Intrinsic value of Aaron's Inc. - AAN

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$35.94

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$35.94

 
Intrinsic value

$41.74

 
Up/down potential

+16%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AAN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.88
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  3,208
  3,272
  3,347
  3,433
  3,530
  3,637
  3,754
  3,882
  4,021
  4,170
  4,330
  4,501
  4,684
  4,878
  5,085
  5,304
  5,537
  5,783
  6,043
  6,318
  6,608
  6,915
  7,238
  7,578
  7,937
  8,315
  8,713
  9,131
  9,572
  10,036
  10,523
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,453
  2,508
  2,571
  2,642
  2,721
  2,807
  2,901
  3,002
  3,112
  3,229
  3,302
  3,436
  3,579
  3,730
  3,891
  4,062
  4,242
  4,433
  4,635
  4,848
  5,072
  5,309
  5,559
  5,822
  6,099
  6,391
  6,698
  7,022
  7,362
  7,719
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  587
  602
  617
  632
  648
  665
  681
  698
  716
  733
  752
  771
  790
  810
  830
  851
  872
  894
  916
  939
  962
  986
  1,011
  1,036
  1,062
  1,089
  1,116
  1,144
  1,173
  1,202
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,965
  3,040
  3,110
  3,188
  3,274
  3,369
  3,472
  3,582
  3,700
  3,828
  3,962
  4,054
  4,207
  4,369
  4,540
  4,721
  4,913
  5,114
  5,327
  5,551
  5,787
  6,034
  6,295
  6,570
  6,858
  7,161
  7,480
  7,814
  8,166
  8,535
  8,921
Operating income, $m
  243
  232
  237
  245
  255
  268
  283
  301
  320
  343
  367
  447
  477
  510
  545
  583
  625
  669
  716
  767
  822
  880
  942
  1,008
  1,078
  1,153
  1,232
  1,317
  1,406
  1,501
  1,602
EBITDA, $m
  1,630
  578
  590
  605
  624
  647
  672
  701
  733
  769
  808
  851
  897
  947
  1,001
  1,059
  1,121
  1,187
  1,258
  1,333
  1,414
  1,499
  1,590
  1,687
  1,789
  1,898
  2,013
  2,135
  2,264
  2,400
  2,545
Interest expense (income), $m
  23
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  30
  33
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  67
  72
  76
  81
  86
  92
  97
  103
  109
  116
Earnings before tax, $m
  218
  213
  217
  224
  233
  245
  258
  274
  292
  312
  335
  413
  440
  470
  502
  538
  576
  617
  661
  708
  759
  813
  870
  932
  997
  1,067
  1,141
  1,220
  1,303
  1,392
  1,486
Tax expense, $m
  79
  57
  59
  61
  63
  66
  70
  74
  79
  84
  90
  111
  119
  127
  136
  145
  155
  167
  178
  191
  205
  219
  235
  252
  269
  288
  308
  329
  352
  376
  401
Net income, $m
  139
  155
  159
  164
  170
  179
  188
  200
  213
  228
  244
  301
  321
  343
  367
  393
  420
  450
  482
  517
  554
  593
  635
  680
  728
  779
  833
  890
  951
  1,016
  1,085

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  309
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,616
  2,352
  2,406
  2,468
  2,538
  2,615
  2,699
  2,791
  2,891
  2,998
  3,113
  3,236
  3,367
  3,507
  3,656
  3,813
  3,980
  4,157
  4,344
  4,542
  4,751
  4,971
  5,203
  5,448
  5,706
  5,978
  6,264
  6,565
  6,881
  7,215
  7,565
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,307
  2,352
  2,406
  2,468
  2,538
  2,615
  2,699
  2,791
  2,891
  2,998
  3,113
  3,236
  3,367
  3,507
  3,656
  3,813
  3,980
  4,157
  4,344
  4,542
  4,751
  4,971
  5,203
  5,448
  5,706
  5,978
  6,264
  6,565
  6,881
  7,215
  7,565
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.391
  1.391
  1.391
  1.391
  1.391
  1.391
  1.391
  1.391
  1.391
  1.391
  1.391
  1.391
  1.391
  1.391
  1.391
  1.391
  1.391
  1.391
  1.391
  1.391
  1.391
  1.391
  1.391
  1.391
  1.391
  1.391
  1.391
  1.391
  1.391
  1.391
  1.391
Average production assets, $m
  1,437
  1,466
  1,500
  1,538
  1,581
  1,629
  1,682
  1,739
  1,801
  1,868
  1,940
  2,016
  2,098
  2,185
  2,278
  2,376
  2,480
  2,591
  2,707
  2,830
  2,961
  3,098
  3,242
  3,395
  3,556
  3,725
  3,903
  4,091
  4,288
  4,496
  4,714
Working capital, $m
  0
  -268
  -274
  -282
  -289
  -298
  -308
  -318
  -330
  -342
  -355
  -369
  -384
  -400
  -417
  -435
  -454
  -474
  -496
  -518
  -542
  -567
  -593
  -621
  -651
  -682
  -714
  -749
  -785
  -823
  -863
Total debt, $m
  498
  472
  497
  527
  559
  596
  635
  679
  725
  776
  830
  888
  950
  1,016
  1,086
  1,160
  1,239
  1,322
  1,410
  1,503
  1,602
  1,705
  1,815
  1,930
  2,051
  2,179
  2,314
  2,456
  2,605
  2,762
  2,927
Total liabilities, $m
  1,134
  1,108
  1,133
  1,163
  1,195
  1,232
  1,271
  1,315
  1,361
  1,412
  1,466
  1,524
  1,586
  1,652
  1,722
  1,796
  1,875
  1,958
  2,046
  2,139
  2,238
  2,341
  2,451
  2,566
  2,687
  2,815
  2,950
  3,092
  3,241
  3,398
  3,563
Total equity, $m
  1,482
  1,244
  1,273
  1,306
  1,342
  1,383
  1,428
  1,476
  1,529
  1,586
  1,647
  1,712
  1,781
  1,855
  1,934
  2,017
  2,106
  2,199
  2,298
  2,403
  2,513
  2,630
  2,752
  2,882
  3,018
  3,162
  3,313
  3,473
  3,640
  3,817
  4,002
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,616
  2,352
  2,406
  2,469
  2,537
  2,615
  2,699
  2,791
  2,890
  2,998
  3,113
  3,236
  3,367
  3,507
  3,656
  3,813
  3,981
  4,157
  4,344
  4,542
  4,751
  4,971
  5,203
  5,448
  5,705
  5,977
  6,263
  6,565
  6,881
  7,215
  7,565
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.336
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.460
  0.470
  0.490
  0.500
  0.520
  0.530
  0.550
  0.560
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
  0.720
  0.720
  0.730
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  139
  155
  159
  164
  170
  179
  188
  200
  213
  228
  244
  301
  321
  343
  367
  393
  420
  450
  482
  517
  554
  593
  635
  680
  728
  779
  833
  890
  951
  1,016
  1,085
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1,387
  346
  353
  360
  369
  379
  389
  401
  413
  426
  441
  403
  420
  437
  456
  475
  496
  518
  541
  566
  592
  620
  648
  679
  711
  745
  781
  818
  858
  899
  943
Funds from operations, $m
  421
  501
  511
  524
  539
  557
  577
  600
  626
  654
  685
  704
  741
  780
  822
  868
  916
  968
  1,024
  1,083
  1,146
  1,213
  1,284
  1,359
  1,439
  1,524
  1,613
  1,708
  1,809
  1,915
  2,027
Change in working capital, $m
  -44
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
Cash from operations, $m
  465
  529
  517
  531
  547
  566
  587
  611
  637
  666
  698
  718
  756
  796
  839
  886
  935
  989
  1,045
  1,106
  1,170
  1,238
  1,310
  1,387
  1,468
  1,555
  1,646
  1,743
  1,845
  1,953
  2,067
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -287
  -293
  -300
  -308
  -316
  -326
  -336
  -348
  -360
  -374
  -388
  -403
  -420
  -437
  -456
  -475
  -496
  -518
  -541
  -566
  -592
  -620
  -648
  -679
  -711
  -745
  -781
  -818
  -858
  -899
New CAPEX, $m
  -57
  -29
  -34
  -39
  -43
  -48
  -53
  -57
  -62
  -67
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -110
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -137
  -145
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -188
  -197
  -208
  -218
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -20
  -316
  -327
  -339
  -351
  -364
  -379
  -393
  -410
  -427
  -446
  -465
  -485
  -507
  -530
  -554
  -579
  -606
  -635
  -664
  -696
  -729
  -765
  -801
  -840
  -880
  -923
  -969
  -1,015
  -1,066
  -1,117
Free cash flow, $m
  445
  212
  191
  193
  196
  202
  209
  217
  228
  239
  253
  254
  271
  289
  310
  332
  356
  382
  410
  441
  474
  509
  546
  586
  629
  674
  723
  775
  829
  888
  950
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -110
  21
  25
  29
  33
  36
  40
  43
  47
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  104
  109
  115
  121
  128
  135
  142
  149
  157
  165
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -34
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -145
  21
  25
  29
  33
  36
  40
  43
  47
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  104
  109
  115
  121
  128
  135
  142
  149
  157
  165
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  301
  233
  216
  222
  229
  238
  248
  261
  274
  290
  307
  312
  333
  355
  380
  406
  435
  466
  499
  534
  572
  612
  655
  701
  750
  802
  858
  916
  979
  1,045
  1,115
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -115
  -24
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -74
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -168
  -176
  -185
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  262
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  471
  187
  189
  192
  197
  204
  212
  222
  233
  246
  247
  263
  281
  301
  323
  346
  372
  400
  429
  461
  496
  533
  572
  614
  659
  706
  757
  811
  869
  929
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  451
  172
  164
  158
  153
  148
  143
  139
  134
  129
  117
  112
  107
  101
  95
  88
  81
  74
  66
  59
  51
  44
  37
  31
  26
  21
  16
  13
  9
  7
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Aaron’s, Inc. operates an omnichannel provider of lease-purchase solutions. It operates through five segments: Sales and Lease Ownership, Progressive, DAMI, Franchise, and Manufacturing. The company engages in the sale, lease ownership, and specialty retailing of furniture, consumer electronics, home appliances, and accessories. As of February 17, 2017, it operated approximately 1,860 company-operated and franchised stores in 47 states and Canada, as well as its e-commerce platform. Aaron’s, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Aaron's Inc. (AAN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 18.5
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 6.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -6.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -0.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 7
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 30.4%
Total Debt to Equity 33.6%
Interest Coverage 10
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Return On Total Capital 7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Return On Equity 9.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 90.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 88.6%
EBITDA Margin 50.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.2%
Operating Margin 7.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Net Profit Margin 4.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Effective Tax Rate 36.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.2%
Payout Ratio 5%

AAN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AAN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3208 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Aaron's Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Aaron's Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AAN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AAN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Aaron's Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Aaron's Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AAN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 75%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $573 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AAN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.2% for Aaron's Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Aaron's Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AAN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AAN are equal to 44.8%.

Life of production assets of 1.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Aaron's Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AAN is equal to -8.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1482 million for Aaron's Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 70.948 million for Aaron's Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Aaron's Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.5 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Why Aaron's, Inc. Stock Jumped Today   [Apr-28-17 04:37PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Aaron's beats Street 1Q forecasts   [07:22AM  Associated Press]
▶ Aaron's, Inc. Directors Declare Dividend   [Feb-27-17 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ FPA Capital Funds Best and Worst Performers From Q4   [Feb-08-17 12:34PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ 3 Stocks Hit Hard By Downgrades This Week   [Jan-21-17 01:16PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Why GNC Holdings, Aaron's, and Dean Foods Slumped Today   [Jan-19-17 07:03PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Why Aaron's Inc Stock Dropped Today   [06:57PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Is Aarons, Inc. (AAN) A Good Stock to Buy?   [Nov-30-16 06:47PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Why Rent-to-Own Retailer Stocks Tumbled Today   [Oct-11-16 01:48PM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of AAN Financial statements of AAN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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