Intrinsic value of Aduro Biotech - ADRO

Previous Close

$10.75

  Intrinsic Value

$1.30

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-88%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$10.75

 
Intrinsic value

$1.30

 
Up/down potential

-88%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ADRO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -30.14
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  69
  72
  74
  78
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  139
  145
  152
  160
  167
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  62
  64
  65
  67
  69
  71
  74
  76
  79
  82
  84
  88
  92
  95
  100
  104
  109
  113
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  180
  188
  197
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  123
  62
  64
  65
  67
  69
  71
  74
  76
  79
  82
  84
  88
  92
  95
  100
  104
  109
  113
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  180
  188
  197
Operating income, $m
  -72
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
EBITDA, $m
  -69
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
Earnings before tax, $m
  -70
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
Tax expense, $m
  21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -91
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  347
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  439
  216
  221
  226
  233
  240
  248
  256
  265
  275
  286
  297
  309
  322
  335
  350
  365
  381
  399
  417
  436
  456
  477
  500
  524
  548
  575
  602
  631
  662
  694
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  92
  216
  221
  226
  233
  240
  248
  256
  265
  275
  286
  297
  309
  322
  335
  350
  365
  381
  399
  417
  436
  456
  477
  500
  524
  548
  575
  602
  631
  662
  694
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.554
  0.241
  0.240
  0.243
  0.240
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.240
  0.241
  0.242
  0.239
  0.242
  0.242
  0.240
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.240
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.240
  0.240
  0.241
  0.242
  0.241
  0.241
  0.242
  0.241
Average production assets, $m
  42
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  89
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
Working capital, $m
  324
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
Total debt, $m
  0
  -18
  -13
  -8
  -2
  4
  11
  18
  27
  36
  45
  55
  66
  78
  90
  103
  117
  131
  147
  163
  180
  199
  218
  238
  259
  282
  305
  330
  356
  384
  413
Total liabilities, $m
  211
  194
  199
  204
  210
  216
  223
  230
  239
  248
  257
  267
  278
  290
  302
  315
  329
  343
  359
  375
  392
  411
  430
  450
  471
  494
  517
  542
  568
  596
  625
Total equity, $m
  227
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  438
  216
  221
  227
  233
  240
  248
  256
  266
  276
  286
  297
  309
  322
  336
  350
  366
  381
  399
  417
  436
  457
  478
  500
  523
  549
  574
  602
  631
  662
  694
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  -0.820
  -0.600
  -0.360
  -0.100
  0.160
  0.440
  0.720
  1.010
  1.290
  1.580
  1.860
  2.140
  2.410
  2.680
  2.940
  3.200
  3.440
  3.680
  3.910
  4.140
  4.350
  4.560
  4.760
  4.950
  5.130
  5.310
  5.480
  5.640
  5.800
  5.950
Adjusted equity ratio
  -1.304
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -91
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
Funds from operations, $m
  -88
  -7
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  -86
  -7
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
New CAPEX, $m
  -24
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -33
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
Free cash flow, $m
  -119
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -18
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  38
  32
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  44
  47
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  43
  14
  14
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  54
  57
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -76
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  35
  -32
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  227
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  199
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  191
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  43.3
  37.4
  32.2
  27.7
  23.7
  20.2
  17.2
  14.6
  12.3
  10.5
  8.9
  7.5
  6.3
  5.3
  4.4
  3.7
  3.1
  2.6
  2.1
  1.8
  1.4
  1.2
  1.0
  0.8
  0.7
  0.5
  0.4
  0.4
  0.3

Aduro BioTech, Inc., a clinical-stage immunotherapy company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization that transform the treatment of challenging diseases. Its lead product candidate is CRS-207, an immuno-oncology therapy, which is in a Phase IIb clinical trial for the treatment of metastatic pancreatic cancer, unresectable malignant pleural mesothelioma, and ovarian cancer. The company also offers STING Pathway Activator product candidates that are synthetic small molecule immune modulators, which target and activate Stimulator of Interferon Genes receptor under collaboration with Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation; and develops monoclonal antibodies with the potential to yield immunotherapy. Aduro BioTech, Inc. also has a collaboration agreement with Janssen Biotech, Inc. to develop drugs for the treatment of prostate and lung cancers. The company was formerly known as Oncologic, Inc. and changed its name to Aduro BioTech, Inc. in June 2008. Aduro BioTech, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Berkeley, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Aduro Biotech (ADRO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -8
Price to Sales 14.3
Price to Book 3.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -8.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -6.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -30.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 1100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -19.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.2%
Return On Total Capital -37.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -35.8%
Return On Equity -37.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -35.8%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin -131.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -104.7%
Operating Margin -141.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -94.5%
Pre-Tax Margin -137.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -107.1%
Net Profit Margin -178.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -120.9%
Effective Tax Rate -30%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -10%
Payout Ratio 0%

ADRO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ADRO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $51 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Aduro Biotech. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Aduro Biotech. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ADRO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ADRO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Aduro Biotech, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Aduro Biotech.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ADRO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 119.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ADRO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Aduro Biotech.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Aduro Biotech. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ADRO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ADRO are equal to 81.4%.

Life of production assets of 16.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Aduro Biotech operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ADRO is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $227 million for Aduro Biotech - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 65.156 million for Aduro Biotech is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Aduro Biotech at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Aduro Biotech reports 2Q loss   [Aug-02-17 10:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ Aduro Biotech, Merck Team on Cancer Drug Trial   [May-17-17 03:18PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Aduro BioTech, Inc. : May 5, 2017   [May-05-17 03:46PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Aduro Biotech reports 1Q loss   [May-02-17 07:01PM  Associated Press]
▶ Aduro Biotech to Present at Two Investor Conferences in May   [Apr-25-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Aduro Biotech Announces Management Promotions   [Apr-20-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Aduro BioTech, Inc. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 04:14PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Is Aduro BioTech Inc (ADRO) A Good Stock To Buy?   [01:19AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Aduro Cancer Vaccine Emerges From FDA Hold (ADRO)   [Nov-24-16 07:45PM  at Investopedia]
▶ Aduro Cancer Study Put on Partial Hold (ADRO)   [Oct-25-16 12:31PM  at Investopedia]
▶ Aduro Biotech to Host Conference Call   [Oct-23-16 04:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
Stock chart of ADRO Financial statements of ADRO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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