Intrinsic value of WSP Global Inc. - WSP

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$49.20

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$49.20

 
Intrinsic value

$69.86

 
Up/down potential

+42%

 
Rating

buy

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of WSP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.21
  8.30
  7.97
  7.67
  7.41
  7.17
  6.95
  6.75
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.04
  5.93
  5.84
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.16
Revenue, $m
  6,380
  6,910
  7,460
  8,033
  8,628
  9,246
  9,888
  10,556
  11,250
  11,973
  12,724
  13,507
  14,322
  15,172
  16,058
  16,982
  17,946
  18,953
  20,005
  21,105
  22,254
  23,456
  24,714
  26,030
  27,407
  28,850
  30,360
  31,943
  33,602
  35,340
  37,162
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  6,555
  7,055
  7,575
  8,115
  8,677
  9,260
  9,867
  10,498
  11,154
  11,837
  12,269
  13,010
  13,782
  14,586
  15,426
  16,302
  17,217
  18,172
  19,171
  20,215
  21,307
  22,449
  23,644
  24,896
  26,206
  27,578
  29,016
  30,523
  32,101
  33,756
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  6,077
  6,555
  7,055
  7,575
  8,115
  8,677
  9,260
  9,867
  10,498
  11,154
  11,837
  12,269
  13,010
  13,782
  14,586
  15,426
  16,302
  17,217
  18,172
  19,171
  20,215
  21,307
  22,449
  23,644
  24,896
  26,206
  27,578
  29,016
  30,523
  32,101
  33,756
Operating income, $m
  303
  355
  405
  458
  512
  569
  628
  689
  753
  819
  888
  1,238
  1,312
  1,390
  1,471
  1,556
  1,645
  1,737
  1,833
  1,934
  2,039
  2,149
  2,265
  2,385
  2,511
  2,644
  2,782
  2,927
  3,079
  3,238
  3,405
EBITDA, $m
  463
  667
  720
  775
  833
  892
  954
  1,019
  1,086
  1,155
  1,228
  1,303
  1,382
  1,464
  1,550
  1,639
  1,732
  1,829
  1,930
  2,037
  2,147
  2,263
  2,385
  2,512
  2,645
  2,784
  2,930
  3,082
  3,242
  3,410
  3,586
Interest expense (income), $m
  36
  32
  41
  51
  61
  71
  81
  92
  104
  116
  128
  141
  154
  168
  183
  198
  213
  230
  247
  265
  284
  304
  324
  346
  368
  392
  416
  442
  469
  497
  527
Earnings before tax, $m
  266
  322
  364
  407
  452
  498
  546
  597
  649
  703
  760
  1,097
  1,158
  1,222
  1,289
  1,358
  1,431
  1,507
  1,586
  1,669
  1,755
  1,846
  1,941
  2,040
  2,143
  2,252
  2,366
  2,485
  2,610
  2,741
  2,878
Tax expense, $m
  67
  87
  98
  110
  122
  134
  148
  161
  175
  190
  205
  296
  313
  330
  348
  367
  386
  407
  428
  451
  474
  498
  524
  551
  579
  608
  639
  671
  705
  740
  777
Net income, $m
  199
  235
  266
  297
  330
  364
  399
  435
  474
  513
  555
  801
  846
  892
  941
  992
  1,045
  1,100
  1,158
  1,218
  1,281
  1,347
  1,417
  1,489
  1,565
  1,644
  1,727
  1,814
  1,905
  2,001
  2,101

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  231
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,129
  6,386
  6,895
  7,424
  7,974
  8,545
  9,139
  9,756
  10,398
  11,065
  11,760
  12,483
  13,237
  14,022
  14,841
  15,695
  16,586
  17,517
  18,489
  19,505
  20,568
  21,678
  22,841
  24,057
  25,330
  26,663
  28,060
  29,522
  31,055
  32,662
  34,345
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,898
  6,386
  6,895
  7,424
  7,974
  8,545
  9,139
  9,756
  10,398
  11,065
  11,760
  12,483
  13,237
  14,022
  14,841
  15,695
  16,586
  17,517
  18,489
  19,505
  20,568
  21,678
  22,841
  24,057
  25,330
  26,663
  28,060
  29,522
  31,055
  32,662
  34,345
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.082
  1.082
  1.082
  1.082
  1.082
  1.082
  1.082
  1.082
  1.082
  1.082
  1.082
  1.082
  1.082
  1.082
  1.082
  1.082
  1.082
  1.082
  1.082
  1.082
  1.082
  1.082
  1.082
  1.082
  1.082
  1.082
  1.082
  1.082
  1.082
  1.082
  1.082
Average production assets, $m
  663
  719
  776
  835
  897
  962
  1,028
  1,098
  1,170
  1,245
  1,323
  1,405
  1,490
  1,578
  1,670
  1,766
  1,866
  1,971
  2,081
  2,195
  2,314
  2,439
  2,570
  2,707
  2,850
  3,000
  3,157
  3,322
  3,495
  3,675
  3,865
Working capital, $m
  524
  484
  522
  562
  604
  647
  692
  739
  788
  838
  891
  945
  1,003
  1,062
  1,124
  1,189
  1,256
  1,327
  1,400
  1,477
  1,558
  1,642
  1,730
  1,822
  1,918
  2,019
  2,125
  2,236
  2,352
  2,474
  2,601
Total debt, $m
  1,082
  1,185
  1,453
  1,733
  2,023
  2,325
  2,638
  2,964
  3,303
  3,656
  4,022
  4,404
  4,802
  5,217
  5,649
  6,100
  6,571
  7,062
  7,575
  8,112
  8,673
  9,259
  9,873
  10,515
  11,187
  11,891
  12,628
  13,401
  14,210
  15,058
  15,947
Total liabilities, $m
  3,269
  3,372
  3,640
  3,920
  4,210
  4,512
  4,825
  5,151
  5,490
  5,843
  6,209
  6,591
  6,989
  7,404
  7,836
  8,287
  8,758
  9,249
  9,762
  10,299
  10,860
  11,446
  12,060
  12,702
  13,374
  14,078
  14,815
  15,588
  16,397
  17,245
  18,134
Total equity, $m
  2,860
  3,014
  3,254
  3,504
  3,764
  4,033
  4,313
  4,605
  4,908
  5,223
  5,551
  5,892
  6,248
  6,618
  7,005
  7,408
  7,829
  8,268
  8,727
  9,206
  9,708
  10,232
  10,781
  11,355
  11,956
  12,585
  13,244
  13,935
  14,658
  15,416
  16,211
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,129
  6,386
  6,894
  7,424
  7,974
  8,545
  9,138
  9,756
  10,398
  11,066
  11,760
  12,483
  13,237
  14,022
  14,841
  15,695
  16,587
  17,517
  18,489
  19,505
  20,568
  21,678
  22,841
  24,057
  25,330
  26,663
  28,059
  29,523
  31,055
  32,661
  34,345
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.378
  0.390
  0.450
  0.490
  0.540
  0.580
  0.610
  0.640
  0.670
  0.700
  0.720
  0.750
  0.770
  0.790
  0.810
  0.820
  0.840
  0.850
  0.870
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
  0.920
  0.930
  0.940
  0.940
  0.950
  0.960
  0.970
  0.980
  0.980
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.446
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  199
  235
  266
  297
  330
  364
  399
  435
  474
  513
  555
  801
  846
  892
  941
  992
  1,045
  1,100
  1,158
  1,218
  1,281
  1,347
  1,417
  1,489
  1,565
  1,644
  1,727
  1,814
  1,905
  2,001
  2,101
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  160
  312
  315
  317
  320
  323
  326
  330
  333
  337
  340
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  87
  92
  97
  103
  108
  114
  120
  126
  133
  140
  148
  155
  163
  172
  181
Funds from operations, $m
  338
  547
  580
  614
  650
  687
  725
  765
  807
  850
  895
  866
  915
  966
  1,019
  1,074
  1,132
  1,192
  1,255
  1,321
  1,390
  1,461
  1,537
  1,615
  1,698
  1,784
  1,875
  1,969
  2,069
  2,173
  2,282
Change in working capital, $m
  -49
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  70
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
Cash from operations, $m
  387
  497
  542
  574
  608
  644
  680
  718
  758
  799
  842
  812
  858
  906
  957
  1,010
  1,064
  1,122
  1,181
  1,244
  1,309
  1,377
  1,449
  1,523
  1,601
  1,683
  1,769
  1,859
  1,953
  2,051
  2,154
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -172
New CAPEX, $m
  -144
  -56
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -165
  -172
  -181
  -189
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -309
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -211
  -223
  -233
  -245
  -257
  -269
  -283
  -297
  -313
  -327
  -344
  -361
Free cash flow, $m
  78
  410
  451
  479
  507
  537
  569
  601
  635
  670
  706
  668
  708
  749
  791
  835
  882
  930
  980
  1,032
  1,087
  1,144
  1,204
  1,266
  1,332
  1,400
  1,472
  1,546
  1,625
  1,707
  1,793
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  81
  257
  269
  279
  290
  302
  314
  326
  339
  352
  367
  382
  398
  415
  432
  451
  471
  491
  513
  536
  561
  587
  614
  642
  672
  704
  737
  772
  809
  848
  889
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  41
  257
  269
  279
  290
  302
  314
  326
  339
  352
  367
  382
  398
  415
  432
  451
  471
  491
  513
  536
  561
  587
  614
  642
  672
  704
  737
  772
  809
  848
  889
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  96
  666
  720
  758
  798
  839
  882
  927
  973
  1,022
  1,073
  1,050
  1,105
  1,163
  1,223
  1,286
  1,352
  1,421
  1,493
  1,569
  1,648
  1,731
  1,818
  1,909
  2,004
  2,104
  2,209
  2,319
  2,434
  2,555
  2,682
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  56
  -231
  -240
  -250
  -260
  -270
  -280
  -291
  -303
  -315
  -328
  -341
  -356
  -371
  -386
  -403
  -421
  -439
  -459
  -480
  -501
  -524
  -549
  -574
  -601
  -629
  -659
  -690
  -723
  -758
  -795
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  77
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  512
  479
  508
  538
  569
  602
  636
  671
  707
  745
  709
  750
  792
  837
  883
  931
  982
  1,034
  1,089
  1,147
  1,206
  1,269
  1,335
  1,403
  1,475
  1,550
  1,628
  1,711
  1,797
  1,887
Discount rate, %
 
  4.50
  4.73
  4.96
  5.21
  5.47
  5.74
  6.03
  6.33
  6.65
  6.98
  7.33
  7.70
  8.08
  8.49
  8.91
  9.36
  9.82
  10.31
  10.83
  11.37
  11.94
  12.54
  13.16
  13.82
  14.51
  15.24
  16.00
  16.80
  17.64
  18.52
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  490
  437
  439
  439
  436
  430
  422
  410
  396
  379
  326
  308
  289
  268
  246
  223
  200
  177
  154
  133
  113
  94
  78
  63
  50
  39
  30
  22
  16
  12
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

WSP Global Inc. provides various professional services in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Sweden, Australia, China, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Singapore, Finland, and internationally. The company offers management and technical consultancy services for the property sector; and structural and mechanical, electrical, and plumbing engineering services, including fire engineering, lighting design, vertical transportation, acoustics, intelligent building systems, AV/IT, facade engineering, and green building design. It also plans, analyzes, designs, and manages projects for rail, transit, aviation, bridges, tunnels, highways, ports, roads, and urban infrastructure; provides a range of services, such as air, land, water, and health, as well as advise and work with clients on a range of environmental matters comprising risk management, permitting authorizations and regulatory compliance to handling and disposal of hazardous materials, and employeesÂ’ health and safety. In addition, the company offers consulting and engineering services to the food and beverages, pharmaceutical, biotechnology, chemical, and power and energy sectors; and resource and reserve modelling, metallurgical testing, geotechnical and mine design, and detailed engineering services for mining infrastructure. Further, it provides operational management support services consisting of feasibility studies and engineering design and energy simulations, as well as project delivery and strategic consulting services. The company was formerly known as GENIVAR Inc. WSP Global Inc. was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in Montreal, Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  WSP Global Inc. (WSP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 25.1
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 20.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 37.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 37.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 32.4%
Total Debt to Equity 37.8%
Interest Coverage 8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Return On Total Capital 5.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Return On Equity 6.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 76.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 77.2%
EBITDA Margin 7.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Operating Margin 4.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Net Profit Margin 3.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Effective Tax Rate 25.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.3%
Payout Ratio 34.2%

WSP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the WSP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6380 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by WSP Global Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of WSP Global Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our WSP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.5%, whose default value for WSP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of WSP Global Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of WSP Global Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of WSP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for WSP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for WSP Global Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for WSP Global Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the WSP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for WSP are equal to 10.4%.

Life of production assets of 21.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in WSP Global Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for WSP is equal to 7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2860 million for WSP Global Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 102.205 million for WSP Global Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of WSP Global Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.0 billion.


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Stock chart of WSP Financial statements of WSP
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