Intrinsic value of American Eagle Outfitters - AEO

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$14.09

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$14.09

 
Intrinsic value

$19.25

 
Up/down potential

+37%

 
Rating

buy

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AEO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.50
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  3,610
  3,682
  3,767
  3,864
  3,972
  4,093
  4,225
  4,369
  4,525
  4,692
  4,872
  5,065
  5,271
  5,490
  5,722
  5,969
  6,231
  6,508
  6,800
  7,110
  7,436
  7,781
  8,145
  8,528
  8,931
  9,357
  9,804
  10,276
  10,771
  11,293
  11,842
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,181
  3,255
  3,338
  3,432
  3,536
  3,650
  3,774
  3,909
  4,054
  4,209
  4,374
  4,552
  4,741
  4,942
  5,155
  5,381
  5,620
  5,873
  6,140
  6,422
  6,720
  7,034
  7,364
  7,713
  8,080
  8,467
  8,874
  9,302
  9,753
  10,226
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  168
  172
  177
  181
  186
  190
  195
  200
  205
  210
  215
  221
  226
  232
  238
  243
  250
  256
  262
  269
  275
  282
  289
  297
  304
  312
  319
  327
  336
  344
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,278
  3,349
  3,427
  3,515
  3,613
  3,722
  3,840
  3,969
  4,109
  4,259
  4,419
  4,589
  4,773
  4,967
  5,174
  5,393
  5,624
  5,870
  6,129
  6,402
  6,691
  6,995
  7,316
  7,653
  8,010
  8,384
  8,779
  9,193
  9,629
  10,089
  10,570
Operating income, $m
  331
  333
  340
  349
  359
  371
  385
  400
  416
  434
  453
  476
  498
  523
  549
  577
  606
  638
  672
  708
  746
  786
  829
  874
  922
  972
  1,026
  1,082
  1,142
  1,205
  1,271
EBITDA, $m
  489
  488
  499
  512
  527
  544
  563
  584
  607
  631
  658
  688
  719
  752
  788
  826
  867
  910
  956
  1,005
  1,057
  1,111
  1,169
  1,230
  1,295
  1,363
  1,436
  1,512
  1,592
  1,677
  1,766
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
Earnings before tax, $m
  335
  333
  340
  348
  358
  369
  382
  396
  412
  429
  447
  469
  490
  513
  538
  565
  593
  623
  656
  690
  726
  765
  805
  848
  894
  942
  994
  1,048
  1,105
  1,165
  1,228
Tax expense, $m
  123
  90
  92
  94
  97
  100
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  127
  132
  139
  145
  153
  160
  168
  177
  186
  196
  206
  217
  229
  241
  254
  268
  283
  298
  314
  332
Net income, $m
  212
  243
  248
  254
  261
  270
  279
  289
  300
  313
  326
  342
  358
  375
  393
  412
  433
  455
  479
  504
  530
  558
  588
  619
  653
  688
  725
  765
  806
  850
  897

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  379
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,783
  1,432
  1,465
  1,503
  1,545
  1,592
  1,643
  1,699
  1,760
  1,825
  1,895
  1,970
  2,050
  2,135
  2,226
  2,322
  2,423
  2,531
  2,645
  2,765
  2,892
  3,026
  3,168
  3,317
  3,474
  3,639
  3,813
  3,997
  4,190
  4,392
  4,606
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,404
  1,432
  1,465
  1,503
  1,545
  1,592
  1,643
  1,699
  1,760
  1,825
  1,895
  1,970
  2,050
  2,135
  2,226
  2,322
  2,423
  2,531
  2,645
  2,765
  2,892
  3,026
  3,168
  3,317
  3,474
  3,639
  3,813
  3,997
  4,190
  4,392
  4,606
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.571
  2.571
  2.571
  2.571
  2.571
  2.571
  2.572
  2.572
  2.571
  2.571
  2.571
  2.571
  2.571
  2.571
  2.571
  2.571
  2.572
  2.571
  2.571
  2.571
  2.571
  2.571
  2.571
  2.571
  2.571
  2.571
  2.571
  2.571
  2.571
  2.571
  2.571
Average production assets, $m
  756
  770
  787
  808
  830
  855
  883
  913
  946
  981
  1,018
  1,059
  1,102
  1,147
  1,196
  1,248
  1,302
  1,360
  1,421
  1,486
  1,554
  1,626
  1,702
  1,782
  1,867
  1,956
  2,049
  2,148
  2,251
  2,360
  2,475
Working capital, $m
  407
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
Total debt, $m
  0
  12
  26
  41
  59
  78
  99
  122
  147
  174
  203
  234
  267
  302
  339
  379
  420
  465
  512
  561
  614
  669
  727
  789
  853
  921
  993
  1,069
  1,148
  1,232
  1,320
Total liabilities, $m
  578
  590
  604
  619
  637
  656
  677
  700
  725
  752
  781
  812
  845
  880
  917
  957
  998
  1,043
  1,090
  1,139
  1,192
  1,247
  1,305
  1,367
  1,431
  1,499
  1,571
  1,647
  1,726
  1,810
  1,898
Total equity, $m
  1,205
  842
  862
  884
  909
  936
  966
  999
  1,035
  1,073
  1,114
  1,158
  1,205
  1,255
  1,309
  1,365
  1,425
  1,488
  1,555
  1,626
  1,701
  1,780
  1,863
  1,950
  2,043
  2,140
  2,242
  2,350
  2,463
  2,583
  2,708
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,783
  1,432
  1,466
  1,503
  1,546
  1,592
  1,643
  1,699
  1,760
  1,825
  1,895
  1,970
  2,050
  2,135
  2,226
  2,322
  2,423
  2,531
  2,645
  2,765
  2,893
  3,027
  3,168
  3,317
  3,474
  3,639
  3,813
  3,997
  4,189
  4,393
  4,606
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.010
  0.030
  0.050
  0.060
  0.080
  0.100
  0.120
  0.140
  0.160
  0.180
  0.200
  0.220
  0.240
  0.260
  0.280
  0.300
  0.310
  0.330
  0.350
  0.360
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  212
  243
  248
  254
  261
  270
  279
  289
  300
  313
  326
  342
  358
  375
  393
  412
  433
  455
  479
  504
  530
  558
  588
  619
  653
  688
  725
  765
  806
  850
  897
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  158
  155
  159
  163
  168
  173
  178
  184
  191
  198
  205
  212
  220
  229
  239
  250
  260
  272
  284
  297
  311
  325
  340
  356
  373
  391
  410
  430
  450
  472
  495
Funds from operations, $m
  297
  398
  407
  417
  429
  442
  457
  473
  491
  511
  532
  554
  578
  604
  632
  662
  694
  727
  763
  801
  841
  883
  928
  976
  1,026
  1,079
  1,135
  1,194
  1,257
  1,322
  1,392
Change in working capital, $m
  -69
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
Cash from operations, $m
  366
  398
  406
  416
  428
  441
  456
  472
  490
  509
  530
  552
  577
  603
  630
  660
  691
  725
  761
  798
  838
  881
  925
  973
  1,023
  1,076
  1,132
  1,190
  1,253
  1,318
  1,387
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -151
  -154
  -157
  -162
  -166
  -171
  -177
  -183
  -189
  -196
  -204
  -212
  -220
  -229
  -239
  -250
  -260
  -272
  -284
  -297
  -311
  -325
  -340
  -356
  -373
  -391
  -410
  -430
  -450
  -472
New CAPEX, $m
  -163
  -14
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -104
  -109
  -115
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -163
  -165
  -172
  -177
  -185
  -191
  -199
  -207
  -216
  -224
  -234
  -244
  -255
  -266
  -278
  -291
  -305
  -318
  -333
  -349
  -365
  -383
  -401
  -420
  -440
  -462
  -485
  -508
  -534
  -559
  -587
Free cash flow, $m
  203
  233
  235
  239
  244
  250
  257
  265
  275
  285
  296
  308
  322
  336
  352
  369
  387
  407
  427
  449
  473
  498
  524
  552
  582
  614
  647
  682
  719
  759
  801
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -4
  12
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  44
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  79
  84
  88
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  6
  12
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  44
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  79
  84
  88
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  210
  245
  248
  254
  261
  269
  278
  288
  300
  312
  325
  339
  355
  372
  389
  409
  429
  451
  474
  499
  525
  553
  582
  614
  647
  682
  719
  758
  799
  842
  888
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -154
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  379
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  608
  229
  232
  236
  242
  248
  256
  264
  274
  284
  295
  308
  321
  336
  352
  369
  388
  407
  428
  450
  474
  499
  526
  554
  584
  616
  650
  686
  723
  763
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  583
  209
  202
  195
  187
  180
  173
  165
  157
  149
  140
  131
  122
  113
  103
  94
  84
  75
  66
  57
  49
  41
  34
  28
  23
  18
  14
  11
  8
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer offering on-trend clothing, accessories, and personal care products under the American Eagle Outfitters and Aerie brands. The company provides denim, bottoms, and other apparel, as well as footwear and accessories for men and women; and intimates, including bras, undies, swim, and other products, as well as apparel and personal care products for women. In addition, it offers sports apparel under the Tailgate brand; and menswear products under the Todd Snyder New York brand name. The company operates approximately 1,000 stores in the United States, Canada, Mexico, China, Hong Kong, and the United Kingdom, and ships to 81 countries through its websites. It also offers its merchandise at 151 stores operated by licensees in 22 countries, as well as through its Websites at ae.com, aerie.com, TailgateClothing.com, and ToddSnyder.com. American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 12.1
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 2.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 4.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -11.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 336
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 12.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Return On Total Capital 18.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
Return On Equity 18.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
Asset Turnover 2.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 37.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.7%
EBITDA Margin 13.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.1%
Operating Margin 9.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Net Profit Margin 5.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Effective Tax Rate 36.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.3%
Payout Ratio 42.9%

AEO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AEO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3610 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by American Eagle Outfitters. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of American Eagle Outfitters. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AEO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AEO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of American Eagle Outfitters, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of American Eagle Outfitters.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AEO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $164 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AEO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for American Eagle Outfitters.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for American Eagle Outfitters. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AEO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AEO are equal to 20.9%.

Life of production assets of 4.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in American Eagle Outfitters operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AEO is equal to 0.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1205 million for American Eagle Outfitters - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 178.19 million for American Eagle Outfitters is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of American Eagle Outfitters at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.5 billion.


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Stock chart of AEO Financial statements of AEO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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