Intrinsic value of AECOM - ACM

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$34.21

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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$34.21

 
Intrinsic value

$35.92

 
Up/down potential

+5%

 
Rating

hold

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ACM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -3.22
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  17,411
  17,759
  18,168
  18,635
  19,159
  19,740
  20,377
  21,071
  21,822
  22,631
  23,500
  24,429
  25,421
  26,476
  27,598
  28,789
  30,050
  31,386
  32,798
  34,290
  35,866
  37,528
  39,281
  41,129
  43,077
  45,127
  47,286
  49,559
  51,951
  54,467
  57,113
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  17,623
  18,015
  18,463
  18,966
  19,524
  20,135
  20,801
  21,522
  22,298
  23,132
  23,441
  24,392
  25,405
  26,482
  27,624
  28,835
  30,116
  31,471
  32,903
  34,415
  36,010
  37,692
  39,466
  41,334
  43,302
  45,374
  47,554
  49,849
  52,263
  54,803
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  17,035
  17,623
  18,015
  18,463
  18,966
  19,524
  20,135
  20,801
  21,522
  22,298
  23,132
  23,441
  24,392
  25,405
  26,482
  27,624
  28,835
  30,116
  31,471
  32,903
  34,415
  36,010
  37,692
  39,466
  41,334
  43,302
  45,374
  47,554
  49,849
  52,263
  54,803
Operating income, $m
  376
  136
  152
  171
  193
  216
  242
  270
  300
  333
  368
  988
  1,028
  1,071
  1,116
  1,165
  1,216
  1,270
  1,327
  1,387
  1,451
  1,518
  1,589
  1,664
  1,742
  1,825
  1,913
  2,005
  2,101
  2,203
  2,310
EBITDA, $m
  775
  774
  792
  812
  835
  860
  888
  918
  951
  986
  1,024
  1,065
  1,108
  1,154
  1,203
  1,255
  1,310
  1,368
  1,430
  1,495
  1,563
  1,636
  1,712
  1,793
  1,878
  1,967
  2,061
  2,160
  2,264
  2,374
  2,489
Interest expense (income), $m
  216
  185
  195
  207
  220
  235
  251
  270
  289
  311
  334
  359
  385
  413
  444
  476
  510
  546
  584
  624
  667
  711
  759
  809
  862
  917
  976
  1,037
  1,102
  1,170
  1,242
Earnings before tax, $m
  126
  -49
  -42
  -35
  -27
  -19
  -10
  0
  11
  22
  34
  629
  643
  657
  673
  689
  706
  724
  743
  763
  784
  807
  830
  855
  881
  908
  937
  967
  999
  1,033
  1,068
Tax expense, $m
  -37
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  3
  6
  9
  170
  174
  178
  182
  186
  191
  195
  201
  206
  212
  218
  224
  231
  238
  245
  253
  261
  270
  279
  288
Net income, $m
  96
  -49
  -42
  -35
  -27
  -19
  -10
  0
  8
  16
  25
  460
  469
  480
  491
  503
  515
  529
  542
  557
  573
  589
  606
  624
  643
  663
  684
  706
  729
  754
  780

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  736
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  13,670
  13,194
  13,498
  13,844
  14,234
  14,665
  15,139
  15,654
  16,213
  16,814
  17,459
  18,149
  18,886
  19,670
  20,504
  21,388
  22,326
  23,318
  24,367
  25,476
  26,646
  27,881
  29,184
  30,557
  32,003
  33,527
  35,131
  36,820
  38,596
  40,466
  42,432
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  12,934
  13,194
  13,498
  13,844
  14,234
  14,665
  15,139
  15,654
  16,213
  16,814
  17,459
  18,149
  18,886
  19,670
  20,504
  21,388
  22,326
  23,318
  24,367
  25,476
  26,646
  27,881
  29,184
  30,557
  32,003
  33,527
  35,131
  36,820
  38,596
  40,466
  42,432
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.346
  1.346
  1.346
  1.346
  1.346
  1.346
  1.346
  1.346
  1.346
  1.346
  1.346
  1.346
  1.346
  1.346
  1.346
  1.346
  1.346
  1.346
  1.346
  1.346
  1.346
  1.346
  1.346
  1.346
  1.346
  1.346
  1.346
  1.346
  1.346
  1.346
  1.346
Average production assets, $m
  919
  941
  963
  988
  1,015
  1,046
  1,080
  1,117
  1,157
  1,199
  1,245
  1,295
  1,347
  1,403
  1,463
  1,526
  1,593
  1,663
  1,738
  1,817
  1,901
  1,989
  2,082
  2,180
  2,283
  2,392
  2,506
  2,627
  2,753
  2,887
  3,027
Working capital, $m
  696
  337
  345
  354
  364
  375
  387
  400
  415
  430
  446
  464
  483
  503
  524
  547
  571
  596
  623
  652
  681
  713
  746
  781
  818
  857
  898
  942
  987
  1,035
  1,085
Total debt, $m
  4,068
  3,898
  4,131
  4,398
  4,697
  5,028
  5,392
  5,788
  6,216
  6,678
  7,174
  7,704
  8,269
  8,872
  9,512
  10,191
  10,911
  11,673
  12,479
  13,330
  14,229
  15,178
  16,178
  17,233
  18,344
  19,514
  20,746
  22,042
  23,407
  24,843
  26,352
Total liabilities, $m
  10,303
  10,133
  10,366
  10,633
  10,932
  11,263
  11,627
  12,023
  12,451
  12,913
  13,409
  13,939
  14,504
  15,107
  15,747
  16,426
  17,146
  17,908
  18,714
  19,565
  20,464
  21,413
  22,413
  23,468
  24,579
  25,749
  26,981
  28,277
  29,642
  31,078
  32,587
Total equity, $m
  3,367
  3,061
  3,131
  3,212
  3,302
  3,402
  3,512
  3,632
  3,761
  3,901
  4,051
  4,211
  4,382
  4,564
  4,757
  4,962
  5,180
  5,410
  5,653
  5,910
  6,182
  6,468
  6,771
  7,089
  7,425
  7,778
  8,150
  8,542
  8,954
  9,388
  9,844
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  13,670
  13,194
  13,497
  13,845
  14,234
  14,665
  15,139
  15,655
  16,212
  16,814
  17,460
  18,150
  18,886
  19,671
  20,504
  21,388
  22,326
  23,318
  24,367
  25,475
  26,646
  27,881
  29,184
  30,557
  32,004
  33,527
  35,131
  36,819
  38,596
  40,466
  42,431
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.208
  1.270
  1.320
  1.370
  1.420
  1.480
  1.540
  1.590
  1.650
  1.710
  1.770
  1.830
  1.890
  1.940
  2.000
  2.050
  2.110
  2.160
  2.210
  2.260
  2.300
  2.350
  2.390
  2.430
  2.470
  2.510
  2.550
  2.580
  2.610
  2.650
  2.680
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.205
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  96
  -49
  -42
  -35
  -27
  -19
  -10
  0
  8
  16
  25
  460
  469
  480
  491
  503
  515
  529
  542
  557
  573
  589
  606
  624
  643
  663
  684
  706
  729
  754
  780
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  399
  638
  639
  641
  642
  644
  646
  648
  651
  653
  656
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  112
  118
  123
  129
  135
  142
  148
  155
  163
  171
  179
Funds from operations, $m
  1,038
  589
  597
  606
  615
  626
  637
  649
  659
  670
  681
  536
  549
  563
  578
  593
  610
  627
  645
  665
  685
  706
  729
  753
  778
  805
  832
  862
  892
  925
  959
Change in working capital, $m
  224
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
Cash from operations, $m
  814
  142
  589
  597
  605
  615
  625
  636
  645
  654
  665
  518
  530
  543
  556
  571
  586
  602
  618
  636
  655
  675
  696
  718
  741
  766
  791
  818
  847
  877
  909
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -54
  -56
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -112
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -171
New CAPEX, $m
  -191
  -22
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -127
  -133
  -140
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -163
  -76
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -150
  -157
  -165
  -173
  -182
  -192
  -200
  -211
  -221
  -232
  -244
  -256
  -268
  -282
  -296
  -311
Free cash flow, $m
  651
  66
  512
  515
  519
  524
  529
  535
  539
  543
  548
  396
  401
  407
  414
  421
  428
  437
  445
  454
  464
  474
  485
  497
  509
  522
  535
  550
  565
  581
  597
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -494
  196
  233
  266
  299
  331
  364
  396
  429
  462
  496
  530
  566
  602
  640
  679
  720
  762
  806
  851
  899
  949
  1,000
  1,054
  1,111
  1,170
  1,232
  1,297
  1,365
  1,436
  1,510
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -638
  196
  233
  266
  299
  331
  364
  396
  429
  462
  496
  530
  566
  602
  640
  679
  720
  762
  806
  851
  899
  949
  1,000
  1,054
  1,111
  1,170
  1,232
  1,297
  1,365
  1,436
  1,510
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  8
  262
  745
  781
  818
  855
  893
  931
  967
  1,005
  1,043
  926
  967
  1,010
  1,054
  1,100
  1,148
  1,199
  1,251
  1,306
  1,363
  1,423
  1,486
  1,551
  1,620
  1,692
  1,767
  1,846
  1,929
  2,016
  2,107
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  41
  -64
  -70
  -80
  -90
  -100
  -110
  -120
  -129
  -139
  -150
  -160
  -171
  -182
  -193
  -205
  -217
  -230
  -243
  -257
  -272
  -287
  -302
  -319
  -336
  -353
  -372
  -392
  -412
  -434
  -456
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  370
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  568
  675
  701
  728
  755
  783
  811
  838
  865
  893
  766
  796
  828
  861
  895
  931
  968
  1,008
  1,049
  1,091
  1,136
  1,183
  1,233
  1,284
  1,338
  1,395
  1,455
  1,517
  1,583
  1,651
Discount rate, %
 
  7.80
  8.19
  8.60
  9.03
  9.48
  9.95
  10.45
  10.98
  11.52
  12.10
  12.71
  13.34
  14.01
  14.71
  15.44
  16.22
  17.03
  17.88
  18.77
  19.71
  20.70
  21.73
  22.82
  23.96
  25.16
  26.41
  27.73
  29.12
  30.58
  32.11
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  527
  576
  547
  515
  480
  443
  404
  364
  324
  285
  205
  177
  151
  126
  104
  84
  67
  52
  40
  30
  22
  16
  11
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

AECOM, together with its subsidiaries, engages in designing, building, financing, and operating infrastructure assets worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Design and Consulting Services (DCS), Construction Services (CS), and Management Services (MS). The DCS segment provides planning, consulting, architectural and engineering design, program management, and construction management services for industrial, commercial, institutional, and government clients, such as transportation, facilities, environmental, and energy/power markets. The CS segment offers building construction and energy, as well as infrastructure and industrial construction services. The MS segment provides program and facilities management and maintenance, training, logistics, consulting, technical assistance, and systems integration and information technology services primarily for agencies of the U.S. government and other national governments. The company was formerly known as AECOM Technology Corporation and changed its name to AECOM in January 2015. AECOM was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  AECOM (ACM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 54.8
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 8.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 67.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 29.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 109.9%
Total Debt to Equity 120.8%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Return On Total Capital 1.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Return On Equity 2.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 3.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
EBITDA Margin 4.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Operating Margin 2.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Net Profit Margin 0.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Effective Tax Rate -29.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

ACM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ACM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $17411 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by AECOM. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of AECOM. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ACM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.8%, whose default value for ACM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of AECOM, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of AECOM.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ACM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 99.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ACM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5% for AECOM.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for AECOM. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ACM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ACM are equal to 5.3%.

Life of production assets of 16.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in AECOM operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ACM is equal to 1.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3367 million for AECOM - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 155.1 million for AECOM is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of AECOM at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.3 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ AECOM architect reflects on six hockey arenas he helped design   [Jan-26-17 04:20PM  at bizjournals.com]
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▶ AECOM to host 2017 Investor Day on Dec. 13   [08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Why AECOM Technology Stock Spiked 14.8% Today   [03:41PM  at Motley Fool]
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Stock chart of ACM Financial statements of ACM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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