Intrinsic value of Alliance Holdings GP - AHGP

Previous Close

$25.90

  Intrinsic Value

$73.01

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+182%

  Value-price divergence*

-141%

Previous close

$25.90

 
Intrinsic value

$73.01

 
Up/down potential

+182%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

-141%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AHGP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -15.05
  11.60
  10.94
  10.35
  9.81
  9.33
  8.90
  8.51
  8.16
  7.84
  7.56
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.68
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.35
  5.31
Revenue, $m
  1,931
  2,155
  2,391
  2,638
  2,897
  3,167
  3,449
  3,742
  4,048
  4,365
  4,695
  5,038
  5,394
  5,764
  6,149
  6,549
  6,966
  7,399
  7,851
  8,321
  8,811
  9,323
  9,856
  10,413
  10,995
  11,602
  12,237
  12,901
  13,596
  14,323
  15,083
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,791
  1,986
  2,190
  2,403
  2,626
  2,859
  3,101
  3,353
  3,615
  3,887
  4,156
  4,450
  4,755
  5,073
  5,403
  5,747
  6,104
  6,477
  6,865
  7,269
  7,691
  8,131
  8,590
  9,070
  9,571
  10,095
  10,643
  11,216
  11,816
  12,443
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,568
  1,791
  1,986
  2,190
  2,403
  2,626
  2,859
  3,101
  3,353
  3,615
  3,887
  4,156
  4,450
  4,755
  5,073
  5,403
  5,747
  6,104
  6,477
  6,865
  7,269
  7,691
  8,131
  8,590
  9,070
  9,571
  10,095
  10,643
  11,216
  11,816
  12,443
Operating income, $m
  363
  364
  405
  448
  493
  541
  590
  641
  695
  750
  808
  882
  944
  1,009
  1,076
  1,146
  1,219
  1,295
  1,374
  1,457
  1,542
  1,632
  1,725
  1,823
  1,925
  2,031
  2,142
  2,258
  2,380
  2,507
  2,640
EBITDA, $m
  686
  569
  631
  696
  765
  836
  910
  988
  1,068
  1,152
  1,239
  1,330
  1,424
  1,521
  1,623
  1,729
  1,839
  1,953
  2,072
  2,196
  2,326
  2,461
  2,601
  2,748
  2,902
  3,062
  3,230
  3,405
  3,589
  3,780
  3,981
Interest expense (income), $m
  29
  23
  30
  37
  44
  52
  60
  69
  77
  87
  96
  106
  116
  127
  138
  150
  162
  174
  188
  201
  215
  230
  245
  261
  278
  296
  314
  333
  353
  374
  396
Earnings before tax, $m
  337
  341
  375
  411
  449
  489
  530
  573
  618
  664
  712
  776
  828
  882
  938
  997
  1,057
  1,121
  1,187
  1,255
  1,327
  1,402
  1,480
  1,561
  1,646
  1,735
  1,828
  1,925
  2,027
  2,133
  2,244
Tax expense, $m
  0
  92
  101
  111
  121
  132
  143
  155
  167
  179
  192
  209
  224
  238
  253
  269
  286
  303
  320
  339
  358
  378
  400
  422
  444
  468
  494
  520
  547
  576
  606
Net income, $m
  186
  249
  274
  300
  328
  357
  387
  418
  451
  485
  520
  566
  604
  644
  685
  727
  772
  818
  866
  916
  969
  1,023
  1,080
  1,140
  1,202
  1,267
  1,334
  1,405
  1,479
  1,557
  1,638

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  45
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,198
  2,402
  2,665
  2,941
  3,230
  3,531
  3,845
  4,172
  4,512
  4,866
  5,234
  5,616
  6,013
  6,426
  6,855
  7,301
  7,766
  8,249
  8,752
  9,277
  9,823
  10,393
  10,988
  11,609
  12,257
  12,934
  13,642
  14,383
  15,157
  15,967
  16,815
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,153
  2,402
  2,665
  2,941
  3,230
  3,531
  3,845
  4,172
  4,512
  4,866
  5,234
  5,616
  6,013
  6,426
  6,855
  7,301
  7,766
  8,249
  8,752
  9,277
  9,823
  10,393
  10,988
  11,609
  12,257
  12,934
  13,642
  14,383
  15,157
  15,967
  16,815
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
Average production assets, $m
  1,717
  1,916
  2,125
  2,345
  2,575
  2,816
  3,066
  3,327
  3,598
  3,881
  4,174
  4,479
  4,795
  5,124
  5,467
  5,822
  6,193
  6,578
  6,979
  7,397
  7,833
  8,288
  8,762
  9,257
  9,774
  10,314
  10,879
  11,469
  12,087
  12,733
  13,409
Working capital, $m
  -46
  97
  108
  119
  130
  143
  155
  168
  182
  196
  211
  227
  243
  259
  277
  295
  313
  333
  353
  374
  397
  420
  444
  469
  495
  522
  551
  581
  612
  645
  679
Total debt, $m
  662
  800
  992
  1,193
  1,404
  1,624
  1,853
  2,092
  2,340
  2,598
  2,867
  3,146
  3,436
  3,737
  4,050
  4,376
  4,715
  5,068
  5,435
  5,818
  6,217
  6,633
  7,067
  7,520
  7,994
  8,488
  9,005
  9,545
  10,111
  10,702
  11,321
Total liabilities, $m
  1,616
  1,754
  1,946
  2,147
  2,358
  2,578
  2,807
  3,046
  3,294
  3,552
  3,821
  4,100
  4,390
  4,691
  5,004
  5,330
  5,669
  6,022
  6,389
  6,772
  7,171
  7,587
  8,021
  8,474
  8,948
  9,442
  9,959
  10,499
  11,065
  11,656
  12,275
Total equity, $m
  582
  649
  720
  794
  872
  953
  1,038
  1,126
  1,218
  1,314
  1,413
  1,516
  1,624
  1,735
  1,851
  1,971
  2,097
  2,227
  2,363
  2,505
  2,652
  2,806
  2,967
  3,134
  3,309
  3,492
  3,683
  3,883
  4,092
  4,311
  4,540
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,198
  2,403
  2,666
  2,941
  3,230
  3,531
  3,845
  4,172
  4,512
  4,866
  5,234
  5,616
  6,014
  6,426
  6,855
  7,301
  7,766
  8,249
  8,752
  9,277
  9,823
  10,393
  10,988
  11,608
  12,257
  12,934
  13,642
  14,382
  15,157
  15,967
  16,815
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.137
  1.230
  1.380
  1.500
  1.610
  1.700
  1.780
  1.860
  1.920
  1.980
  2.030
  2.070
  2.120
  2.150
  2.190
  2.220
  2.250
  2.280
  2.300
  2.320
  2.340
  2.360
  2.380
  2.400
  2.420
  2.430
  2.440
  2.460
  2.470
  2.480
  2.490
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.249
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  186
  249
  274
  300
  328
  357
  387
  418
  451
  485
  520
  566
  604
  644
  685
  727
  772
  818
  866
  916
  969
  1,023
  1,080
  1,140
  1,202
  1,267
  1,334
  1,405
  1,479
  1,557
  1,638
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  323
  205
  226
  248
  271
  295
  320
  346
  373
  402
  431
  448
  480
  512
  547
  582
  619
  658
  698
  740
  783
  829
  876
  926
  977
  1,031
  1,088
  1,147
  1,209
  1,273
  1,341
Funds from operations, $m
  727
  454
  500
  549
  599
  652
  707
  765
  824
  886
  951
  1,014
  1,084
  1,156
  1,231
  1,310
  1,391
  1,476
  1,564
  1,656
  1,752
  1,852
  1,956
  2,065
  2,179
  2,298
  2,422
  2,552
  2,688
  2,830
  2,979
Change in working capital, $m
  26
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
Cash from operations, $m
  701
  444
  489
  537
  588
  640
  694
  751
  811
  872
  936
  999
  1,068
  1,140
  1,214
  1,292
  1,372
  1,456
  1,544
  1,635
  1,730
  1,829
  1,932
  2,040
  2,153
  2,271
  2,394
  2,522
  2,657
  2,798
  2,945
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -172
  -192
  -213
  -235
  -258
  -282
  -307
  -333
  -360
  -388
  -417
  -448
  -480
  -512
  -547
  -582
  -619
  -658
  -698
  -740
  -783
  -829
  -876
  -926
  -977
  -1,031
  -1,088
  -1,147
  -1,209
  -1,273
New CAPEX, $m
  -91
  -199
  -210
  -220
  -230
  -240
  -251
  -261
  -271
  -282
  -293
  -305
  -317
  -329
  -342
  -356
  -370
  -385
  -401
  -418
  -436
  -455
  -474
  -495
  -517
  -540
  -565
  -590
  -617
  -646
  -676
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -192
  -371
  -402
  -433
  -465
  -498
  -533
  -568
  -604
  -642
  -681
  -722
  -765
  -809
  -854
  -903
  -952
  -1,004
  -1,059
  -1,116
  -1,176
  -1,238
  -1,303
  -1,371
  -1,443
  -1,517
  -1,596
  -1,678
  -1,764
  -1,855
  -1,949
Free cash flow, $m
  509
  73
  88
  105
  123
  142
  162
  184
  206
  230
  255
  277
  303
  331
  360
  389
  420
  452
  485
  519
  554
  591
  629
  669
  710
  753
  798
  844
  892
  943
  995
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -260
  183
  192
  201
  211
  220
  229
  239
  248
  258
  268
  279
  290
  301
  313
  326
  339
  353
  367
  383
  399
  416
  434
  453
  473
  494
  517
  540
  565
  591
  619
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -347
  183
  192
  201
  211
  220
  229
  239
  248
  258
  268
  279
  290
  301
  313
  326
  339
  353
  367
  383
  399
  416
  434
  453
  473
  494
  517
  540
  565
  591
  619
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  162
  256
  280
  306
  334
  362
  392
  423
  455
  488
  523
  556
  593
  632
  673
  715
  759
  805
  852
  902
  953
  1,007
  1,064
  1,122
  1,184
  1,248
  1,315
  1,385
  1,458
  1,534
  1,615
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -30
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -161
  -168
  -175
  -183
  -191
  -200
  -209
  -219
  -229
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  190
  209
  232
  256
  281
  307
  334
  363
  393
  424
  452
  486
  521
  557
  594
  634
  674
  716
  760
  806
  853
  903
  955
  1,009
  1,065
  1,123
  1,185
  1,249
  1,316
  1,386
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  182
  192
  202
  210
  218
  223
  226
  227
  226
  222
  215
  207
  198
  187
  175
  161
  147
  132
  117
  102
  88
  75
  63
  51
  41
  33
  25
  19
  14
  10
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Alliance Holdings GP, L.P. and subsidiaries, produces and markets coal primarily to utilities and industrial users in the United States. The company engages in the production of a range of steam coal with varying sulfur and heat contents. It operates 10 underground mining complexes in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, and West Virginia. The company also leases land; and operates a coal loading terminal with a capacity of 8.0 million tons with ground storage of approximately 60,000 to 70,000 tons on the Ohio River at Mt. Vernon, Indiana. In addition, it provides designs systems for automating and controlling various aspects of industrial and mining environments; and designs and sells mine safety equipment comprising its miner and equipment tracking and proximity detection systems. At December 31, 2015, the company had approximately 1.8 billion tons of proven and probable coal reserves. Alliance GP, LLC serves as the general partner of the company. Alliance Holdings GP, L.P. was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Alliance Holdings GP (AHGP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 8.3
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 2.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 2.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -15%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -57.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -22.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 83.3%
Total Debt to Equity 113.7%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Return On Total Capital 13.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.3%
Return On Equity 32.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 41.4%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 39.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.7%
EBITDA Margin 35.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.3%
Operating Margin 18.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 17.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.4%
Net Profit Margin 9.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 83.9%

AHGP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AHGP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1931 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Alliance Holdings GP. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Alliance Holdings GP. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AHGP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AHGP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Alliance Holdings GP, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Alliance Holdings GP.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AHGP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AHGP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.7% for Alliance Holdings GP.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Alliance Holdings GP. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AHGP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AHGP are equal to 88.9%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Alliance Holdings GP operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AHGP is equal to 4.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $582 million for Alliance Holdings GP - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 57.659 million for Alliance Holdings GP is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Alliance Holdings GP at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.5 billion.

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Stock chart of AHGP Financial statements of AHGP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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