Intrinsic value of WestJet Airlines Ltd. variable voting an - WJA

Previous Close

$26.92

  Intrinsic Value

$60.78

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+126%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$26.92

 
Intrinsic value

$60.78

 
Up/down potential

+126%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of WJA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.33
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
Revenue, $m
  4,123
  4,218
  4,326
  4,448
  4,583
  4,731
  4,892
  5,066
  5,254
  5,456
  5,671
  5,902
  6,147
  6,407
  6,684
  6,976
  7,287
  7,614
  7,961
  8,327
  8,713
  9,120
  9,549
  10,001
  10,477
  10,978
  11,506
  12,061
  12,645
  13,259
  13,906
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,623
  3,716
  3,821
  3,937
  4,064
  4,202
  4,352
  4,513
  4,687
  4,872
  5,070
  5,280
  5,504
  5,741
  5,993
  6,259
  6,541
  6,838
  7,153
  7,484
  7,834
  8,202
  8,591
  9,000
  9,430
  9,883
  10,360
  10,862
  11,390
  11,945
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,683
  3,623
  3,716
  3,821
  3,937
  4,064
  4,202
  4,352
  4,513
  4,687
  4,872
  5,070
  5,280
  5,504
  5,741
  5,993
  6,259
  6,541
  6,838
  7,153
  7,484
  7,834
  8,202
  8,591
  9,000
  9,430
  9,883
  10,360
  10,862
  11,390
  11,945
Operating income, $m
  440
  595
  610
  627
  646
  667
  690
  714
  741
  769
  800
  832
  867
  903
  942
  984
  1,027
  1,074
  1,122
  1,174
  1,228
  1,286
  1,346
  1,410
  1,477
  1,548
  1,622
  1,701
  1,783
  1,870
  1,961
EBITDA, $m
  790
  953
  978
  1,005
  1,036
  1,069
  1,106
  1,145
  1,188
  1,233
  1,282
  1,334
  1,389
  1,448
  1,511
  1,577
  1,647
  1,721
  1,800
  1,882
  1,969
  2,061
  2,158
  2,261
  2,368
  2,482
  2,601
  2,726
  2,858
  2,997
  3,143
Interest expense (income), $m
  56
  67
  70
  73
  77
  82
  87
  92
  98
  105
  111
  119
  126
  135
  143
  153
  162
  173
  184
  195
  208
  221
  234
  249
  264
  280
  297
  315
  333
  353
  373
Earnings before tax, $m
  416
  528
  540
  554
  569
  585
  603
  622
  643
  665
  688
  714
  740
  769
  799
  831
  865
  901
  939
  979
  1,021
  1,065
  1,112
  1,161
  1,213
  1,268
  1,325
  1,386
  1,450
  1,517
  1,587
Tax expense, $m
  121
  143
  146
  150
  154
  158
  163
  168
  174
  179
  186
  193
  200
  208
  216
  224
  234
  243
  253
  264
  276
  288
  300
  314
  328
  342
  358
  374
  391
  410
  429
Net income, $m
  295
  386
  394
  404
  415
  427
  440
  454
  469
  485
  503
  521
  540
  561
  583
  607
  631
  658
  685
  714
  745
  778
  812
  848
  886
  926
  968
  1,012
  1,058
  1,107
  1,159

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1,558
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,164
  4,713
  4,834
  4,970
  5,120
  5,286
  5,466
  5,661
  5,871
  6,096
  6,337
  6,594
  6,868
  7,159
  7,468
  7,795
  8,141
  8,508
  8,895
  9,303
  9,735
  10,190
  10,669
  11,174
  11,706
  12,266
  12,856
  13,476
  14,129
  14,815
  15,537
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,606
  4,713
  4,834
  4,970
  5,120
  5,286
  5,466
  5,661
  5,871
  6,096
  6,337
  6,594
  6,868
  7,159
  7,468
  7,795
  8,141
  8,508
  8,895
  9,303
  9,735
  10,190
  10,669
  11,174
  11,706
  12,266
  12,856
  13,476
  14,129
  14,815
  15,537
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
Average production assets, $m
  3,820
  3,910
  4,010
  4,123
  4,248
  4,385
  4,535
  4,696
  4,871
  5,057
  5,257
  5,471
  5,698
  5,939
  6,196
  6,467
  6,755
  7,059
  7,380
  7,719
  8,077
  8,454
  8,852
  9,271
  9,712
  10,177
  10,666
  11,180
  11,722
  12,291
  12,890
Working capital, $m
  345
  -1,092
  -1,120
  -1,152
  -1,187
  -1,225
  -1,267
  -1,312
  -1,361
  -1,413
  -1,469
  -1,529
  -1,592
  -1,659
  -1,731
  -1,807
  -1,887
  -1,972
  -2,062
  -2,157
  -2,257
  -2,362
  -2,473
  -2,590
  -2,713
  -2,843
  -2,980
  -3,124
  -3,275
  -3,434
  -3,602
Total debt, $m
  2,047
  1,992
  2,096
  2,213
  2,342
  2,484
  2,639
  2,806
  2,987
  3,180
  3,387
  3,608
  3,844
  4,093
  4,359
  4,640
  4,937
  5,252
  5,585
  5,936
  6,306
  6,697
  7,109
  7,542
  7,999
  8,480
  8,987
  9,520
  10,080
  10,670
  11,290
Total liabilities, $m
  4,104
  4,048
  4,152
  4,269
  4,398
  4,540
  4,695
  4,862
  5,043
  5,236
  5,443
  5,664
  5,900
  6,149
  6,415
  6,696
  6,993
  7,308
  7,641
  7,992
  8,362
  8,753
  9,165
  9,598
  10,055
  10,536
  11,043
  11,576
  12,136
  12,726
  13,346
Total equity, $m
  2,061
  664
  682
  701
  722
  745
  771
  798
  828
  860
  893
  930
  968
  1,009
  1,053
  1,099
  1,148
  1,200
  1,254
  1,312
  1,373
  1,437
  1,504
  1,576
  1,651
  1,730
  1,813
  1,900
  1,992
  2,089
  2,191
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,165
  4,712
  4,834
  4,970
  5,120
  5,285
  5,466
  5,660
  5,871
  6,096
  6,336
  6,594
  6,868
  7,158
  7,468
  7,795
  8,141
  8,508
  8,895
  9,304
  9,735
  10,190
  10,669
  11,174
  11,706
  12,266
  12,856
  13,476
  14,128
  14,815
  15,537
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.993
  3.000
  3.080
  3.160
  3.240
  3.330
  3.420
  3.520
  3.610
  3.700
  3.790
  3.880
  3.970
  4.060
  4.140
  4.220
  4.300
  4.380
  4.450
  4.520
  4.590
  4.660
  4.730
  4.790
  4.850
  4.900
  4.960
  5.010
  5.060
  5.110
  5.150
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.109
  0.141
  0.141
  0.141
  0.141
  0.141
  0.141
  0.141
  0.141
  0.141
  0.141
  0.141
  0.141
  0.141
  0.141
  0.141
  0.141
  0.141
  0.141
  0.141
  0.141
  0.141
  0.141
  0.141
  0.141
  0.141
  0.141
  0.141
  0.141
  0.141
  0.141

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  295
  386
  394
  404
  415
  427
  440
  454
  469
  485
  503
  521
  540
  561
  583
  607
  631
  658
  685
  714
  745
  778
  812
  848
  886
  926
  968
  1,012
  1,058
  1,107
  1,159
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  350
  359
  368
  378
  390
  402
  416
  431
  447
  464
  482
  502
  523
  545
  568
  593
  620
  648
  677
  708
  741
  776
  812
  851
  891
  934
  979
  1,026
  1,075
  1,128
  1,183
Funds from operations, $m
  680
  744
  762
  783
  805
  829
  856
  885
  916
  949
  985
  1,023
  1,063
  1,106
  1,152
  1,200
  1,251
  1,305
  1,362
  1,423
  1,486
  1,553
  1,624
  1,698
  1,777
  1,859
  1,946
  2,038
  2,134
  2,235
  2,341
Change in working capital, $m
  -25
  -25
  -28
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -167
Cash from operations, $m
  705
  769
  790
  814
  840
  868
  898
  930
  965
  1,001
  1,041
  1,082
  1,127
  1,174
  1,223
  1,276
  1,331
  1,390
  1,452
  1,517
  1,586
  1,659
  1,735
  1,815
  1,900
  1,989
  2,083
  2,181
  2,285
  2,394
  2,509
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -350
  -359
  -368
  -378
  -390
  -402
  -416
  -431
  -447
  -464
  -482
  -502
  -523
  -545
  -568
  -593
  -620
  -648
  -677
  -708
  -741
  -776
  -812
  -851
  -891
  -934
  -979
  -1,026
  -1,075
  -1,128
New CAPEX, $m
  -925
  -90
  -100
  -113
  -125
  -137
  -149
  -162
  -174
  -187
  -200
  -213
  -227
  -241
  -256
  -272
  -287
  -304
  -321
  -339
  -358
  -377
  -398
  -419
  -441
  -465
  -489
  -515
  -541
  -570
  -599
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -942
  -440
  -459
  -481
  -503
  -527
  -551
  -578
  -605
  -634
  -664
  -695
  -729
  -764
  -801
  -840
  -880
  -924
  -969
  -1,016
  -1,066
  -1,118
  -1,174
  -1,231
  -1,292
  -1,356
  -1,423
  -1,494
  -1,567
  -1,645
  -1,727
Free cash flow, $m
  -237
  328
  331
  333
  337
  341
  346
  352
  360
  368
  377
  387
  398
  409
  422
  436
  451
  466
  483
  501
  520
  540
  562
  584
  608
  633
  660
  688
  718
  749
  782
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  842
  90
  104
  117
  129
  142
  155
  167
  180
  194
  207
  221
  235
  250
  265
  281
  298
  315
  332
  351
  370
  391
  412
  434
  457
  481
  506
  533
  561
  590
  620
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -126
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  645
  90
  104
  117
  129
  142
  155
  167
  180
  194
  207
  221
  235
  250
  265
  281
  298
  315
  332
  351
  370
  391
  412
  434
  457
  481
  506
  533
  561
  590
  620
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  404
  419
  435
  450
  466
  483
  501
  520
  540
  561
  584
  608
  633
  659
  688
  717
  748
  781
  816
  852
  891
  931
  973
  1,018
  1,065
  1,114
  1,166
  1,221
  1,278
  1,339
  1,402
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -101
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  1,413
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,815
  418
  431
  445
  460
  475
  492
  510
  529
  550
  571
  594
  618
  644
  671
  699
  729
  761
  795
  830
  867
  906
  947
  990
  1,036
  1,083
  1,134
  1,186
  1,242
  1,300
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,740
  383
  375
  366
  356
  345
  333
  319
  304
  288
  271
  254
  235
  216
  197
  178
  159
  140
  122
  105
  90
  75
  62
  50
  40
  32
  24
  18
  14
  10
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

WestJet Airlines Ltd. is a Canada-based company, which provides airline service and travel packages. The Company operates WestJet Vacations, which provides air, hotel, car and excursion packages, and WestJet Encore, which is a regional airline that operates a fleet of turboprop aircraft in a network of destinations in Canada and the United States. Its airline offers scheduled service to over 100 destinations in North America, Central America, the Caribbean and Europe with its fleet of over 110 Boeing 737 Next Generation aircraft, over 30 Bombardier Q400 aircraft and over four wide-body Boeing 767-300ERW aircraft. It serves over 180 destinations. Its destinations include the United States; international sun destinations, and new London Gatwick routes. It offers vacation packages to Marina El Cid Spa and Beach Resort Riviera Maya; The Venetian Resort and Casino and The Palazzo Resort Hotel Casino in Las Vegas, and Half Moon, A Rock Resort in Jamaica.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  WestJet Airlines Ltd. variable voting an (WJA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 10.7
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -14.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 2.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 11
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 92.3%
Total Debt to Equity 99.3%
Interest Coverage 8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Return On Total Capital 8.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Return On Equity 14.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.1%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 72%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 69.4%
EBITDA Margin 19.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19%
Operating Margin 10.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Net Profit Margin 7.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Effective Tax Rate 29.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.5%
Payout Ratio 22.7%

WJA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the WJA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4123 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by WestJet Airlines Ltd. variable voting an. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of WestJet Airlines Ltd. variable voting an. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our WJA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for WJA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of WestJet Airlines Ltd. variable voting an, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of WestJet Airlines Ltd. variable voting an.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of WJA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 85.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for WJA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for WestJet Airlines Ltd. variable voting an.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for WestJet Airlines Ltd. variable voting an. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the WJA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for WJA are equal to 92.7%.

Life of production assets of 10.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in WestJet Airlines Ltd. variable voting an operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for WJA is equal to -25.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2061 million for WestJet Airlines Ltd. variable voting an - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 117.191 million for WestJet Airlines Ltd. variable voting an is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of WestJet Airlines Ltd. variable voting an at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.2 billion.

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Financial statements of WJA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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