Intrinsic value of Agnico-Eagle Mines - AEM

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$43.48

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$43.48

 
Intrinsic value

$4.19

 
Up/down potential

-90%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AEM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 9.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.71
  3.30
  3.47
  3.62
  3.76
  3.88
  4.00
  4.10
  4.19
  4.27
  4.34
  4.41
  4.47
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.72
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
Revenue, $m
  2,138
  2,209
  2,285
  2,368
  2,457
  2,552
  2,654
  2,763
  2,879
  3,002
  3,132
  3,270
  3,416
  3,571
  3,734
  3,906
  4,088
  4,279
  4,481
  4,693
  4,917
  5,153
  5,401
  5,662
  5,937
  6,225
  6,529
  6,848
  7,184
  7,537
  7,908
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,030
  2,098
  2,171
  2,250
  2,335
  2,425
  2,522
  2,624
  2,733
  2,849
  2,902
  3,032
  3,169
  3,313
  3,466
  3,627
  3,797
  3,976
  4,165
  4,364
  4,573
  4,793
  5,025
  5,268
  5,524
  5,794
  6,077
  6,375
  6,688
  7,017
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,779
  2,030
  2,098
  2,171
  2,250
  2,335
  2,425
  2,522
  2,624
  2,733
  2,849
  2,902
  3,032
  3,169
  3,313
  3,466
  3,627
  3,797
  3,976
  4,165
  4,364
  4,573
  4,793
  5,025
  5,268
  5,524
  5,794
  6,077
  6,375
  6,688
  7,017
Operating income, $m
  360
  179
  188
  197
  207
  218
  229
  241
  254
  268
  283
  368
  385
  402
  420
  440
  460
  482
  505
  528
  554
  580
  608
  638
  668
  701
  735
  771
  809
  849
  890
EBITDA, $m
  973
  803
  831
  861
  893
  928
  965
  1,005
  1,047
  1,091
  1,139
  1,189
  1,242
  1,298
  1,357
  1,420
  1,486
  1,556
  1,629
  1,706
  1,788
  1,873
  1,964
  2,058
  2,158
  2,263
  2,374
  2,490
  2,612
  2,740
  2,875
Interest expense (income), $m
  71
  64
  69
  75
  80
  87
  93
  100
  108
  116
  124
  134
  143
  153
  164
  175
  187
  200
  213
  227
  242
  258
  274
  291
  310
  329
  349
  370
  392
  416
  440
Earnings before tax, $m
  268
  115
  118
  122
  127
  131
  136
  141
  147
  152
  159
  235
  242
  249
  256
  264
  273
  282
  291
  301
  311
  322
  334
  346
  359
  372
  386
  401
  417
  433
  450
Tax expense, $m
  109
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  63
  65
  67
  69
  71
  74
  76
  79
  81
  84
  87
  90
  93
  97
  101
  104
  108
  113
  117
  122
Net income, $m
  159
  84
  86
  89
  92
  96
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  171
  176
  182
  187
  193
  199
  206
  213
  220
  227
  235
  244
  253
  262
  272
  282
  293
  304
  316
  329

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  641
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,108
  6,672
  6,904
  7,154
  7,423
  7,711
  8,020
  8,348
  8,698
  9,069
  9,463
  9,880
  10,321
  10,787
  11,280
  11,800
  12,349
  12,928
  13,537
  14,180
  14,856
  15,568
  16,318
  17,106
  17,936
  18,808
  19,726
  20,690
  21,704
  22,770
  23,890
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,467
  6,672
  6,904
  7,154
  7,423
  7,711
  8,020
  8,348
  8,698
  9,069
  9,463
  9,880
  10,321
  10,787
  11,280
  11,800
  12,349
  12,928
  13,537
  14,180
  14,856
  15,568
  16,318
  17,106
  17,936
  18,808
  19,726
  20,690
  21,704
  22,770
  23,890
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
Average production assets, $m
  5,098
  5,265
  5,448
  5,645
  5,858
  6,085
  6,328
  6,588
  6,863
  7,156
  7,467
  7,796
  8,144
  8,512
  8,901
  9,312
  9,745
  10,201
  10,682
  11,189
  11,723
  12,285
  12,876
  13,499
  14,153
  14,842
  15,566
  16,327
  17,127
  17,968
  18,852
Working capital, $m
  806
  309
  320
  332
  344
  357
  372
  387
  403
  420
  438
  458
  478
  500
  523
  547
  572
  599
  627
  657
  688
  721
  756
  793
  831
  872
  914
  959
  1,006
  1,055
  1,107
Total debt, $m
  1,208
  1,154
  1,243
  1,339
  1,442
  1,553
  1,672
  1,798
  1,932
  2,074
  2,226
  2,386
  2,555
  2,734
  2,924
  3,123
  3,334
  3,556
  3,790
  4,037
  4,297
  4,570
  4,858
  5,161
  5,479
  5,814
  6,167
  6,537
  6,926
  7,336
  7,766
Total liabilities, $m
  2,615
  2,562
  2,651
  2,747
  2,850
  2,961
  3,080
  3,206
  3,340
  3,482
  3,634
  3,794
  3,963
  4,142
  4,332
  4,531
  4,742
  4,964
  5,198
  5,445
  5,705
  5,978
  6,266
  6,569
  6,887
  7,222
  7,575
  7,945
  8,334
  8,744
  9,174
Total equity, $m
  4,492
  4,110
  4,253
  4,407
  4,573
  4,750
  4,940
  5,142
  5,358
  5,586
  5,829
  6,086
  6,358
  6,645
  6,949
  7,269
  7,607
  7,963
  8,339
  8,735
  9,151
  9,590
  10,052
  10,537
  11,048
  11,586
  12,151
  12,745
  13,370
  14,026
  14,716
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,107
  6,672
  6,904
  7,154
  7,423
  7,711
  8,020
  8,348
  8,698
  9,068
  9,463
  9,880
  10,321
  10,787
  11,281
  11,800
  12,349
  12,927
  13,537
  14,180
  14,856
  15,568
  16,318
  17,106
  17,935
  18,808
  19,726
  20,690
  21,704
  22,770
  23,890
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.269
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.520
  0.520
  0.530
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.595
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  159
  84
  86
  89
  92
  96
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  171
  176
  182
  187
  193
  199
  206
  213
  220
  227
  235
  244
  253
  262
  272
  282
  293
  304
  316
  329
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  613
  624
  643
  664
  686
  710
  736
  763
  792
  823
  856
  821
  857
  896
  937
  980
  1,026
  1,074
  1,124
  1,178
  1,234
  1,293
  1,355
  1,421
  1,490
  1,562
  1,638
  1,719
  1,803
  1,891
  1,984
Funds from operations, $m
  843
  708
  730
  753
  779
  806
  835
  866
  899
  934
  971
  992
  1,034
  1,078
  1,124
  1,173
  1,225
  1,280
  1,337
  1,398
  1,461
  1,529
  1,599
  1,674
  1,752
  1,834
  1,920
  2,011
  2,107
  2,208
  2,313
Change in working capital, $m
  64
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
Cash from operations, $m
  779
  706
  719
  742
  766
  793
  821
  851
  883
  917
  953
  973
  1,013
  1,056
  1,101
  1,149
  1,200
  1,253
  1,309
  1,368
  1,430
  1,496
  1,564
  1,637
  1,713
  1,794
  1,878
  1,967
  2,060
  2,158
  2,261
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -537
  -554
  -573
  -594
  -617
  -641
  -666
  -693
  -722
  -753
  -786
  -821
  -857
  -896
  -937
  -980
  -1,026
  -1,074
  -1,124
  -1,178
  -1,234
  -1,293
  -1,355
  -1,421
  -1,490
  -1,562
  -1,638
  -1,719
  -1,803
  -1,891
New CAPEX, $m
  -516
  -168
  -183
  -197
  -212
  -228
  -243
  -259
  -276
  -293
  -311
  -329
  -348
  -368
  -389
  -410
  -433
  -457
  -481
  -507
  -534
  -562
  -591
  -622
  -655
  -688
  -724
  -761
  -800
  -841
  -884
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -553
  -705
  -737
  -770
  -806
  -845
  -884
  -925
  -969
  -1,015
  -1,064
  -1,115
  -1,169
  -1,225
  -1,285
  -1,347
  -1,413
  -1,483
  -1,555
  -1,631
  -1,712
  -1,796
  -1,884
  -1,977
  -2,076
  -2,178
  -2,286
  -2,399
  -2,519
  -2,644
  -2,775
Free cash flow, $m
  226
  2
  -18
  -29
  -40
  -52
  -63
  -74
  -86
  -98
  -111
  -142
  -156
  -169
  -184
  -198
  -214
  -230
  -246
  -263
  -282
  -300
  -320
  -341
  -362
  -385
  -408
  -433
  -459
  -486
  -514
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  56
  81
  89
  96
  103
  111
  118
  126
  134
  143
  151
  160
  169
  179
  189
  200
  211
  222
  234
  247
  260
  273
  288
  303
  319
  335
  352
  370
  389
  409
  430
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  206
  0
  72
  87
  103
  118
  134
  151
  167
  184
  202
  239
  258
  278
  298
  319
  341
  364
  388
  413
  438
  466
  494
  524
  555
  587
  621
  657
  694
  733
  774
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  261
  81
  161
  183
  206
  229
  252
  277
  301
  327
  353
  399
  427
  457
  487
  519
  552
  586
  622
  660
  698
  739
  782
  827
  874
  922
  973
  1,027
  1,083
  1,142
  1,204
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  487
  83
  71
  67
  63
  59
  55
  52
  48
  44
  40
  18
  14
  10
  6
  1
  -3
  -7
  -12
  -17
  -22
  -27
  -32
  -38
  -44
  -50
  -56
  -63
  -69
  -77
  -84
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -351
  -124
  -143
  -154
  -166
  -178
  -190
  -202
  -215
  -229
  -243
  -257
  -272
  -287
  -304
  -320
  -338
  -356
  -376
  -396
  -417
  -439
  -462
  -486
  -511
  -537
  -565
  -594
  -625
  -657
  -690
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  506
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  465
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  446
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  99.2
  98.3
  97.3
  96.1
  94.9
  93.6
  92.2
  90.8
  89.3
  87.7
  86.0
  84.3
  82.6
  81.0
  79.3
  77.6
  75.9
  74.2
  72.5
  70.9
  69.3
  67.7
  66.1
  64.5
  63.0
  61.5
  60.0
  58.5
  57.1

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited engages in the exploration, development, and production of mineral properties in Canada, Finland, and Mexico. It operates through three segments: Northern Business, Southern Business, and Exploration. The company primarily produces and sells gold, as well as explores for silver, zinc, and copper. Its flagship property is the LaRonde mine located in the Abitibi region of northwestern Quebec, Canada. As of December, 31, 2015, the LaRonde mine had a proven and probable mineral reserve of approximately 3.1 million ounces. The company has exploration activities in Canada, the European Union, Latin America, and the United States. Agnico Eagle Mines Limited was founded in 1953 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 61.5
Price to Sales 4.6
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 37.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 14.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 5
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 23.9%
Total Debt to Equity 26.9%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Return On Total Capital 2.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Return On Equity 3.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 51.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.5%
EBITDA Margin 44.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.8%
Operating Margin 16.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Net Profit Margin 7.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Effective Tax Rate 40.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.5%
Payout Ratio 44.7%

AEM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AEM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2138 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Agnico-Eagle Mines. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Agnico-Eagle Mines. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AEM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AEM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Agnico-Eagle Mines, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Agnico-Eagle Mines.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AEM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AEM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6% for Agnico-Eagle Mines.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Agnico-Eagle Mines. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AEM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AEM are equal to 238.4%.

Life of production assets of 9.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Agnico-Eagle Mines operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AEM is equal to 14%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4492 million for Agnico-Eagle Mines - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 226.437 million for Agnico-Eagle Mines is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Agnico-Eagle Mines at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $9.8 billion.


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Stock chart of AEM Financial statements of AEM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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