Intrinsic value of Axcelis Technologies - ACLS

Previous Close

$23.00

  Intrinsic Value

$1.77

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-92%

  Value-price divergence*

-200%

Previous close

$23.00

 
Intrinsic value

$1.77

 
Up/down potential

-92%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-200%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ACLS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -11.59
  27.90
  25.61
  23.55
  21.69
  20.02
  18.52
  17.17
  15.95
  14.86
  13.87
  12.98
  12.19
  11.47
  10.82
  10.24
  9.71
  9.24
  8.82
  8.44
  8.09
  7.78
  7.51
  7.26
  7.03
  6.83
  6.64
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
Revenue, $m
  267
  341
  429
  530
  645
  774
  917
  1,075
  1,246
  1,432
  1,630
  1,842
  2,066
  2,303
  2,553
  2,814
  3,087
  3,373
  3,670
  3,980
  4,302
  4,637
  4,985
  5,347
  5,722
  6,113
  6,519
  6,942
  7,381
  7,839
  8,315
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  302
  379
  468
  570
  684
  811
  950
  1,102
  1,266
  1,441
  1,628
  1,827
  2,036
  2,257
  2,488
  2,729
  2,982
  3,244
  3,518
  3,803
  4,099
  4,407
  4,726
  5,059
  5,404
  5,763
  6,136
  6,525
  6,929
  7,351
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
Total operating expenses, $m
  250
  316
  394
  483
  585
  700
  827
  967
  1,119
  1,283
  1,459
  1,646
  1,846
  2,055
  2,277
  2,508
  2,750
  3,003
  3,266
  3,540
  3,826
  4,123
  4,431
  4,751
  5,084
  5,430
  5,790
  6,163
  6,553
  6,958
  7,380
Operating income, $m
  17
  25
  35
  46
  59
  74
  90
  108
  128
  149
  171
  195
  221
  248
  276
  306
  337
  370
  404
  439
  476
  514
  554
  595
  638
  683
  730
  778
  828
  881
  935
EBITDA, $m
  21
  30
  41
  54
  69
  85
  104
  124
  146
  170
  196
  223
  252
  282
  314
  348
  383
  420
  459
  499
  540
  584
  628
  675
  724
  774
  827
  881
  938
  998
  1,059
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  5
  8
  11
  15
  20
  25
  31
  37
  43
  51
  59
  67
  76
  85
  95
  105
  116
  127
  139
  151
  164
  177
  190
  205
  219
  235
  251
  267
  285
  303
Earnings before tax, $m
  11
  20
  27
  35
  44
  54
  65
  77
  91
  105
  120
  137
  154
  172
  191
  211
  232
  254
  277
  301
  325
  351
  377
  405
  434
  464
  495
  527
  561
  596
  633
Tax expense, $m
  0
  5
  7
  9
  12
  15
  18
  21
  25
  28
  33
  37
  42
  46
  52
  57
  63
  69
  75
  81
  88
  95
  102
  109
  117
  125
  134
  142
  151
  161
  171
Net income, $m
  11
  15
  20
  26
  32
  40
  48
  57
  66
  77
  88
  100
  112
  126
  140
  154
  170
  185
  202
  219
  237
  256
  275
  296
  317
  338
  361
  385
  409
  435
  462

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  71
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  302
  295
  371
  458
  558
  670
  794
  930
  1,078
  1,238
  1,410
  1,593
  1,788
  1,993
  2,208
  2,434
  2,671
  2,918
  3,175
  3,443
  3,721
  4,011
  4,312
  4,625
  4,950
  5,288
  5,639
  6,005
  6,385
  6,781
  7,193
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  231
  295
  371
  458
  558
  670
  794
  930
  1,078
  1,238
  1,410
  1,593
  1,788
  1,993
  2,208
  2,434
  2,671
  2,918
  3,175
  3,443
  3,721
  4,011
  4,312
  4,625
  4,950
  5,288
  5,639
  6,005
  6,385
  6,781
  7,193
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.157
  1.156
  1.155
  1.155
  1.156
  1.156
  1.157
  1.156
  1.156
  1.155
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
Average production assets, $m
  47
  60
  75
  93
  114
  136
  161
  189
  219
  252
  287
  324
  364
  405
  449
  495
  543
  594
  646
  700
  757
  816
  877
  941
  1,007
  1,076
  1,147
  1,222
  1,299
  1,380
  1,463
Working capital, $m
  193
  156
  196
  242
  295
  354
  419
  491
  570
  654
  745
  842
  944
  1,053
  1,167
  1,286
  1,411
  1,541
  1,677
  1,819
  1,966
  2,119
  2,278
  2,443
  2,615
  2,794
  2,979
  3,172
  3,373
  3,582
  3,800
Total debt, $m
  48
  76
  109
  147
  191
  240
  294
  353
  418
  488
  563
  643
  728
  818
  912
  1,011
  1,114
  1,222
  1,334
  1,452
  1,573
  1,700
  1,831
  1,968
  2,110
  2,258
  2,411
  2,571
  2,737
  2,910
  3,090
Total liabilities, $m
  101
  129
  162
  200
  244
  293
  347
  406
  471
  541
  616
  696
  781
  871
  965
  1,064
  1,167
  1,275
  1,387
  1,505
  1,626
  1,753
  1,884
  2,021
  2,163
  2,311
  2,464
  2,624
  2,790
  2,963
  3,143
Total equity, $m
  201
  166
  209
  258
  314
  377
  447
  524
  607
  697
  794
  897
  1,006
  1,122
  1,243
  1,370
  1,504
  1,643
  1,787
  1,938
  2,095
  2,258
  2,428
  2,604
  2,787
  2,977
  3,175
  3,381
  3,595
  3,818
  4,050
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  302
  295
  371
  458
  558
  670
  794
  930
  1,078
  1,238
  1,410
  1,593
  1,787
  1,993
  2,208
  2,434
  2,671
  2,918
  3,174
  3,443
  3,721
  4,011
  4,312
  4,625
  4,950
  5,288
  5,639
  6,005
  6,385
  6,781
  7,193
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.239
  0.460
  0.520
  0.570
  0.610
  0.640
  0.660
  0.670
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
  0.720
  0.720
  0.730
  0.730
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  11
  15
  20
  26
  32
  40
  48
  57
  66
  77
  88
  100
  112
  126
  140
  154
  170
  185
  202
  219
  237
  256
  275
  296
  317
  338
  361
  385
  409
  435
  462
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  4
  5
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  24
  27
  31
  34
  38
  42
  46
  50
  55
  59
  64
  69
  74
  80
  85
  91
  97
  104
  110
  117
  124
Funds from operations, $m
  -40
  20
  26
  33
  42
  51
  61
  73
  85
  98
  112
  127
  143
  160
  178
  196
  216
  236
  257
  279
  302
  325
  350
  375
  402
  430
  458
  488
  520
  552
  586
Change in working capital, $m
  -31
  34
  40
  46
  53
  59
  66
  72
  78
  85
  91
  97
  103
  108
  114
  119
  125
  130
  136
  142
  147
  153
  159
  165
  172
  179
  186
  193
  201
  209
  218
Cash from operations, $m
  -9
  -14
  -14
  -13
  -11
  -8
  -4
  1
  6
  13
  21
  31
  41
  52
  64
  77
  91
  105
  121
  137
  154
  172
  191
  210
  230
  251
  273
  295
  319
  343
  368
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -31
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -46
  -50
  -55
  -59
  -64
  -69
  -74
  -80
  -85
  -91
  -97
  -104
  -110
  -117
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2
  -17
  -20
  -24
  -28
  -33
  -37
  -42
  -46
  -52
  -56
  -61
  -67
  -73
  -78
  -84
  -90
  -96
  -102
  -110
  -116
  -123
  -130
  -138
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -171
  -181
  -191
  -201
Free cash flow, $m
  -11
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -41
  -40
  -38
  -35
  -31
  -26
  -21
  -14
  -7
  1
  9
  18
  28
  38
  49
  60
  72
  84
  97
  110
  124
  138
  152
  167
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  28
  33
  38
  43
  49
  54
  60
  65
  70
  75
  80
  85
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  142
  148
  154
  160
  166
  173
  180
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  3
  22
  23
  24
  24
  23
  22
  20
  17
  13
  9
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  2
  50
  56
  62
  67
  72
  76
  80
  82
  83
  84
  83
  85
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  142
  148
  154
  160
  166
  173
  180
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -8
  18
  22
  25
  28
  32
  35
  39
  42
  46
  49
  52
  59
  69
  80
  92
  104
  117
  131
  145
  160
  176
  192
  209
  226
  245
  264
  283
  304
  325
  347
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -17
  -36
  -43
  -49
  -56
  -63
  -70
  -77
  -84
  -90
  -97
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -163
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -190
  -198
  -206
  -214
  -223
  -232
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  71
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  53
  -21
  -24
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -51
  -51
  -47
  -42
  -36
  -29
  -22
  -14
  -6
  3
  13
  22
  33
  43
  54
  66
  78
  90
  102
  115
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  51
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -25
  -24
  -22
  -18
  -14
  -11
  -7
  -5
  -3
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  95.1
  91.3
  88.2
  85.8
  83.9
  82.4
  81.2
  80.4
  79.9
  79.6
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5

Axcelis Technologies, Inc. designs, manufactures, and services ion implantation and other processing equipment used in the fabrication of semiconductor chips worldwide. It offers a line of high energy, high current, and medium current implanters for all application requirements. The company also provides dry strip systems for smaller wafers. In addition, it offers extensive aftermarket lifecycle products and services, including used tools, spare parts, equipment upgrades, maintenance services, and customer training. The company sells its equipment and services to semiconductor chip manufacturers through direct sales force. Axcelis Technologies, Inc. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Beverly, Massachusetts.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Axcelis Technologies (ACLS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 61.7
Price to Sales 2.5
Price to Book 3.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -75.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -56.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -11.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 24.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 23.9%
Total Debt to Equity 23.9%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Return On Total Capital 4.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Return On Equity 5.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 37.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.2%
EBITDA Margin 7.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Operating Margin 6.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Net Profit Margin 4.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

ACLS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ACLS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $267 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Axcelis Technologies. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Axcelis Technologies. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ACLS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 27.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ACLS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Axcelis Technologies, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Axcelis Technologies.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ACLS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $14 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ACLS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 10.4% for Axcelis Technologies.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Axcelis Technologies. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ACLS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ACLS are equal to 17.6%.

Life of production assets of 11.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Axcelis Technologies operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ACLS is equal to 45.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $201 million for Axcelis Technologies - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 28.359 million for Axcelis Technologies is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Axcelis Technologies at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Axcelis Technologies Gets A Composite Rating Upgrade   [10:45AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Why Shares of Axcelis Technologies Popped Today   [May-05-17 02:55PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Axcelis tops Street 1Q forecasts   [May-04-17 05:44PM  Associated Press]
▶ Why Axcelis Technologies Inc. Stock Rose 21.7% in March   [Apr-10-17 05:40PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Top Ranked Growth Stocks to Buy for March 27th   [Mar-27-17 11:46AM  Zacks]
▶ Axcelis Technologies Is a Friend of the Bulls   [Feb-13-17 02:17PM  at TheStreet]
▶ Axcelis tops 4Q profit forecasts   [Feb-01-17 05:14PM  AP]
▶ Axcelis Can Ride Ramp in 3-D NAND, DRAM Chips, Says Needham   [Jan-30-17 06:46PM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Is Axcelis Technologies Inc (ACLS) A Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-14-16 08:29PM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of ACLS Financial statements of ACLS Annual reports of ACLS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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