Intrinsic value of ABM Industries - ABM

Previous Close

$42.94

  Intrinsic Value

$35.49

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-17%

  Value-price divergence*

+159%

Previous close

$42.94

 
Intrinsic value

$35.49

 
Up/down potential

-17%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

+159%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ABM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.04
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.88
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.99
Revenue, $m
  5,145
  5,387
  5,642
  5,910
  6,193
  6,490
  6,803
  7,132
  7,479
  7,843
  8,226
  8,629
  9,052
  9,497
  9,965
  10,456
  10,972
  11,515
  12,085
  12,684
  13,313
  13,973
  14,667
  15,396
  16,162
  16,966
  17,811
  18,698
  19,630
  20,608
  21,636
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  5,302
  5,548
  5,808
  6,081
  6,369
  6,672
  6,990
  7,325
  7,677
  8,048
  8,346
  8,756
  9,186
  9,638
  10,114
  10,613
  11,138
  11,689
  12,268
  12,877
  13,516
  14,187
  14,892
  15,633
  16,411
  17,228
  18,086
  18,987
  19,933
  20,927
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  5,090
  5,302
  5,548
  5,808
  6,081
  6,369
  6,672
  6,990
  7,325
  7,677
  8,048
  8,346
  8,756
  9,186
  9,638
  10,114
  10,613
  11,138
  11,689
  12,268
  12,877
  13,516
  14,187
  14,892
  15,633
  16,411
  17,228
  18,086
  18,987
  19,933
  20,927
Operating income, $m
  55
  85
  93
  102
  111
  121
  131
  142
  154
  166
  178
  283
  296
  311
  326
  342
  359
  377
  396
  415
  436
  458
  480
  504
  529
  556
  583
  612
  643
  675
  708
EBITDA, $m
  113
  187
  196
  205
  215
  225
  236
  247
  259
  272
  285
  299
  314
  329
  346
  363
  381
  399
  419
  440
  462
  485
  509
  534
  561
  588
  618
  648
  681
  715
  750
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  9
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  37
  40
  44
  48
  52
  57
  61
  66
  71
  76
  82
  88
  94
  100
  107
  114
  122
  130
  138
  147
Earnings before tax, $m
  52
  76
  82
  88
  95
  103
  110
  118
  127
  135
  145
  246
  256
  267
  278
  290
  303
  316
  330
  344
  360
  376
  392
  410
  429
  448
  469
  490
  513
  537
  562
Tax expense, $m
  -10
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  132
  139
  145
  152
Net income, $m
  57
  55
  60
  65
  70
  75
  80
  86
  92
  99
  106
  179
  187
  195
  203
  212
  221
  231
  241
  251
  262
  274
  287
  299
  313
  327
  342
  358
  374
  392
  410

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  56
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,281
  2,330
  2,440
  2,556
  2,678
  2,807
  2,942
  3,085
  3,235
  3,392
  3,558
  3,732
  3,915
  4,108
  4,310
  4,522
  4,746
  4,980
  5,227
  5,486
  5,758
  6,044
  6,344
  6,659
  6,991
  7,338
  7,704
  8,087
  8,490
  8,914
  9,358
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,225
  2,330
  2,440
  2,556
  2,678
  2,807
  2,942
  3,085
  3,235
  3,392
  3,558
  3,732
  3,915
  4,108
  4,310
  4,522
  4,746
  4,980
  5,227
  5,486
  5,758
  6,044
  6,344
  6,659
  6,991
  7,338
  7,704
  8,087
  8,490
  8,914
  9,358
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.313
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
Average production assets, $m
  186
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
  245
  257
  269
  282
  296
  311
  326
  342
  359
  376
  395
  415
  435
  457
  479
  503
  528
  554
  582
  611
  641
  673
  707
  742
  779
Working capital, $m
  395
  356
  372
  390
  409
  428
  449
  471
  494
  518
  543
  569
  597
  627
  658
  690
  724
  760
  798
  837
  879
  922
  968
  1,016
  1,067
  1,120
  1,176
  1,234
  1,296
  1,360
  1,428
Total debt, $m
  268
  329
  393
  462
  533
  609
  688
  772
  860
  952
  1,050
  1,152
  1,259
  1,372
  1,491
  1,616
  1,747
  1,885
  2,029
  2,181
  2,341
  2,509
  2,685
  2,870
  3,064
  3,269
  3,483
  3,708
  3,945
  4,193
  4,454
Total liabilities, $m
  1,307
  1,368
  1,432
  1,501
  1,572
  1,648
  1,727
  1,811
  1,899
  1,991
  2,089
  2,191
  2,298
  2,411
  2,530
  2,655
  2,786
  2,924
  3,068
  3,220
  3,380
  3,548
  3,724
  3,909
  4,103
  4,308
  4,522
  4,747
  4,984
  5,232
  5,493
Total equity, $m
  974
  962
  1,008
  1,056
  1,106
  1,159
  1,215
  1,274
  1,336
  1,401
  1,469
  1,541
  1,617
  1,696
  1,780
  1,868
  1,960
  2,057
  2,159
  2,266
  2,378
  2,496
  2,620
  2,750
  2,887
  3,031
  3,182
  3,340
  3,507
  3,681
  3,865
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,281
  2,330
  2,440
  2,557
  2,678
  2,807
  2,942
  3,085
  3,235
  3,392
  3,558
  3,732
  3,915
  4,107
  4,310
  4,523
  4,746
  4,981
  5,227
  5,486
  5,758
  6,044
  6,344
  6,659
  6,990
  7,339
  7,704
  8,087
  8,491
  8,913
  9,358
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.275
  0.340
  0.390
  0.440
  0.480
  0.530
  0.570
  0.610
  0.640
  0.680
  0.710
  0.750
  0.780
  0.810
  0.840
  0.870
  0.890
  0.920
  0.940
  0.960
  0.980
  1.010
  1.020
  1.040
  1.060
  1.080
  1.090
  1.110
  1.130
  1.140
  1.150
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  57
  55
  60
  65
  70
  75
  80
  86
  92
  99
  106
  179
  187
  195
  203
  212
  221
  231
  241
  251
  262
  274
  287
  299
  313
  327
  342
  358
  374
  392
  410
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  58
  102
  102
  103
  103
  104
  104
  105
  106
  106
  107
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
Funds from operations, $m
  -5
  157
  162
  167
  173
  179
  185
  191
  198
  205
  213
  196
  204
  213
  222
  232
  242
  253
  264
  276
  288
  301
  315
  329
  344
  360
  377
  394
  412
  432
  452
Change in working capital, $m
  -89
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  61
  65
  68
Cash from operations, $m
  84
  141
  145
  150
  154
  159
  164
  170
  175
  181
  188
  170
  177
  184
  192
  200
  208
  217
  226
  236
  247
  258
  269
  281
  294
  307
  321
  336
  351
  367
  384
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
New CAPEX, $m
  -44
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -135
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
Free cash flow, $m
  -51
  123
  126
  129
  133
  136
  140
  145
  149
  154
  159
  139
  145
  150
  156
  163
  169
  176
  184
  191
  200
  208
  217
  226
  236
  247
  258
  269
  281
  294
  307
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  110
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  79
  84
  88
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
  119
  125
  131
  138
  145
  152
  160
  168
  176
  185
  194
  204
  214
  225
  237
  248
  261
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -41
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  90
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  79
  84
  88
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
  119
  125
  131
  138
  145
  152
  160
  168
  176
  185
  194
  204
  214
  225
  237
  248
  261
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  35
  183
  190
  197
  204
  212
  220
  228
  237
  246
  256
  241
  252
  263
  275
  287
  300
  314
  328
  343
  359
  376
  393
  412
  431
  451
  472
  494
  518
  542
  568
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  34
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -175
  -184
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  56
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  195
  145
  149
  154
  159
  164
  169
  175
  181
  187
  169
  176
  184
  192
  200
  208
  217
  227
  236
  247
  258
  269
  281
  294
  307
  321
  336
  351
  368
  385
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  187
  133
  130
  127
  123
  119
  114
  109
  104
  98
  80
  75
  70
  64
  59
  53
  47
  42
  36
  31
  27
  22
  18
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

ABM Industries Incorporated provides integrated facility solutions in the United States and internationally. It offers carpet cleaning and dusting, floor cleaning and finishing, window washing, and other building cleaning services for commercial office buildings, data centers, educational institutions, government buildings, health facilities, industrial buildings, retail stores, sport event facilities, and transportation hubs. The company also provides onsite mechanical engineering and technical services and solutions relating to a range of facilities and infrastructure systems; and parking and transportation services for clients at various locations, including commercial office buildings, educational institutions, health facilities, hotels, sport event facilities, and transportation hubs. In addition, it offers custom energy solutions, HVAC, electrical, lighting, and other general maintenance and repair services comprising bundled energy solutions, energy efficiency upgrades, installations, preventative maintenance, retro-commissioning, and retrofits for clients in the private and public sectors; construction management, energy efficiency upgrades, healthcare support, leadership development, military base operations, and other mission support to the U.S. government entities; and facility management and environmental, food and nutrition, healthcare technology management, and patient and guest services to healthcare systems and hospitals. Further, the company franchises engineering services under the Linc Service and TEGG brands through individual and area franchises; and provides facility solutions to airlines and airports related to access control, aircraft cabin cleaning, shuttle bus operations, and passenger assistance. The company was founded in 1909 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ABM Industries (ABM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 41.9
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 2.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 28.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 59.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 63%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 27.5%
Total Debt to Equity 27.5%
Interest Coverage 14
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Return On Total Capital 4.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Return On Equity 5.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Asset Turnover 2.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 10.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
EBITDA Margin 2.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Operating Margin 1.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Net Profit Margin 1.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Effective Tax Rate -19.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.1%
Payout Ratio 64.9%

ABM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ABM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $5145 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ABM Industries. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of ABM Industries. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ABM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ABM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ABM Industries, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ABM Industries.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ABM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 98.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ABM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for ABM Industries.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ABM Industries. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ABM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ABM are equal to 3.6%.

Life of production assets of 18.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ABM Industries operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ABM is equal to 6.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $974 million for ABM Industries - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 54.435 million for ABM Industries is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ABM Industries at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ABM UK Expands Significantly With Key Contract Wins   [Aug-17-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Company News for July 13, 2017   [Jul-13-17 10:08AM  Zacks]
▶ ABM Appoints New General Counsel   [Jun-26-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ McLean contractor buys ABM Industries' government services business   [Jun-08-17 02:55PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ ABM Industries beats 2Q profit forecasts   [Jun-07-17 04:39PM  Associated Press]
▶ ABM Announces COO Succession Plan   [04:35PM  Business Wire]
▶ ABM Industries reports 1Q loss   [05:01PM  Associated Press]
Stock chart of ABM Financial statements of ABM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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