Intrinsic value of Altra Industrial Motion - AIMC

Previous Close

$43.85

  Intrinsic Value

$91.05

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+108%

Previous close

$43.85

 
Intrinsic value

$91.05

 
Up/down potential

+108%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of AIMC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -5.09
  23.70
  21.83
  20.15
  18.63
  17.27
  16.04
  14.94
  13.94
  13.05
  12.24
  11.52
  10.87
  10.28
  9.75
  9.28
  8.85
  8.47
  8.12
  7.81
  7.53
  7.27
  7.05
  6.84
  6.66
  6.49
  6.34
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.88
Revenue, $m
  709
  1,085
  1,322
  1,588
  1,884
  2,209
  2,564
  2,946
  3,357
  3,795
  4,260
  4,751
  5,267
  5,809
  6,375
  6,967
  7,584
  8,226
  8,893
  9,588
  10,309
  11,059
  11,838
  12,648
  13,490
  14,366
  15,277
  16,225
  17,213
  18,242
  19,315
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  860
  1,040
  1,242
  1,467
  1,714
  1,983
  2,274
  2,586
  2,918
  3,271
  3,607
  3,999
  4,410
  4,841
  5,290
  5,758
  6,245
  6,752
  7,280
  7,827
  8,397
  8,988
  9,603
  10,243
  10,908
  11,599
  12,319
  13,069
  13,851
  14,665
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  97
  99
  101
  104
  106
  108
  111
  113
  116
  118
  121
  123
  126
  129
  132
  135
  138
  141
  144
  147
  150
  153
  157
  160
  164
  167
  171
  175
  179
  182
Total operating expenses, $m
  663
  957
  1,139
  1,343
  1,571
  1,820
  2,091
  2,385
  2,699
  3,034
  3,389
  3,728
  4,122
  4,536
  4,970
  5,422
  5,893
  6,383
  6,893
  7,424
  7,974
  8,547
  9,141
  9,760
  10,403
  11,072
  11,766
  12,490
  13,244
  14,030
  14,847
Operating income, $m
  46
  127
  182
  244
  313
  389
  472
  562
  659
  762
  871
  1,023
  1,145
  1,272
  1,406
  1,546
  1,691
  1,843
  2,000
  2,164
  2,335
  2,512
  2,697
  2,888
  3,087
  3,295
  3,510
  3,735
  3,969
  4,213
  4,467
EBITDA, $m
  76
  231
  300
  379
  466
  562
  667
  780
  902
  1,032
  1,169
  1,315
  1,469
  1,630
  1,798
  1,974
  2,157
  2,348
  2,547
  2,754
  2,969
  3,192
  3,425
  3,666
  3,917
  4,178
  4,450
  4,733
  5,028
  5,335
  5,655
Interest expense (income), $m
  7
  15
  22
  29
  38
  47
  58
  69
  82
  95
  109
  124
  140
  157
  174
  192
  211
  231
  252
  274
  296
  319
  344
  369
  395
  422
  450
  480
  510
  542
  575
Earnings before tax, $m
  34
  113
  161
  215
  275
  342
  414
  493
  577
  667
  762
  899
  1,005
  1,116
  1,232
  1,353
  1,480
  1,611
  1,748
  1,891
  2,039
  2,193
  2,353
  2,519
  2,693
  2,873
  3,060
  3,255
  3,459
  3,671
  3,892
Tax expense, $m
  9
  30
  43
  58
  74
  92
  112
  133
  156
  180
  206
  243
  271
  301
  333
  365
  399
  435
  472
  511
  550
  592
  635
  680
  727
  776
  826
  879
  934
  991
  1,051
Net income, $m
  25
  82
  117
  157
  201
  250
  302
  360
  421
  487
  556
  656
  733
  814
  899
  988
  1,080
  1,176
  1,276
  1,380
  1,488
  1,601
  1,718
  1,839
  1,966
  2,097
  2,234
  2,376
  2,525
  2,680
  2,841

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  69
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  870
  1,140
  1,388
  1,668
  1,979
  2,321
  2,693
  3,095
  3,527
  3,987
  4,475
  4,991
  5,533
  6,102
  6,697
  7,318
  7,966
  8,640
  9,342
  10,071
  10,829
  11,617
  12,435
  13,286
  14,170
  15,090
  16,047
  17,044
  18,081
  19,162
  20,289
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  801
  1,140
  1,388
  1,668
  1,979
  2,321
  2,693
  3,095
  3,527
  3,987
  4,475
  4,991
  5,533
  6,102
  6,697
  7,318
  7,966
  8,640
  9,342
  10,071
  10,829
  11,617
  12,435
  13,286
  14,170
  15,090
  16,047
  17,044
  18,081
  19,162
  20,289
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.885
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
Average production assets, $m
  287
  667
  813
  977
  1,159
  1,359
  1,577
  1,812
  2,065
  2,334
  2,620
  2,922
  3,239
  3,572
  3,921
  4,285
  4,664
  5,059
  5,469
  5,896
  6,340
  6,801
  7,281
  7,779
  8,296
  8,835
  9,395
  9,979
  10,586
  11,219
  11,879
Working capital, $m
  172
  97
  118
  141
  168
  197
  228
  262
  299
  338
  379
  423
  469
  517
  567
  620
  675
  732
  792
  853
  918
  984
  1,054
  1,126
  1,201
  1,279
  1,360
  1,444
  1,532
  1,624
  1,719
Total debt, $m
  370
  401
  542
  701
  878
  1,073
  1,285
  1,513
  1,759
  2,021
  2,299
  2,592
  2,901
  3,224
  3,563
  3,916
  4,285
  4,669
  5,068
  5,483
  5,914
  6,362
  6,828
  7,312
  7,815
  8,339
  8,883
  9,450
  10,040
  10,656
  11,297
Total liabilities, $m
  586
  648
  790
  949
  1,126
  1,320
  1,532
  1,761
  2,007
  2,269
  2,546
  2,840
  3,148
  3,472
  3,811
  4,164
  4,533
  4,916
  5,315
  5,730
  6,162
  6,610
  7,076
  7,560
  8,063
  8,586
  9,131
  9,698
  10,288
  10,903
  11,544
Total equity, $m
  283
  491
  598
  719
  853
  1,000
  1,161
  1,334
  1,520
  1,718
  1,929
  2,151
  2,385
  2,630
  2,886
  3,154
  3,433
  3,724
  4,026
  4,341
  4,667
  5,007
  5,360
  5,726
  6,107
  6,504
  6,916
  7,346
  7,793
  8,259
  8,745
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  869
  1,139
  1,388
  1,668
  1,979
  2,320
  2,693
  3,095
  3,527
  3,987
  4,475
  4,991
  5,533
  6,102
  6,697
  7,318
  7,966
  8,640
  9,341
  10,071
  10,829
  11,617
  12,436
  13,286
  14,170
  15,090
  16,047
  17,044
  18,081
  19,162
  20,289
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.307
  0.820
  0.910
  0.980
  1.030
  1.070
  1.110
  1.130
  1.160
  1.180
  1.190
  1.210
  1.220
  1.230
  1.230
  1.240
  1.250
  1.250
  1.260
  1.260
  1.270
  1.270
  1.270
  1.280
  1.280
  1.280
  1.280
  1.290
  1.290
  1.290
  1.290
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.267
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  25
  82
  117
  157
  201
  250
  302
  360
  421
  487
  556
  656
  733
  814
  899
  988
  1,080
  1,176
  1,276
  1,380
  1,488
  1,601
  1,718
  1,839
  1,966
  2,097
  2,234
  2,376
  2,525
  2,680
  2,841
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  30
  103
  118
  134
  152
  172
  194
  218
  243
  270
  299
  292
  324
  357
  392
  428
  466
  506
  547
  590
  634
  680
  728
  778
  830
  884
  940
  998
  1,059
  1,122
  1,188
Funds from operations, $m
  82
  185
  235
  291
  353
  422
  497
  577
  664
  757
  855
  948
  1,057
  1,172
  1,291
  1,416
  1,546
  1,682
  1,823
  1,970
  2,122
  2,281
  2,446
  2,617
  2,795
  2,981
  3,173
  3,374
  3,584
  3,802
  4,029
Change in working capital, $m
  5
  18
  21
  24
  26
  29
  32
  34
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  92
  95
Cash from operations, $m
  77
  167
  214
  267
  327
  393
  465
  543
  628
  718
  813
  905
  1,011
  1,124
  1,241
  1,364
  1,492
  1,625
  1,764
  1,908
  2,058
  2,214
  2,376
  2,545
  2,720
  2,903
  3,092
  3,290
  3,496
  3,710
  3,933
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -54
  -67
  -81
  -98
  -116
  -136
  -158
  -181
  -206
  -233
  -262
  -292
  -324
  -357
  -392
  -428
  -466
  -506
  -547
  -590
  -634
  -680
  -728
  -778
  -830
  -884
  -940
  -998
  -1,059
  -1,122
New CAPEX, $m
  -19
  -128
  -146
  -164
  -182
  -200
  -218
  -236
  -253
  -269
  -286
  -302
  -318
  -333
  -348
  -364
  -379
  -395
  -411
  -427
  -444
  -461
  -479
  -498
  -518
  -539
  -560
  -583
  -607
  -633
  -660
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -207
  -182
  -213
  -245
  -280
  -316
  -354
  -394
  -434
  -475
  -519
  -564
  -610
  -657
  -705
  -756
  -807
  -861
  -917
  -974
  -1,034
  -1,095
  -1,159
  -1,226
  -1,296
  -1,369
  -1,444
  -1,523
  -1,605
  -1,692
  -1,782
Free cash flow, $m
  -130
  -15
  2
  22
  48
  77
  111
  150
  194
  242
  294
  341
  402
  467
  535
  608
  684
  764
  847
  934
  1,025
  1,119
  1,217
  1,319
  1,425
  1,534
  1,648
  1,767
  1,890
  2,018
  2,152
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  168
  125
  142
  159
  177
  194
  212
  229
  246
  262
  278
  293
  309
  324
  339
  354
  369
  384
  399
  415
  431
  448
  466
  484
  503
  523
  545
  567
  590
  615
  641
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -5
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  162
  137
  142
  159
  177
  194
  212
  229
  246
  262
  278
  293
  309
  324
  339
  354
  369
  384
  399
  415
  431
  448
  466
  484
  503
  523
  545
  567
  590
  615
  641
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  31
  122
  143
  182
  224
  272
  323
  379
  439
  504
  572
  634
  710
  790
  874
  961
  1,052
  1,147
  1,246
  1,349
  1,456
  1,567
  1,683
  1,803
  1,928
  2,058
  2,193
  2,334
  2,481
  2,634
  2,793
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -40
  -94
  -107
  -121
  -134
  -147
  -160
  -173
  -186
  -198
  -210
  -222
  -234
  -245
  -256
  -268
  -279
  -291
  -302
  -314
  -327
  -339
  -353
  -367
  -381
  -396
  -413
  -429
  -447
  -466
  -486
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  5
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  18
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  42
  46
  49
  53
  58
  62
  66
  71
  76
  81
  86
  92
  97
  103
  109
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  28
  36
  61
  90
  124
  163
  206
  253
  305
  361
  412
  477
  545
  617
  693
  773
  857
  944
  1,035
  1,129
  1,228
  1,330
  1,436
  1,547
  1,661
  1,781
  1,905
  2,033
  2,168
  2,307
Discount rate, %
 
  5.40
  5.67
  5.95
  6.25
  6.56
  6.89
  7.24
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.18
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.04
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.20
  20.16
  21.17
  22.23
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  26
  32
  51
  71
  90
  109
  126
  141
  153
  162
  163
  165
  164
  159
  151
  141
  129
  116
  102
  87
  74
  61
  49
  39
  30
  23
  17
  12
  8
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.1
  99.1
  99.1
  99.1
  99.1
  99.1
  99.1
  99.1
  99.1
  99.1
  99.1
  99.1
  99.1
  99.1
  99.1
  99.1
  99.1
  99.1
  99.1
  99.1
  99.1
  99.1
  99.1
  99.1
  99.1
  99.1
  99.1
  99.1
  99.1
  99.1

Altra Industrial Motion Corp. is a designer, producer and marketer of a range of mechanical power transmission (MPT) components. The Company operates through three segments: Couplings, Clutches and Brakes; Electromagnetic Clutches and Brakes, and Gearing. It manufactures a range of couplings suitable for various industrial and specialty applications. The Electromagnetic Clutches and Brakes segment products include brakes and clutches that are used to electronically slow, stop, engage or disengage equipment utilizing electromagnetic friction type connections. The Gearing segment product lines include vertical and horizontal gear drives, speed reducers and increasers, high-speed compressor drives, enclosed custom gear drives, various enclosed gear drive and gear motor configurations, and open gearing products, such as spur, helical, worm and miter/bevel gears. Its products are used to control and transmit power and torque in virtually any industrial application involving movement.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Altra Industrial Motion (AIMC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 47.7
Price to Sales 1.7
Price to Book 4.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 20.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -17.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -7.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 115.2%
Total Debt to Equity 130.7%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Return On Total Capital 4.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Return On Equity 9.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 31.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.7%
EBITDA Margin 10%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Operating Margin 6.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Net Profit Margin 3.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Effective Tax Rate 26.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.5%
Payout Ratio 48%

AIMC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AIMC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $877 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Altra Industrial Motion. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Altra Industrial Motion. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AIMC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 23.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.4%, whose default value for AIMC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Altra Industrial Motion, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Altra Industrial Motion.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AIMC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 80.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $95 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AIMC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Altra Industrial Motion.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Altra Industrial Motion. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AIMC stock is equal to 0.6%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AIMC are equal to 61.5%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Altra Industrial Motion operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AIMC is equal to 8.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $397 million for Altra Industrial Motion - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 29 million for Altra Industrial Motion is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Altra Industrial Motion at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.

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Financial statements of AIMC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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