Intrinsic value of Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings - AAWW

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$50.05

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$50.05

 
Intrinsic value

$14.67

 
Up/down potential

-71%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AAWW stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.93
  13.40
  12.56
  11.80
  11.12
  10.51
  9.96
  9.46
  9.02
  8.62
  8.25
  7.93
  7.64
  7.37
  7.14
  6.92
  6.73
  6.56
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.83
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
  5.40
Revenue, $m
  1,840
  2,087
  2,349
  2,626
  2,918
  3,225
  3,546
  3,881
  4,231
  4,596
  4,975
  5,370
  5,780
  6,206
  6,649
  7,109
  7,587
  8,085
  8,602
  9,141
  9,702
  10,286
  10,895
  11,530
  12,192
  12,883
  13,605
  14,359
  15,147
  15,971
  16,833
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,023
  2,277
  2,545
  2,828
  3,125
  3,436
  3,761
  4,099
  4,452
  4,819
  5,197
  5,594
  6,006
  6,435
  6,880
  7,343
  7,825
  8,326
  8,847
  9,390
  9,955
  10,544
  11,159
  11,800
  12,469
  13,167
  13,897
  14,660
  15,457
  16,292
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,674
  2,023
  2,277
  2,545
  2,828
  3,125
  3,436
  3,761
  4,099
  4,452
  4,819
  5,197
  5,594
  6,006
  6,435
  6,880
  7,343
  7,825
  8,326
  8,847
  9,390
  9,955
  10,544
  11,159
  11,800
  12,469
  13,167
  13,897
  14,660
  15,457
  16,292
Operating income, $m
  165
  63
  72
  80
  90
  100
  110
  121
  132
  144
  156
  173
  186
  200
  214
  229
  244
  260
  277
  294
  312
  331
  351
  371
  392
  415
  438
  462
  487
  514
  542
EBITDA, $m
  334
  257
  290
  324
  360
  398
  437
  479
  522
  567
  614
  662
  713
  765
  820
  877
  936
  997
  1,061
  1,127
  1,196
  1,268
  1,344
  1,422
  1,504
  1,589
  1,678
  1,771
  1,868
  1,970
  2,076
Interest expense (income), $m
  66
  60
  72
  85
  99
  114
  129
  145
  161
  179
  197
  215
  235
  255
  276
  298
  321
  345
  369
  395
  422
  449
  478
  508
  540
  573
  607
  642
  680
  719
  760
Earnings before tax, $m
  89
  3
  -1
  -5
  -9
  -14
  -19
  -24
  -29
  -35
  -41
  -43
  -49
  -56
  -62
  -70
  -77
  -85
  -93
  -101
  -109
  -118
  -128
  -137
  -148
  -158
  -169
  -180
  -192
  -205
  -218
Tax expense, $m
  46
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  42
  2
  -1
  -5
  -9
  -14
  -19
  -24
  -29
  -35
  -41
  -43
  -49
  -56
  -62
  -70
  -77
  -85
  -93
  -101
  -109
  -118
  -128
  -137
  -148
  -158
  -169
  -180
  -192
  -205
  -218

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  128
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,247
  4,668
  5,254
  5,874
  6,528
  7,214
  7,933
  8,683
  9,466
  10,282
  11,131
  12,013
  12,931
  13,884
  14,874
  15,904
  16,974
  18,087
  19,245
  20,450
  21,704
  23,011
  24,373
  25,794
  27,275
  28,822
  30,437
  32,124
  33,887
  35,730
  37,658
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,119
  4,668
  5,254
  5,874
  6,528
  7,214
  7,933
  8,683
  9,466
  10,282
  11,131
  12,013
  12,931
  13,884
  14,874
  15,904
  16,974
  18,087
  19,245
  20,450
  21,704
  23,011
  24,373
  25,794
  27,275
  28,822
  30,437
  32,124
  33,887
  35,730
  37,658
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
Average production assets, $m
  3,505
  3,975
  4,474
  5,002
  5,559
  6,143
  6,755
  7,394
  8,061
  8,755
  9,478
  10,230
  11,011
  11,823
  12,666
  13,543
  14,454
  15,402
  16,388
  17,414
  18,482
  19,595
  20,755
  21,964
  23,226
  24,543
  25,918
  27,354
  28,856
  30,425
  32,067
Working capital, $m
  -207
  -171
  -193
  -215
  -239
  -264
  -291
  -318
  -347
  -377
  -408
  -440
  -474
  -509
  -545
  -583
  -622
  -663
  -705
  -750
  -796
  -843
  -893
  -945
  -1,000
  -1,056
  -1,116
  -1,177
  -1,242
  -1,310
  -1,380
Total debt, $m
  1,851
  2,071
  2,442
  2,834
  3,247
  3,680
  4,134
  4,609
  5,104
  5,619
  6,156
  6,713
  7,293
  7,896
  8,522
  9,172
  9,849
  10,552
  11,284
  12,045
  12,838
  13,664
  14,525
  15,423
  16,359
  17,336
  18,357
  19,423
  20,537
  21,702
  22,921
Total liabilities, $m
  2,730
  2,950
  3,321
  3,713
  4,126
  4,559
  5,013
  5,488
  5,983
  6,498
  7,035
  7,592
  8,172
  8,775
  9,401
  10,051
  10,728
  11,431
  12,163
  12,924
  13,717
  14,543
  15,404
  16,302
  17,238
  18,215
  19,236
  20,302
  21,416
  22,581
  23,800
Total equity, $m
  1,517
  1,718
  1,934
  2,162
  2,402
  2,655
  2,919
  3,195
  3,484
  3,784
  4,096
  4,421
  4,758
  5,109
  5,474
  5,853
  6,247
  6,656
  7,082
  7,526
  7,987
  8,468
  8,969
  9,492
  10,037
  10,606
  11,201
  11,822
  12,470
  13,149
  13,858
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,247
  4,668
  5,255
  5,875
  6,528
  7,214
  7,932
  8,683
  9,467
  10,282
  11,131
  12,013
  12,930
  13,884
  14,875
  15,904
  16,975
  18,087
  19,245
  20,450
  21,704
  23,011
  24,373
  25,794
  27,275
  28,821
  30,437
  32,124
  33,886
  35,730
  37,658
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.220
  1.210
  1.260
  1.310
  1.350
  1.390
  1.420
  1.440
  1.470
  1.490
  1.500
  1.520
  1.530
  1.550
  1.560
  1.570
  1.580
  1.590
  1.590
  1.600
  1.610
  1.610
  1.620
  1.620
  1.630
  1.630
  1.640
  1.640
  1.650
  1.650
  1.650
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.337
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  42
  2
  -1
  -5
  -9
  -14
  -19
  -24
  -29
  -35
  -41
  -43
  -49
  -56
  -62
  -70
  -77
  -85
  -93
  -101
  -109
  -118
  -128
  -137
  -148
  -158
  -169
  -180
  -192
  -205
  -218
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  169
  194
  218
  243
  270
  298
  327
  358
  390
  423
  457
  489
  527
  566
  606
  648
  692
  737
  784
  833
  884
  938
  993
  1,051
  1,111
  1,174
  1,240
  1,309
  1,381
  1,456
  1,534
Funds from operations, $m
  161
  196
  217
  238
  261
  284
  308
  334
  361
  388
  417
  447
  478
  510
  544
  578
  615
  652
  692
  732
  775
  819
  865
  913
  964
  1,016
  1,071
  1,128
  1,188
  1,251
  1,316
Change in working capital, $m
  -71
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
Cash from operations, $m
  232
  328
  239
  261
  285
  309
  335
  361
  389
  418
  448
  479
  511
  545
  580
  616
  654
  693
  734
  777
  821
  867
  915
  966
  1,018
  1,073
  1,130
  1,190
  1,253
  1,318
  1,387
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -168
  -190
  -214
  -239
  -266
  -294
  -323
  -354
  -386
  -419
  -453
  -489
  -527
  -566
  -606
  -648
  -692
  -737
  -784
  -833
  -884
  -938
  -993
  -1,051
  -1,111
  -1,174
  -1,240
  -1,309
  -1,381
  -1,456
New CAPEX, $m
  -364
  -470
  -499
  -528
  -556
  -584
  -612
  -639
  -667
  -695
  -723
  -752
  -781
  -812
  -844
  -877
  -911
  -948
  -986
  -1,026
  -1,068
  -1,113
  -1,160
  -1,209
  -1,262
  -1,317
  -1,375
  -1,437
  -1,501
  -1,570
  -1,642
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -457
  -638
  -689
  -742
  -795
  -850
  -906
  -962
  -1,021
  -1,081
  -1,142
  -1,205
  -1,270
  -1,339
  -1,410
  -1,483
  -1,559
  -1,640
  -1,723
  -1,810
  -1,901
  -1,997
  -2,098
  -2,202
  -2,313
  -2,428
  -2,549
  -2,677
  -2,810
  -2,951
  -3,098
Free cash flow, $m
  -225
  -309
  -451
  -481
  -511
  -541
  -571
  -601
  -631
  -662
  -694
  -726
  -759
  -794
  -829
  -867
  -905
  -946
  -989
  -1,034
  -1,081
  -1,130
  -1,182
  -1,237
  -1,295
  -1,355
  -1,419
  -1,486
  -1,557
  -1,632
  -1,710
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -80
  348
  371
  392
  413
  434
  454
  474
  495
  515
  536
  558
  580
  602
  626
  651
  676
  703
  732
  761
  793
  826
  861
  898
  936
  977
  1,021
  1,066
  1,114
  1,165
  1,218
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -11
  162
  296
  317
  339
  360
  381
  403
  425
  447
  470
  493
  517
  542
  568
  595
  623
  652
  683
  715
  749
  785
  823
  862
  903
  947
  993
  1,041
  1,092
  1,145
  1,201
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -75
  510
  667
  709
  752
  794
  835
  877
  920
  962
  1,006
  1,051
  1,097
  1,144
  1,194
  1,246
  1,299
  1,355
  1,415
  1,476
  1,542
  1,611
  1,684
  1,760
  1,839
  1,924
  2,014
  2,107
  2,206
  2,310
  2,419
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -301
  39
  -80
  -89
  -98
  -107
  -117
  -127
  -136
  -147
  -157
  -168
  -179
  -191
  -203
  -216
  -229
  -243
  -257
  -272
  -288
  -304
  -321
  -339
  -358
  -378
  -399
  -420
  -443
  -467
  -492
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -63
  -201
  -216
  -228
  -240
  -253
  -264
  -276
  -288
  -300
  -312
  -325
  -338
  -351
  -365
  -379
  -394
  -410
  -426
  -443
  -462
  -481
  -501
  -523
  -545
  -569
  -594
  -621
  -649
  -678
  -709
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  8.30
  8.72
  9.15
  9.61
  10.09
  10.59
  11.12
  11.68
  12.26
  12.88
  13.52
  14.20
  14.91
  15.65
  16.43
  17.26
  18.12
  19.02
  19.97
  20.97
  22.02
  23.12
  24.28
  25.49
  26.77
  28.11
  29.51
  30.99
  32.54
  34.16
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  88.6
  73.4
  61.3
  51.6
  43.7
  37.2
  31.9
  27.5
  23.8
  20.7
  18.1
  15.9
  14.0
  12.3
  10.9
  9.7
  8.6
  7.6
  6.8
  6.1
  5.4
  4.9
  4.4
  3.9
  3.5
  3.2
  2.8
  2.6
  2.3
  2.1

Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides outsourced aircraft and aviation operating services worldwide. It operates through three segments: ACMI, Charter, and Dry Leasing. The company offers outsourced cargo and passenger aircraft operating solutions comprising contractual service arrangements, which include the provision of aircraft to customers and value-added services, such as crew, maintenance, and insurance; and crew, maintenance, and insurance services for the customer providing aircraft. It also provides cargo and passenger charter services to the U.S. Military Air Mobility Command, charter brokers, freight forwarders, direct shippers, airlines, sports teams and fans, and private charter customers; and aircraft and engines dry leasing services. The company also serves express delivery providers, as well as e-commerce retailers. Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Purchase, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings (AAWW)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 29.8
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 0.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -9.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 33.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -9.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 109.8%
Total Debt to Equity 122%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Return On Total Capital 1.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Return On Equity 2.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 77.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 73.5%
EBITDA Margin 17.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.4%
Operating Margin 9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Net Profit Margin 2.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Effective Tax Rate 51.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 59.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

AAWW stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AAWW stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1840 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AAWW stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.3%, whose default value for AAWW is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AAWW stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 97%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AAWW stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AAWW stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AAWW are equal to 190.5%.

Life of production assets of 20.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AAWW is equal to -8.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1517 million for Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 25.175 million for Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.


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Stock chart of AAWW Financial statements of AAWW Annual reports of AAWW
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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