Intrinsic value of Ashford Hospitality Prime - AHP

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$10.65

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as AHP.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AHP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  16.00
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
  5.96
  5.86
  5.77
  5.70
  5.63
  5.56
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
Revenue, $m
  406
  434
  462
  492
  523
  556
  589
  624
  661
  699
  739
  781
  824
  869
  917
  966
  1,018
  1,073
  1,129
  1,189
  1,251
  1,317
  1,385
  1,457
  1,532
  1,611
  1,693
  1,780
  1,871
  1,966
  2,066
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  377
  402
  428
  455
  483
  512
  543
  574
  608
  642
  678
  716
  755
  797
  840
  885
  932
  982
  1,033
  1,087
  1,144
  1,204
  1,266
  1,331
  1,400
  1,472
  1,547
  1,626
  1,709
  1,796
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  361
  377
  402
  428
  455
  483
  512
  543
  574
  608
  642
  678
  716
  755
  797
  840
  885
  932
  982
  1,033
  1,087
  1,144
  1,204
  1,266
  1,331
  1,400
  1,472
  1,547
  1,626
  1,709
  1,796
Operating income, $m
  45
  57
  61
  64
  69
  73
  77
  82
  87
  92
  97
  102
  108
  114
  120
  127
  133
  141
  148
  156
  164
  172
  181
  191
  201
  211
  222
  233
  245
  258
  271
EBITDA, $m
  91
  104
  111
  118
  125
  133
  141
  150
  158
  168
  177
  187
  197
  208
  220
  232
  244
  257
  271
  285
  300
  315
  332
  349
  367
  386
  406
  427
  448
  471
  495
Interest expense (income), $m
  38
  34
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  87
  92
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
Earnings before tax, $m
  26
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  63
  66
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
Tax expense, $m
  2
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
Net income, $m
  19
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  127
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,257
  1,208
  1,288
  1,371
  1,457
  1,548
  1,641
  1,739
  1,841
  1,947
  2,058
  2,174
  2,295
  2,422
  2,554
  2,692
  2,837
  2,988
  3,146
  3,312
  3,486
  3,668
  3,858
  4,058
  4,267
  4,487
  4,717
  4,958
  5,211
  5,477
  5,755
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,130
  1,208
  1,288
  1,371
  1,457
  1,548
  1,641
  1,739
  1,841
  1,947
  2,058
  2,174
  2,295
  2,422
  2,554
  2,692
  2,837
  2,988
  3,146
  3,312
  3,486
  3,668
  3,858
  4,058
  4,267
  4,487
  4,717
  4,958
  5,211
  5,477
  5,755
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
Average production assets, $m
  1,076
  607
  648
  690
  733
  778
  826
  875
  926
  979
  1,035
  1,094
  1,154
  1,218
  1,284
  1,354
  1,427
  1,503
  1,582
  1,666
  1,753
  1,845
  1,941
  2,041
  2,146
  2,257
  2,372
  2,494
  2,621
  2,755
  2,895
Working capital, $m
  0
  -136
  -145
  -154
  -164
  -174
  -184
  -195
  -207
  -219
  -231
  -244
  -258
  -272
  -287
  -302
  -319
  -336
  -354
  -372
  -392
  -412
  -434
  -456
  -480
  -504
  -530
  -557
  -586
  -615
  -647
Total debt, $m
  765
  826
  889
  954
  1,021
  1,092
  1,165
  1,241
  1,321
  1,404
  1,491
  1,581
  1,676
  1,774
  1,878
  1,985
  2,098
  2,217
  2,340
  2,470
  2,605
  2,747
  2,896
  3,052
  3,216
  3,387
  3,567
  3,755
  3,953
  4,160
  4,378
Total liabilities, $m
  882
  943
  1,006
  1,071
  1,138
  1,209
  1,282
  1,358
  1,438
  1,521
  1,608
  1,698
  1,793
  1,891
  1,995
  2,102
  2,215
  2,334
  2,457
  2,587
  2,722
  2,864
  3,013
  3,169
  3,333
  3,504
  3,684
  3,872
  4,070
  4,277
  4,495
Total equity, $m
  375
  265
  282
  300
  319
  339
  359
  381
  403
  426
  451
  476
  503
  530
  559
  590
  621
  654
  689
  725
  763
  803
  845
  889
  935
  983
  1,033
  1,086
  1,141
  1,199
  1,260
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,257
  1,208
  1,288
  1,371
  1,457
  1,548
  1,641
  1,739
  1,841
  1,947
  2,059
  2,174
  2,296
  2,421
  2,554
  2,692
  2,836
  2,988
  3,146
  3,312
  3,485
  3,667
  3,858
  4,058
  4,268
  4,487
  4,717
  4,958
  5,211
  5,476
  5,755
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.040
  3.120
  3.150
  3.180
  3.200
  3.220
  3.240
  3.260
  3.280
  3.290
  3.310
  3.320
  3.330
  3.350
  3.360
  3.370
  3.380
  3.390
  3.400
  3.400
  3.410
  3.420
  3.430
  3.430
  3.440
  3.450
  3.450
  3.460
  3.460
  3.470
  3.470
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  19
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  46
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  100
  105
  111
  116
  123
  129
  136
  143
  150
  158
  166
  175
  184
  193
  203
  214
  224
Funds from operations, $m
  55
  64
  68
  72
  76
  81
  85
  90
  95
  100
  106
  112
  118
  124
  130
  137
  144
  152
  159
  168
  176
  185
  195
  205
  215
  226
  237
  249
  261
  275
  288
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
Cash from operations, $m
  57
  -473
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
  112
  118
  125
  131
  138
  145
  153
  160
  169
  177
  186
  196
  206
  216
  227
  238
  250
  263
  276
  290
  304
  320
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -116
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -175
  -184
  -193
  -203
  -214
New CAPEX, $m
  -23
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -134
  -140
Cash from investing activities, $m
  100
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -138
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -196
  -206
  -216
  -227
  -239
  -250
  -263
  -276
  -291
  -305
  -320
  -337
  -354
Free cash flow, $m
  157
  -556
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -73
  61
  62
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  129
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  171
  180
  188
  198
  207
  217
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -35
  384
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -119
  445
  62
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  129
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  171
  180
  188
  198
  207
  217
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  39
  -495
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167
  175
  184
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  26
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  127
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  81
  84
  88
  93
  97
  102
  106
  112
  117
  123
Discount rate, %
 
  10.40
  10.92
  11.47
  12.04
  12.64
  13.27
  13.94
  14.63
  15.37
  16.13
  16.94
  17.79
  18.68
  19.61
  20.59
  21.62
  22.70
  23.84
  25.03
  26.28
  27.59
  28.97
  30.42
  31.94
  33.54
  35.22
  36.98
  38.83
  40.77
  42.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  28
  26
  24
  22
  19
  17
  15
  13
  11
  9
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  32.3
  32.3
  32.3
  32.3
  32.3
  32.3
  32.3
  32.3
  32.3
  32.3
  32.3
  32.3
  32.3
  32.3
  32.3
  32.3
  32.3
  32.3
  32.3
  32.3
  32.3
  32.3
  32.3
  32.3
  32.3
  32.3
  32.3
  32.3
  32.3
  32.3

Ashford Hospitality Prime, Inc. is a real estate investment trust. The firm invests in real estate markets across the globe. It invests primarily in high RevPAR, full-service and urban select-service hotels and resorts located predominantly in domestic and international gateway markets. Ashford Hospitality Prime, Inc. was formed in April 2013 and is based in Dallas, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ashford Hospitality Prime (AHP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 14.6
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 0.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 8.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 16%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -85.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 204%
Total Debt to Equity 204%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Return On Total Capital 1.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Return On Equity 4.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 41.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 43.1%
EBITDA Margin 27.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.2%
Operating Margin 11.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Net Profit Margin 4.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Effective Tax Rate 7.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Payout Ratio 89.5%

AHP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AHP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $406 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ashford Hospitality Prime. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ashford Hospitality Prime. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AHP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.4%, whose default value for AHP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ashford Hospitality Prime, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ashford Hospitality Prime.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AHP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AHP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.4% for Ashford Hospitality Prime.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ashford Hospitality Prime. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AHP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AHP are equal to 140.1%.

Life of production assets of 12.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ashford Hospitality Prime operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AHP is equal to -31.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $375 million for Ashford Hospitality Prime - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 26.029 million for Ashford Hospitality Prime is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ashford Hospitality Prime at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 3 Small Cap REITs Poised To Profit   [Jun-26-17 07:00AM  Forbes]
▶ Ashford Prime To Present At NAREIT's REITWeek 2017   [Jun-05-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Ashford Trust Reports First Quarter 2017 Results   [May-04-17 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Ashford Prime Reports First Quarter 2017 Results   [May-03-17 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ FelCor merging with Maryland hotel investment company in $1.18B deal   [Apr-24-17 02:40PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ FelCor tells Ashford it will consider cash sale   [Feb-27-17 06:00PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ [$$] Ranking the Lodging REITs   [Dec-23-16 02:56PM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Federal Appellate Court Rejects Sessa's Appeal   [Dec-19-16 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Is Ashford Hospitality Trust, Inc. (AHT) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-09-16 04:27AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ 3 Reliable Dividend Stocks Yielding 7% or More   [Nov-30-16 10:00AM  at Kiplinger]
Stock chart of AHP Financial statements of AHP Annual reports of AHP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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