Intrinsic value of AAC Holdings - AAC

Previous Close

$7.23

  Intrinsic Value

$9.29

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+28%

  Value-price divergence*

-27%

Previous close

$7.23

 
Intrinsic value

$9.29

 
Up/down potential

+28%

 
Rating

buy

 
Value-price divergence*

-27%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AAC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  32.08
  24.10
  22.19
  20.47
  18.92
  17.53
  16.28
  15.15
  14.14
  13.22
  12.40
  11.66
  10.99
  10.39
  9.85
  9.37
  8.93
  8.54
  8.19
  7.87
  7.58
  7.32
  7.09
  6.88
  6.69
  6.52
  6.37
  6.23
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
Revenue, $m
  280
  347
  425
  512
  608
  715
  831
  957
  1,093
  1,237
  1,390
  1,553
  1,723
  1,902
  2,090
  2,286
  2,490
  2,702
  2,924
  3,154
  3,393
  3,641
  3,899
  4,168
  4,446
  4,737
  5,038
  5,352
  5,679
  6,020
  6,375
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  318
  386
  462
  547
  641
  743
  853
  972
  1,098
  1,233
  1,362
  1,512
  1,669
  1,833
  2,005
  2,184
  2,370
  2,564
  2,766
  2,976
  3,194
  3,420
  3,656
  3,900
  4,155
  4,419
  4,695
  4,982
  5,281
  5,592
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  279
  318
  386
  462
  547
  641
  743
  853
  972
  1,098
  1,233
  1,362
  1,512
  1,669
  1,833
  2,005
  2,184
  2,370
  2,564
  2,766
  2,976
  3,194
  3,420
  3,656
  3,900
  4,155
  4,419
  4,695
  4,982
  5,281
  5,592
Operating income, $m
  1
  29
  39
  49
  61
  74
  89
  104
  121
  139
  157
  191
  212
  234
  257
  281
  306
  332
  359
  387
  417
  447
  479
  512
  546
  582
  619
  658
  698
  740
  783
EBITDA, $m
  19
  50
  62
  74
  88
  104
  121
  139
  159
  179
  202
  225
  250
  276
  303
  332
  361
  392
  424
  458
  492
  528
  566
  605
  645
  687
  731
  777
  824
  873
  925
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  6
  8
  10
  13
  15
  18
  21
  25
  28
  32
  36
  41
  45
  50
  55
  60
  66
  72
  78
  84
  90
  97
  104
  111
  118
  126
  134
  143
  152
  161
Earnings before tax, $m
  -7
  23
  30
  39
  49
  59
  71
  83
  96
  110
  125
  154
  171
  188
  207
  226
  246
  266
  288
  310
  333
  357
  382
  408
  435
  463
  493
  523
  555
  588
  622
Tax expense, $m
  -1
  6
  8
  11
  13
  16
  19
  22
  26
  30
  34
  42
  46
  51
  56
  61
  66
  72
  78
  84
  90
  96
  103
  110
  118
  125
  133
  141
  150
  159
  168
Net income, $m
  -1
  17
  22
  29
  36
  43
  52
  61
  70
  80
  91
  113
  125
  138
  151
  165
  179
  194
  210
  226
  243
  261
  279
  298
  318
  338
  360
  382
  405
  429
  454

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  384
  471
  576
  694
  825
  970
  1,128
  1,299
  1,482
  1,678
  1,887
  2,107
  2,338
  2,581
  2,836
  3,101
  3,378
  3,667
  3,967
  4,279
  4,603
  4,940
  5,291
  5,655
  6,033
  6,427
  6,836
  7,262
  7,706
  8,169
  8,650
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  380
  471
  576
  694
  825
  970
  1,128
  1,299
  1,482
  1,678
  1,887
  2,107
  2,338
  2,581
  2,836
  3,101
  3,378
  3,667
  3,967
  4,279
  4,603
  4,940
  5,291
  5,655
  6,033
  6,427
  6,836
  7,262
  7,706
  8,169
  8,650
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.737
  0.737
  0.738
  0.738
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.738
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
Average production assets, $m
  135
  80
  97
  117
  139
  164
  190
  219
  250
  283
  318
  356
  395
  436
  479
  523
  570
  619
  670
  722
  777
  834
  893
  954
  1,018
  1,085
  1,154
  1,226
  1,301
  1,379
  1,460
Working capital, $m
  51
  69
  85
  102
  122
  143
  166
  191
  219
  247
  278
  311
  345
  380
  418
  457
  498
  540
  585
  631
  679
  728
  780
  834
  889
  947
  1,008
  1,070
  1,136
  1,204
  1,275
Total debt, $m
  189
  237
  296
  363
  437
  519
  608
  705
  809
  920
  1,038
  1,162
  1,293
  1,431
  1,575
  1,725
  1,882
  2,045
  2,215
  2,392
  2,576
  2,766
  2,965
  3,171
  3,385
  3,608
  3,839
  4,081
  4,332
  4,593
  4,866
Total liabilities, $m
  219
  267
  326
  393
  467
  549
  638
  735
  839
  950
  1,068
  1,192
  1,323
  1,461
  1,605
  1,755
  1,912
  2,075
  2,245
  2,422
  2,606
  2,796
  2,995
  3,201
  3,415
  3,638
  3,869
  4,111
  4,362
  4,623
  4,896
Total equity, $m
  165
  205
  250
  301
  358
  421
  490
  564
  643
  728
  819
  914
  1,015
  1,120
  1,231
  1,346
  1,466
  1,591
  1,722
  1,857
  1,998
  2,144
  2,296
  2,454
  2,618
  2,789
  2,967
  3,152
  3,345
  3,545
  3,754
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  384
  472
  576
  694
  825
  970
  1,128
  1,299
  1,482
  1,678
  1,887
  2,106
  2,338
  2,581
  2,836
  3,101
  3,378
  3,666
  3,967
  4,279
  4,604
  4,940
  5,291
  5,655
  6,033
  6,427
  6,836
  7,263
  7,707
  8,168
  8,650
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.145
  1.160
  1.180
  1.200
  1.220
  1.230
  1.240
  1.250
  1.260
  1.260
  1.270
  1.270
  1.270
  1.280
  1.280
  1.280
  1.280
  1.290
  1.290
  1.290
  1.290
  1.290
  1.290
  1.290
  1.290
  1.290
  1.290
  1.290
  1.300
  1.300
  1.300
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.424
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -1
  17
  22
  29
  36
  43
  52
  61
  70
  80
  91
  113
  125
  138
  151
  165
  179
  194
  210
  226
  243
  261
  279
  298
  318
  338
  360
  382
  405
  429
  454
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  18
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  35
  38
  42
  46
  51
  55
  60
  65
  70
  75
  81
  87
  93
  99
  105
  112
  119
  126
  134
  142
Funds from operations, $m
  -40
  38
  45
  53
  62
  72
  83
  95
  108
  121
  136
  147
  163
  180
  197
  216
  235
  254
  275
  296
  319
  342
  366
  391
  417
  444
  472
  501
  531
  563
  596
Change in working capital, $m
  -40
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
Cash from operations, $m
  0
  -30
  30
  36
  43
  51
  60
  70
  81
  93
  105
  115
  129
  144
  160
  176
  194
  212
  231
  250
  271
  292
  314
  337
  361
  386
  411
  438
  466
  495
  525
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -28
  -31
  -35
  -38
  -42
  -46
  -51
  -55
  -60
  -65
  -70
  -75
  -81
  -87
  -93
  -99
  -105
  -112
  -119
  -126
  -134
New CAPEX, $m
  -37
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -56
  -22
  -26
  -29
  -33
  -38
  -43
  -47
  -52
  -57
  -63
  -68
  -74
  -79
  -85
  -91
  -98
  -104
  -111
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -140
  -148
  -157
  -165
  -174
  -184
  -194
  -204
  -215
Free cash flow, $m
  -56
  -52
  4
  7
  10
  13
  18
  23
  29
  35
  42
  47
  55
  65
  75
  85
  96
  108
  120
  133
  146
  160
  174
  189
  204
  220
  237
  254
  272
  291
  310
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  42
  52
  59
  67
  74
  82
  89
  97
  104
  111
  118
  125
  131
  138
  144
  150
  157
  163
  170
  177
  184
  191
  198
  206
  214
  223
  232
  241
  251
  262
  273
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  39
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  42
  91
  59
  67
  74
  82
  89
  97
  104
  111
  118
  125
  131
  138
  144
  150
  157
  163
  170
  177
  184
  191
  198
  206
  214
  223
  232
  241
  251
  262
  273
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -15
  0
  63
  73
  84
  95
  107
  119
  132
  146
  160
  171
  187
  202
  219
  235
  253
  271
  290
  309
  330
  350
  372
  395
  419
  443
  469
  495
  523
  552
  583
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -23
  -40
  -45
  -51
  -57
  -63
  -69
  -74
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -164
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -193
  -201
  -209
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  18
  22
  27
  32
  38
  45
  53
  61
  70
  76
  86
  97
  108
  120
  133
  146
  160
  174
  189
  204
  220
  237
  254
  272
  291
  310
  331
  352
  374
Discount rate, %
 
  8.00
  8.40
  8.82
  9.26
  9.72
  10.21
  10.72
  11.26
  11.82
  12.41
  13.03
  13.68
  14.37
  15.09
  15.84
  16.63
  17.46
  18.34
  19.25
  20.22
  21.23
  22.29
  23.40
  24.57
  25.80
  27.09
  28.45
  29.87
  31.36
  32.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  15
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  22
  22
  20
  18
  17
  15
  13
  11
  9
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1

AAC Holdings, Inc. provides inpatient substance abuse treatment services for individuals with drug and alcohol addiction in the United States. Its therapy services include motivational interviewing, cognitive behavioral therapy, rational emotive behavior therapy, dialectical behavioral therapy, solution-focused therapy, eye movement desensitization and reprocessing, and systematic family intervention services. As of December 31, 2015, the company operated nine residential substance abuse treatment facilities and nine outpatient substance abuse treatment facilities. It also offers Internet marketing services to families and individuals, which are struggling with addiction and seeking treatment options through online directories, treatment provider reviews, forums, and professional communities; and online marketing solutions to other treatment providers, such as facility profiles, audience targeting, lead generation, and tools for digital reputation management. In addition, it performs drug testing and diagnostic laboratory services; and provides physician services to its clients. AAC Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Brentwood, Tennessee.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  AAC Holdings (AAC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -164.9
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow -4.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 32.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -28.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 23.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 109.1%
Total Debt to Equity 114.5%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Return On Total Capital -0.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Return On Equity -0.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 5.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Operating Margin 0.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -2.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Net Profit Margin -0.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Effective Tax Rate 14.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

AAC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AAC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $280 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by AAC Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of AAC Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AAC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 24.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8%, whose default value for AAC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of AAC Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of AAC Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AAC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AAC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for AAC Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for AAC Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AAC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AAC are equal to 22.9%.

Life of production assets of 10.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in AAC Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AAC is equal to 20%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $165 million for AAC Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 28.642 million for AAC Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of AAC Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to AAC Holdings, Inc. : June 2, 2017   [Jun-02-17 01:48PM  Capital Cube]
▶ [$$] Labor Dispute Shuts 110-Bed N.J. Addiction Center   [12:08AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ ETFs with exposure to AAC Holdings, Inc. : May 22, 2017   [May-22-17 01:17PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to AAC Holdings, Inc. : May 9, 2017   [May-09-17 04:13PM  Capital Cube]
▶ AAC Holdings reports 1Q loss   [May-03-17 07:01PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to AAC Holdings, Inc. : April 20, 2017   [Apr-20-17 02:09PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to AAC Holdings, Inc. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 04:13PM  Capital Cube]
▶ AAC Holdings beats 4Q profit forecasts   [Feb-27-17 07:30PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is AAC Holdings Inc (AAC) A Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-15-16 12:16AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Here's Why AAC Holdings Lost Over Half Its Value Today   [Nov-03-16 05:27PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ AAC shares climb on legal resolution   [Oct-24-16 04:15PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ AAC Holdings Increases Credit Facility   [Jul-14-16 06:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ 5 Stocks Set to Soar on Bullish Earnings   [May-03-16 01:15PM  at TheStreet]
Stock chart of AAC Financial statements of AAC Annual reports of AAC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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