Intrinsic value of American Campus Communities - ACC

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$48.47

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as ACC.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ACC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.38
  2.60
  2.84
  3.06
  3.25
  3.43
  3.58
  3.72
  3.85
  3.97
  4.07
  4.16
  4.25
  4.32
  4.39
  4.45
  4.51
  4.56
  4.60
  4.64
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.76
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.89
Revenue, $m
  786
  773
  795
  819
  845
  874
  906
  939
  976
  1,014
  1,056
  1,100
  1,146
  1,196
  1,248
  1,304
  1,363
  1,425
  1,490
  1,559
  1,632
  1,709
  1,790
  1,875
  1,965
  2,060
  2,159
  2,264
  2,374
  2,489
  2,611
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  610
  627
  646
  667
  690
  715
  741
  770
  800
  833
  868
  904
  943
  985
  1,029
  1,075
  1,124
  1,176
  1,230
  1,288
  1,348
  1,412
  1,480
  1,550
  1,625
  1,703
  1,786
  1,873
  1,964
  2,060
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  626
  610
  627
  646
  667
  690
  715
  741
  770
  800
  833
  868
  904
  943
  985
  1,029
  1,075
  1,124
  1,176
  1,230
  1,288
  1,348
  1,412
  1,480
  1,550
  1,625
  1,703
  1,786
  1,873
  1,964
  2,060
Operating income, $m
  160
  163
  168
  173
  178
  184
  191
  198
  206
  214
  223
  232
  242
  252
  263
  275
  288
  301
  314
  329
  344
  361
  378
  396
  415
  435
  456
  478
  501
  525
  551
EBITDA, $m
  371
  378
  388
  400
  413
  428
  443
  459
  477
  496
  516
  538
  560
  585
  610
  638
  666
  697
  729
  762
  798
  836
  875
  917
  961
  1,007
  1,056
  1,107
  1,161
  1,217
  1,277
Interest expense (income), $m
  93
  103
  106
  109
  113
  117
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  194
  204
  213
  224
  235
  246
  258
  271
  285
  299
  314
  329
  346
  363
Earnings before tax, $m
  102
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  171
  179
  188
Tax expense, $m
  1
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
Net income, $m
  99
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  74
  78
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  109
  114
  120
  125
  131
  137

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  22
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,866
  6,132
  6,306
  6,498
  6,710
  6,939
  7,188
  7,456
  7,743
  8,050
  8,378
  8,727
  9,097
  9,490
  9,907
  10,348
  10,814
  11,307
  11,827
  12,376
  12,954
  13,564
  14,207
  14,884
  15,596
  16,346
  17,135
  17,965
  18,839
  19,757
  20,722
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,844
  6,132
  6,306
  6,498
  6,710
  6,939
  7,188
  7,456
  7,743
  8,050
  8,378
  8,727
  9,097
  9,490
  9,907
  10,348
  10,814
  11,307
  11,827
  12,376
  12,954
  13,564
  14,207
  14,884
  15,596
  16,346
  17,135
  17,965
  18,839
  19,757
  20,722
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.134
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
  0.126
Average production assets, $m
  5,563
  5,605
  5,764
  5,940
  6,133
  6,344
  6,571
  6,816
  7,078
  7,359
  7,658
  7,977
  8,316
  8,675
  9,056
  9,459
  9,886
  10,336
  10,811
  11,313
  11,842
  12,400
  12,987
  13,606
  14,257
  14,943
  15,664
  16,423
  17,221
  18,060
  18,943
Working capital, $m
  0
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
Total debt, $m
  2,125
  3,023
  3,117
  3,221
  3,335
  3,459
  3,594
  3,738
  3,893
  4,059
  4,236
  4,424
  4,625
  4,837
  5,062
  5,300
  5,552
  5,818
  6,099
  6,395
  6,707
  7,037
  7,384
  7,749
  8,134
  8,539
  8,965
  9,413
  9,885
  10,381
  10,902
Total liabilities, $m
  2,421
  3,311
  3,405
  3,509
  3,623
  3,747
  3,882
  4,026
  4,181
  4,347
  4,524
  4,712
  4,913
  5,125
  5,350
  5,588
  5,840
  6,106
  6,387
  6,683
  6,995
  7,325
  7,672
  8,037
  8,422
  8,827
  9,253
  9,701
  10,173
  10,669
  11,190
Total equity, $m
  3,445
  2,821
  2,901
  2,989
  3,086
  3,192
  3,307
  3,430
  3,562
  3,703
  3,854
  4,014
  4,185
  4,366
  4,557
  4,760
  4,975
  5,201
  5,440
  5,693
  5,959
  6,240
  6,535
  6,846
  7,174
  7,519
  7,882
  8,264
  8,666
  9,088
  9,532
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,866
  6,132
  6,306
  6,498
  6,709
  6,939
  7,189
  7,456
  7,743
  8,050
  8,378
  8,726
  9,098
  9,491
  9,907
  10,348
  10,815
  11,307
  11,827
  12,376
  12,954
  13,565
  14,207
  14,883
  15,596
  16,346
  17,135
  17,965
  18,839
  19,757
  20,722
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.617
  1.070
  1.070
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.090
  1.090
  1.090
  1.100
  1.100
  1.100
  1.110
  1.110
  1.110
  1.110
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.586
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  99
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  74
  78
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  109
  114
  120
  125
  131
  137
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  211
  215
  221
  228
  235
  243
  252
  261
  271
  282
  293
  306
  319
  332
  347
  362
  379
  396
  414
  433
  454
  475
  498
  521
  546
  573
  600
  629
  660
  692
  726
Funds from operations, $m
  303
  258
  266
  274
  283
  293
  303
  314
  326
  339
  352
  367
  382
  398
  416
  434
  453
  474
  495
  518
  542
  567
  594
  621
  651
  682
  715
  749
  785
  823
  863
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  308
  319
  266
  275
  284
  293
  304
  315
  327
  340
  353
  368
  383
  400
  417
  435
  455
  475
  497
  519
  543
  569
  595
  623
  653
  684
  717
  751
  787
  826
  866
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -209
  -215
  -221
  -228
  -235
  -243
  -252
  -261
  -271
  -282
  -293
  -306
  -319
  -332
  -347
  -362
  -379
  -396
  -414
  -433
  -454
  -475
  -498
  -521
  -546
  -573
  -600
  -629
  -660
  -692
New CAPEX, $m
  -596
  -142
  -159
  -176
  -193
  -210
  -227
  -245
  -263
  -281
  -300
  -319
  -339
  -359
  -381
  -403
  -426
  -450
  -475
  -502
  -529
  -558
  -587
  -619
  -651
  -686
  -721
  -759
  -798
  -839
  -883
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -32
  -351
  -374
  -397
  -421
  -445
  -470
  -497
  -524
  -552
  -582
  -612
  -645
  -678
  -713
  -750
  -788
  -829
  -871
  -916
  -962
  -1,012
  -1,062
  -1,117
  -1,172
  -1,232
  -1,294
  -1,359
  -1,427
  -1,499
  -1,575
Free cash flow, $m
  276
  -32
  -107
  -122
  -137
  -152
  -167
  -182
  -197
  -212
  -228
  -244
  -261
  -278
  -296
  -315
  -334
  -354
  -375
  -396
  -419
  -443
  -467
  -493
  -520
  -548
  -577
  -608
  -640
  -674
  -709
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -805
  75
  94
  104
  114
  124
  134
  145
  155
  166
  177
  188
  200
  212
  225
  238
  252
  266
  281
  296
  312
  329
  347
  365
  385
  405
  426
  448
  472
  496
  521
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  816
  8
  94
  107
  120
  134
  147
  160
  174
  188
  202
  217
  232
  247
  263
  280
  297
  315
  333
  353
  373
  394
  416
  439
  463
  488
  514
  541
  570
  600
  632
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -52
  83
  188
  211
  234
  258
  281
  305
  329
  354
  379
  405
  432
  459
  488
  518
  549
  581
  614
  649
  685
  723
  763
  804
  848
  893
  940
  989
  1,042
  1,096
  1,153
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  224
  43
  -13
  -18
  -23
  -28
  -32
  -37
  -42
  -47
  -51
  -56
  -61
  -66
  -71
  -77
  -82
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -107
  -113
  -120
  -127
  -135
  -143
  -151
  -160
  -168
  -178
  -188
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -675
  -68
  -80
  -89
  -97
  -106
  -114
  -123
  -132
  -141
  -151
  -160
  -170
  -181
  -192
  -203
  -214
  -227
  -239
  -252
  -266
  -281
  -296
  -311
  -328
  -345
  -363
  -382
  -402
  -422
  -444
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  17
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  9.00
  9.45
  9.92
  10.42
  10.94
  11.49
  12.06
  12.66
  13.30
  13.96
  14.66
  15.39
  16.16
  16.97
  17.82
  18.71
  19.65
  20.63
  21.66
  22.74
  23.88
  25.07
  26.33
  27.64
  29.03
  30.48
  32.00
  33.60
  35.28
  37.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.9
  98.5
  96.9
  95.2
  93.5
  91.6
  89.8
  87.8
  85.9
  83.9
  81.9
  79.9
  77.9
  75.9
  73.9
  72.0
  70.0
  68.1
  66.3
  64.4
  62.6
  60.9
  59.1
  57.5
  55.8
  54.2
  52.6
  51.1
  49.6
  48.1

American Campus Communities, Inc. is a real estate investment trust. The firm invests in the real estate markets of the United States. It primarily engages in developing, owning, and managing high-quality student housing communities. The firm diversifies its functions across acquisition, design, financing, development, construction management, leasing and management of student housing properties. American Campus Communities, Inc. was formed in 1993 and is based in Austin, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  American Campus Communities (ACC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 64.7
Price to Sales 8.2
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 20.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -22.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -10.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 61.7%
Total Debt to Equity 61.7%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Return On Total Capital 1.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Return On Equity 3.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 52.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 51.6%
EBITDA Margin 51.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 52.7%
Operating Margin 20.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 13%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.5%
Net Profit Margin 12.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Effective Tax Rate 1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Payout Ratio 221.2%

ACC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ACC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $753 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by American Campus Communities. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of American Campus Communities. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ACC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9%, whose default value for ACC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of American Campus Communities, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of American Campus Communities.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ACC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 78.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ACC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for American Campus Communities.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for American Campus Communities. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ACC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ACC are equal to 725.5%.

Life of production assets of 26.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in American Campus Communities operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ACC is equal to -2.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2770 million for American Campus Communities - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 131.485 million for American Campus Communities is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of American Campus Communities at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.4 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ American Campus Communities Provides Interim Leasing Update   [Jun-05-17 04:01PM  Business Wire]
▶ American Campus Communities reports 1Q results   [Apr-24-17 04:35PM  Associated Press]
▶ This Company is Trying to Change College Living   [Apr-06-17 05:15PM  Barrons.com]
▶ 5 Top Dividend Stocks in Residential REITs   [Mar-14-17 08:27AM  Motley Fool]
▶ 5 Top Dividend Stocks in Residential REITs   [08:27AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ American Campus Communities Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Jan-25-17 05:51PM  Business Wire]
▶ Retirement Investing 2017: 3 Stocks to Put on Your Radar   [Jan-21-17 03:58PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Hate Risk? You'll Love These 2 Stocks   [Nov-05-16 08:26AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ American Campus Communities Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Nov-03-16 09:11AM  Business Wire]
▶ Trending Stocks to Buy on the Pullback (BVN, ACC)   [Oct-11-16 10:29AM  at Investopedia]
▶ American Campus Communities Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Aug-03-16 04:01PM  Business Wire]
Stock chart of ACC Financial statements of ACC Annual reports of ACC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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