Intrinsic value of Assured Guaranty - AGO

Previous Close

$37.07

  Intrinsic Value

$85.38

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+130%

  Value-price divergence*

-151%

Previous close

$37.07

 
Intrinsic value

$85.38

 
Up/down potential

+130%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

-151%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as AGO.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AGO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -23.34
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  0
  1,763
  1,803
  1,849
  1,901
  1,959
  2,022
  2,091
  2,166
  2,246
  2,332
  2,425
  2,523
  2,628
  2,739
  2,857
  2,982
  3,115
  3,255
  3,403
  3,560
  3,725
  3,899
  4,082
  4,275
  4,479
  4,693
  4,919
  5,156
  5,406
  5,668
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  379
  388
  398
  409
  421
  435
  450
  466
  483
  501
  521
  542
  565
  589
  614
  641
  670
  700
  732
  765
  801
  838
  878
  919
  963
  1,009
  1,058
  1,109
  1,162
  1,219
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  250
  256
  263
  269
  276
  283
  290
  297
  305
  312
  320
  328
  336
  345
  353
  362
  371
  381
  390
  400
  410
  420
  431
  441
  452
  464
  475
  487
  499
  512
Total operating expenses, $m
  609
  629
  644
  661
  678
  697
  718
  740
  763
  788
  813
  841
  870
  901
  934
  967
  1,003
  1,041
  1,081
  1,122
  1,165
  1,211
  1,258
  1,309
  1,360
  1,415
  1,473
  1,533
  1,596
  1,661
  1,731
Operating income, $m
  1,119
  1,134
  1,159
  1,189
  1,223
  1,262
  1,305
  1,352
  1,403
  1,458
  1,519
  1,583
  1,652
  1,726
  1,805
  1,890
  1,979
  2,074
  2,175
  2,281
  2,394
  2,514
  2,640
  2,774
  2,915
  3,063
  3,220
  3,386
  3,560
  3,744
  3,938
EBITDA, $m
  1,119
  1,134
  1,159
  1,189
  1,223
  1,262
  1,305
  1,352
  1,403
  1,458
  1,519
  1,583
  1,652
  1,726
  1,805
  1,890
  1,979
  2,074
  2,175
  2,281
  2,394
  2,514
  2,640
  2,774
  2,915
  3,063
  3,220
  3,386
  3,560
  3,744
  3,938
Interest expense (income), $m
  95
  95
  107
  120
  135
  151
  170
  191
  213
  237
  263
  291
  321
  352
  386
  422
  460
  501
  544
  589
  637
  687
  741
  797
  856
  919
  984
  1,054
  1,126
  1,203
  1,284
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,017
  1,038
  1,052
  1,069
  1,089
  1,110
  1,134
  1,161
  1,190
  1,222
  1,256
  1,292
  1,332
  1,374
  1,419
  1,467
  1,519
  1,573
  1,631
  1,693
  1,758
  1,827
  1,900
  1,977
  2,059
  2,145
  2,236
  2,332
  2,434
  2,541
  2,654
Tax expense, $m
  136
  280
  284
  289
  294
  300
  306
  313
  321
  330
  339
  349
  360
  371
  383
  396
  410
  425
  440
  457
  475
  493
  513
  534
  556
  579
  604
  630
  657
  686
  717
Net income, $m
  881
  758
  768
  781
  795
  811
  828
  848
  869
  892
  917
  943
  972
  1,003
  1,036
  1,071
  1,109
  1,148
  1,191
  1,236
  1,283
  1,334
  1,387
  1,443
  1,503
  1,566
  1,632
  1,703
  1,777
  1,855
  1,937

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  14,151
  14,447
  14,779
  15,159
  15,586
  16,058
  16,577
  17,141
  17,752
  18,411
  19,117
  19,873
  20,680
  21,539
  22,451
  23,420
  24,446
  25,532
  26,681
  27,895
  29,177
  30,529
  31,956
  33,459
  35,043
  36,711
  38,468
  40,317
  42,262
  44,309
  46,462
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  14,151
  14,447
  14,779
  15,159
  15,586
  16,058
  16,577
  17,141
  17,752
  18,411
  19,117
  19,873
  20,680
  21,539
  22,451
  23,420
  24,446
  25,532
  26,681
  27,895
  29,177
  30,529
  31,956
  33,459
  35,043
  36,711
  38,468
  40,317
  42,262
  44,309
  46,462
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  1,306
  1,460
  1,640
  1,845
  2,075
  2,330
  2,610
  2,915
  3,245
  3,601
  3,982
  4,391
  4,826
  5,290
  5,783
  6,306
  6,860
  7,447
  8,067
  8,722
  9,415
  10,145
  10,915
  11,727
  12,582
  13,483
  14,432
  15,430
  16,481
  17,586
  18,748
Total liabilities, $m
  7,647
  7,801
  7,981
  8,186
  8,416
  8,671
  8,951
  9,256
  9,586
  9,942
  10,323
  10,732
  11,167
  11,631
  12,124
  12,647
  13,201
  13,788
  14,408
  15,063
  15,756
  16,486
  17,256
  18,068
  18,923
  19,824
  20,773
  21,771
  22,822
  23,927
  25,089
Total equity, $m
  6,504
  6,646
  6,799
  6,973
  7,169
  7,387
  7,625
  7,885
  8,166
  8,469
  8,794
  9,142
  9,513
  9,908
  10,328
  10,773
  11,245
  11,745
  12,273
  12,832
  13,421
  14,044
  14,700
  15,391
  16,120
  16,887
  17,695
  18,546
  19,441
  20,382
  21,372
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  14,151
  14,447
  14,780
  15,159
  15,585
  16,058
  16,576
  17,141
  17,752
  18,411
  19,117
  19,874
  20,680
  21,539
  22,452
  23,420
  24,446
  25,533
  26,681
  27,895
  29,177
  30,530
  31,956
  33,459
  35,043
  36,711
  38,468
  40,317
  42,263
  44,309
  46,461
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.201
  0.220
  0.240
  0.260
  0.290
  0.320
  0.340
  0.370
  0.400
  0.430
  0.450
  0.480
  0.510
  0.530
  0.560
  0.590
  0.610
  0.630
  0.660
  0.680
  0.700
  0.720
  0.740
  0.760
  0.780
  0.800
  0.820
  0.830
  0.850
  0.860
  0.880
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  881
  758
  768
  781
  795
  811
  828
  848
  869
  892
  917
  943
  972
  1,003
  1,036
  1,071
  1,109
  1,148
  1,191
  1,236
  1,283
  1,334
  1,387
  1,443
  1,503
  1,566
  1,632
  1,703
  1,777
  1,855
  1,937
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  -928
  758
  768
  781
  795
  811
  828
  848
  869
  892
  917
  943
  972
  1,003
  1,036
  1,071
  1,109
  1,148
  1,191
  1,236
  1,283
  1,334
  1,387
  1,443
  1,503
  1,566
  1,632
  1,703
  1,777
  1,855
  1,937
Change in working capital, $m
  -787
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  -141
  758
  768
  781
  795
  811
  828
  848
  869
  892
  917
  943
  972
  1,003
  1,036
  1,071
  1,109
  1,148
  1,191
  1,236
  1,283
  1,334
  1,387
  1,443
  1,503
  1,566
  1,632
  1,703
  1,777
  1,855
  1,937
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  1,076
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  935
  758
  768
  781
  795
  811
  828
  848
  869
  892
  917
  943
  972
  1,003
  1,036
  1,071
  1,109
  1,148
  1,191
  1,236
  1,283
  1,334
  1,387
  1,443
  1,503
  1,566
  1,632
  1,703
  1,777
  1,855
  1,937
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -2
  154
  179
  205
  230
  255
  280
  305
  330
  356
  382
  408
  436
  464
  493
  523
  554
  587
  620
  656
  692
  730
  770
  812
  855
  901
  949
  998
  1,051
  1,105
  1,163
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -306
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -909
  154
  179
  205
  230
  255
  280
  305
  330
  356
  382
  408
  436
  464
  493
  523
  554
  587
  620
  656
  692
  730
  770
  812
  855
  901
  949
  998
  1,051
  1,105
  1,163
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  21
  912
  948
  986
  1,025
  1,066
  1,108
  1,152
  1,199
  1,247
  1,298
  1,352
  1,408
  1,467
  1,529
  1,594
  1,663
  1,735
  1,811
  1,891
  1,975
  2,064
  2,157
  2,255
  2,358
  2,467
  2,581
  2,701
  2,827
  2,960
  3,100
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -441
  -142
  -153
  -175
  -196
  -217
  -238
  -260
  -281
  -303
  -325
  -348
  -371
  -395
  -420
  -445
  -472
  -500
  -528
  -558
  -590
  -622
  -656
  -692
  -729
  -767
  -808
  -850
  -895
  -942
  -990
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  771
  795
  811
  829
  848
  870
  893
  918
  944
  973
  1,004
  1,037
  1,072
  1,109
  1,149
  1,191
  1,235
  1,283
  1,333
  1,386
  1,442
  1,501
  1,563
  1,630
  1,699
  1,773
  1,851
  1,932
  2,019
  2,110
Discount rate, %
 
  4.40
  4.62
  4.85
  5.09
  5.35
  5.62
  5.90
  6.19
  6.50
  6.83
  7.17
  7.53
  7.90
  8.30
  8.71
  9.15
  9.60
  10.08
  10.59
  11.12
  11.67
  12.26
  12.87
  13.51
  14.19
  14.90
  15.64
  16.43
  17.25
  18.11
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  738
  726
  704
  679
  654
  627
  598
  567
  536
  503
  469
  434
  399
  363
  328
  293
  260
  228
  197
  168
  142
  118
  97
  78
  62
  48
  37
  27
  20
  14
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Assured Guaranty Ltd. is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to the United States and international public finance, including infrastructure, and structured finance markets. It applies its credit underwriting judgment, risk management skills and capital markets experience primarily to offer financial guaranty insurance that protects holders of debt instruments and other monetary obligations from defaults in scheduled payments. It markets its financial guaranty insurance directly to issuers and underwriters of public finance and structured finance securities, as well as to investors in such obligations. It guarantees obligations issued principally in the United States and the United Kingdom and also guarantees obligations issued in other countries and regions, including Australia and Western Europe. It also provides other forms of insurance that are in line with its risk profile and benefit from its underwriting experience.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Assured Guaranty (AGO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 5.4
Price to Sales 2.7
Price to Book 0.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -33.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -33.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -23.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 20.1%
Total Debt to Equity 20.1%
Interest Coverage 12
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Return On Total Capital 11.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.3%
Return On Equity 14%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.3%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 64.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 70.1%
Operating Margin 64.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 70.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 58.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 65.4%
Net Profit Margin 51%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 50.1%
Effective Tax Rate 13.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.8%
Payout Ratio 7.8%

AGO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AGO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1728 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Assured Guaranty. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Assured Guaranty. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AGO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.4%, whose default value for AGO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Assured Guaranty, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Assured Guaranty.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AGO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 21.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $244 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AGO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.3% for Assured Guaranty.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Assured Guaranty. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AGO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AGO are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Assured Guaranty operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AGO is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $6504 million for Assured Guaranty - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 118.779 million for Assured Guaranty is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Assured Guaranty at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.4 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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Financial statements of AGO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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