Intrinsic value of Advanced Energy Industries - AEIS

Previous Close

$77.53

  Intrinsic Value

$293.05

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+278%

Previous close

$77.53

 
Intrinsic value

$293.05

 
Up/down potential

+278%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of AEIS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  16.63
  39.40
  35.96
  32.86
  30.08
  27.57
  25.31
  23.28
  21.45
  19.81
  18.33
  16.99
  15.80
  14.72
  13.74
  12.87
  12.08
  11.37
  10.74
  10.16
  9.65
  9.18
  8.76
  8.39
  8.05
  7.74
  7.47
  7.22
  7.00
  6.80
  6.62
Revenue, $m
  484
  675
  917
  1,219
  1,585
  2,022
  2,534
  3,124
  3,795
  4,546
  5,380
  6,294
  7,288
  8,360
  9,510
  10,733
  12,030
  13,399
  14,837
  16,345
  17,922
  19,568
  21,282
  23,068
  24,924
  26,854
  28,860
  30,945
  33,111
  35,363
  37,704
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  478
  648
  860
  1,118
  1,425
  1,784
  2,199
  2,669
  3,197
  3,782
  4,420
  5,119
  5,872
  6,679
  7,538
  8,449
  9,410
  10,420
  11,480
  12,587
  13,743
  14,947
  16,201
  17,505
  18,860
  20,269
  21,733
  23,255
  24,836
  26,480
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
Total operating expenses, $m
  357
  491
  662
  874
  1,132
  1,440
  1,799
  2,214
  2,685
  3,213
  3,799
  4,437
  5,136
  5,890
  6,697
  7,557
  8,468
  9,430
  10,440
  11,501
  12,608
  13,765
  14,969
  16,224
  17,529
  18,884
  20,294
  21,758
  23,281
  24,863
  26,507
Operating income, $m
  127
  183
  255
  345
  453
  583
  735
  910
  1,110
  1,333
  1,581
  1,856
  2,152
  2,471
  2,812
  3,176
  3,562
  3,969
  4,396
  4,845
  5,314
  5,803
  6,313
  6,844
  7,396
  7,970
  8,566
  9,186
  9,830
  10,500
  11,196
EBITDA, $m
  135
  193
  267
  359
  471
  604
  760
  941
  1,145
  1,375
  1,629
  1,909
  2,213
  2,540
  2,891
  3,266
  3,662
  4,080
  4,520
  4,981
  5,463
  5,966
  6,490
  7,036
  7,603
  8,193
  8,806
  9,444
  10,106
  10,794
  11,510
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  2
  6
  10
  14
  20
  27
  34
  43
  53
  64
  76
  89
  103
  118
  134
  150
  168
  187
  207
  227
  249
  271
  294
  318
  344
  370
  397
  425
  454
Earnings before tax, $m
  128
  183
  253
  339
  444
  569
  715
  884
  1,075
  1,290
  1,528
  1,793
  2,076
  2,382
  2,710
  3,059
  3,428
  3,818
  4,228
  4,658
  5,107
  5,576
  6,064
  6,573
  7,102
  7,651
  8,223
  8,817
  9,434
  10,075
  10,742
Tax expense, $m
  11
  49
  68
  92
  120
  154
  193
  239
  290
  348
  412
  484
  561
  643
  732
  826
  926
  1,031
  1,142
  1,258
  1,379
  1,505
  1,637
  1,775
  1,917
  2,066
  2,220
  2,380
  2,547
  2,720
  2,900
Net income, $m
  127
  134
  184
  247
  324
  415
  522
  645
  785
  942
  1,115
  1,309
  1,516
  1,739
  1,978
  2,233
  2,503
  2,787
  3,087
  3,400
  3,728
  4,070
  4,427
  4,798
  5,184
  5,586
  6,003
  6,436
  6,887
  7,355
  7,842

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  287
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  572
  397
  540
  718
  934
  1,191
  1,493
  1,840
  2,235
  2,677
  3,168
  3,707
  4,292
  4,924
  5,600
  6,321
  7,085
  7,891
  8,738
  9,626
  10,555
  11,524
  12,534
  13,585
  14,679
  15,815
  16,997
  18,224
  19,500
  20,826
  22,205
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  285
  397
  540
  718
  934
  1,191
  1,493
  1,840
  2,235
  2,677
  3,168
  3,707
  4,292
  4,924
  5,600
  6,321
  7,085
  7,891
  8,738
  9,626
  10,555
  11,524
  12,534
  13,585
  14,679
  15,815
  16,997
  18,224
  19,500
  20,826
  22,205
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.698
  1.700
  1.698
  1.698
  1.697
  1.698
  1.697
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
Average production assets, $m
  43
  60
  82
  108
  141
  180
  226
  278
  338
  405
  479
  560
  649
  744
  846
  955
  1,071
  1,192
  1,321
  1,455
  1,595
  1,742
  1,894
  2,053
  2,218
  2,390
  2,569
  2,754
  2,947
  3,147
  3,356
Working capital, $m
  343
  78
  106
  141
  184
  235
  294
  362
  440
  527
  624
  730
  845
  970
  1,103
  1,245
  1,396
  1,554
  1,721
  1,896
  2,079
  2,270
  2,469
  2,676
  2,891
  3,115
  3,348
  3,590
  3,841
  4,102
  4,374
Total debt, $m
  0
  71
  161
  274
  410
  573
  763
  983
  1,232
  1,512
  1,822
  2,163
  2,533
  2,932
  3,359
  3,815
  4,298
  4,807
  5,342
  5,904
  6,491
  7,103
  7,741
  8,406
  9,097
  9,815
  10,562
  11,338
  12,144
  12,982
  13,853
Total liabilities, $m
  179
  251
  341
  454
  590
  753
  943
  1,163
  1,412
  1,692
  2,002
  2,343
  2,713
  3,112
  3,539
  3,995
  4,478
  4,987
  5,522
  6,084
  6,671
  7,283
  7,921
  8,586
  9,277
  9,995
  10,742
  11,518
  12,324
  13,162
  14,033
Total equity, $m
  392
  146
  199
  264
  344
  438
  549
  677
  822
  985
  1,166
  1,364
  1,579
  1,812
  2,061
  2,326
  2,607
  2,904
  3,216
  3,542
  3,884
  4,241
  4,612
  4,999
  5,402
  5,820
  6,255
  6,707
  7,176
  7,664
  8,171
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  571
  397
  540
  718
  934
  1,191
  1,492
  1,840
  2,234
  2,677
  3,168
  3,707
  4,292
  4,924
  5,600
  6,321
  7,085
  7,891
  8,738
  9,626
  10,555
  11,524
  12,533
  13,585
  14,679
  15,815
  16,997
  18,225
  19,500
  20,826
  22,204
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.490
  0.810
  1.040
  1.190
  1.310
  1.390
  1.450
  1.500
  1.530
  1.560
  1.590
  1.600
  1.620
  1.630
  1.640
  1.650
  1.660
  1.660
  1.670
  1.670
  1.670
  1.680
  1.680
  1.680
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.700
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  127
  134
  184
  247
  324
  415
  522
  645
  785
  942
  1,115
  1,309
  1,516
  1,739
  1,978
  2,233
  2,503
  2,787
  3,087
  3,400
  3,728
  4,070
  4,427
  4,798
  5,184
  5,586
  6,003
  6,436
  6,887
  7,355
  7,842
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  10
  12
  14
  17
  21
  25
  30
  36
  42
  49
  52
  61
  70
  79
  89
  100
  111
  123
  136
  149
  163
  177
  192
  207
  223
  240
  257
  275
  294
  314
Funds from operations, $m
  111
  144
  196
  262
  341
  436
  547
  675
  821
  984
  1,164
  1,361
  1,576
  1,809
  2,057
  2,322
  2,603
  2,899
  3,210
  3,536
  3,877
  4,233
  4,604
  4,990
  5,392
  5,809
  6,243
  6,693
  7,162
  7,649
  8,155
Change in working capital, $m
  -8
  22
  28
  35
  43
  51
  59
  68
  78
  87
  97
  106
  115
  124
  133
  142
  150
  159
  167
  175
  183
  191
  199
  207
  215
  224
  233
  242
  251
  261
  272
Cash from operations, $m
  119
  122
  168
  227
  299
  386
  488
  607
  743
  896
  1,067
  1,255
  1,461
  1,684
  1,924
  2,180
  2,452
  2,740
  3,043
  3,361
  3,694
  4,042
  4,405
  4,783
  5,176
  5,585
  6,010
  6,452
  6,911
  7,388
  7,884
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -13
  -17
  -21
  -26
  -32
  -38
  -45
  -52
  -61
  -70
  -79
  -89
  -100
  -111
  -123
  -136
  -149
  -163
  -177
  -192
  -207
  -223
  -240
  -257
  -275
  -294
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -17
  -22
  -27
  -33
  -39
  -46
  -53
  -60
  -67
  -74
  -81
  -88
  -95
  -102
  -109
  -115
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -159
  -165
  -172
  -179
  -186
  -193
  -200
  -208
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  -21
  -28
  -35
  -43
  -52
  -63
  -74
  -86
  -99
  -112
  -126
  -140
  -156
  -172
  -188
  -204
  -222
  -239
  -257
  -276
  -295
  -316
  -336
  -357
  -379
  -402
  -426
  -450
  -475
  -502
Free cash flow, $m
  119
  100
  141
  192
  256
  333
  426
  533
  657
  798
  955
  1,129
  1,320
  1,528
  1,752
  1,992
  2,248
  2,518
  2,804
  3,104
  3,418
  3,747
  4,090
  4,447
  4,819
  5,206
  5,608
  6,026
  6,460
  6,912
  7,381
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  71
  90
  112
  136
  163
  191
  220
  249
  280
  310
  340
  370
  399
  428
  456
  483
  509
  535
  561
  587
  613
  638
  664
  691
  718
  747
  776
  806
  838
  871
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  2
  71
  90
  112
  136
  163
  191
  220
  249
  280
  310
  340
  370
  399
  428
  456
  483
  509
  535
  561
  587
  613
  638
  664
  691
  718
  747
  776
  806
  838
  871
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  120
  172
  231
  305
  393
  496
  616
  753
  907
  1,078
  1,266
  1,469
  1,690
  1,927
  2,180
  2,448
  2,730
  3,028
  3,339
  3,665
  4,005
  4,359
  4,728
  5,111
  5,510
  5,924
  6,355
  6,802
  7,267
  7,750
  8,253
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -128
  -41
  -53
  -65
  -79
  -95
  -111
  -128
  -145
  -163
  -181
  -198
  -215
  -232
  -249
  -265
  -281
  -297
  -312
  -327
  -342
  -357
  -372
  -387
  -402
  -418
  -435
  -452
  -469
  -488
  -507
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  287
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  417
  179
  239
  313
  401
  505
  625
  761
  915
  1,085
  1,271
  1,475
  1,695
  1,931
  2,182
  2,449
  2,731
  3,027
  3,338
  3,663
  4,003
  4,356
  4,725
  5,108
  5,506
  5,920
  6,350
  6,797
  7,262
  7,745
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  400
  164
  208
  258
  311
  367
  422
  476
  525
  569
  604
  629
  644
  648
  641
  622
  594
  558
  514
  465
  414
  361
  310
  260
  214
  173
  136
  105
  79
  58
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. is a provider of engineered, precision power conversion, measurement and control solutions. The Company is engaged in designing, manufacturing, selling and supporting its power conversion products and solutions that transform power into various forms in various applications ranging from manufacturing and industrial processes to instrumentation, and test and measurement. It also provides repair and maintenance services for all of its products. Its process power systems include direct current (DC), pulsed DC, low frequency, high voltage, and radio frequency (RF) power supplies, matching networks, remote plasma sources for reactive gas applications and RF instrumentation. These power conversion systems refine, modify and control the raw electrical power from a utility and convert it into power that may be customized and is predictable and repeatable. Its power control modules and thermal instrumentation products are used in the semiconductor industry.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Advanced Energy Industries (AEIS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 24.2
Price to Sales 6.4
Price to Book 7.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 25.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 27.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 16.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 75%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 18.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 24.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Return On Total Capital 38.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Return On Equity 38.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 52.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 51.9%
EBITDA Margin 28.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.2%
Operating Margin 26.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 26.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.1%
Net Profit Margin 26.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Effective Tax Rate 8.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

AEIS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AEIS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $484 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Advanced Energy Industries. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Advanced Energy Industries. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AEIS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 39.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AEIS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Advanced Energy Industries, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Advanced Energy Industries.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AEIS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 71.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $13 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AEIS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Advanced Energy Industries.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Advanced Energy Industries. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AEIS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AEIS are equal to 8.9%.

Life of production assets of 10.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Advanced Energy Industries operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AEIS is equal to 11.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $392 million for Advanced Energy Industries - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 40.456 million for Advanced Energy Industries is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Advanced Energy Industries at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.1 billion.

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Financial statements of AEIS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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