Intrinsic value of ACCO Brands - ACCO

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$11.45

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ACCO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.11
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
Revenue, $m
  1,557
  1,655
  1,757
  1,864
  1,974
  2,090
  2,211
  2,336
  2,468
  2,605
  2,748
  2,898
  3,055
  3,219
  3,390
  3,570
  3,758
  3,955
  4,161
  4,377
  4,604
  4,841
  5,090
  5,351
  5,625
  5,912
  6,213
  6,529
  6,861
  7,208
  7,573
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,473
  1,560
  1,651
  1,745
  1,844
  1,947
  2,055
  2,167
  2,284
  2,406
  2,476
  2,610
  2,750
  2,896
  3,050
  3,210
  3,379
  3,555
  3,740
  3,933
  4,136
  4,349
  4,572
  4,806
  5,051
  5,308
  5,578
  5,861
  6,158
  6,470
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,390
  1,473
  1,560
  1,651
  1,745
  1,844
  1,947
  2,055
  2,167
  2,284
  2,406
  2,476
  2,610
  2,750
  2,896
  3,050
  3,210
  3,379
  3,555
  3,740
  3,933
  4,136
  4,349
  4,572
  4,806
  5,051
  5,308
  5,578
  5,861
  6,158
  6,470
Operating income, $m
  167
  182
  197
  213
  229
  246
  263
  282
  301
  321
  342
  422
  445
  469
  494
  520
  548
  576
  606
  638
  671
  705
  742
  780
  820
  861
  905
  951
  1,000
  1,050
  1,103
EBITDA, $m
  219
  273
  290
  308
  326
  345
  365
  386
  407
  430
  454
  478
  504
  531
  560
  589
  620
  653
  687
  723
  760
  799
  840
  883
  928
  976
  1,026
  1,078
  1,132
  1,190
  1,250
Interest expense (income), $m
  50
  46
  52
  58
  65
  71
  78
  85
  93
  101
  109
  118
  127
  136
  146
  156
  167
  178
  190
  202
  215
  229
  243
  258
  273
  290
  307
  325
  344
  364
  385
Earnings before tax, $m
  125
  136
  145
  155
  164
  175
  185
  196
  208
  220
  233
  305
  319
  333
  348
  364
  381
  398
  416
  436
  456
  477
  499
  522
  546
  572
  598
  626
  656
  687
  719
Tax expense, $m
  29
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  112
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  162
  169
  177
  185
  194
Net income, $m
  96
  99
  106
  113
  120
  127
  135
  143
  152
  161
  170
  222
  233
  243
  254
  266
  278
  291
  304
  318
  333
  348
  364
  381
  399
  417
  437
  457
  479
  501
  525

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  43
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,065
  2,149
  2,282
  2,420
  2,564
  2,714
  2,871
  3,034
  3,205
  3,383
  3,569
  3,764
  3,967
  4,180
  4,403
  4,636
  4,881
  5,136
  5,404
  5,685
  5,979
  6,288
  6,611
  6,950
  7,305
  7,678
  8,069
  8,480
  8,910
  9,362
  9,835
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,022
  2,149
  2,282
  2,420
  2,564
  2,714
  2,871
  3,034
  3,205
  3,383
  3,569
  3,764
  3,967
  4,180
  4,403
  4,636
  4,881
  5,136
  5,404
  5,685
  5,979
  6,288
  6,611
  6,950
  7,305
  7,678
  8,069
  8,480
  8,910
  9,362
  9,835
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
Average production assets, $m
  747
  794
  843
  895
  948
  1,003
  1,061
  1,121
  1,184
  1,250
  1,319
  1,391
  1,466
  1,545
  1,627
  1,714
  1,804
  1,898
  1,997
  2,101
  2,210
  2,324
  2,443
  2,569
  2,700
  2,838
  2,982
  3,134
  3,293
  3,460
  3,635
Working capital, $m
  265
  310
  329
  348
  369
  391
  413
  437
  461
  487
  514
  542
  571
  602
  634
  668
  703
  740
  778
  819
  861
  905
  952
  1,001
  1,052
  1,106
  1,162
  1,221
  1,283
  1,348
  1,416
Total debt, $m
  696
  735
  821
  911
  1,004
  1,102
  1,203
  1,309
  1,420
  1,536
  1,656
  1,783
  1,915
  2,053
  2,198
  2,349
  2,507
  2,673
  2,847
  3,030
  3,221
  3,421
  3,631
  3,851
  4,081
  4,323
  4,577
  4,843
  5,123
  5,416
  5,723
Total liabilities, $m
  1,356
  1,395
  1,481
  1,571
  1,664
  1,762
  1,863
  1,969
  2,080
  2,196
  2,316
  2,443
  2,575
  2,713
  2,858
  3,009
  3,167
  3,333
  3,507
  3,690
  3,881
  4,081
  4,291
  4,511
  4,741
  4,983
  5,237
  5,503
  5,783
  6,076
  6,383
Total equity, $m
  709
  754
  801
  849
  900
  953
  1,008
  1,065
  1,125
  1,187
  1,253
  1,321
  1,393
  1,467
  1,545
  1,627
  1,713
  1,803
  1,897
  1,995
  2,099
  2,207
  2,320
  2,439
  2,564
  2,695
  2,832
  2,976
  3,127
  3,286
  3,452
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,065
  2,149
  2,282
  2,420
  2,564
  2,715
  2,871
  3,034
  3,205
  3,383
  3,569
  3,764
  3,968
  4,180
  4,403
  4,636
  4,880
  5,136
  5,404
  5,685
  5,980
  6,288
  6,611
  6,950
  7,305
  7,678
  8,069
  8,479
  8,910
  9,362
  9,835
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.982
  0.970
  1.030
  1.070
  1.120
  1.160
  1.190
  1.230
  1.260
  1.290
  1.320
  1.350
  1.380
  1.400
  1.420
  1.440
  1.460
  1.480
  1.500
  1.520
  1.530
  1.550
  1.560
  1.580
  1.590
  1.600
  1.620
  1.630
  1.640
  1.650
  1.660
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  96
  99
  106
  113
  120
  127
  135
  143
  152
  161
  170
  222
  233
  243
  254
  266
  278
  291
  304
  318
  333
  348
  364
  381
  399
  417
  437
  457
  479
  501
  525
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  52
  91
  93
  95
  97
  99
  101
  104
  106
  109
  112
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  133
  140
  147
Funds from operations, $m
  156
  190
  199
  208
  217
  227
  237
  247
  258
  270
  282
  278
  292
  305
  320
  335
  351
  367
  385
  403
  422
  442
  463
  485
  508
  532
  557
  584
  611
  641
  671
Change in working capital, $m
  -10
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
Cash from operations, $m
  166
  189
  180
  188
  196
  205
  214
  224
  234
  244
  255
  250
  262
  275
  288
  301
  316
  330
  346
  362
  379
  397
  416
  436
  456
  478
  501
  525
  550
  576
  603
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
New CAPEX, $m
  -19
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -175
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -106
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -144
  -152
  -159
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -194
  -203
  -214
  -224
  -235
  -247
  -259
  -272
  -285
  -300
  -315
Free cash flow, $m
  60
  111
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  125
  130
  136
  125
  131
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
  170
  178
  186
  194
  203
  212
  221
  231
  242
  253
  264
  276
  289
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -46
  82
  86
  90
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  145
  151
  159
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  210
  220
  231
  242
  254
  266
  279
  293
  308
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -75
  82
  86
  90
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  145
  151
  159
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  210
  220
  231
  242
  254
  266
  279
  293
  308
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -13
  193
  185
  192
  200
  209
  217
  227
  236
  246
  257
  252
  263
  275
  288
  301
  315
  329
  344
  360
  377
  394
  413
  432
  452
  473
  496
  519
  543
  569
  596
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -128
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  148
  138
  144
  150
  156
  162
  169
  176
  184
  191
  183
  192
  200
  209
  219
  229
  239
  250
  262
  274
  286
  299
  313
  327
  342
  358
  375
  392
  411
  430
Discount rate, %
 
  7.20
  7.56
  7.94
  8.33
  8.75
  9.19
  9.65
  10.13
  10.64
  11.17
  11.73
  12.31
  12.93
  13.58
  14.26
  14.97
  15.72
  16.50
  17.33
  18.19
  19.10
  20.06
  21.06
  22.11
  23.22
  24.38
  25.60
  26.88
  28.22
  29.64
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  138
  119
  114
  109
  103
  96
  89
  81
  74
  66
  54
  48
  41
  35
  30
  25
  20
  16
  13
  10
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

ACCO Brands Corporation manufactures, markets, and distributes office, school, and calendar products primarily in the United States, Northern Europe, Brazil, Canada, Australia, and Mexico. The company also provides computer and electronic accessories. It operates through three segments: ACCO Brands North America, ACCO Brands International, and Computer Products Group. The company offers office products, such as stapling, binding and laminating equipment, and related consumable supplies, as well as shredders and whiteboards; and school products, including notebooks, folders, decorative calendars, and stationery products. It also provides private label products within the office and school products sector, as well as business machine maintenance and repair services. The company offers its office products, school supplies, and calendar products under the AT-A-GLANCE, Day-Timer, Five Star, GBC, Hilroy, Marbig, Mead, NOBO, Quartet, Rexel, Swingline, Tilibra, Wilson Jones, and other brand names. In addition, it designs, sources, distributes, markets, and sells accessories for laptop and desktop computers, and tablets comprising security products; input devices, such as presenters, mice, and trackballs; ergonomic aids, including foot and wrist rests; docking stations; and other personal computers and tablet accessories under the Kensington, Microsaver, and ClickSafe brand names. The company sells its products to consumers and commercial end-users primarily through resellers, including traditional office supply resellers, wholesalers, mass merchandisers, and retailers, as well as directly to consumers through on-line and direct mail. ACCO Brands Corporation is headquartered in Lake Zurich, Illinois.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ACCO Brands (ACCO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 12.9
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 8.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -32.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 88.4%
Total Debt to Equity 98.2%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Return On Total Capital 7.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Return On Equity 14.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.9%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 33.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32%
EBITDA Margin 14.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
Operating Margin 10.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Net Profit Margin 6.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Effective Tax Rate 23.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

ACCO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ACCO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1557 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ACCO Brands. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of ACCO Brands. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ACCO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.2%, whose default value for ACCO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ACCO Brands, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ACCO Brands.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ACCO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ACCO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.1% for ACCO Brands.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ACCO Brands. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ACCO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ACCO are equal to 48%.

Life of production assets of 24.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ACCO Brands operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ACCO is equal to 18.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $709 million for ACCO Brands - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 103.597 million for ACCO Brands is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ACCO Brands at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

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Stock chart of ACCO Financial statements of ACCO Annual reports of ACCO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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