Intrinsic value of Aceto - ACET

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$15.72

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$15.72

 
Intrinsic value

$19.59

 
Up/down potential

+25%

 
Rating

buy

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ACET stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.19
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  559
  570
  583
  598
  615
  634
  654
  677
  701
  727
  754
  784
  816
  850
  886
  924
  965
  1,008
  1,053
  1,101
  1,152
  1,205
  1,261
  1,321
  1,383
  1,449
  1,518
  1,591
  1,668
  1,749
  1,834
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  475
  486
  498
  512
  528
  544
  563
  583
  604
  627
  645
  671
  699
  728
  760
  793
  828
  865
  905
  946
  990
  1,036
  1,085
  1,137
  1,191
  1,248
  1,308
  1,371
  1,437
  1,507
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  50
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
  58
  59
  60
  62
  64
  65
  67
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
Total operating expenses, $m
  501
  512
  524
  537
  552
  569
  586
  606
  627
  649
  673
  692
  719
  749
  779
  812
  846
  883
  921
  963
  1,005
  1,050
  1,098
  1,149
  1,202
  1,258
  1,316
  1,378
  1,443
  1,511
  1,583
Operating income, $m
  58
  58
  59
  61
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  82
  93
  97
  102
  107
  113
  118
  125
  131
  139
  146
  154
  163
  172
  181
  191
  202
  213
  225
  238
  251
EBITDA, $m
  71
  72
  74
  76
  78
  81
  83
  87
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
  131
  138
  145
  153
  161
  170
  179
  189
  199
  210
  222
  234
  247
  261
  275
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
Earnings before tax, $m
  54
  54
  55
  57
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  75
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
  149
  157
  166
  175
  185
  195
  206
  217
  229
Tax expense, $m
  19
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
Net income, $m
  35
  39
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  128
  135
  142
  150
  159
  167

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  68
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  541
  482
  493
  506
  520
  536
  553
  572
  593
  615
  638
  664
  690
  719
  750
  782
  816
  853
  891
  931
  974
  1,019
  1,067
  1,117
  1,170
  1,226
  1,284
  1,346
  1,411
  1,479
  1,551
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  473
  482
  493
  506
  520
  536
  553
  572
  593
  615
  638
  664
  690
  719
  750
  782
  816
  853
  891
  931
  974
  1,019
  1,067
  1,117
  1,170
  1,226
  1,284
  1,346
  1,411
  1,479
  1,551
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.182
  1.183
  1.183
  1.182
  1.183
  1.183
  1.183
  1.184
  1.182
  1.182
  1.182
  1.181
  1.183
  1.182
  1.181
  1.182
  1.183
  1.182
  1.182
  1.183
  1.183
  1.183
  1.182
  1.183
  1.182
  1.182
  1.182
  1.182
  1.182
  1.183
  1.182
Average production assets, $m
  89
  91
  93
  95
  98
  101
  104
  108
  111
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  141
  147
  153
  160
  167
  175
  183
  192
  201
  210
  220
  230
  241
  253
  265
  278
  292
Working capital, $m
  254
  190
  194
  199
  205
  211
  218
  225
  233
  242
  251
  261
  272
  283
  295
  308
  321
  336
  351
  367
  383
  401
  420
  440
  461
  482
  506
  530
  555
  582
  611
Total debt, $m
  119
  124
  129
  136
  143
  151
  159
  169
  179
  190
  202
  214
  228
  242
  258
  274
  291
  309
  328
  349
  370
  393
  417
  442
  468
  496
  525
  556
  589
  623
  659
Total liabilities, $m
  236
  242
  247
  254
  261
  269
  277
  287
  297
  308
  320
  332
  346
  360
  376
  392
  409
  427
  446
  467
  488
  511
  535
  560
  586
  614
  643
  674
  707
  741
  777
Total equity, $m
  304
  241
  246
  253
  260
  268
  276
  286
  296
  307
  319
  331
  345
  359
  374
  390
  407
  425
  445
  465
  486
  509
  532
  557
  584
  612
  641
  672
  704
  738
  774
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  540
  483
  493
  507
  521
  537
  553
  573
  593
  615
  639
  663
  691
  719
  750
  782
  816
  852
  891
  932
  974
  1,020
  1,067
  1,117
  1,170
  1,226
  1,284
  1,346
  1,411
  1,479
  1,551
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.391
  0.510
  0.520
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.580
  0.590
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.650
  0.660
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
  0.730
  0.740
  0.750
  0.760
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.820
  0.830
  0.840
  0.840
  0.850
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  35
  39
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  128
  135
  142
  150
  159
  167
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
Funds from operations, $m
  8
  54
  55
  56
  57
  59
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
  119
  125
  132
  139
  147
  155
  163
  172
  182
  192
Change in working capital, $m
  -24
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
Cash from operations, $m
  32
  50
  50
  51
  52
  53
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  63
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  101
  107
  112
  118
  125
  132
  139
  147
  155
  163
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
New CAPEX, $m
  -12
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -10
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -20
  -20
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
Free cash flow, $m
  22
  41
  41
  41
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  96
  102
  107
  113
  120
  127
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  37
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  18
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  40
  45
  46
  47
  48
  50
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  100
  106
  111
  118
  124
  131
  138
  146
  154
  163
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -50
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  68
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  109
  41
  41
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  96
  102
  108
  114
  120
  127
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  104
  37
  36
  34
  33
  31
  30
  28
  27
  25
  23
  21
  20
  18
  17
  15
  14
  12
  11
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
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Aceto Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, sources, markets, sells, and distributes finished dosage form generics, nutraceutical products, pharmaceutical intermediates and active ingredients, agricultural protection products, and specialty chemicals. The company operates in three segments: Human Health, Pharmaceutical Ingredients, and Performance Chemicals. The Human Health segment supplies raw materials used in the production of nutritional and packaged dietary supplements, including vitamins, amino acids, iron compounds, and bio chemicals used in pharmaceutical and nutritional preparations. It markets and distributes its generic prescription and over the counter pharmaceutical products to wholesalers, chain drug stores, distributors, and mass market merchandisers. The Pharmaceutical Ingredients segment offers active pharmaceutical ingredients and pharmaceutical intermediates to various generic drug companies. The Performance Chemicals segment provides specialty chemicals for use in the manufacture of plastics, surface coatings, cosmetics and personal care products, textiles, and fuels and lubricants, as well as for food, flavor, paper, and film industries; dye and pigment intermediates used in the color-producing industries; and organic intermediates used in the production of agrochemicals. Its raw materials are also used in electronic parts for photo tooling, circuit boards, and production of computer chips. This segment also offers agricultural protection products comprising herbicides, fungicides, and insecticides, which control weed growth and the spread of insects and microorganisms; and sprout inhibitors for potatoes. The company serves various companies in the industrial chemical, agricultural, and human health and pharmaceutical industries primarily in the United States, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific. Aceto Corporation was founded in 1947 and is headquartered in Port Washington, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Aceto (ACET)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 13.3
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 23.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 500%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 32%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 39.1%
Total Debt to Equity 39.1%
Interest Coverage 19
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Return On Total Capital 8.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Return On Equity 12.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.2%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 25.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.3%
EBITDA Margin 12.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Operating Margin 10.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Net Profit Margin 6.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Effective Tax Rate 35.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.5%
Payout Ratio 20%

ACET stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ACET stock intrinsic value calculation we used $559 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Aceto. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Aceto. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ACET stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ACET is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Aceto, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Aceto.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ACET stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $36 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ACET stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Aceto.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Aceto. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ACET stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ACET are equal to 15.9%.

Life of production assets of 12.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Aceto operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ACET is equal to 33.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $304 million for Aceto - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 29.887 million for Aceto is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Aceto at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.


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Stock chart of ACET Financial statements of ACET
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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