Intrinsic value of American Assets Trust - AAT

Previous Close

$40.20

  Intrinsic Value

$4.24

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-89%

  Value-price divergence*

+10%

Previous close

$40.20

 
Intrinsic value

$4.24

 
Up/down potential

-89%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+10%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as AAT.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AAT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.88
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
Revenue, $m
  295
  315
  337
  359
  381
  405
  430
  456
  483
  511
  540
  571
  603
  636
  671
  707
  746
  786
  827
  871
  917
  965
  1,015
  1,068
  1,123
  1,181
  1,241
  1,305
  1,372
  1,442
  1,515
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  206
  220
  234
  249
  265
  281
  298
  316
  334
  353
  373
  394
  416
  439
  463
  488
  514
  541
  570
  600
  631
  664
  698
  734
  772
  812
  853
  897
  943
  991
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  197
  206
  220
  234
  249
  265
  281
  298
  316
  334
  353
  373
  394
  416
  439
  463
  488
  514
  541
  570
  600
  631
  664
  698
  734
  772
  812
  853
  897
  943
  991
Operating income, $m
  98
  109
  116
  124
  132
  140
  149
  158
  167
  177
  187
  198
  209
  220
  232
  245
  258
  272
  286
  301
  317
  334
  351
  369
  388
  409
  429
  451
  475
  499
  524
EBITDA, $m
  169
  185
  198
  210
  224
  238
  252
  268
  283
  300
  317
  335
  354
  373
  394
  415
  438
  461
  486
  511
  538
  566
  596
  627
  659
  693
  729
  766
  805
  846
  889
Interest expense (income), $m
  48
  48
  51
  55
  59
  63
  68
  72
  77
  81
  86
  92
  97
  103
  109
  115
  122
  129
  136
  143
  151
  159
  168
  177
  186
  196
  207
  218
  229
  241
  253
Earnings before tax, $m
  46
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  100
  106
  111
  117
  123
  130
  136
  143
  150
  158
  166
  175
  183
  192
  202
  212
  223
  234
  246
  258
  271
Tax expense, $m
  0
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
Net income, $m
  46
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  99
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
  148
  155
  163
  171
  179
  188
  198

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  45
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,987
  2,075
  2,214
  2,359
  2,509
  2,666
  2,829
  2,999
  3,176
  3,361
  3,554
  3,755
  3,966
  4,185
  4,415
  4,654
  4,905
  5,168
  5,443
  5,730
  6,032
  6,347
  6,678
  7,024
  7,387
  7,768
  8,167
  8,585
  9,024
  9,484
  9,966
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,942
  2,075
  2,214
  2,359
  2,509
  2,666
  2,829
  2,999
  3,176
  3,361
  3,554
  3,755
  3,966
  4,185
  4,415
  4,654
  4,905
  5,168
  5,443
  5,730
  6,032
  6,347
  6,678
  7,024
  7,387
  7,768
  8,167
  8,585
  9,024
  9,484
  9,966
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
Average production assets, $m
  1,849
  1,976
  2,109
  2,246
  2,390
  2,539
  2,695
  2,857
  3,025
  3,201
  3,385
  3,577
  3,777
  3,986
  4,205
  4,433
  4,672
  4,922
  5,184
  5,458
  5,745
  6,045
  6,360
  6,690
  7,036
  7,398
  7,778
  8,177
  8,594
  9,033
  9,492
Working capital, $m
  0
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -172
  -181
  -190
  -200
  -210
  -221
  -232
Total debt, $m
  1,062
  1,142
  1,227
  1,314
  1,406
  1,501
  1,600
  1,703
  1,810
  1,922
  2,039
  2,161
  2,288
  2,421
  2,560
  2,706
  2,858
  3,017
  3,183
  3,358
  3,540
  3,731
  3,932
  4,142
  4,362
  4,592
  4,834
  5,087
  5,353
  5,632
  5,925
Total liabilities, $m
  1,177
  1,257
  1,342
  1,429
  1,521
  1,616
  1,715
  1,818
  1,925
  2,037
  2,154
  2,276
  2,403
  2,536
  2,675
  2,821
  2,973
  3,132
  3,298
  3,473
  3,655
  3,846
  4,047
  4,257
  4,477
  4,707
  4,949
  5,202
  5,468
  5,747
  6,040
Total equity, $m
  810
  817
  872
  929
  989
  1,050
  1,115
  1,182
  1,252
  1,324
  1,400
  1,480
  1,562
  1,649
  1,739
  1,834
  1,933
  2,036
  2,144
  2,258
  2,376
  2,501
  2,631
  2,767
  2,910
  3,060
  3,218
  3,382
  3,555
  3,737
  3,927
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,987
  2,074
  2,214
  2,358
  2,510
  2,666
  2,830
  3,000
  3,177
  3,361
  3,554
  3,756
  3,965
  4,185
  4,414
  4,655
  4,906
  5,168
  5,442
  5,731
  6,031
  6,347
  6,678
  7,024
  7,387
  7,767
  8,167
  8,584
  9,023
  9,484
  9,967
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.311
  1.400
  1.410
  1.410
  1.420
  1.430
  1.430
  1.440
  1.450
  1.450
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.470
  1.470
  1.480
  1.480
  1.480
  1.480
  1.490
  1.490
  1.490
  1.490
  1.500
  1.500
  1.500
  1.500
  1.500
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  46
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  99
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
  148
  155
  163
  171
  179
  188
  198
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  71
  76
  81
  86
  92
  98
  104
  110
  116
  123
  130
  138
  145
  153
  162
  171
  180
  189
  199
  210
  221
  233
  245
  257
  271
  285
  299
  314
  331
  347
  365
Funds from operations, $m
  125
  121
  129
  137
  145
  154
  163
  172
  182
  193
  204
  215
  227
  239
  252
  265
  279
  294
  309
  325
  342
  360
  378
  398
  418
  439
  462
  485
  510
  536
  563
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
Cash from operations, $m
  123
  124
  132
  140
  149
  157
  167
  176
  187
  197
  208
  219
  231
  244
  257
  271
  285
  300
  316
  332
  349
  367
  386
  406
  427
  448
  471
  495
  520
  546
  574
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -71
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -92
  -98
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -123
  -130
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -162
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -199
  -210
  -221
  -233
  -245
  -257
  -271
  -285
  -299
  -314
  -331
  -347
New CAPEX, $m
  -60
  -128
  -133
  -138
  -143
  -149
  -155
  -162
  -169
  -176
  -184
  -192
  -200
  -209
  -219
  -229
  -239
  -250
  -262
  -274
  -287
  -301
  -315
  -330
  -346
  -362
  -380
  -398
  -418
  -438
  -460
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -64
  -199
  -209
  -219
  -229
  -241
  -253
  -266
  -279
  -292
  -307
  -322
  -338
  -354
  -372
  -391
  -410
  -430
  -451
  -473
  -497
  -522
  -548
  -575
  -603
  -633
  -665
  -697
  -732
  -769
  -807
Free cash flow, $m
  59
  -75
  -77
  -79
  -81
  -84
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -176
  -185
  -193
  -203
  -212
  -222
  -233
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  3
  80
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  145
  152
  159
  167
  174
  183
  191
  200
  210
  220
  231
  242
  254
  266
  279
  293
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  10
  8
  7
  7
  6
  6
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  10
  88
  91
  95
  97
  101
  104
  107
  111
  115
  120
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  152
  159
  167
  174
  183
  191
  200
  210
  220
  231
  242
  254
  266
  279
  293
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  69
  13
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
  56
  59
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -10
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -190
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  45
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  6
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
Discount rate, %
 
  9.10
  9.56
  10.03
  10.53
  11.06
  11.61
  12.19
  12.80
  13.44
  14.12
  14.82
  15.56
  16.34
  17.16
  18.02
  18.92
  19.86
  20.86
  21.90
  23.00
  24.15
  25.35
  26.62
  27.95
  29.35
  30.82
  32.36
  33.97
  35.67
  37.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  5
  -33
  -31
  -29
  -27
  -24
  -22
  -19
  -17
  -15
  -13
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.6
  99.2
  98.9
  98.6
  98.4
  98.2
  98.0
  97.9
  97.8
  97.7
  97.6
  97.6
  97.6
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5

American Assets Trust, Inc. is a full service, vertically integrated and self-administered real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company owns, operates, acquires and develops retail, office, multifamily and mixed-use properties in Southern California, Northern California, Oregon, Washington, Texas and Hawaii markets. The Company operates in four business segments: retail, office, multifamily and mixed-use. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's portfolio consisted of 11 retail shopping centers; seven office properties; a mixed-use property consisting of a 369-room all-suite hotel and a retail shopping center, and five multifamily properties. Additionally, as of December 31, 2016, the Company owned land at four of its properties that it classified as held for development and construction in progress. The Company's markets include San Diego, the San Francisco Bay Area, Portland, Oregon, Bellevue, Washington and Oahu, Hawaii.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  American Assets Trust (AAT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 40
Price to Sales 6.2
Price to Book 2.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 29.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -55.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 131.1%
Total Debt to Equity 131.1%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Return On Total Capital 2.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Return On Equity 5.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 63.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 64.3%
EBITDA Margin 55.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 56.7%
Operating Margin 33.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 15.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.7%
Net Profit Margin 15.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.7%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 139.1%

AAT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AAT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $295 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by American Assets Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of American Assets Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AAT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.1%, whose default value for AAT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of American Assets Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of American Assets Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AAT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 65.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AAT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.5% for American Assets Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for American Assets Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AAT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AAT are equal to 626.6%.

Life of production assets of 26 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in American Assets Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AAT is equal to -15.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $810 million for American Assets Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 47.771 million for American Assets Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of American Assets Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Weekly CEO Buys Highlight   [Sep-11-17 03:15PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Weekly CEO Buys Highlights   [Aug-28-17 12:26PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Weekly CEO Buys Highlights   [Aug-21-17 01:43PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Weekly CEO Buys Highlights   [Aug-14-17 12:06PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ American Assets Trust reports 2Q results   [Aug-01-17 11:27PM  Associated Press]
▶ American Assets Trust reports 2Q results   [06:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ Weekly CEO Buys Highlights   [May-22-17 01:55PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ American Assets Trust reports 1Q results   [May-02-17 07:33PM  Associated Press]
▶ Weekly CEO Buys Highlights   [Mar-20-17 01:43PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ American Assets Trust CEO Invests in Company   [Feb-28-17 11:03AM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Weekly CEO Buys Highlight   [Feb-27-17 11:59AM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Is American Assets Trust, Inc (AAT) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-20-16 03:55PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of AAT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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