Intrinsic value of American Campus Communities - ACC

Previous Close

$43.87

  Intrinsic Value

$6.32

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-86%

  Value-price divergence*

+30%

Previous close

$43.87

 
Intrinsic value

$6.32

 
Up/down potential

-86%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+30%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as ACC.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ACC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.38
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  786
  802
  820
  841
  865
  891
  920
  951
  985
  1,022
  1,061
  1,103
  1,148
  1,195
  1,246
  1,300
  1,357
  1,417
  1,481
  1,548
  1,619
  1,694
  1,773
  1,857
  1,945
  2,037
  2,135
  2,237
  2,345
  2,459
  2,578
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  637
  651
  668
  687
  708
  730
  755
  782
  811
  842
  876
  911
  949
  989
  1,032
  1,077
  1,125
  1,176
  1,229
  1,286
  1,345
  1,408
  1,474
  1,544
  1,618
  1,695
  1,776
  1,862
  1,952
  2,047
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  626
  637
  651
  668
  687
  708
  730
  755
  782
  811
  842
  876
  911
  949
  989
  1,032
  1,077
  1,125
  1,176
  1,229
  1,286
  1,345
  1,408
  1,474
  1,544
  1,618
  1,695
  1,776
  1,862
  1,952
  2,047
Operating income, $m
  160
  165
  169
  173
  178
  184
  189
  196
  203
  210
  219
  227
  236
  246
  257
  268
  279
  292
  305
  319
  334
  349
  365
  382
  401
  420
  440
  461
  483
  507
  531
EBITDA, $m
  371
  380
  389
  399
  410
  422
  436
  451
  467
  484
  503
  523
  544
  567
  591
  616
  643
  672
  702
  734
  768
  803
  841
  880
  922
  966
  1,012
  1,061
  1,112
  1,166
  1,222
Interest expense (income), $m
  93
  79
  81
  83
  85
  88
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  110
  115
  120
  126
  131
  138
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  183
  192
  201
  211
  222
  233
  245
  257
  270
Earnings before tax, $m
  102
  87
  88
  90
  93
  96
  99
  102
  105
  109
  113
  117
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  148
  154
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  199
  208
  218
  228
  238
  249
  261
Tax expense, $m
  1
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
Net income, $m
  99
  63
  64
  66
  68
  70
  72
  74
  77
  79
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  99
  104
  108
  112
  117
  122
  128
  133
  139
  145
  152
  159
  166
  174
  182
  191

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  22
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,866
  5,983
  6,121
  6,278
  6,454
  6,650
  6,865
  7,099
  7,352
  7,624
  7,917
  8,230
  8,564
  8,920
  9,298
  9,699
  10,124
  10,574
  11,049
  11,552
  12,083
  12,643
  13,234
  13,856
  14,512
  15,203
  15,931
  16,696
  17,502
  18,350
  19,241
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,844
  5,983
  6,121
  6,278
  6,454
  6,650
  6,865
  7,099
  7,352
  7,624
  7,917
  8,230
  8,564
  8,920
  9,298
  9,699
  10,124
  10,574
  11,049
  11,552
  12,083
  12,643
  13,234
  13,856
  14,512
  15,203
  15,931
  16,696
  17,502
  18,350
  19,241
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
Average production assets, $m
  5,563
  5,675
  5,805
  5,954
  6,122
  6,307
  6,511
  6,733
  6,973
  7,231
  7,509
  7,806
  8,123
  8,460
  8,818
  9,199
  9,602
  10,029
  10,480
  10,957
  11,460
  11,991
  12,552
  13,142
  13,764
  14,419
  15,109
  15,836
  16,600
  17,404
  18,249
Working capital, $m
  0
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
Total debt, $m
  2,125
  2,181
  2,238
  2,303
  2,376
  2,457
  2,546
  2,643
  2,748
  2,860
  2,982
  3,111
  3,250
  3,397
  3,553
  3,719
  3,895
  4,081
  4,278
  4,487
  4,706
  4,938
  5,183
  5,441
  5,712
  5,998
  6,299
  6,616
  6,950
  7,301
  7,670
Total liabilities, $m
  2,421
  2,477
  2,534
  2,599
  2,672
  2,753
  2,842
  2,939
  3,044
  3,156
  3,278
  3,407
  3,546
  3,693
  3,849
  4,015
  4,191
  4,377
  4,574
  4,783
  5,002
  5,234
  5,479
  5,737
  6,008
  6,294
  6,595
  6,912
  7,246
  7,597
  7,966
Total equity, $m
  3,445
  3,506
  3,587
  3,679
  3,782
  3,897
  4,023
  4,160
  4,308
  4,468
  4,639
  4,823
  5,019
  5,227
  5,448
  5,683
  5,933
  6,196
  6,475
  6,770
  7,081
  7,409
  7,755
  8,120
  8,504
  8,909
  9,335
  9,784
  10,256
  10,753
  11,275
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,866
  5,983
  6,121
  6,278
  6,454
  6,650
  6,865
  7,099
  7,352
  7,624
  7,917
  8,230
  8,565
  8,920
  9,297
  9,698
  10,124
  10,573
  11,049
  11,553
  12,083
  12,643
  13,234
  13,857
  14,512
  15,203
  15,930
  16,696
  17,502
  18,350
  19,241
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.617
  0.620
  0.620
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  99
  63
  64
  66
  68
  70
  72
  74
  77
  79
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  99
  104
  108
  112
  117
  122
  128
  133
  139
  145
  152
  159
  166
  174
  182
  191
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  211
  215
  220
  226
  232
  239
  247
  255
  264
  274
  284
  296
  308
  320
  334
  348
  364
  380
  397
  415
  434
  454
  475
  498
  521
  546
  572
  600
  629
  659
  691
Funds from operations, $m
  303
  278
  284
  292
  300
  309
  319
  329
  341
  353
  367
  381
  396
  412
  430
  448
  467
  488
  509
  532
  556
  582
  609
  637
  667
  698
  731
  766
  803
  841
  882
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  308
  279
  285
  292
  300
  309
  319
  330
  342
  354
  368
  382
  397
  414
  431
  449
  469
  489
  511
  534
  558
  584
  611
  639
  669
  701
  734
  769
  806
  844
  885
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -211
  -215
  -220
  -226
  -232
  -239
  -247
  -255
  -264
  -274
  -284
  -296
  -308
  -320
  -334
  -348
  -364
  -380
  -397
  -415
  -434
  -454
  -475
  -498
  -521
  -546
  -572
  -600
  -629
  -659
New CAPEX, $m
  -596
  -112
  -131
  -149
  -167
  -186
  -204
  -222
  -240
  -259
  -278
  -297
  -317
  -337
  -358
  -380
  -403
  -427
  -451
  -477
  -503
  -531
  -560
  -590
  -622
  -655
  -690
  -726
  -764
  -804
  -846
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -32
  -323
  -346
  -369
  -393
  -418
  -443
  -469
  -495
  -523
  -552
  -581
  -613
  -645
  -678
  -714
  -751
  -791
  -831
  -874
  -918
  -965
  -1,014
  -1,065
  -1,120
  -1,176
  -1,236
  -1,298
  -1,364
  -1,433
  -1,505
Free cash flow, $m
  276
  -44
  -61
  -77
  -93
  -108
  -123
  -138
  -153
  -168
  -184
  -199
  -215
  -231
  -248
  -265
  -283
  -301
  -320
  -340
  -360
  -381
  -403
  -427
  -451
  -476
  -502
  -530
  -558
  -588
  -620
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -805
  56
  57
  65
  73
  81
  89
  97
  105
  113
  121
  130
  138
  147
  156
  166
  176
  186
  197
  208
  220
  232
  245
  258
  272
  286
  301
  317
  334
  351
  369
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  816
  20
  16
  26
  36
  45
  54
  63
  72
  80
  89
  98
  107
  116
  126
  136
  146
  156
  166
  177
  189
  201
  213
  226
  239
  253
  267
  282
  298
  315
  332
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -52
  76
  73
  91
  109
  126
  143
  160
  177
  193
  210
  228
  245
  263
  282
  302
  322
  342
  363
  385
  409
  433
  458
  484
  511
  539
  568
  599
  632
  666
  701
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  224
  32
  13
  14
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  81
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -675
  -83
  -81
  -92
  -103
  -115
  -126
  -137
  -148
  -160
  -171
  -183
  -196
  -208
  -221
  -235
  -249
  -264
  -279
  -295
  -311
  -328
  -346
  -365
  -384
  -405
  -426
  -449
  -472
  -497
  -522
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  22
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -29
  -68
  -78
  -87
  -97
  -106
  -116
  -125
  -135
  -145
  -155
  -165
  -176
  -187
  -198
  -210
  -223
  -235
  -249
  -263
  -277
  -292
  -308
  -325
  -342
  -360
  -379
  -399
  -419
  -441
Discount rate, %
 
  7.40
  7.77
  8.16
  8.57
  8.99
  9.44
  9.92
  10.41
  10.93
  11.48
  12.05
  12.66
  13.29
  13.95
  14.65
  15.38
  16.15
  16.96
  17.81
  18.70
  19.63
  20.62
  21.65
  22.73
  23.87
  25.06
  26.31
  27.63
  29.01
  30.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -27
  -59
  -62
  -63
  -63
  -62
  -60
  -57
  -53
  -49
  -44
  -40
  -35
  -30
  -26
  -21
  -17
  -14
  -11
  -9
  -6
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.7
  99.4
  99.0
  98.4
  97.8
  97.0
  96.1
  95.2
  94.2
  93.1
  92.0
  90.8
  89.6
  88.4
  87.1
  85.9
  84.6
  83.3
  82.0
  80.7
  79.4
  78.1
  76.8
  75.6
  74.3
  73.0
  71.8
  70.5
  69.3
  68.1

American Campus Communities, Inc. is a self-managed and self-administered equity real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company's segments include Wholly-Owned Properties, On-Campus Participating Properties, Development Services, and Property Management Services. It is engaged in the acquisition, design, financing, development, construction management, leasing and management of student housing properties. The Wholly-Owned Properties segment consists of off-campus properties, which are located in close proximity to the school campus. The On-Campus Participating Properties segment includes on-campus properties that are operated under long-term ground/facility leases with three university systems. The Development Services segment consists of development and construction management services that it provides through one of its taxable REIT subsidiaries for third-party owners. The Property Management Services segment includes revenues generated from third-party management contracts.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  American Campus Communities (ACC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 58.6
Price to Sales 7.4
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -20.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -10.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 61.7%
Total Debt to Equity 61.7%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Return On Total Capital 1.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Return On Equity 3.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 52.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 51.6%
EBITDA Margin 51.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 52.7%
Operating Margin 20.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 13%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.5%
Net Profit Margin 12.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Effective Tax Rate 1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Payout Ratio 221.2%

ACC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ACC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $786 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by American Campus Communities. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of American Campus Communities. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ACC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.4%, whose default value for ACC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of American Campus Communities, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of American Campus Communities.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ACC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 79.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ACC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.7% for American Campus Communities.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for American Campus Communities. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ACC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ACC are equal to 707.8%.

Life of production assets of 26.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in American Campus Communities operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ACC is equal to -2.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3445 million for American Campus Communities - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 136.258 million for American Campus Communities is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of American Campus Communities at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Why American Campus Communities Inc (ACC) Could Be A Buy   [Sep-22-17 05:41PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ American Campus Communities Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Aug-02-17 07:03PM  Business Wire]
▶ American Campus Communities reports 2Q results   [Jul-24-17 09:15PM  Associated Press]
▶ American Campus Communities Provides Interim Leasing Update   [Jun-05-17 04:01PM  Business Wire]
▶ American Campus Communities reports 1Q results   [Apr-24-17 04:35PM  Associated Press]
▶ This Company is Trying to Change College Living   [Apr-06-17 05:15PM  Barrons.com]
▶ 5 Top Dividend Stocks in Residential REITs   [Mar-14-17 08:27AM  Motley Fool]
▶ 5 Top Dividend Stocks in Residential REITs   [08:27AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ American Campus Communities Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Jan-25-17 05:51PM  Business Wire]
▶ Retirement Investing 2017: 3 Stocks to Put on Your Radar   [Jan-21-17 03:58PM  at Motley Fool]
Financial statements of ACC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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