assets located in Alberta and British Columbia; and a NGL extraction and fractionation facility that recovers ethane, propane, normal butane, iso-butane, and natural gasoline located at Channahon, Illinois. This segment also operates Palermo conditioning plant that removes hydrocarbon compounds from gas in North Dakota; storage facilities, downstream NGL pipelines, and loading facilities; NGL injection facilities in Alberta and British Columbia; and off-gas processing facility in Fort Saskatchewan. The Power segment operates gas fired, waste heat, wind, and hydroelectric power generation plants in Canada and the United States; and district energy systems in Ontario and Prince Edward Island. The company was formerly known as Fort Chicago Energy Partners L.P. and changed its name to Veresen Inc. in January 2011. Veresen Inc. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Veresen Inc. (VSN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 961.9
Price to Sales 108.9
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 20.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 27.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -41.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 19%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 1.3
LT Debt to Equity 31.9%
Total Debt to Equity 42.6%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -0.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Return On Total Capital 0.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Return On Equity 0.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 54.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.1%
EBITDA Margin 69.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 129%
Operating Margin -500%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -203.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -58.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29%
Net Profit Margin 11.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.2%
Effective Tax Rate 129%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 56.3%
Payout Ratio 3433.3%

VSN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the VSN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $53 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Veresen Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Veresen Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our VSN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.1%, whose default value for VSN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Veresen Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Veresen Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of VSN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 194.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for VSN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.6% for Veresen Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Veresen Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the VSN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for VSN are equal to 563.2%.

Life of production assets of 15.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Veresen Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for VSN is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2832 million for Veresen Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 315.113 million for Veresen Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Veresen Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.8 billion.


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Stock chart of VSN Financial statements of VSN
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The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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