Intrinsic value of Agnico-Eagle Mines - AEM

Previous Close

$46.70

  Intrinsic Value

$4.26

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-91%

  Value-price divergence*

-16%

Previous close

$46.70

 
Intrinsic value

$4.26

 
Up/down potential

-91%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-16%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AEM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 10.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.71
  11.40
  10.76
  10.18
  9.67
  9.20
  8.78
  8.40
  8.06
  7.75
  7.48
  7.23
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.46
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.86
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
Revenue, $m
  2,138
  2,382
  2,638
  2,907
  3,188
  3,481
  3,786
  4,105
  4,435
  4,779
  5,137
  5,508
  5,894
  6,296
  6,713
  7,147
  7,598
  8,068
  8,558
  9,068
  9,600
  10,154
  10,733
  11,337
  11,969
  12,628
  13,318
  14,039
  14,793
  15,582
  16,408
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,183
  2,411
  2,649
  2,898
  3,159
  3,430
  3,712
  4,006
  4,311
  4,628
  4,888
  5,231
  5,587
  5,957
  6,342
  6,743
  7,160
  7,594
  8,047
  8,519
  9,011
  9,525
  10,061
  10,621
  11,206
  11,818
  12,458
  13,127
  13,827
  14,560
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,779
  2,183
  2,411
  2,649
  2,898
  3,159
  3,430
  3,712
  4,006
  4,311
  4,628
  4,888
  5,231
  5,587
  5,957
  6,342
  6,743
  7,160
  7,594
  8,047
  8,519
  9,011
  9,525
  10,061
  10,621
  11,206
  11,818
  12,458
  13,127
  13,827
  14,560
Operating income, $m
  360
  198
  227
  258
  289
  322
  357
  392
  430
  468
  509
  620
  664
  709
  756
  805
  856
  908
  964
  1,021
  1,081
  1,143
  1,209
  1,277
  1,348
  1,422
  1,500
  1,581
  1,666
  1,755
  1,848
EBITDA, $m
  973
  836
  926
  1,020
  1,119
  1,222
  1,329
  1,441
  1,557
  1,678
  1,803
  1,933
  2,069
  2,210
  2,356
  2,509
  2,667
  2,832
  3,004
  3,183
  3,369
  3,564
  3,767
  3,979
  4,201
  4,433
  4,675
  4,928
  5,192
  5,469
  5,759
Interest expense (income), $m
  71
  64
  81
  99
  118
  137
  158
  179
  201
  224
  248
  273
  299
  326
  354
  383
  413
  444
  477
  511
  547
  584
  622
  663
  705
  749
  795
  843
  893
  945
  1,000
Earnings before tax, $m
  268
  134
  146
  158
  171
  185
  199
  213
  229
  244
  261
  347
  365
  383
  402
  422
  443
  464
  486
  510
  534
  560
  586
  614
  643
  673
  705
  738
  773
  809
  847
Tax expense, $m
  109
  36
  39
  43
  46
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  94
  98
  103
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  138
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  190
  199
  209
  219
  229
Net income, $m
  159
  98
  107
  116
  125
  135
  145
  156
  167
  178
  190
  253
  266
  280
  294
  308
  323
  339
  355
  372
  390
  409
  428
  448
  469
  492
  515
  539
  564
  591
  619

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  641
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,108
  7,196
  7,970
  8,781
  9,630
  10,516
  11,439
  12,400
  13,400
  14,439
  15,519
  16,641
  17,808
  19,020
  20,280
  21,591
  22,955
  24,375
  25,854
  27,395
  29,002
  30,678
  32,427
  34,252
  36,159
  38,152
  40,235
  42,413
  44,691
  47,075
  49,571
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,467
  7,196
  7,970
  8,781
  9,630
  10,516
  11,439
  12,400
  13,400
  14,439
  15,519
  16,641
  17,808
  19,020
  20,280
  21,591
  22,955
  24,375
  25,854
  27,395
  29,002
  30,678
  32,427
  34,252
  36,159
  38,152
  40,235
  42,413
  44,691
  47,075
  49,571
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
Average production assets, $m
  5,098
  5,678
  6,289
  6,929
  7,599
  8,298
  9,027
  9,785
  10,574
  11,394
  12,246
  13,132
  14,052
  15,009
  16,003
  17,038
  18,114
  19,235
  20,402
  21,618
  22,886
  24,208
  25,588
  27,029
  28,533
  30,106
  31,749
  33,468
  35,266
  37,147
  39,117
Working capital, $m
  806
  333
  369
  407
  446
  487
  530
  575
  621
  669
  719
  771
  825
  881
  940
  1,001
  1,064
  1,130
  1,198
  1,270
  1,344
  1,422
  1,503
  1,587
  1,676
  1,768
  1,864
  1,965
  2,071
  2,181
  2,297
Total debt, $m
  1,208
  1,355
  1,652
  1,964
  2,290
  2,630
  2,985
  3,354
  3,738
  4,137
  4,551
  4,982
  5,430
  5,896
  6,380
  6,883
  7,407
  7,952
  8,520
  9,112
  9,729
  10,372
  11,044
  11,745
  12,477
  13,242
  14,042
  14,878
  15,753
  16,669
  17,627
Total liabilities, $m
  2,615
  2,763
  3,060
  3,372
  3,698
  4,038
  4,393
  4,762
  5,146
  5,545
  5,959
  6,390
  6,838
  7,304
  7,788
  8,291
  8,815
  9,360
  9,928
  10,520
  11,137
  11,780
  12,452
  13,153
  13,885
  14,650
  15,450
  16,286
  17,161
  18,077
  19,035
Total equity, $m
  4,492
  4,432
  4,909
  5,409
  5,932
  6,478
  7,047
  7,639
  8,254
  8,895
  9,560
  10,251
  10,970
  11,716
  12,493
  13,300
  14,141
  15,015
  15,926
  16,876
  17,865
  18,898
  19,975
  21,099
  22,274
  23,501
  24,785
  26,126
  27,530
  28,998
  30,536
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,107
  7,195
  7,969
  8,781
  9,630
  10,516
  11,440
  12,401
  13,400
  14,440
  15,519
  16,641
  17,808
  19,020
  20,281
  21,591
  22,956
  24,375
  25,854
  27,396
  29,002
  30,678
  32,427
  34,252
  36,159
  38,151
  40,235
  42,412
  44,691
  47,075
  49,571
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.269
  0.310
  0.340
  0.360
  0.390
  0.410
  0.420
  0.440
  0.450
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
  0.540
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.580
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.595
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  159
  98
  107
  116
  125
  135
  145
  156
  167
  178
  190
  253
  266
  280
  294
  308
  323
  339
  355
  372
  390
  409
  428
  448
  469
  492
  515
  539
  564
  591
  619
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  613
  638
  699
  763
  830
  900
  972
  1,048
  1,127
  1,209
  1,294
  1,313
  1,405
  1,501
  1,600
  1,704
  1,811
  1,923
  2,040
  2,162
  2,289
  2,421
  2,559
  2,703
  2,853
  3,011
  3,175
  3,347
  3,527
  3,715
  3,912
Funds from operations, $m
  843
  735
  805
  878
  955
  1,034
  1,118
  1,204
  1,294
  1,387
  1,484
  1,567
  1,671
  1,781
  1,894
  2,012
  2,135
  2,262
  2,395
  2,534
  2,679
  2,829
  2,987
  3,151
  3,323
  3,502
  3,690
  3,886
  4,091
  4,306
  4,530
Change in working capital, $m
  64
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  110
  116
Cash from operations, $m
  779
  701
  769
  841
  915
  993
  1,075
  1,159
  1,248
  1,339
  1,434
  1,515
  1,617
  1,724
  1,835
  1,951
  2,071
  2,196
  2,327
  2,463
  2,604
  2,752
  2,906
  3,066
  3,234
  3,410
  3,593
  3,785
  3,985
  4,195
  4,415
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -510
  -568
  -629
  -693
  -760
  -830
  -903
  -979
  -1,057
  -1,139
  -1,225
  -1,313
  -1,405
  -1,501
  -1,600
  -1,704
  -1,811
  -1,923
  -2,040
  -2,162
  -2,289
  -2,421
  -2,559
  -2,703
  -2,853
  -3,011
  -3,175
  -3,347
  -3,527
  -3,715
New CAPEX, $m
  -516
  -581
  -611
  -640
  -670
  -699
  -729
  -758
  -789
  -820
  -852
  -886
  -920
  -957
  -995
  -1,034
  -1,076
  -1,121
  -1,167
  -1,216
  -1,268
  -1,322
  -1,380
  -1,441
  -1,505
  -1,572
  -1,644
  -1,719
  -1,798
  -1,881
  -1,969
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -553
  -1,091
  -1,179
  -1,269
  -1,363
  -1,459
  -1,559
  -1,661
  -1,768
  -1,877
  -1,991
  -2,111
  -2,233
  -2,362
  -2,496
  -2,634
  -2,780
  -2,932
  -3,090
  -3,256
  -3,430
  -3,611
  -3,801
  -4,000
  -4,208
  -4,425
  -4,655
  -4,894
  -5,145
  -5,408
  -5,684
Free cash flow, $m
  226
  -389
  -409
  -429
  -447
  -466
  -484
  -502
  -520
  -538
  -557
  -596
  -616
  -637
  -660
  -684
  -709
  -736
  -764
  -794
  -825
  -859
  -895
  -933
  -973
  -1,016
  -1,061
  -1,109
  -1,159
  -1,213
  -1,269
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  56
  282
  297
  312
  326
  340
  355
  369
  384
  399
  415
  431
  448
  466
  484
  503
  524
  545
  568
  592
  617
  643
  672
  701
  732
  765
  800
  836
  875
  916
  958
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  206
  349
  370
  384
  398
  411
  424
  436
  449
  462
  475
  438
  452
  467
  483
  500
  517
  536
  556
  577
  600
  624
  649
  676
  705
  736
  768
  803
  839
  878
  919
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  261
  631
  667
  696
  724
  751
  779
  805
  833
  861
  890
  869
  900
  933
  967
  1,003
  1,041
  1,081
  1,124
  1,169
  1,217
  1,267
  1,321
  1,377
  1,437
  1,501
  1,568
  1,639
  1,714
  1,794
  1,877
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  487
  242
  258
  267
  276
  285
  294
  304
  313
  323
  333
  273
  284
  295
  307
  319
  332
  346
  360
  375
  391
  408
  426
  444
  464
  485
  507
  530
  555
  580
  608
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -351
  -446
  -477
  -500
  -523
  -546
  -569
  -592
  -616
  -640
  -665
  -691
  -718
  -747
  -776
  -808
  -840
  -875
  -911
  -949
  -990
  -1,032
  -1,077
  -1,125
  -1,175
  -1,227
  -1,283
  -1,342
  -1,404
  -1,469
  -1,537
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  506
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  301
  -219
  -233
  -246
  -260
  -274
  -288
  -303
  -317
  -333
  -418
  -434
  -452
  -470
  -488
  -508
  -529
  -551
  -574
  -599
  -624
  -651
  -680
  -710
  -742
  -776
  -811
  -849
  -888
  -930
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  289
  -200
  -202
  -203
  -202
  -199
  -195
  -189
  -182
  -174
  -199
  -185
  -172
  -158
  -143
  -129
  -115
  -101
  -88
  -76
  -65
  -54
  -45
  -36
  -29
  -23
  -17
  -13
  -10
  -7
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  96.4
  93.0
  90.0
  87.2
  84.7
  82.4
  80.2
  78.2
  76.4
  74.7
  73.2
  71.9
  70.6
  69.3
  68.1
  67.0
  65.9
  64.9
  63.9
  62.9
  62.0
  61.1
  60.2
  59.4
  58.5
  57.7
  56.9
  56.1
  55.4
  54.6

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited engages in the exploration, development, and production of mineral properties in Canada, Finland, and Mexico. It operates through three segments: Northern Business, Southern Business, and Exploration. The company primarily produces and sells gold, as well as explores for silver, zinc, and copper. Its flagship property is the LaRonde mine located in the Abitibi region of northwestern Quebec, Canada. As of December, 31, 2015, the LaRonde mine had a proven and probable mineral reserve of approximately 3.1 million ounces. The company has exploration activities in Canada, the European Union, Latin America, and the United States. Agnico Eagle Mines Limited was founded in 1953 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 66.1
Price to Sales 4.9
Price to Book 2.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 39.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 14.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 5
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 23.9%
Total Debt to Equity 26.9%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Return On Total Capital 2.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Return On Equity 3.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 51.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.5%
EBITDA Margin 44.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.8%
Operating Margin 16.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Net Profit Margin 7.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Effective Tax Rate 40.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.5%
Payout Ratio 44.7%

AEM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AEM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2138 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Agnico-Eagle Mines. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Agnico-Eagle Mines. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AEM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AEM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Agnico-Eagle Mines, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Agnico-Eagle Mines.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AEM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AEM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6% for Agnico-Eagle Mines.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Agnico-Eagle Mines. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AEM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AEM are equal to 238.4%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Agnico-Eagle Mines operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AEM is equal to 14%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4492 million for Agnico-Eagle Mines - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 222.986 million for Agnico-Eagle Mines is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Agnico-Eagle Mines at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $10.4 billion.

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IAG IAMGOLD 5.64 1.22  str.sell
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Stock chart of AEM Financial statements of AEM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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