Intrinsic value of Adams Resources&Energy - AE

Previous Close

$43.03

  Intrinsic Value

$15.96

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-63%

  Value-price divergence*

-54%

Previous close

$43.03

 
Intrinsic value

$15.96

 
Up/down potential

-63%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-54%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -43.42
  7.50
  7.25
  7.02
  6.82
  6.64
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
  5.78
  5.71
  5.64
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
  5.25
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
Revenue, $m
  1,100
  1,183
  1,268
  1,357
  1,450
  1,546
  1,646
  1,751
  1,859
  1,972
  2,090
  2,212
  2,340
  2,474
  2,613
  2,759
  2,911
  3,070
  3,236
  3,410
  3,592
  3,783
  3,982
  4,191
  4,410
  4,639
  4,880
  5,132
  5,396
  5,673
  5,963
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,185
  1,271
  1,360
  1,453
  1,549
  1,650
  1,754
  1,863
  1,976
  2,094
  2,217
  2,345
  2,479
  2,618
  2,764
  2,917
  3,076
  3,243
  3,417
  3,600
  3,790
  3,990
  4,200
  4,419
  4,649
  4,890
  5,142
  5,406
  5,684
  5,975
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,093
  1,185
  1,271
  1,360
  1,453
  1,549
  1,650
  1,754
  1,863
  1,976
  2,094
  2,217
  2,345
  2,479
  2,618
  2,764
  2,917
  3,076
  3,243
  3,417
  3,600
  3,790
  3,990
  4,200
  4,419
  4,649
  4,890
  5,142
  5,406
  5,684
  5,975
Operating income, $m
  6
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
EBITDA, $m
  25
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
Earnings before tax, $m
  7
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
Tax expense, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  3
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  87
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  247
  172
  184
  197
  211
  225
  239
  255
  270
  287
  304
  322
  340
  360
  380
  401
  423
  447
  471
  496
  523
  550
  579
  610
  641
  675
  710
  746
  785
  825
  867
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  160
  172
  184
  197
  211
  225
  239
  255
  270
  287
  304
  322
  340
  360
  380
  401
  423
  447
  471
  496
  523
  550
  579
  610
  641
  675
  710
  746
  785
  825
  867
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  6.875
  6.878
  6.891
  6.888
  6.872
  6.871
  6.887
  6.867
  6.885
  6.871
  6.875
  6.870
  6.882
  6.872
  6.876
  6.880
  6.882
  6.868
  6.870
  6.875
  6.868
  6.878
  6.877
  6.870
  6.880
  6.873
  6.873
  6.879
  6.874
  6.876
  6.878
Average production assets, $m
  53
  57
  61
  65
  70
  74
  79
  84
  89
  95
  100
  106
  112
  119
  125
  132
  140
  147
  155
  164
  172
  182
  191
  201
  212
  223
  234
  246
  259
  272
  286
Working capital, $m
  107
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  84
  88
  92
  97
  102
  107
Total debt, $m
  0
  7
  15
  22
  31
  39
  48
  57
  66
  76
  86
  97
  108
  120
  132
  145
  158
  172
  186
  202
  218
  234
  252
  270
  289
  309
  330
  352
  375
  399
  424
Total liabilities, $m
  96
  103
  111
  118
  127
  135
  144
  153
  162
  172
  182
  193
  204
  216
  228
  241
  254
  268
  282
  298
  314
  330
  348
  366
  385
  405
  426
  448
  471
  495
  520
Total equity, $m
  151
  69
  74
  79
  84
  90
  96
  102
  108
  115
  122
  129
  136
  144
  152
  161
  169
  179
  188
  198
  209
  220
  232
  244
  257
  270
  284
  299
  314
  330
  347
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  247
  172
  185
  197
  211
  225
  240
  255
  270
  287
  304
  322
  340
  360
  380
  402
  423
  447
  470
  496
  523
  550
  580
  610
  642
  675
  710
  747
  785
  825
  867
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.100
  0.200
  0.280
  0.360
  0.430
  0.500
  0.560
  0.610
  0.660
  0.710
  0.750
  0.790
  0.830
  0.870
  0.900
  0.930
  0.960
  0.990
  1.020
  1.040
  1.060
  1.090
  1.110
  1.130
  1.140
  1.160
  1.180
  1.190
  1.210
  1.220
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  3
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  19
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
Funds from operations, $m
  -6
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
Change in working capital, $m
  -13
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
Cash from operations, $m
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
New CAPEX, $m
  -8
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -8
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
Free cash flow, $m
  -1
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  41
  43
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  58
  61
  65
  68
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  2
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  87
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  87
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  84
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  91.5
  83.6
  76.4
  69.7
  63.6
  58.0
  52.8
  48.1
  43.8
  39.8
  36.2
  32.9
  29.9
  27.1
  24.6
  22.3
  20.3
  18.4
  16.6
  15.1
  13.6
  12.3
  11.2
  10.1
  9.1
  8.3
  7.5
  6.7
  6.1
  5.5

Adams Resources & Energy, Inc., along with its subsidiaries, is engaged in the business of crude oil marketing, tank truck transportation of liquid chemicals, and oil and gas exploration and production. The Company's segments include Marketing Segment, Transportation Segment, and Oil and Gas Segment. The Company manages its Marketing Segment through its subsidiary, Gulfmark Energy, Inc., which is engaged in marketing of crude oil. It operates approximately 210 tractor-trailer rigs and maintains over 120 pipeline inventory locations or injection stations. The Company operates its Transportation Segment, through Service Transport Company, which transports liquid chemicals. Its Service Transport Company subsidiary operates over 320 truck tractors, of which over 290 are Company-owned with over 30 independent owner-operator units. The Oil and Gas Segment operates through Adams Resources Exploration Corporation subsidiary, which explores and develops domestic oil and natural gas properties.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Adams Resources&Energy (AE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 60.5
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 25.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -181.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -43.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -27.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -22.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Return On Total Capital 2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Return On Equity 2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Asset Turnover 4.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 3.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
EBITDA Margin 2.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Operating Margin 0.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Net Profit Margin 0.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.1%
Effective Tax Rate 42.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 44.3%
Payout Ratio 133.3%

AE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1100 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Adams Resources&Energy. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Adams Resources&Energy. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Adams Resources&Energy, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Adams Resources&Energy.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 100.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Adams Resources&Energy.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Adams Resources&Energy. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AE are equal to 4.8%.

Life of production assets of 2.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Adams Resources&Energy operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AE is equal to 1.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $151 million for Adams Resources&Energy - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 4.217 million for Adams Resources&Energy is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Adams Resources&Energy at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Adams Resources reports 2Q loss   [Aug-08-17 11:35PM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] Adams Resources Wins Court Approval to Sell Assets   [Aug-04-17 02:01PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Adams Resources Announces Second Quarter 2017 Dividend   [May-10-17 04:41PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Adams Resources reports 1Q loss   [May-08-17 06:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] Adams Resources Files For Chapter 11 Protection   [Apr-21-17 05:20PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Houston company's upstream subsidiary to file Ch.11   [11:15AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Adams Resources reports 4Q loss   [Mar-15-17 07:25PM  Associated Press]
▶ Adams Resources posts 1Q profit   [May-06-16 04:53PM  AP]
▶ Adams Resources Announces First Quarter 2016 Dividend   [Feb-25-16 05:36PM  PR Newswire]
▶ 10-Q for Adams Resources & Energy, Inc.   [Aug-10  08:13PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-Q for Adams Resources & Energy, Inc.   [May-10  08:11PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-K for Adams Resources & Energy, Inc.   [May-05  08:12PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ Tennessee Titans CEO Tommy Smith retiring   [Mar-20  06:12PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Adams Resources Announces First Quarter 2015 Dividend   [Feb-24  05:23PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Walmart wage hike, and this CEO pigged out in Vegas   [Feb-19  10:58AM  Yahoo Finance]
Financial statements of AE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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