Intrinsic value of Atlantica Yield - ABY

Previous Close

$23.52

  Intrinsic Value

$4.57

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-81%

Previous close

$23.52

 
Intrinsic value

$4.57

 
Up/down potential

-81%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ABY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  22.88
  9.20
  8.78
  8.40
  8.06
  7.76
  7.48
  7.23
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.46
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.86
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
Revenue, $m
  972
  1,061
  1,155
  1,252
  1,353
  1,457
  1,566
  1,680
  1,797
  1,920
  2,047
  2,179
  2,317
  2,460
  2,610
  2,765
  2,927
  3,097
  3,273
  3,457
  3,650
  3,851
  4,061
  4,281
  4,511
  4,752
  5,004
  5,267
  5,544
  5,833
  6,136
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  599
  651
  706
  763
  822
  883
  947
  1,014
  1,083
  1,155
  1,229
  1,307
  1,388
  1,472
  1,560
  1,651
  1,746
  1,846
  1,950
  2,059
  2,172
  2,291
  2,415
  2,544
  2,680
  2,822
  2,971
  3,127
  3,290
  3,461
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  569
  599
  651
  706
  763
  822
  883
  947
  1,014
  1,083
  1,155
  1,229
  1,307
  1,388
  1,472
  1,560
  1,651
  1,746
  1,846
  1,950
  2,059
  2,172
  2,291
  2,415
  2,544
  2,680
  2,822
  2,971
  3,127
  3,290
  3,461
Operating income, $m
  402
  463
  503
  546
  590
  635
  683
  732
  784
  837
  893
  950
  1,010
  1,073
  1,138
  1,206
  1,276
  1,350
  1,427
  1,507
  1,591
  1,679
  1,771
  1,867
  1,967
  2,072
  2,182
  2,297
  2,417
  2,543
  2,675
EBITDA, $m
  735
  826
  899
  974
  1,053
  1,134
  1,219
  1,307
  1,399
  1,494
  1,593
  1,696
  1,803
  1,915
  2,031
  2,152
  2,278
  2,410
  2,547
  2,691
  2,840
  2,997
  3,160
  3,332
  3,511
  3,698
  3,894
  4,099
  4,314
  4,539
  4,775
Interest expense (income), $m
  335
  285
  322
  362
  404
  447
  492
  539
  588
  639
  692
  746
  804
  863
  925
  989
  1,056
  1,126
  1,199
  1,275
  1,354
  1,437
  1,524
  1,614
  1,709
  1,808
  1,912
  2,021
  2,134
  2,253
  2,378
Earnings before tax, $m
  3
  178
  182
  184
  186
  188
  191
  193
  195
  198
  201
  204
  207
  210
  213
  217
  220
  224
  228
  233
  237
  242
  247
  252
  258
  263
  270
  276
  283
  290
  297
Tax expense, $m
  1
  48
  49
  50
  50
  51
  51
  52
  53
  53
  54
  55
  56
  57
  58
  59
  60
  61
  62
  63
  64
  65
  67
  68
  70
  71
  73
  75
  76
  78
  80
Net income, $m
  -5
  130
  133
  134
  136
  137
  139
  141
  143
  145
  147
  149
  151
  153
  156
  158
  161
  164
  167
  170
  173
  177
  180
  184
  188
  192
  197
  202
  206
  212
  217

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  823
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  10,298
  10,305
  11,210
  12,152
  13,131
  14,150
  15,208
  16,308
  17,451
  18,639
  19,874
  21,159
  22,496
  23,888
  25,337
  26,847
  28,422
  30,064
  31,778
  33,567
  35,436
  37,389
  39,430
  41,565
  43,798
  46,134
  48,580
  51,141
  53,823
  56,632
  59,576
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  9,475
  10,305
  11,210
  12,152
  13,131
  14,150
  15,208
  16,308
  17,451
  18,639
  19,874
  21,159
  22,496
  23,888
  25,337
  26,847
  28,422
  30,064
  31,778
  33,567
  35,436
  37,389
  39,430
  41,565
  43,798
  46,134
  48,580
  51,141
  53,823
  56,632
  59,576
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
Average production assets, $m
  9,113
  9,952
  10,826
  11,735
  12,681
  13,665
  14,687
  15,749
  16,853
  18,000
  19,193
  20,434
  21,725
  23,069
  24,469
  25,927
  27,448
  29,034
  30,689
  32,417
  34,222
  36,107
  38,079
  40,140
  42,296
  44,553
  46,915
  49,388
  51,978
  54,691
  57,534
Working capital, $m
  -129
  45
  48
  53
  57
  61
  66
  71
  75
  81
  86
  92
  97
  103
  110
  116
  123
  130
  137
  145
  153
  162
  171
  180
  189
  200
  210
  221
  233
  245
  258
Total debt, $m
  5,999
  5,850
  6,580
  7,340
  8,131
  8,953
  9,807
  10,695
  11,617
  12,576
  13,573
  14,609
  15,688
  16,811
  17,981
  19,200
  20,470
  21,796
  23,179
  24,623
  26,131
  27,707
  29,354
  31,077
  32,879
  34,764
  36,738
  38,805
  40,969
  43,236
  45,612
Total liabilities, $m
  8,465
  8,316
  9,046
  9,806
  10,597
  11,419
  12,273
  13,161
  14,083
  15,042
  16,039
  17,075
  18,154
  19,277
  20,447
  21,666
  22,936
  24,262
  25,645
  27,089
  28,597
  30,173
  31,820
  33,543
  35,345
  37,230
  39,204
  41,271
  43,435
  45,702
  48,078
Total equity, $m
  1,833
  1,989
  2,164
  2,345
  2,534
  2,731
  2,935
  3,147
  3,368
  3,597
  3,836
  4,084
  4,342
  4,610
  4,890
  5,182
  5,485
  5,802
  6,133
  6,478
  6,839
  7,216
  7,610
  8,022
  8,453
  8,904
  9,376
  9,870
  10,388
  10,930
  11,498
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  10,298
  10,305
  11,210
  12,151
  13,131
  14,150
  15,208
  16,308
  17,451
  18,639
  19,875
  21,159
  22,496
  23,887
  25,337
  26,848
  28,421
  30,064
  31,778
  33,567
  35,436
  37,389
  39,430
  41,565
  43,798
  46,134
  48,580
  51,141
  53,823
  56,632
  59,576
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.273
  2.940
  3.040
  3.130
  3.210
  3.280
  3.340
  3.400
  3.450
  3.500
  3.540
  3.580
  3.610
  3.650
  3.680
  3.710
  3.730
  3.760
  3.780
  3.800
  3.820
  3.840
  3.860
  3.870
  3.890
  3.900
  3.920
  3.930
  3.940
  3.960
  3.970
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.137
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -5
  130
  133
  134
  136
  137
  139
  141
  143
  145
  147
  149
  151
  153
  156
  158
  161
  164
  167
  170
  173
  177
  180
  184
  188
  192
  197
  202
  206
  212
  217
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  333
  363
  395
  428
  463
  499
  536
  575
  615
  657
  700
  746
  793
  842
  893
  946
  1,002
  1,060
  1,120
  1,183
  1,249
  1,318
  1,390
  1,465
  1,544
  1,626
  1,712
  1,802
  1,897
  1,996
  2,100
Funds from operations, $m
  2
  493
  528
  562
  599
  636
  675
  716
  758
  802
  847
  894
  944
  995
  1,049
  1,104
  1,163
  1,223
  1,287
  1,353
  1,422
  1,494
  1,570
  1,649
  1,732
  1,818
  1,909
  2,004
  2,103
  2,208
  2,317
Change in working capital, $m
  -332
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
Cash from operations, $m
  334
  489
  524
  558
  594
  632
  671
  711
  753
  796
  842
  889
  938
  989
  1,042
  1,098
  1,156
  1,216
  1,279
  1,345
  1,414
  1,486
  1,561
  1,640
  1,722
  1,808
  1,898
  1,993
  2,092
  2,196
  2,304
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -333
  -363
  -395
  -428
  -463
  -499
  -536
  -575
  -615
  -657
  -700
  -746
  -793
  -842
  -893
  -946
  -1,002
  -1,060
  -1,120
  -1,183
  -1,249
  -1,318
  -1,390
  -1,465
  -1,544
  -1,626
  -1,712
  -1,802
  -1,897
  -1,996
New CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -839
  -874
  -910
  -946
  -984
  -1,022
  -1,062
  -1,104
  -1,147
  -1,193
  -1,241
  -1,291
  -1,344
  -1,400
  -1,459
  -1,521
  -1,586
  -1,655
  -1,728
  -1,805
  -1,886
  -1,971
  -2,061
  -2,156
  -2,257
  -2,362
  -2,473
  -2,590
  -2,713
  -2,843
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -26
  -1,172
  -1,237
  -1,305
  -1,374
  -1,447
  -1,521
  -1,598
  -1,679
  -1,762
  -1,850
  -1,941
  -2,037
  -2,137
  -2,242
  -2,352
  -2,467
  -2,588
  -2,715
  -2,848
  -2,988
  -3,135
  -3,289
  -3,451
  -3,621
  -3,801
  -3,988
  -4,185
  -4,392
  -4,610
  -4,839
Free cash flow, $m
  308
  -682
  -713
  -746
  -780
  -815
  -850
  -887
  -926
  -966
  -1,008
  -1,052
  -1,099
  -1,148
  -1,199
  -1,254
  -1,311
  -1,372
  -1,435
  -1,503
  -1,574
  -1,649
  -1,728
  -1,811
  -1,899
  -1,992
  -2,090
  -2,192
  -2,301
  -2,415
  -2,535
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -172
  674
  730
  760
  791
  822
  854
  888
  922
  959
  997
  1,037
  1,079
  1,123
  1,170
  1,219
  1,271
  1,325
  1,383
  1,444
  1,508
  1,576
  1,647
  1,723
  1,802
  1,886
  1,974
  2,067
  2,164
  2,267
  2,376
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  26
  42
  48
  53
  59
  65
  71
  78
  85
  92
  99
  107
  115
  124
  133
  143
  153
  164
  176
  188
  200
  214
  228
  243
  259
  275
  293
  311
  331
  351
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -190
  700
  772
  808
  844
  881
  919
  959
  1,000
  1,044
  1,089
  1,136
  1,186
  1,238
  1,294
  1,352
  1,414
  1,478
  1,547
  1,620
  1,696
  1,776
  1,861
  1,951
  2,045
  2,145
  2,249
  2,360
  2,475
  2,598
  2,727
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  116
  18
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  77
  81
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  146
  152
  159
  167
  175
  183
  192
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  50
  -156
  -175
  -182
  -189
  -197
  -204
  -212
  -221
  -229
  -238
  -248
  -258
  -269
  -280
  -291
  -304
  -317
  -331
  -345
  -361
  -377
  -394
  -412
  -431
  -451
  -472
  -494
  -518
  -542
  -568
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -138
  -116
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -164
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -193
  -201
  -210
  -219
  -229
  -239
  -250
  -261
  -273
  -285
  -299
  -313
  -327
  -343
  -359
  -376
Discount rate, %
 
  10.20
  10.71
  11.25
  11.81
  12.40
  13.02
  13.67
  14.35
  15.07
  15.82
  16.61
  17.45
  18.32
  19.23
  20.20
  21.21
  22.27
  23.38
  24.55
  25.77
  27.06
  28.42
  29.84
  31.33
  32.90
  34.54
  36.27
  38.08
  39.99
  41.98
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -125
  -94
  -87
  -80
  -73
  -65
  -57
  -50
  -43
  -36
  -30
  -25
  -20
  -16
  -12
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  98.9
  97.3
  95.7
  94.0
  92.3
  90.7
  89.0
  87.3
  85.6
  84.0
  82.3
  80.6
  79.0
  77.4
  75.8
  74.2
  72.6
  71.1
  69.5
  68.0
  66.5
  65.0
  63.5
  62.0
  60.6
  59.2
  57.8
  56.4
  55.0
  53.7

Atlantica Yield plc, formerly Abengoa Yield plc, is a total return company. The Company owns, manages, and acquires renewable energy, conventional power, electric transmission lines and water assets, focused on North America (the United States and Mexico), South America (Peru, Chile, Brazil and Uruguay) and Europe, Middle East and Africa (Spain, Algeria and South Africa). Its segments include North America, South America and EMEA. It operates in business sectors, including renewable energy, conventional power, electric transmission lines and water. As of December 31, 2016, it owned or had interests in 21 assets, comprising 1,442 megawatt (MW) of renewable energy generation, 300 MW of conventional power generation, 1,099 miles of electric transmission lines, as well as an exchangeable preferred equity investment in Abengoa Concessoes Brasil Holding S.A., (ACBH). The renewable energy sector includes its activities related to the production electricity from solar power and wind plants.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Atlantica Yield (ABY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -471.4
Price to Sales 2.4
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 22.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -94.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -56.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 273.1%
Total Debt to Equity 327.3%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Return On Total Capital -0.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.2%
Return On Equity -0.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.6%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 92.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 91.9%
EBITDA Margin 69%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 62.8%
Operating Margin 41.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 44.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.5%
Net Profit Margin -0.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -11.9%
Effective Tax Rate 33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Payout Ratio -720%

ABY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ABY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $972 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Atlantica Yield. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Atlantica Yield. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ABY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.2%, whose default value for ABY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Atlantica Yield, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Atlantica Yield.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ABY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 56.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ABY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.5% for Atlantica Yield.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Atlantica Yield. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ABY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ABY are equal to 937.6%.

Life of production assets of 27.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Atlantica Yield operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ABY is equal to 4.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1833 million for Atlantica Yield - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 100.184 million for Atlantica Yield is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Atlantica Yield at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.4 billion.

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Financial statements of ABY
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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