Intrinsic value of ABM Industries - ABM

Previous Close

$42.64

  Intrinsic Value

$34.07

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-20%

  Value-price divergence*

-90%

Previous close

$42.64

 
Intrinsic value

$34.07

 
Up/down potential

-20%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-90%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ABM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.04
  4.30
  4.37
  4.43
  4.49
  4.54
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.91
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
Revenue, $m
  5,145
  5,366
  5,601
  5,849
  6,112
  6,389
  6,682
  6,991
  7,318
  7,661
  8,024
  8,405
  8,807
  9,230
  9,675
  10,143
  10,636
  11,154
  11,699
  12,271
  12,873
  13,506
  14,171
  14,870
  15,604
  16,375
  17,186
  18,037
  18,932
  19,872
  20,859
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  5,282
  5,509
  5,749
  6,003
  6,271
  6,555
  6,854
  7,169
  7,502
  7,852
  8,130
  8,519
  8,928
  9,358
  9,811
  10,288
  10,789
  11,316
  11,869
  12,452
  13,064
  13,707
  14,383
  15,093
  15,839
  16,623
  17,447
  18,312
  19,221
  20,176
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  5,090
  5,282
  5,509
  5,749
  6,003
  6,271
  6,555
  6,854
  7,169
  7,502
  7,852
  8,130
  8,519
  8,928
  9,358
  9,811
  10,288
  10,789
  11,316
  11,869
  12,452
  13,064
  13,707
  14,383
  15,093
  15,839
  16,623
  17,447
  18,312
  19,221
  20,176
Operating income, $m
  55
  84
  92
  100
  109
  118
  128
  138
  148
  160
  171
  275
  288
  302
  317
  332
  348
  365
  383
  402
  422
  442
  464
  487
  511
  536
  563
  591
  620
  651
  683
EBITDA, $m
  113
  186
  194
  203
  212
  222
  232
  242
  254
  266
  278
  292
  305
  320
  336
  352
  369
  387
  406
  426
  446
  468
  491
  516
  541
  568
  596
  626
  657
  689
  723
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  9
  11
  13
  16
  18
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  42
  46
  50
  54
  58
  63
  68
  73
  78
  84
  90
  96
  102
  109
  116
  124
  132
  140
Earnings before tax, $m
  52
  75
  81
  87
  93
  100
  107
  115
  122
  131
  140
  240
  250
  260
  271
  282
  294
  307
  320
  334
  349
  364
  380
  397
  415
  434
  454
  474
  496
  519
  543
Tax expense, $m
  -10
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
Net income, $m
  57
  55
  59
  63
  68
  73
  78
  84
  89
  96
  102
  175
  182
  190
  198
  206
  215
  224
  234
  244
  255
  266
  278
  290
  303
  317
  331
  346
  362
  379
  396

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  54
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,279
  2,321
  2,422
  2,530
  2,643
  2,763
  2,890
  3,024
  3,165
  3,314
  3,470
  3,636
  3,809
  3,992
  4,185
  4,387
  4,600
  4,824
  5,060
  5,308
  5,568
  5,842
  6,129
  6,432
  6,749
  7,083
  7,433
  7,802
  8,189
  8,595
  9,022
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,225
  2,321
  2,422
  2,530
  2,643
  2,763
  2,890
  3,024
  3,165
  3,314
  3,470
  3,636
  3,809
  3,992
  4,185
  4,387
  4,600
  4,824
  5,060
  5,308
  5,568
  5,842
  6,129
  6,432
  6,749
  7,083
  7,433
  7,802
  8,189
  8,595
  9,022
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.312
  2.312
  2.313
  2.312
  2.313
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
  2.312
Average production assets, $m
  186
  193
  202
  211
  220
  230
  241
  252
  263
  276
  289
  303
  317
  332
  348
  365
  383
  402
  421
  442
  463
  486
  510
  535
  562
  590
  619
  649
  682
  715
  751
Working capital, $m
  394
  354
  370
  386
  403
  422
  441
  461
  483
  506
  530
  555
  581
  609
  639
  669
  702
  736
  772
  810
  850
  891
  935
  981
  1,030
  1,081
  1,134
  1,190
  1,250
  1,312
  1,377
Total debt, $m
  268
  325
  385
  448
  515
  585
  660
  738
  821
  908
  1,000
  1,097
  1,199
  1,306
  1,419
  1,538
  1,663
  1,795
  1,933
  2,079
  2,231
  2,392
  2,561
  2,738
  2,925
  3,121
  3,326
  3,543
  3,770
  4,008
  4,259
Total liabilities, $m
  1,305
  1,362
  1,422
  1,485
  1,552
  1,622
  1,697
  1,775
  1,858
  1,945
  2,037
  2,134
  2,236
  2,343
  2,456
  2,575
  2,700
  2,832
  2,970
  3,116
  3,268
  3,429
  3,598
  3,775
  3,962
  4,158
  4,363
  4,580
  4,807
  5,045
  5,296
Total equity, $m
  974
  959
  1,000
  1,045
  1,092
  1,141
  1,194
  1,249
  1,307
  1,369
  1,433
  1,501
  1,573
  1,649
  1,728
  1,812
  1,900
  1,992
  2,090
  2,192
  2,300
  2,413
  2,531
  2,656
  2,787
  2,925
  3,070
  3,222
  3,382
  3,550
  3,726
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,279
  2,321
  2,422
  2,530
  2,644
  2,763
  2,891
  3,024
  3,165
  3,314
  3,470
  3,635
  3,809
  3,992
  4,184
  4,387
  4,600
  4,824
  5,060
  5,308
  5,568
  5,842
  6,129
  6,431
  6,749
  7,083
  7,433
  7,802
  8,189
  8,595
  9,022
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.275
  0.340
  0.380
  0.430
  0.470
  0.510
  0.550
  0.590
  0.630
  0.660
  0.700
  0.730
  0.760
  0.790
  0.820
  0.850
  0.880
  0.900
  0.930
  0.950
  0.970
  0.990
  1.010
  1.030
  1.050
  1.070
  1.080
  1.100
  1.110
  1.130
  1.140
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  57
  55
  59
  63
  68
  73
  78
  84
  89
  96
  102
  175
  182
  190
  198
  206
  215
  224
  234
  244
  255
  266
  278
  290
  303
  317
  331
  346
  362
  379
  396
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  58
  102
  102
  103
  103
  104
  104
  105
  105
  106
  107
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
Funds from operations, $m
  28
  156
  161
  166
  171
  177
  182
  188
  195
  202
  209
  192
  200
  208
  217
  226
  236
  246
  256
  268
  280
  292
  305
  319
  333
  348
  364
  381
  399
  417
  437
Change in working capital, $m
  -56
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
Cash from operations, $m
  84
  142
  146
  150
  154
  158
  163
  168
  173
  179
  185
  166
  173
  180
  187
  195
  203
  212
  220
  230
  240
  250
  261
  273
  285
  297
  311
  325
  340
  355
  371
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
New CAPEX, $m
  -44
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -135
  -18
  -18
  -20
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
Free cash flow, $m
  -51
  124
  127
  130
  133
  136
  140
  144
  148
  152
  157
  137
  142
  148
  153
  159
  166
  172
  179
  187
  194
  203
  211
  220
  230
  240
  250
  261
  273
  285
  297
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  110
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  79
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
  119
  125
  132
  138
  145
  153
  161
  169
  177
  186
  196
  206
  216
  227
  239
  251
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -41
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  90
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  79
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
  119
  125
  132
  138
  145
  153
  161
  169
  177
  186
  196
  206
  216
  227
  239
  251
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  35
  182
  186
  193
  200
  207
  215
  222
  231
  240
  249
  234
  244
  255
  266
  278
  291
  304
  318
  332
  347
  363
  380
  398
  416
  435
  456
  477
  500
  523
  548
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  34
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -168
  -176
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  54
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  197
  144
  148
  153
  157
  162
  167
  173
  178
  184
  166
  173
  180
  187
  195
  203
  211
  220
  230
  240
  250
  261
  273
  285
  298
  311
  325
  340
  355
  372
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  189
  132
  129
  126
  122
  118
  113
  108
  102
  97
  79
  74
  68
  63
  57
  52
  46
  41
  35
  30
  26
  22
  18
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

ABM Industries Incorporated is a provider of integrated facility solutions. The Company operates through five segments: Janitorial, Facility Services, Parking, Building & Energy Solutions, and other. Its Janitorial segment provides a range of cleaning services for commercial office buildings, data centers, educational institutions, government buildings, health facilities, industrial buildings, retail stores, sport event facilities and transportation hubs. Its Facility Services segment provides onsite mechanical engineering and technical services and solutions relating to a range of facilities and infrastructure systems. Its Parking segment provides parking and transportation services. Its Building & Energy Solutions segment provides energy solutions; electrical; heating, ventilation and air conditioning; lighting, and other general maintenance and repair services for clients. Its other segment provides facility solutions to airlines and airports.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ABM Industries (ABM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 41.6
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 2.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 28.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 59.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 63%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 27.5%
Total Debt to Equity 27.5%
Interest Coverage 14
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Return On Total Capital 4.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Return On Equity 5.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Asset Turnover 2.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 10.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
EBITDA Margin 2.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Operating Margin 1.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Net Profit Margin 1.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Effective Tax Rate -19.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.1%
Payout Ratio 64.9%

ABM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ABM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $5145 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ABM Industries. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of ABM Industries. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ABM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ABM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ABM Industries, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ABM Industries.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ABM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 98.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ABM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for ABM Industries.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ABM Industries. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ABM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ABM are equal to 3.6%.

Life of production assets of 18.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ABM Industries operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ABM is equal to 6.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $974 million for ABM Industries - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 55.922 million for ABM Industries is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ABM Industries at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for October 4th   [Oct-04-17 08:21AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for September 25th   [Sep-25-17 08:49AM  Zacks]
▶ ABM Industries misses 3Q profit forecasts   [Sep-06-17 11:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ ABM Industries Is Set for a Clean Breakout   [10:14AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ ABM Industries Completes Acquisition of GCA Services Group   [Sep-01-17 08:59AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ABM UK Expands Significantly With Key Contract Wins   [Aug-17-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Company News for July 13, 2017   [Jul-13-17 10:08AM  Zacks]
▶ ABM Appoints New General Counsel   [Jun-26-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ McLean contractor buys ABM Industries' government services business   [Jun-08-17 02:55PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ ABM Industries beats 2Q profit forecasts   [Jun-07-17 04:39PM  Associated Press]
▶ ABM Announces COO Succession Plan   [04:35PM  Business Wire]
▶ ABM Industries reports 1Q loss   [05:01PM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of ABM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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