Intrinsic value of Acxiom - ACXM

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$26.45

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ACXM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.53
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  880
  867
  887
  910
  935
  964
  995
  1,029
  1,065
  1,105
  1,147
  1,193
  1,241
  1,293
  1,347
  1,405
  1,467
  1,532
  1,601
  1,674
  1,751
  1,832
  1,918
  2,008
  2,103
  2,203
  2,309
  2,419
  2,536
  2,659
  2,788
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  480
  490
  501
  514
  528
  544
  561
  579
  598
  619
  593
  617
  642
  670
  699
  729
  762
  796
  832
  870
  911
  953
  998
  1,045
  1,095
  1,147
  1,202
  1,260
  1,322
  1,386
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  411
  421
  432
  443
  454
  465
  477
  489
  501
  513
  526
  539
  553
  567
  581
  595
  610
  625
  641
  657
  674
  690
  708
  725
  743
  762
  781
  801
  821
  841
Total operating expenses, $m
  865
  891
  911
  933
  957
  982
  1,009
  1,038
  1,068
  1,099
  1,132
  1,119
  1,156
  1,195
  1,237
  1,280
  1,324
  1,372
  1,421
  1,473
  1,527
  1,585
  1,643
  1,706
  1,770
  1,838
  1,909
  1,983
  2,061
  2,143
  2,227
Operating income, $m
  16
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -21
  -18
  -14
  -9
  -2
  6
  14
  74
  85
  97
  111
  126
  143
  161
  180
  201
  224
  248
  274
  302
  333
  365
  399
  436
  475
  517
  561
EBITDA, $m
  99
  56
  56
  58
  61
  65
  71
  77
  85
  94
  105
  116
  129
  143
  159
  176
  195
  215
  237
  261
  286
  313
  343
  374
  408
  443
  482
  522
  566
  612
  661
Interest expense (income), $m
  8
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
Earnings before tax, $m
  9
  -30
  -30
  -30
  -28
  -25
  -21
  -17
  -11
  -4
  5
  63
  74
  85
  98
  112
  128
  144
  163
  183
  204
  227
  252
  278
  307
  338
  370
  405
  443
  482
  525
Tax expense, $m
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  17
  20
  23
  26
  30
  34
  39
  44
  49
  55
  61
  68
  75
  83
  91
  100
  109
  119
  130
  142
Net income, $m
  4
  -30
  -30
  -30
  -28
  -25
  -21
  -17
  -11
  -4
  3
  46
  54
  62
  72
  82
  93
  105
  119
  133
  149
  166
  184
  203
  224
  246
  270
  296
  323
  352
  383

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  170
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,235
  980
  1,002
  1,028
  1,057
  1,089
  1,124
  1,162
  1,204
  1,248
  1,296
  1,348
  1,402
  1,461
  1,522
  1,588
  1,658
  1,731
  1,809
  1,892
  1,978
  2,070
  2,167
  2,269
  2,376
  2,489
  2,608
  2,734
  2,866
  3,005
  3,151
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,065
  980
  1,002
  1,028
  1,057
  1,089
  1,124
  1,162
  1,204
  1,248
  1,296
  1,348
  1,402
  1,461
  1,522
  1,588
  1,658
  1,731
  1,809
  1,892
  1,978
  2,070
  2,167
  2,269
  2,376
  2,489
  2,608
  2,734
  2,866
  3,005
  3,151
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.826
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.886
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
Average production assets, $m
  240
  278
  285
  292
  300
  309
  319
  330
  342
  355
  368
  383
  398
  415
  432
  451
  471
  492
  514
  537
  562
  588
  616
  645
  675
  707
  741
  777
  814
  854
  895
Working capital, $m
  139
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
Total debt, $m
  229
  166
  176
  187
  200
  214
  229
  246
  264
  283
  304
  327
  350
  376
  403
  431
  462
  494
  528
  564
  602
  642
  684
  728
  775
  824
  876
  931
  988
  1,049
  1,113
Total liabilities, $m
  496
  427
  437
  448
  461
  475
  490
  507
  525
  544
  565
  588
  611
  637
  664
  692
  723
  755
  789
  825
  863
  903
  945
  989
  1,036
  1,085
  1,137
  1,192
  1,249
  1,310
  1,374
Total equity, $m
  739
  553
  565
  580
  596
  614
  634
  656
  679
  704
  731
  760
  791
  824
  859
  896
  935
  976
  1,020
  1,067
  1,116
  1,168
  1,222
  1,280
  1,340
  1,404
  1,471
  1,542
  1,616
  1,695
  1,777
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,235
  980
  1,002
  1,028
  1,057
  1,089
  1,124
  1,163
  1,204
  1,248
  1,296
  1,348
  1,402
  1,461
  1,523
  1,588
  1,658
  1,731
  1,809
  1,892
  1,979
  2,071
  2,167
  2,269
  2,376
  2,489
  2,608
  2,734
  2,865
  3,005
  3,151
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.310
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.390
  0.400
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.534
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  4
  -30
  -30
  -30
  -28
  -25
  -21
  -17
  -11
  -4
  3
  46
  54
  62
  72
  82
  93
  105
  119
  133
  149
  166
  184
  203
  224
  246
  270
  296
  323
  352
  383
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  83
  80
  81
  82
  83
  84
  85
  86
  87
  89
  90
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
Funds from operations, $m
  102
  50
  51
  52
  55
  58
  63
  69
  77
  85
  94
  89
  98
  108
  120
  132
  145
  160
  176
  193
  211
  231
  252
  275
  299
  325
  353
  382
  414
  447
  482
Change in working capital, $m
  -14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  116
  46
  51
  52
  55
  59
  64
  70
  77
  85
  94
  89
  98
  109
  120
  132
  146
  161
  176
  193
  212
  232
  253
  276
  300
  326
  353
  383
  414
  448
  483
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
New CAPEX, $m
  -62
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -159
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -107
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -136
Free cash flow, $m
  -43
  10
  13
  13
  14
  16
  19
  23
  28
  35
  41
  33
  40
  48
  56
  66
  76
  87
  100
  113
  127
  143
  160
  178
  198
  219
  241
  265
  291
  318
  347
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  38
  8
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  26
  8
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -19
  18
  23
  24
  27
  30
  35
  40
  47
  54
  62
  56
  64
  73
  83
  94
  106
  119
  134
  149
  165
  183
  202
  223
  244
  268
  293
  320
  348
  378
  411
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -40
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  158
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  165
  11
  10
  10
  12
  15
  18
  23
  29
  35
  27
  33
  40
  48
  57
  67
  78
  90
  102
  116
  131
  148
  165
  184
  204
  226
  249
  274
  300
  328
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  158
  10
  9
  9
  9
  11
  12
  14
  17
  18
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  17
  17
  16
  15
  14
  12
  11
  9
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Acxiom Corporation operates as an enterprise data, analytics, and software-as-a-service company in the United States, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Connectivity, Audience Solutions, and Marketing Services. The Connectivity segment activates data and makes it portable across the open marketing ecosystem. This segmentÂ’s Data Onboarding service enables clients to activate offline data for use across their preferred marketing platforms for display, search, video, mobile, site optimization, data management, attribution, etc.; and LiveRamp Customer Link service offers customer data in a privacy-safe way. The Audience Solutions segment offers consumer demographics products, including InfoBase products to marketers with the ability to identify and reach the right audience with the right message across traditional and digital channels; and AbiliTec, which enables brands recognize individuals and households using various types of input variables and connect identities online and offline. The Marketing Services segment offers marketing database services, strategy and analytics, and Impact email and cross-channel data-driven marketing solutions. The company serves companies and organizations in the financial services, insurance, information services, direct marketing, retail, consumer packaged goods, technology, automotive, healthcare, travel, and communications industries, as well as in non-profit and government sectors. Acxiom Corporation was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Little Rock, Arkansas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Acxiom (ACXM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 513.6
Price to Sales 2.3
Price to Book 2.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 38
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 25.6%
Total Debt to Equity 31%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Return On Total Capital 0.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -0%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 45.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.3%
EBITDA Margin 11.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Operating Margin 1.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.1%
Net Profit Margin 0.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0%
Effective Tax Rate 55.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 48.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

ACXM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ACXM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $850 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Acxiom. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Acxiom. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ACXM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ACXM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Acxiom, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Acxiom.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ACXM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 55.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $401 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ACXM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Acxiom.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Acxiom. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ACXM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ACXM are equal to 32.1%.

Life of production assets of 9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Acxiom operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ACXM is equal to -0.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $699 million for Acxiom - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 76.286 million for Acxiom is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Acxiom at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.0 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Acxiom to Present at William Blair Growth Stock Conference   [Jun-01-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Acxiom Corp. : May 31, 2017   [May-31-17 12:18PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Acxiom to Present at Stephens Spring Investment Conference   [May-23-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Acxiom reports 4Q loss   [May-16-17 04:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ Meet the 130 Best Places to Work in the Bay Area 2017   [Apr-19-17 10:48AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ How Do You Measure Up To Other Taxpayers?   [Apr-17-17 07:57PM  Forbes]
▶ Acxiom and Viant Strengthen Partnership and Integration   [Mar-28-17 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Acxiom Announces Third Quarter Results   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Acxiom Expands Partnership with DataXu   [08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Acxiom to Discuss Third Quarter Earnings   [Jan-17-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Acxiom Announces Global Data Team   [Jan-09-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ LiveRamp Completes Acquisition of Arbor and Circulate   [Dec-07-16 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Is Acxiom Corporation (ACXM) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-03-16 08:30PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Acxiom Launches Facebook Partner Categories in Japan   [Dec-01-16 05:35PM  PR Newswire]
▶ LiveRamp Announces Acquisition of Arbor and Circulate   [Nov-17-16 04:05PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Acxiom Announces Second Quarter Results   [04:00PM  Business Wire]
Stock chart of ACXM Financial statements of ACXM Annual reports of ACXM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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