Intrinsic value of Alliance Holdings GP - AHGP

Previous Close

$24.90

  Intrinsic Value

$49.86

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+100%

Previous close

$24.90

 
Intrinsic value

$49.86

 
Up/down potential

+100%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of AHGP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -15.05
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,931
  1,970
  2,015
  2,067
  2,125
  2,189
  2,260
  2,337
  2,420
  2,510
  2,606
  2,709
  2,819
  2,936
  3,061
  3,193
  3,333
  3,481
  3,638
  3,803
  3,978
  4,162
  4,357
  4,562
  4,777
  5,005
  5,244
  5,496
  5,762
  6,041
  6,334
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,638
  1,676
  1,719
  1,767
  1,820
  1,878
  1,941
  2,010
  2,084
  2,164
  2,235
  2,326
  2,422
  2,525
  2,634
  2,749
  2,872
  3,001
  3,137
  3,281
  3,434
  3,594
  3,763
  3,941
  4,129
  4,326
  4,534
  4,753
  4,983
  5,225
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,568
  1,638
  1,676
  1,719
  1,767
  1,820
  1,878
  1,941
  2,010
  2,084
  2,164
  2,235
  2,326
  2,422
  2,525
  2,634
  2,749
  2,872
  3,001
  3,137
  3,281
  3,434
  3,594
  3,763
  3,941
  4,129
  4,326
  4,534
  4,753
  4,983
  5,225
Operating income, $m
  363
  331
  339
  348
  358
  370
  382
  395
  410
  426
  443
  474
  494
  514
  536
  559
  583
  609
  637
  666
  696
  729
  763
  798
  836
  876
  918
  962
  1,009
  1,057
  1,109
EBITDA, $m
  686
  652
  667
  684
  703
  725
  748
  774
  801
  831
  863
  897
  933
  972
  1,013
  1,057
  1,103
  1,152
  1,204
  1,259
  1,317
  1,378
  1,442
  1,510
  1,581
  1,657
  1,736
  1,819
  1,907
  2,000
  2,097
Interest expense (income), $m
  29
  23
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  50
  53
  57
  61
  65
  70
  74
  79
  84
  90
  96
  102
  109
  115
  123
  130
  138
  147
Earnings before tax, $m
  337
  308
  315
  323
  331
  341
  351
  363
  375
  388
  402
  431
  447
  464
  483
  502
  523
  544
  567
  591
  617
  644
  673
  703
  734
  768
  803
  839
  878
  919
  962
Tax expense, $m
  0
  83
  85
  87
  89
  92
  95
  98
  101
  105
  109
  116
  121
  125
  130
  136
  141
  147
  153
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  198
  207
  217
  227
  237
  248
  260
Net income, $m
  186
  225
  230
  236
  242
  249
  256
  265
  274
  283
  294
  315
  326
  339
  352
  366
  381
  397
  414
  432
  450
  470
  491
  513
  536
  560
  586
  613
  641
  671
  702

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  45
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,198
  2,196
  2,246
  2,304
  2,369
  2,441
  2,519
  2,605
  2,698
  2,798
  2,906
  3,020
  3,143
  3,274
  3,412
  3,559
  3,715
  3,881
  4,055
  4,240
  4,435
  4,640
  4,857
  5,085
  5,326
  5,580
  5,847
  6,128
  6,423
  6,734
  7,062
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,153
  2,196
  2,246
  2,304
  2,369
  2,441
  2,519
  2,605
  2,698
  2,798
  2,906
  3,020
  3,143
  3,274
  3,412
  3,559
  3,715
  3,881
  4,055
  4,240
  4,435
  4,640
  4,857
  5,085
  5,326
  5,580
  5,847
  6,128
  6,423
  6,734
  7,062
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
Average production assets, $m
  1,717
  1,751
  1,791
  1,837
  1,889
  1,946
  2,009
  2,078
  2,152
  2,231
  2,317
  2,409
  2,506
  2,610
  2,721
  2,838
  2,963
  3,095
  3,234
  3,381
  3,536
  3,700
  3,873
  4,055
  4,247
  4,449
  4,662
  4,886
  5,122
  5,370
  5,631
Working capital, $m
  -46
  89
  91
  93
  96
  99
  102
  105
  109
  113
  117
  122
  127
  132
  138
  144
  150
  157
  164
  171
  179
  187
  196
  205
  215
  225
  236
  247
  259
  272
  285
Total debt, $m
  662
  649
  686
  728
  775
  828
  885
  948
  1,016
  1,089
  1,167
  1,251
  1,340
  1,436
  1,537
  1,644
  1,758
  1,879
  2,006
  2,141
  2,283
  2,433
  2,591
  2,758
  2,934
  3,119
  3,314
  3,519
  3,735
  3,962
  4,201
Total liabilities, $m
  1,616
  1,603
  1,640
  1,682
  1,729
  1,782
  1,839
  1,902
  1,970
  2,043
  2,121
  2,205
  2,294
  2,390
  2,491
  2,598
  2,712
  2,833
  2,960
  3,095
  3,237
  3,387
  3,545
  3,712
  3,888
  4,073
  4,268
  4,473
  4,689
  4,916
  5,155
Total equity, $m
  582
  593
  606
  622
  640
  659
  680
  703
  728
  756
  785
  816
  849
  884
  921
  961
  1,003
  1,048
  1,095
  1,145
  1,197
  1,253
  1,311
  1,373
  1,438
  1,506
  1,579
  1,654
  1,734
  1,818
  1,907
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,198
  2,196
  2,246
  2,304
  2,369
  2,441
  2,519
  2,605
  2,698
  2,799
  2,906
  3,021
  3,143
  3,274
  3,412
  3,559
  3,715
  3,881
  4,055
  4,240
  4,434
  4,640
  4,856
  5,085
  5,326
  5,579
  5,847
  6,127
  6,423
  6,734
  7,062
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.137
  1.090
  1.130
  1.170
  1.210
  1.260
  1.300
  1.350
  1.390
  1.440
  1.490
  1.530
  1.580
  1.620
  1.670
  1.710
  1.750
  1.790
  1.830
  1.870
  1.910
  1.940
  1.980
  2.010
  2.040
  2.070
  2.100
  2.130
  2.150
  2.180
  2.200
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.249
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  186
  225
  230
  236
  242
  249
  256
  265
  274
  283
  294
  315
  326
  339
  352
  366
  381
  397
  414
  432
  450
  470
  491
  513
  536
  560
  586
  613
  641
  671
  702
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  323
  321
  328
  336
  345
  355
  366
  378
  391
  405
  420
  423
  440
  458
  477
  498
  520
  543
  567
  593
  620
  649
  679
  711
  745
  781
  818
  857
  899
  942
  988
Funds from operations, $m
  727
  546
  558
  572
  587
  604
  623
  643
  665
  688
  714
  737
  766
  797
  830
  864
  901
  940
  981
  1,025
  1,071
  1,119
  1,170
  1,224
  1,281
  1,341
  1,404
  1,470
  1,540
  1,613
  1,690
Change in working capital, $m
  26
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
Cash from operations, $m
  701
  544
  556
  569
  584
  601
  619
  639
  661
  684
  709
  733
  761
  792
  824
  859
  895
  934
  974
  1,017
  1,063
  1,111
  1,162
  1,215
  1,271
  1,331
  1,393
  1,459
  1,528
  1,601
  1,677
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -301
  -307
  -314
  -322
  -331
  -341
  -352
  -364
  -377
  -391
  -406
  -423
  -440
  -458
  -477
  -498
  -520
  -543
  -567
  -593
  -620
  -649
  -679
  -711
  -745
  -781
  -818
  -857
  -899
  -942
New CAPEX, $m
  -91
  -34
  -40
  -46
  -52
  -57
  -63
  -68
  -74
  -80
  -86
  -92
  -98
  -104
  -111
  -117
  -124
  -132
  -139
  -147
  -155
  -164
  -173
  -182
  -192
  -202
  -213
  -224
  -236
  -248
  -261
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -192
  -335
  -347
  -360
  -374
  -388
  -404
  -420
  -438
  -457
  -477
  -498
  -521
  -544
  -569
  -594
  -622
  -652
  -682
  -714
  -748
  -784
  -822
  -861
  -903
  -947
  -994
  -1,042
  -1,093
  -1,147
  -1,203
Free cash flow, $m
  509
  209
  208
  209
  210
  212
  215
  218
  223
  227
  232
  235
  241
  248
  256
  264
  273
  282
  292
  303
  315
  327
  340
  353
  368
  383
  400
  417
  435
  454
  474
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -260
  32
  37
  42
  47
  52
  58
  63
  68
  73
  78
  84
  89
  95
  101
  107
  114
  121
  127
  135
  142
  150
  158
  167
  176
  185
  195
  205
  216
  227
  239
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -347
  32
  37
  42
  47
  52
  58
  63
  68
  73
  78
  84
  89
  95
  101
  107
  114
  121
  127
  135
  142
  150
  158
  167
  176
  185
  195
  205
  216
  227
  239
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  162
  241
  245
  251
  258
  265
  273
  281
  290
  300
  311
  318
  330
  343
  357
  371
  386
  403
  420
  438
  457
  477
  498
  520
  544
  568
  594
  622
  651
  681
  713
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -30
  -11
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  230
  232
  236
  240
  245
  251
  258
  265
  273
  282
  287
  297
  308
  319
  331
  344
  358
  373
  388
  404
  421
  439
  459
  479
  500
  522
  546
  571
  597
  625
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  221
  212
  205
  198
  190
  182
  174
  166
  157
  148
  136
  127
  117
  107
  97
  88
  78
  69
  60
  51
  44
  36
  30
  24
  19
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Alliance Holdings GP, L.P. (AHGP) is a limited partnership company. The Company owns directly and indirectly the members' interest in Alliance Resource Management GP, LLC (MGP), the managing general partner of Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP). The Company's segments include Illinois Basin, Appalachia, and Other and Corporate. The Illinois Basin segment consists of mining complexes, including Webster County Coal's Dotiki mining complex; Gibson County Coal's mining complex, which includes the Gibson North mine and Gibson South mine; Warrior's mining complex; River View's mining complex and the Hamilton mining complex. The Appalachia segment consists of various operating segments, including the Mettiki mining complex, the Tunnel Ridge mining complex and the MC Mining mining complex. The Mettiki mining complex includes Mettiki Coal (WV)'s Mountain View mine and Mettiki Coal's preparation plant. Other and Corporate segment includes marketing and administrative activities.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Alliance Holdings GP (AHGP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 8
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 2.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 2.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -15%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -57.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -22.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 83.3%
Total Debt to Equity 113.7%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Return On Total Capital 13.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.3%
Return On Equity 32.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 41.4%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 39.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.7%
EBITDA Margin 35.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.3%
Operating Margin 18.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 17.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.4%
Net Profit Margin 9.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 83.9%

AHGP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AHGP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1931 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Alliance Holdings GP. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Alliance Holdings GP. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AHGP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AHGP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Alliance Holdings GP, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Alliance Holdings GP.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AHGP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AHGP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.7% for Alliance Holdings GP.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Alliance Holdings GP. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AHGP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AHGP are equal to 88.9%.

Life of production assets of 5.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Alliance Holdings GP operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AHGP is equal to 4.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $582 million for Alliance Holdings GP - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 60.036 million for Alliance Holdings GP is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Alliance Holdings GP at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.5 billion.

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Financial statements of AHGP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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