Intrinsic value of Advanced Accelerator Applications ADR - AAAP

Previous Close

$81.99

  Intrinsic Value

$1.58

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  Rating & Target

str. sell

-98%

Previous close

$81.99

 
Intrinsic value

$1.58

 
Up/down potential

-98%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of AAAP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  22.34
  39.30
  35.87
  32.78
  30.00
  27.50
  25.25
  23.23
  21.41
  19.77
  18.29
  16.96
  15.76
  14.69
  13.72
  12.85
  12.06
  11.36
  10.72
  10.15
  9.63
  9.17
  8.75
  8.38
  8.04
  7.74
  7.46
  7.22
  6.99
  6.80
  6.62
Revenue, $m
  115
  160
  218
  289
  376
  479
  600
  739
  898
  1,075
  1,272
  1,487
  1,722
  1,975
  2,246
  2,534
  2,840
  3,162
  3,502
  3,857
  4,228
  4,616
  5,020
  5,441
  5,878
  6,333
  6,806
  7,297
  7,807
  8,338
  8,889
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  175
  237
  314
  407
  517
  647
  797
  967
  1,157
  1,368
  1,596
  1,847
  2,118
  2,409
  2,719
  3,046
  3,392
  3,756
  4,137
  4,536
  4,952
  5,385
  5,836
  6,306
  6,793
  7,300
  7,827
  8,375
  8,944
  9,535
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  136
  175
  237
  314
  407
  517
  647
  797
  967
  1,157
  1,368
  1,596
  1,847
  2,118
  2,409
  2,719
  3,046
  3,392
  3,756
  4,137
  4,536
  4,952
  5,385
  5,836
  6,306
  6,793
  7,300
  7,827
  8,375
  8,944
  9,535
Operating income, $m
  -21
  -15
  -19
  -25
  -31
  -38
  -47
  -57
  -69
  -82
  -96
  -108
  -125
  -144
  -163
  -184
  -206
  -230
  -255
  -280
  -307
  -336
  -365
  -396
  -427
  -460
  -495
  -530
  -568
  -606
  -646
EBITDA, $m
  -8
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -69
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  3
  6
  10
  14
  20
  26
  34
  42
  52
  62
  73
  86
  99
  114
  129
  145
  162
  180
  199
  219
  240
  261
  283
  307
  331
  356
  382
  409
  437
Earnings before tax, $m
  -26
  -16
  -22
  -31
  -41
  -53
  -67
  -84
  -103
  -124
  -148
  -170
  -199
  -230
  -263
  -298
  -336
  -375
  -417
  -461
  -507
  -555
  -604
  -657
  -711
  -767
  -825
  -886
  -949
  -1,015
  -1,083
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -27
  -16
  -22
  -31
  -41
  -53
  -67
  -84
  -103
  -124
  -148
  -170
  -199
  -230
  -263
  -298
  -336
  -375
  -417
  -461
  -507
  -555
  -604
  -657
  -711
  -767
  -825
  -886
  -949
  -1,015
  -1,083

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  234
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  442
  290
  394
  523
  679
  866
  1,085
  1,337
  1,623
  1,944
  2,300
  2,690
  3,114
  3,571
  4,061
  4,583
  5,136
  5,719
  6,332
  6,974
  7,646
  8,347
  9,078
  9,839
  10,630
  11,452
  12,307
  13,195
  14,118
  15,077
  16,074
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  208
  290
  394
  523
  679
  866
  1,085
  1,337
  1,623
  1,944
  2,300
  2,690
  3,114
  3,571
  4,061
  4,583
  5,136
  5,719
  6,332
  6,974
  7,646
  8,347
  9,078
  9,839
  10,630
  11,452
  12,307
  13,195
  14,118
  15,077
  16,074
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.553
  0.552
  0.553
  0.553
  0.554
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
Average production assets, $m
  41
  57
  78
  103
  134
  171
  214
  264
  320
  384
  454
  531
  615
  705
  802
  905
  1,014
  1,129
  1,250
  1,377
  1,510
  1,648
  1,792
  1,942
  2,099
  2,261
  2,430
  2,605
  2,787
  2,976
  3,173
Working capital, $m
  242
  17
  23
  30
  39
  50
  62
  77
  93
  112
  132
  155
  179
  205
  234
  264
  295
  329
  364
  401
  440
  480
  522
  566
  611
  659
  708
  759
  812
  867
  924
Total debt, $m
  17
  61
  122
  198
  290
  400
  528
  676
  844
  1,032
  1,241
  1,470
  1,719
  1,987
  2,275
  2,581
  2,906
  3,248
  3,608
  3,985
  4,379
  4,791
  5,220
  5,666
  6,131
  6,613
  7,115
  7,636
  8,178
  8,741
  9,327
Total liabilities, $m
  126
  170
  231
  307
  399
  509
  637
  785
  953
  1,141
  1,350
  1,579
  1,828
  2,096
  2,384
  2,690
  3,015
  3,357
  3,717
  4,094
  4,488
  4,900
  5,329
  5,775
  6,240
  6,722
  7,224
  7,745
  8,287
  8,850
  9,436
Total equity, $m
  316
  120
  163
  216
  281
  358
  448
  552
  670
  803
  950
  1,111
  1,286
  1,475
  1,677
  1,893
  2,121
  2,362
  2,615
  2,880
  3,158
  3,447
  3,749
  4,063
  4,390
  4,730
  5,083
  5,449
  5,831
  6,227
  6,639
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  442
  290
  394
  523
  680
  867
  1,085
  1,337
  1,623
  1,944
  2,300
  2,690
  3,114
  3,571
  4,061
  4,583
  5,136
  5,719
  6,332
  6,974
  7,646
  8,347
  9,078
  9,838
  10,630
  11,452
  12,307
  13,194
  14,118
  15,077
  16,075
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.054
  0.510
  0.750
  0.920
  1.030
  1.120
  1.180
  1.220
  1.260
  1.290
  1.310
  1.320
  1.340
  1.350
  1.360
  1.360
  1.370
  1.380
  1.380
  1.380
  1.390
  1.390
  1.390
  1.390
  1.400
  1.400
  1.400
  1.400
  1.400
  1.400
  1.400
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.394
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -27
  -16
  -22
  -31
  -41
  -53
  -67
  -84
  -103
  -124
  -148
  -170
  -199
  -230
  -263
  -298
  -336
  -375
  -417
  -461
  -507
  -555
  -604
  -657
  -711
  -767
  -825
  -886
  -949
  -1,015
  -1,083
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  13
  14
  18
  22
  28
  35
  43
  52
  62
  73
  86
  97
  112
  128
  146
  164
  184
  205
  227
  250
  274
  300
  326
  353
  382
  411
  442
  474
  507
  541
  577
Funds from operations, $m
  -10
  -2
  -5
  -8
  -13
  -18
  -25
  -32
  -41
  -51
  -62
  -74
  -87
  -101
  -117
  -133
  -151
  -170
  -190
  -210
  -232
  -255
  -279
  -303
  -329
  -356
  -384
  -413
  -443
  -474
  -506
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  5
  6
  7
  9
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
Cash from operations, $m
  -5
  -7
  -11
  -16
  -22
  -29
  -37
  -47
  -57
  -69
  -82
  -96
  -111
  -128
  -145
  -163
  -183
  -203
  -225
  -247
  -271
  -295
  -321
  -347
  -375
  -403
  -433
  -464
  -496
  -529
  -564
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -7
  -10
  -14
  -19
  -24
  -31
  -39
  -48
  -58
  -70
  -83
  -97
  -112
  -128
  -146
  -164
  -184
  -205
  -227
  -250
  -274
  -300
  -326
  -353
  -382
  -411
  -442
  -474
  -507
  -541
New CAPEX, $m
  -14
  -16
  -21
  -25
  -31
  -37
  -43
  -50
  -57
  -63
  -70
  -77
  -84
  -90
  -97
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -138
  -144
  -150
  -156
  -162
  -169
  -175
  -182
  -189
  -197
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -37
  -23
  -31
  -39
  -50
  -61
  -74
  -89
  -105
  -121
  -140
  -160
  -181
  -202
  -225
  -249
  -273
  -299
  -326
  -354
  -383
  -412
  -444
  -476
  -509
  -544
  -580
  -617
  -656
  -696
  -738
Free cash flow, $m
  -42
  -30
  -42
  -55
  -72
  -90
  -112
  -135
  -162
  -191
  -222
  -256
  -292
  -330
  -370
  -412
  -457
  -503
  -551
  -602
  -654
  -708
  -765
  -823
  -884
  -947
  -1,013
  -1,081
  -1,152
  -1,225
  -1,302
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -6
  48
  61
  76
  92
  110
  128
  148
  168
  188
  209
  229
  249
  268
  288
  306
  324
  342
  360
  377
  394
  412
  429
  446
  464
  483
  502
  521
  542
  563
  585
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  155
  50
  65
  84
  106
  130
  158
  188
  221
  256
  295
  331
  374
  418
  465
  513
  564
  616
  670
  726
  784
  844
  906
  971
  1,037
  1,107
  1,178
  1,253
  1,331
  1,411
  1,495
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  144
  98
  126
  160
  198
  240
  286
  336
  389
  444
  504
  560
  623
  686
  753
  819
  888
  958
  1,030
  1,103
  1,178
  1,256
  1,335
  1,417
  1,501
  1,590
  1,680
  1,774
  1,873
  1,974
  2,080
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  109
  67
  85
  104
  126
  150
  174
  200
  227
  254
  281
  305
  331
  357
  383
  407
  432
  455
  479
  502
  525
  548
  571
  594
  618
  642
  667
  694
  721
  749
  779
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -137
  -50
  -65
  -84
  -106
  -130
  -158
  -188
  -221
  -256
  -295
  -331
  -374
  -418
  -465
  -513
  -564
  -616
  -670
  -726
  -784
  -844
  -906
  -971
  -1,037
  -1,107
  -1,178
  -1,253
  -1,331
  -1,411
  -1,495
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  230
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  248
  19
  20
  20
  19
  17
  13
  6
  -2
  -13
  -27
  -43
  -61
  -82
  -106
  -132
  -161
  -191
  -224
  -259
  -297
  -336
  -377
  -420
  -464
  -511
  -559
  -610
  -662
  -716
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  238
  18
  18
  17
  15
  12
  9
  4
  -1
  -7
  -13
  -18
  -23
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -35
  -35
  -35
  -33
  -31
  -28
  -25
  -21
  -18
  -15
  -12
  -9
  -7
  -5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  94.6
  89.7
  85.2
  81.3
  77.7
  74.4
  71.4
  68.7
  66.1
  63.8
  61.6
  59.6
  57.8
  56.0
  54.3
  52.8
  51.3
  49.9
  48.5
  47.2
  46.0
  44.8
  43.7
  42.6
  41.5
  40.5
  39.6
  38.6
  37.7
  36.8

Advanced Accelerator Applications S.A. is a radiopharmaceutical company. The Company develops, produces and commercializes molecular nuclear medicine (MNM), diagnostic and therapeutic products. MNM uses trace amounts of radioactive compounds to create functional images of organs and lesions and to treat diseases, such as cancer. The Company has a portfolio of nine diagnostic positron emission tomography (PET) and single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) products. PET and SPECT are imaging techniques in molecular nuclear diagnostics (MND) with applications in clinical oncology, cardiology, neurology and inflammatory/infectious diseases. Its commercial products include Gluscan/Gluscan 500/Barnascan, FluoroChol, MIBITEC/Adamibi, DOPAVIEW, Leukokit, Neurolite, SomaKit and NETSPOT. Additional MND product candidates include Annexin V-128, a SPECT product candidate for the imaging of apoptotic and necrotic lesions with potential applications in a range of indications.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Advanced Accelerator Applications ADR (AAAP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -267.1
Price to Sales 62.7
Price to Book 22.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -1442.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -379.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 22.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 7.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 59
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 4.1%
Total Debt to Equity 5.4%
Interest Coverage -25
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -7.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.4%
Return On Total Capital -10.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.4%
Return On Equity -10.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.6%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 76.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 77.9%
EBITDA Margin -10.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.5%
Operating Margin -18.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -22.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.5%
Net Profit Margin -23.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.7%
Effective Tax Rate -3.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

AAAP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AAAP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $115 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Advanced Accelerator Applications ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Advanced Accelerator Applications ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AAAP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 39.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AAAP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Advanced Accelerator Applications ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Advanced Accelerator Applications ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AAAP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 110.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AAAP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5% for Advanced Accelerator Applications ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Advanced Accelerator Applications ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AAAP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AAAP are equal to 35.7%.

Life of production assets of 5.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Advanced Accelerator Applications ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AAAP is equal to 10.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $316 million for Advanced Accelerator Applications ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 44.352 million for Advanced Accelerator Applications ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Advanced Accelerator Applications ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.6 billion.

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Financial statements of AAAP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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