Intrinsic value of Altra Industrial Motion - AIMC

Previous Close

$49.90

  Intrinsic Value

$128.13

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+157%

  Value-price divergence*

+474%

Previous close

$49.90

 
Intrinsic value

$128.13

 
Up/down potential

+157%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+474%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AIMC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -5.09
  21.90
  20.21
  18.69
  17.32
  16.09
  14.98
  13.98
  13.08
  12.27
  11.55
  10.89
  10.30
  9.77
  9.30
  8.87
  8.48
  8.13
  7.82
  7.54
  7.28
  7.05
  6.85
  6.66
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.88
  5.80
Revenue, $m
  709
  864
  1,039
  1,233
  1,447
  1,679
  1,931
  2,201
  2,489
  2,794
  3,117
  3,457
  3,813
  4,185
  4,575
  4,980
  5,402
  5,842
  6,298
  6,773
  7,266
  7,779
  8,312
  8,866
  9,442
  10,041
  10,665
  11,315
  11,992
  12,697
  13,433
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  429
  512
  604
  705
  816
  935
  1,063
  1,200
  1,344
  1,497
  1,640
  1,809
  1,985
  2,170
  2,362
  2,563
  2,771
  2,988
  3,213
  3,447
  3,690
  3,943
  4,205
  4,479
  4,763
  5,059
  5,367
  5,688
  6,023
  6,372
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  324
  332
  340
  349
  358
  366
  376
  385
  395
  405
  415
  425
  436
  446
  458
  469
  481
  493
  505
  518
  531
  544
  558
  572
  586
  600
  616
  631
  647
  663
Total operating expenses, $m
  663
  753
  844
  944
  1,054
  1,174
  1,301
  1,439
  1,585
  1,739
  1,902
  2,055
  2,234
  2,421
  2,616
  2,820
  3,032
  3,252
  3,481
  3,718
  3,965
  4,221
  4,487
  4,763
  5,051
  5,349
  5,659
  5,983
  6,319
  6,670
  7,035
Operating income, $m
  46
  112
  195
  289
  393
  506
  630
  762
  904
  1,055
  1,215
  1,402
  1,579
  1,765
  1,958
  2,160
  2,371
  2,590
  2,818
  3,055
  3,302
  3,558
  3,825
  4,103
  4,392
  4,692
  5,006
  5,332
  5,673
  6,028
  6,398
EBITDA, $m
  76
  155
  243
  343
  453
  573
  703
  844
  994
  1,153
  1,322
  1,500
  1,687
  1,883
  2,087
  2,301
  2,523
  2,755
  2,996
  3,247
  3,507
  3,778
  4,060
  4,353
  4,658
  4,976
  5,307
  5,652
  6,011
  6,387
  6,778
Interest expense (income), $m
  7
  11
  16
  20
  25
  31
  37
  44
  51
  59
  67
  76
  85
  95
  105
  115
  126
  137
  149
  161
  174
  187
  201
  215
  230
  246
  262
  278
  296
  314
  333
Earnings before tax, $m
  34
  100
  180
  269
  367
  475
  592
  718
  853
  996
  1,148
  1,326
  1,494
  1,670
  1,853
  2,045
  2,245
  2,453
  2,669
  2,894
  3,128
  3,371
  3,624
  3,887
  4,161
  4,447
  4,744
  5,054
  5,377
  5,714
  6,066
Tax expense, $m
  9
  27
  49
  73
  99
  128
  160
  194
  230
  269
  310
  358
  403
  451
  500
  552
  606
  662
  721
  781
  845
  910
  979
  1,050
  1,124
  1,201
  1,281
  1,365
  1,452
  1,543
  1,638
Net income, $m
  25
  73
  131
  196
  268
  347
  432
  524
  623
  727
  838
  968
  1,091
  1,219
  1,353
  1,493
  1,639
  1,790
  1,948
  2,113
  2,283
  2,461
  2,646
  2,838
  3,038
  3,246
  3,463
  3,689
  3,925
  4,171
  4,428

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  69
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  870
  977
  1,174
  1,393
  1,635
  1,898
  2,182
  2,487
  2,812
  3,158
  3,522
  3,906
  4,308
  4,729
  5,169
  5,627
  6,104
  6,601
  7,117
  7,653
  8,211
  8,790
  9,392
  10,018
  10,669
  11,346
  12,051
  12,785
  13,550
  14,347
  15,179
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  801
  977
  1,174
  1,393
  1,635
  1,898
  2,182
  2,487
  2,812
  3,158
  3,522
  3,906
  4,308
  4,729
  5,169
  5,627
  6,104
  6,601
  7,117
  7,653
  8,211
  8,790
  9,392
  10,018
  10,669
  11,346
  12,051
  12,785
  13,550
  14,347
  15,179
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.885
  0.884
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
Average production assets, $m
  287
  349
  420
  498
  584
  678
  780
  889
  1,006
  1,129
  1,259
  1,396
  1,540
  1,691
  1,848
  2,012
  2,183
  2,360
  2,545
  2,736
  2,936
  3,143
  3,358
  3,582
  3,814
  4,057
  4,309
  4,571
  4,845
  5,130
  5,427
Working capital, $m
  172
  179
  215
  255
  299
  348
  400
  456
  515
  578
  645
  716
  789
  866
  947
  1,031
  1,118
  1,209
  1,304
  1,402
  1,504
  1,610
  1,721
  1,835
  1,954
  2,079
  2,208
  2,342
  2,482
  2,628
  2,781
Total debt, $m
  370
  445
  579
  728
  891
  1,070
  1,262
  1,469
  1,690
  1,924
  2,171
  2,431
  2,704
  2,989
  3,288
  3,598
  3,922
  4,258
  4,608
  4,972
  5,350
  5,743
  6,151
  6,575
  7,016
  7,476
  7,954
  8,451
  8,970
  9,510
  10,074
Total liabilities, $m
  586
  662
  796
  945
  1,108
  1,287
  1,479
  1,686
  1,907
  2,141
  2,388
  2,648
  2,921
  3,206
  3,505
  3,815
  4,139
  4,475
  4,825
  5,189
  5,567
  5,960
  6,368
  6,792
  7,233
  7,693
  8,171
  8,668
  9,187
  9,727
  10,291
Total equity, $m
  283
  314
  378
  449
  526
  611
  703
  801
  906
  1,017
  1,134
  1,258
  1,387
  1,523
  1,664
  1,812
  1,966
  2,125
  2,292
  2,464
  2,644
  2,830
  3,024
  3,226
  3,435
  3,653
  3,880
  4,117
  4,363
  4,620
  4,888
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  869
  976
  1,174
  1,394
  1,634
  1,898
  2,182
  2,487
  2,813
  3,158
  3,522
  3,906
  4,308
  4,729
  5,169
  5,627
  6,105
  6,600
  7,117
  7,653
  8,211
  8,790
  9,392
  10,018
  10,668
  11,346
  12,051
  12,785
  13,550
  14,347
  15,179
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.307
  1.420
  1.530
  1.620
  1.690
  1.750
  1.800
  1.830
  1.870
  1.890
  1.910
  1.930
  1.950
  1.960
  1.980
  1.990
  2.000
  2.000
  2.010
  2.020
  2.020
  2.030
  2.030
  2.040
  2.040
  2.050
  2.050
  2.050
  2.060
  2.060
  2.060
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.267
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  25
  73
  131
  196
  268
  347
  432
  524
  623
  727
  838
  968
  1,091
  1,219
  1,353
  1,493
  1,639
  1,790
  1,948
  2,113
  2,283
  2,461
  2,646
  2,838
  3,038
  3,246
  3,463
  3,689
  3,925
  4,171
  4,428
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  30
  43
  48
  54
  60
  66
  73
  81
  89
  98
  107
  98
  108
  118
  129
  141
  153
  165
  178
  191
  205
  220
  235
  250
  267
  284
  301
  320
  339
  359
  380
Funds from operations, $m
  82
  116
  179
  250
  328
  413
  506
  605
  712
  825
  945
  1,066
  1,198
  1,337
  1,482
  1,634
  1,791
  1,955
  2,126
  2,304
  2,489
  2,681
  2,880
  3,088
  3,305
  3,530
  3,764
  4,009
  4,264
  4,530
  4,807
Change in working capital, $m
  5
  32
  36
  40
  44
  48
  52
  56
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  84
  87
  91
  95
  98
  102
  106
  110
  115
  119
  124
  129
  134
  140
  146
  152
Cash from operations, $m
  77
  84
  143
  210
  284
  365
  454
  550
  652
  762
  878
  996
  1,125
  1,260
  1,402
  1,550
  1,704
  1,865
  2,032
  2,206
  2,386
  2,575
  2,770
  2,974
  3,185
  3,406
  3,635
  3,874
  4,124
  4,384
  4,655
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -20
  -24
  -29
  -35
  -41
  -47
  -55
  -62
  -70
  -79
  -88
  -98
  -108
  -118
  -129
  -141
  -153
  -165
  -178
  -191
  -205
  -220
  -235
  -250
  -267
  -284
  -301
  -320
  -339
  -359
New CAPEX, $m
  -19
  -63
  -71
  -78
  -86
  -94
  -102
  -109
  -116
  -123
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -157
  -164
  -171
  -177
  -185
  -192
  -199
  -207
  -215
  -224
  -233
  -242
  -252
  -262
  -273
  -285
  -297
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -207
  -83
  -95
  -107
  -121
  -135
  -149
  -164
  -178
  -193
  -209
  -225
  -242
  -259
  -275
  -293
  -312
  -330
  -350
  -370
  -390
  -412
  -435
  -459
  -483
  -509
  -536
  -563
  -593
  -624
  -656
Free cash flow, $m
  -130
  2
  48
  102
  163
  230
  305
  386
  474
  568
  669
  770
  883
  1,002
  1,126
  1,257
  1,393
  1,534
  1,682
  1,836
  1,996
  2,162
  2,335
  2,515
  2,702
  2,897
  3,100
  3,311
  3,531
  3,760
  3,999
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  168
  119
  134
  149
  164
  178
  193
  207
  221
  234
  247
  260
  273
  285
  298
  311
  324
  337
  350
  364
  378
  393
  408
  424
  441
  459
  478
  498
  519
  541
  564
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  162
  119
  134
  149
  164
  178
  193
  207
  221
  234
  247
  260
  273
  285
  298
  311
  324
  337
  350
  364
  378
  393
  408
  424
  441
  459
  478
  498
  519
  541
  564
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  31
  121
  182
  251
  326
  408
  497
  593
  694
  802
  916
  1,031
  1,156
  1,287
  1,424
  1,567
  1,716
  1,871
  2,032
  2,200
  2,374
  2,555
  2,743
  2,939
  3,144
  3,356
  3,578
  3,808
  4,049
  4,300
  4,563
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -40
  -56
  -64
  -71
  -78
  -85
  -92
  -98
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -160
  -166
  -173
  -179
  -187
  -194
  -202
  -210
  -218
  -227
  -236
  -246
  -257
  -268
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  25
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  89
  119
  180
  248
  324
  406
  494
  590
  691
  799
  907
  1,026
  1,152
  1,283
  1,420
  1,562
  1,711
  1,866
  2,027
  2,194
  2,368
  2,549
  2,738
  2,934
  3,138
  3,351
  3,572
  3,803
  4,044
  4,295
Discount rate, %
 
  7.40
  7.77
  8.16
  8.57
  8.99
  9.44
  9.92
  10.41
  10.93
  11.48
  12.05
  12.66
  13.29
  13.95
  14.65
  15.38
  16.15
  16.96
  17.81
  18.70
  19.63
  20.62
  21.65
  22.73
  23.87
  25.06
  26.31
  27.63
  29.01
  30.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  83
  102
  142
  179
  210
  236
  255
  267
  272
  269
  259
  246
  227
  206
  183
  158
  134
  111
  90
  71
  55
  41
  30
  22
  15
  10
  7
  4
  3
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Altra Industrial Motion Corp. is a designer, producer and marketer of a range of mechanical power transmission (MPT) components. The Company operates through three segments: Couplings, Clutches and Brakes; Electromagnetic Clutches and Brakes, and Gearing. It manufactures a range of couplings suitable for various industrial and specialty applications. The Electromagnetic Clutches and Brakes segment products include brakes and clutches that are used to electronically slow, stop, engage or disengage equipment utilizing electromagnetic friction type connections. The Gearing segment product lines include vertical and horizontal gear drives, speed reducers and increasers, high-speed compressor drives, enclosed custom gear drives, various enclosed gear drive and gear motor configurations, and open gearing products, such as spur, helical, worm and miter/bevel gears. Its products are used to control and transmit power and torque in virtually any industrial application involving movement.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Altra Industrial Motion (AIMC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 54.3
Price to Sales 1.9
Price to Book 4.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 23.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -17.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -7.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 115.2%
Total Debt to Equity 130.7%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Return On Total Capital 4.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Return On Equity 9.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 31.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.7%
EBITDA Margin 10%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Operating Margin 6.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Net Profit Margin 3.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Effective Tax Rate 26.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.5%
Payout Ratio 48%

AIMC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AIMC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $709 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Altra Industrial Motion. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Altra Industrial Motion. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AIMC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 21.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.4%, whose default value for AIMC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Altra Industrial Motion, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Altra Industrial Motion.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AIMC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 50.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $316 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AIMC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Altra Industrial Motion.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Altra Industrial Motion. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AIMC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AIMC are equal to 40.4%.

Life of production assets of 14.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Altra Industrial Motion operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AIMC is equal to 20.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $283 million for Altra Industrial Motion - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 30.369 million for Altra Industrial Motion is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Altra Industrial Motion at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.5 billion.

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Financial statements of AIMC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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