Intrinsic value of Acorda Therapeutics - ACOR

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$16.50

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$16.50

 
Intrinsic value

$14.07

 
Up/down potential

-15%

 
Rating

hold

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ACOR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.48
  7.60
  7.34
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.54
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
Revenue, $m
  520
  560
  601
  643
  688
  734
  782
  832
  883
  938
  994
  1,053
  1,114
  1,178
  1,244
  1,314
  1,387
  1,463
  1,542
  1,625
  1,712
  1,803
  1,899
  1,998
  2,103
  2,212
  2,327
  2,447
  2,574
  2,706
  2,844
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  519
  555
  592
  631
  672
  714
  757
  803
  850
  900
  923
  977
  1,033
  1,091
  1,152
  1,216
  1,283
  1,352
  1,425
  1,502
  1,581
  1,665
  1,753
  1,844
  1,940
  2,041
  2,146
  2,257
  2,373
  2,494
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  556
  519
  555
  592
  631
  672
  714
  757
  803
  850
  900
  923
  977
  1,033
  1,091
  1,152
  1,216
  1,283
  1,352
  1,425
  1,502
  1,581
  1,665
  1,753
  1,844
  1,940
  2,041
  2,146
  2,257
  2,373
  2,494
Operating income, $m
  -36
  41
  46
  51
  57
  62
  68
  74
  81
  87
  94
  130
  137
  145
  153
  162
  171
  180
  190
  200
  211
  222
  234
  246
  259
  272
  286
  301
  317
  333
  350
EBITDA, $m
  -14
  91
  98
  105
  112
  120
  127
  136
  144
  153
  162
  172
  182
  192
  203
  214
  226
  238
  251
  265
  279
  294
  309
  326
  343
  361
  379
  399
  419
  441
  464
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  28
  30
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  79
  83
  88
  94
  99
  105
  111
Earnings before tax, $m
  -42
  29
  33
  36
  40
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  64
  97
  102
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  180
  189
  198
  208
  218
  228
  239
Tax expense, $m
  -6
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
Net income, $m
  -35
  21
  24
  26
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  125
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167
  175

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  159
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,342
  1,272
  1,365
  1,462
  1,563
  1,668
  1,777
  1,890
  2,008
  2,131
  2,259
  2,392
  2,531
  2,677
  2,828
  2,986
  3,152
  3,324
  3,505
  3,694
  3,892
  4,098
  4,315
  4,542
  4,779
  5,028
  5,289
  5,562
  5,849
  6,149
  6,464
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,183
  1,272
  1,365
  1,462
  1,563
  1,668
  1,777
  1,890
  2,008
  2,131
  2,259
  2,392
  2,531
  2,677
  2,828
  2,986
  3,152
  3,324
  3,505
  3,694
  3,892
  4,098
  4,315
  4,542
  4,779
  5,028
  5,289
  5,562
  5,849
  6,149
  6,464
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
Average production assets, $m
  624
  671
  720
  771
  824
  880
  937
  997
  1,059
  1,124
  1,192
  1,262
  1,335
  1,412
  1,492
  1,575
  1,663
  1,754
  1,849
  1,949
  2,053
  2,162
  2,276
  2,396
  2,521
  2,653
  2,790
  2,934
  3,086
  3,244
  3,410
Working capital, $m
  125
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -179
Total debt, $m
  325
  374
  428
  483
  541
  601
  663
  728
  796
  866
  939
  1,015
  1,095
  1,178
  1,265
  1,355
  1,450
  1,549
  1,652
  1,760
  1,873
  1,991
  2,115
  2,245
  2,381
  2,523
  2,672
  2,829
  2,993
  3,164
  3,345
Total liabilities, $m
  678
  727
  781
  836
  894
  954
  1,016
  1,081
  1,149
  1,219
  1,292
  1,368
  1,448
  1,531
  1,618
  1,708
  1,803
  1,902
  2,005
  2,113
  2,226
  2,344
  2,468
  2,598
  2,734
  2,876
  3,025
  3,182
  3,346
  3,517
  3,698
Total equity, $m
  664
  544
  584
  626
  669
  714
  760
  809
  859
  912
  967
  1,024
  1,083
  1,146
  1,210
  1,278
  1,349
  1,423
  1,500
  1,581
  1,666
  1,754
  1,847
  1,944
  2,046
  2,152
  2,264
  2,381
  2,503
  2,632
  2,767
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,342
  1,271
  1,365
  1,462
  1,563
  1,668
  1,776
  1,890
  2,008
  2,131
  2,259
  2,392
  2,531
  2,677
  2,828
  2,986
  3,152
  3,325
  3,505
  3,694
  3,892
  4,098
  4,315
  4,542
  4,780
  5,028
  5,289
  5,563
  5,849
  6,149
  6,465
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.489
  0.690
  0.730
  0.770
  0.810
  0.840
  0.870
  0.900
  0.930
  0.950
  0.970
  0.990
  1.010
  1.030
  1.040
  1.060
  1.070
  1.090
  1.100
  1.110
  1.120
  1.140
  1.150
  1.150
  1.160
  1.170
  1.180
  1.190
  1.200
  1.200
  1.210
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.427
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -35
  21
  24
  26
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  125
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167
  175
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  22
  50
  52
  54
  56
  57
  59
  61
  63
  66
  68
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  55
  58
  62
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
Funds from operations, $m
  50
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  94
  99
  104
  109
  114
  113
  119
  125
  131
  138
  145
  153
  161
  169
  177
  186
  196
  205
  216
  226
  238
  249
  262
  275
  288
Change in working capital, $m
  15
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
Cash from operations, $m
  35
  227
  79
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
  107
  112
  118
  116
  122
  129
  136
  143
  150
  158
  166
  174
  183
  192
  202
  212
  222
  233
  245
  257
  270
  283
  297
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -74
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -122
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -162
  -169
  -177
  -186
  -196
  -205
  -215
  -226
  -237
  -249
  -261
  -274
Free cash flow, $m
  -39
  159
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  50
  53
  55
  58
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  180
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  76
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  46
  50
  53
  55
  58
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  180
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  5
  209
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  82
  86
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  185
  194
  203
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -61
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  158
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  329
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
Discount rate, %
 
  6.20
  6.51
  6.84
  7.18
  7.54
  7.91
  8.31
  8.72
  9.16
  9.62
  10.10
  10.60
  11.13
  11.69
  12.28
  12.89
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.67
  16.45
  17.27
  18.14
  19.04
  20.00
  21.00
  22.05
  23.15
  24.30
  25.52
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  310
  18
  18
  17
  17
  16
  15
  15
  14
  13
  9
  8
  7
  6
  6
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Acorda Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, identifies, develops, and commercializes novel therapies for neurological disorders in the United States. The company markets Ampyra (dalfampridine), an oral drug to improve walking in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS); Zanaflex Capsules and tablets for the management of spasticity; and Qutenza, a dermal patch for the management of neuropathic pain associated with post-herpetic neuralgia. It also markets Ampyra as Fampyra in Europe, Asia, and the Americas. In addition, the company develops CVT-301 that is in the Phase IIb clinical trial for the treatment of OFF periods in Parkinson’s disease; CVT-427, which has completed a Phase I clinical trial to treat migraine; and Ampyra/Dalfampridine that is in the Phase I pharmacokinetic studies for the treatment of chronic post-stroke deficits. Further, it develops Plumiaz, a proprietary nasal spray formulation of diazepam to treat people with epilepsy; Cimaglermin alfa/Neuregulins that has completed a Phase I clinical trial for the treatment of heart failure; Remyelinating Antibodies Program, which is in Phase I clinical trial for the treatment of MS; and Chondroitinase Program that is in research stage for the treatment of spinal cord injury. The company has collaborations and license agreements with Biogen International GmbH; Alkermes plc; Rush-Presbyterian St. Luke's Medical Center; Alkermes, Inc.; SK Biopharmaceuticals Co., Ltd.; Astellas Pharma Europe Ltd.; Canadian Spinal Research Organization; Cambridge Enterprise Limited and King's College London; Mayo Foundation for Education and Research; Paion AG; and Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Inc. Acorda Therapeutics, Inc. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Ardsley, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Acorda Therapeutics (ACOR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -21.5
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 21.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 26.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 159
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 48.8%
Total Debt to Equity 48.9%
Interest Coverage -6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -2.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Return On Total Capital -3.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.1%
Return On Equity -5.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 79%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 80.1%
EBITDA Margin -2.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Operating Margin -6.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Pre-Tax Margin -8.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Net Profit Margin -6.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0%
Effective Tax Rate 14.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

ACOR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ACOR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $520 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Acorda Therapeutics. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Acorda Therapeutics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ACOR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.2%, whose default value for ACOR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Acorda Therapeutics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Acorda Therapeutics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ACOR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ACOR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Acorda Therapeutics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Acorda Therapeutics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ACOR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ACOR are equal to 119.9%.

Life of production assets of 38.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Acorda Therapeutics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ACOR is equal to -6.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $664 million for Acorda Therapeutics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 36.432 million for Acorda Therapeutics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Acorda Therapeutics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Acorda Trims 20% Of Workforce, But Looming Cuts Could Be Deeper   [Apr-06-17 04:29PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Acorda, Forward, Biogen Fall On Multiple Sclerosis Drug Fight   [04:43PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Acorda Loses Multiple Sclerosis Drug Patents   [03:58PM  at Investopedia]
Stock chart of ACOR Financial statements of ACOR
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