Intrinsic value of AAC Holdings - AAC

Previous Close

$8.78

  Intrinsic Value

$5.71

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-35%

  Value-price divergence*

-27%

Previous close

$8.78

 
Intrinsic value

$5.71

 
Up/down potential

-35%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-27%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AAC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  32.08
  12.30
  11.57
  10.91
  10.32
  9.79
  9.31
  8.88
  8.49
  8.14
  7.83
  7.55
  7.29
  7.06
  6.86
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
Revenue, $m
  280
  314
  351
  389
  429
  471
  515
  561
  609
  658
  710
  763
  819
  877
  937
  999
  1,064
  1,132
  1,202
  1,275
  1,352
  1,431
  1,514
  1,601
  1,691
  1,786
  1,884
  1,988
  2,095
  2,208
  2,326
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  289
  321
  355
  390
  427
  465
  505
  547
  591
  636
  669
  718
  769
  822
  876
  933
  993
  1,054
  1,119
  1,186
  1,256
  1,328
  1,404
  1,484
  1,566
  1,653
  1,743
  1,838
  1,937
  2,040
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  279
  289
  321
  355
  390
  427
  465
  505
  547
  591
  636
  669
  718
  769
  822
  876
  933
  993
  1,054
  1,119
  1,186
  1,256
  1,328
  1,404
  1,484
  1,566
  1,653
  1,743
  1,838
  1,937
  2,040
Operating income, $m
  1
  25
  30
  34
  39
  45
  50
  56
  61
  67
  74
  94
  101
  108
  115
  123
  131
  139
  148
  157
  166
  176
  186
  197
  208
  219
  232
  244
  257
  271
  286
EBITDA, $m
  19
  49
  55
  61
  67
  74
  81
  88
  95
  103
  111
  120
  128
  137
  147
  157
  167
  177
  188
  200
  212
  224
  237
  251
  265
  280
  295
  311
  328
  346
  364
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  44
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
Earnings before tax, $m
  -7
  19
  22
  26
  30
  34
  38
  43
  47
  52
  57
  76
  81
  87
  93
  99
  105
  111
  118
  125
  133
  141
  149
  157
  166
  175
  185
  195
  205
  216
  227
Tax expense, $m
  -1
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  15
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
Net income, $m
  -1
  14
  16
  19
  22
  25
  28
  31
  35
  38
  42
  55
  59
  63
  68
  72
  77
  81
  86
  92
  97
  103
  108
  115
  121
  128
  135
  142
  150
  158
  166

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  384
  427
  476
  528
  582
  639
  699
  761
  826
  893
  963
  1,035
  1,111
  1,189
  1,271
  1,356
  1,444
  1,536
  1,631
  1,731
  1,834
  1,942
  2,055
  2,172
  2,295
  2,423
  2,557
  2,697
  2,843
  2,996
  3,156
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  380
  427
  476
  528
  582
  639
  699
  761
  826
  893
  963
  1,035
  1,111
  1,189
  1,271
  1,356
  1,444
  1,536
  1,631
  1,731
  1,834
  1,942
  2,055
  2,172
  2,295
  2,423
  2,557
  2,697
  2,843
  2,996
  3,156
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.737
  0.735
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.738
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
Average production assets, $m
  135
  151
  168
  187
  206
  226
  247
  269
  292
  316
  341
  366
  393
  421
  450
  480
  511
  543
  577
  612
  649
  687
  727
  768
  812
  857
  905
  954
  1,006
  1,060
  1,117
Working capital, $m
  51
  63
  70
  78
  86
  94
  103
  112
  122
  132
  142
  153
  164
  175
  187
  200
  213
  226
  240
  255
  270
  286
  303
  320
  338
  357
  377
  398
  419
  442
  465
Total debt, $m
  189
  211
  239
  269
  300
  332
  366
  401
  437
  475
  515
  556
  599
  643
  689
  737
  787
  839
  893
  949
  1,008
  1,069
  1,133
  1,200
  1,269
  1,341
  1,417
  1,496
  1,579
  1,666
  1,756
Total liabilities, $m
  219
  241
  269
  299
  330
  362
  396
  431
  467
  505
  545
  586
  629
  673
  719
  767
  817
  869
  923
  979
  1,038
  1,099
  1,163
  1,230
  1,299
  1,371
  1,447
  1,526
  1,609
  1,696
  1,786
Total equity, $m
  165
  185
  207
  229
  253
  278
  303
  330
  358
  388
  418
  449
  482
  516
  552
  588
  627
  666
  708
  751
  796
  843
  892
  943
  996
  1,052
  1,110
  1,170
  1,234
  1,300
  1,370
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  384
  426
  476
  528
  583
  640
  699
  761
  825
  893
  963
  1,035
  1,111
  1,189
  1,271
  1,355
  1,444
  1,535
  1,631
  1,730
  1,834
  1,942
  2,055
  2,173
  2,295
  2,423
  2,557
  2,696
  2,843
  2,996
  3,156
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.145
  1.140
  1.160
  1.170
  1.190
  1.200
  1.210
  1.210
  1.220
  1.230
  1.230
  1.240
  1.240
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.270
  1.270
  1.270
  1.270
  1.270
  1.280
  1.280
  1.280
  1.280
  1.280
  1.280
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.424
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -1
  14
  16
  19
  22
  25
  28
  31
  35
  38
  42
  55
  59
  63
  68
  72
  77
  81
  86
  92
  97
  103
  108
  115
  121
  128
  135
  142
  150
  158
  166
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  18
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
Funds from operations, $m
  -40
  38
  42
  46
  50
  54
  59
  64
  69
  74
  79
  81
  87
  93
  99
  106
  113
  120
  127
  135
  143
  151
  160
  169
  178
  188
  198
  209
  221
  232
  245
Change in working capital, $m
  -40
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
Cash from operations, $m
  0
  31
  34
  38
  42
  46
  50
  54
  59
  64
  69
  70
  76
  81
  87
  93
  100
  106
  113
  120
  127
  135
  143
  151
  160
  169
  179
  189
  199
  210
  221
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
New CAPEX, $m
  -37
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -56
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -132
Free cash flow, $m
  -56
  5
  6
  8
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  22
  21
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  80
  85
  90
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  42
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  69
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  6
  5
  4
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  42
  32
  33
  33
  33
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  69
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -15
  38
  39
  41
  42
  43
  47
  50
  54
  57
  61
  62
  66
  70
  75
  80
  85
  90
  95
  100
  106
  112
  119
  125
  132
  139
  147
  155
  163
  171
  180
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -23
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  18
  18
  18
  18
  19
  21
  23
  26
  28
  31
  30
  33
  36
  40
  43
  46
  50
  54
  57
  61
  65
  70
  74
  79
  84
  89
  94
  99
  105
  111
Discount rate, %
 
  8.00
  8.40
  8.82
  9.26
  9.72
  10.21
  10.72
  11.26
  11.82
  12.41
  13.03
  13.68
  14.37
  15.09
  15.84
  16.63
  17.46
  18.34
  19.25
  20.22
  21.23
  22.29
  23.40
  24.57
  25.80
  27.09
  28.45
  29.87
  31.36
  32.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  16
  15
  14
  13
  12
  12
  11
  11
  10
  10
  8
  7
  6
  6
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  97.5
  95.7
  94.7
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2

AAC Holdings, Inc. provides inpatient substance abuse treatment services for individuals with drug and alcohol addiction in the United States. Its therapy services include motivational interviewing, cognitive behavioral therapy, rational emotive behavior therapy, dialectical behavioral therapy, solution-focused therapy, eye movement desensitization and reprocessing, and systematic family intervention services. As of December 31, 2015, the company operated nine residential substance abuse treatment facilities and nine outpatient substance abuse treatment facilities. It also offers Internet marketing services to families and individuals, which are struggling with addiction and seeking treatment options through online directories, treatment provider reviews, forums, and professional communities; and online marketing solutions to other treatment providers, such as facility profiles, audience targeting, lead generation, and tools for digital reputation management. In addition, it performs drug testing and diagnostic laboratory services; and provides physician services to its clients. AAC Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Brentwood, Tennessee.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  AAC Holdings (AAC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -200.3
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow -5.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 32.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -28.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 23.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 109.1%
Total Debt to Equity 114.5%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Return On Total Capital -0.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Return On Equity -0.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 5.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Operating Margin 0.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -2.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Net Profit Margin -0.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Effective Tax Rate 14.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

AAC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AAC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $280 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by AAC Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of AAC Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AAC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 12.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8%, whose default value for AAC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of AAC Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of AAC Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AAC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AAC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for AAC Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for AAC Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AAC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AAC are equal to 48%.

Life of production assets of 14.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in AAC Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AAC is equal to 20%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $165 million for AAC Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 28.642 million for AAC Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of AAC Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ AAC Holdings reports 2Q loss   [Aug-03-17 12:58AM  Associated Press]
▶ AAC Holdings, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-02-17 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to AAC Holdings, Inc. : June 2, 2017   [Jun-02-17 01:48PM  Capital Cube]
▶ [$$] Labor Dispute Shuts 110-Bed N.J. Addiction Center   [12:08AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ ETFs with exposure to AAC Holdings, Inc. : May 22, 2017   [May-22-17 01:17PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to AAC Holdings, Inc. : May 9, 2017   [May-09-17 04:13PM  Capital Cube]
▶ AAC Holdings reports 1Q loss   [May-03-17 07:01PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to AAC Holdings, Inc. : April 20, 2017   [Apr-20-17 02:09PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to AAC Holdings, Inc. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 04:13PM  Capital Cube]
▶ AAC Holdings beats 4Q profit forecasts   [Feb-27-17 07:30PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is AAC Holdings Inc (AAC) A Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-15-16 12:16AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Here's Why AAC Holdings Lost Over Half Its Value Today   [Nov-03-16 05:27PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ AAC shares climb on legal resolution   [Oct-24-16 04:15PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ AAC Holdings Increases Credit Facility   [Jul-14-16 06:30AM  Business Wire]
Stock chart of AAC Financial statements of AAC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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