Intrinsic value of Albany International Cl A - AIN

Previous Close

$62.20

  Intrinsic Value

$45.89

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-26%

Previous close

$62.20

 
Intrinsic value

$45.89

 
Up/down potential

-26%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of AIN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.86
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.83
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.07
Revenue, $m
  780
  830
  882
  936
  992
  1,051
  1,112
  1,176
  1,243
  1,312
  1,385
  1,461
  1,541
  1,624
  1,711
  1,802
  1,897
  1,997
  2,101
  2,211
  2,326
  2,446
  2,572
  2,704
  2,843
  2,988
  3,140
  3,300
  3,468
  3,644
  3,828
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  497
  527
  558
  591
  625
  661
  698
  736
  777
  819
  847
  893
  941
  991
  1,044
  1,099
  1,157
  1,218
  1,281
  1,348
  1,417
  1,490
  1,567
  1,647
  1,731
  1,820
  1,912
  2,010
  2,112
  2,219
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  232
  237
  243
  249
  256
  262
  269
  275
  282
  289
  297
  304
  312
  319
  327
  335
  344
  352
  361
  370
  380
  389
  399
  409
  419
  429
  440
  451
  462
  474
Total operating expenses, $m
  688
  729
  764
  801
  840
  881
  923
  967
  1,011
  1,059
  1,108
  1,144
  1,197
  1,253
  1,310
  1,371
  1,434
  1,501
  1,570
  1,642
  1,718
  1,797
  1,879
  1,966
  2,056
  2,150
  2,249
  2,352
  2,461
  2,574
  2,693
Operating income, $m
  92
  101
  117
  134
  152
  170
  190
  210
  231
  254
  277
  318
  344
  371
  400
  430
  462
  496
  531
  568
  608
  649
  692
  738
  787
  837
  891
  948
  1,007
  1,070
  1,136
EBITDA, $m
  159
  174
  193
  214
  235
  257
  281
  306
  331
  359
  387
  417
  448
  481
  516
  552
  591
  631
  674
  718
  765
  815
  867
  922
  979
  1,040
  1,104
  1,171
  1,242
  1,317
  1,395
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  90
  95
  100
  105
Earnings before tax, $m
  78
  86
  101
  116
  132
  148
  166
  184
  204
  224
  245
  284
  307
  332
  358
  386
  415
  446
  478
  512
  547
  585
  625
  667
  711
  757
  806
  858
  913
  970
  1,030
Tax expense, $m
  25
  23
  27
  31
  36
  40
  45
  50
  55
  60
  66
  77
  83
  90
  97
  104
  112
  120
  129
  138
  148
  158
  169
  180
  192
  204
  218
  232
  246
  262
  278
Net income, $m
  53
  63
  74
  85
  96
  108
  121
  135
  149
  163
  179
  207
  224
  243
  262
  282
  303
  325
  349
  374
  400
  427
  456
  487
  519
  553
  589
  626
  666
  708
  752

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  182
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,263
  1,149
  1,221
  1,296
  1,374
  1,456
  1,541
  1,629
  1,721
  1,818
  1,919
  2,024
  2,134
  2,249
  2,370
  2,496
  2,628
  2,766
  2,911
  3,062
  3,221
  3,388
  3,562
  3,745
  3,937
  4,138
  4,350
  4,571
  4,803
  5,047
  5,303
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,081
  1,149
  1,221
  1,296
  1,374
  1,456
  1,541
  1,629
  1,721
  1,818
  1,919
  2,024
  2,134
  2,249
  2,370
  2,496
  2,628
  2,766
  2,911
  3,062
  3,221
  3,388
  3,562
  3,745
  3,937
  4,138
  4,350
  4,571
  4,803
  5,047
  5,303
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
Average production assets, $m
  423
  450
  478
  507
  538
  570
  603
  637
  674
  711
  751
  792
  835
  880
  927
  977
  1,028
  1,082
  1,139
  1,198
  1,261
  1,326
  1,394
  1,466
  1,541
  1,619
  1,702
  1,789
  1,880
  1,975
  2,075
Working capital, $m
  301
  182
  193
  205
  217
  230
  244
  258
  272
  287
  303
  320
  337
  356
  375
  395
  415
  437
  460
  484
  509
  536
  563
  592
  623
  654
  688
  723
  759
  798
  838
Total debt, $m
  485
  477
  524
  573
  623
  676
  731
  789
  849
  912
  977
  1,046
  1,117
  1,192
  1,270
  1,352
  1,438
  1,528
  1,622
  1,720
  1,824
  1,932
  2,045
  2,164
  2,289
  2,420
  2,557
  2,701
  2,852
  3,010
  3,177
Total liabilities, $m
  756
  747
  794
  843
  893
  946
  1,001
  1,059
  1,119
  1,182
  1,247
  1,316
  1,387
  1,462
  1,540
  1,622
  1,708
  1,798
  1,892
  1,990
  2,094
  2,202
  2,315
  2,434
  2,559
  2,690
  2,827
  2,971
  3,122
  3,280
  3,447
Total equity, $m
  508
  402
  428
  454
  481
  510
  539
  570
  602
  636
  672
  708
  747
  787
  829
  873
  920
  968
  1,019
  1,072
  1,127
  1,186
  1,247
  1,311
  1,378
  1,448
  1,522
  1,600
  1,681
  1,766
  1,856
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,264
  1,149
  1,222
  1,297
  1,374
  1,456
  1,540
  1,629
  1,721
  1,818
  1,919
  2,024
  2,134
  2,249
  2,369
  2,495
  2,628
  2,766
  2,911
  3,062
  3,221
  3,388
  3,562
  3,745
  3,937
  4,138
  4,349
  4,571
  4,803
  5,046
  5,303
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.955
  1.190
  1.230
  1.260
  1.300
  1.330
  1.360
  1.380
  1.410
  1.430
  1.460
  1.480
  1.500
  1.510
  1.530
  1.550
  1.560
  1.580
  1.590
  1.610
  1.620
  1.630
  1.640
  1.650
  1.660
  1.670
  1.680
  1.690
  1.700
  1.700
  1.710
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.302
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  53
  63
  74
  85
  96
  108
  121
  135
  149
  163
  179
  207
  224
  243
  262
  282
  303
  325
  349
  374
  400
  427
  456
  487
  519
  553
  589
  626
  666
  708
  752
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  67
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  110
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
  129
  135
  142
  150
  158
  166
  174
  183
  193
  202
  213
  224
  235
  247
  259
Funds from operations, $m
  48
  135
  149
  164
  179
  196
  213
  230
  249
  268
  289
  306
  329
  353
  378
  404
  431
  461
  491
  523
  557
  593
  630
  670
  712
  755
  801
  850
  901
  955
  1,012
Change in working capital, $m
  -32
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  40
Cash from operations, $m
  80
  124
  138
  152
  167
  183
  199
  216
  234
  253
  273
  289
  311
  334
  358
  384
  411
  439
  468
  499
  532
  567
  603
  641
  681
  723
  768
  815
  864
  916
  971
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -183
  -193
  -202
  -213
  -224
  -235
  -247
New CAPEX, $m
  -73
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -254
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -212
  -223
  -234
  -246
  -258
  -272
  -285
  -300
  -315
  -330
  -347
Free cash flow, $m
  -174
  44
  53
  63
  73
  84
  95
  106
  118
  131
  145
  154
  169
  185
  201
  219
  237
  256
  276
  298
  320
  344
  369
  395
  423
  452
  483
  516
  550
  586
  624
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  202
  44
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  195
  44
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  19
  88
  100
  112
  124
  137
  150
  164
  178
  194
  210
  223
  241
  260
  280
  301
  323
  346
  370
  396
  423
  452
  482
  514
  548
  583
  620
  659
  701
  745
  790
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -9
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  130
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  194
  75
  86
  97
  108
  120
  133
  146
  160
  175
  186
  202
  219
  237
  256
  276
  298
  320
  343
  368
  394
  421
  450
  480
  513
  546
  582
  620
  659
  701
Discount rate, %
 
  5.50
  5.78
  6.06
  6.37
  6.69
  7.02
  7.37
  7.74
  8.13
  8.53
  8.96
  9.41
  9.88
  10.37
  10.89
  11.43
  12.01
  12.61
  13.24
  13.90
  14.59
  15.32
  16.09
  16.89
  17.74
  18.62
  19.56
  20.53
  21.56
  22.64
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  184
  67
  72
  75
  78
  80
  81
  81
  79
  77
  72
  69
  64
  60
  54
  49
  43
  38
  32
  27
  23
  18
  15
  11
  9
  6
  5
  3
  2
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Albany International Corp. is focused on textiles and materials processing business. The Company operates through two segments: Machine Clothing and Albany Engineered Composites. The Company's Machine Clothing segment supplies permeable and impermeable belts used in the manufacture of paper, paperboard, nonwovens, fiber cement and various other industrial applications. The Machine Clothing segment also supplies customized, consumable fabrics used in the manufacturing process in the pulp, corrugator, nonwovens, fiber cement, building products, and tannery and textile industries. Its Albany Engineered Composites segment includes Albany Safran Composites, LLC (ASC), in which its customer SAFRAN Group owns interest and provides engineered composite structures based on its technology to customers in the aerospace and defense industries.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Albany International Cl A (AIN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 37.7
Price to Sales 2.6
Price to Book 3.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 25
Price to Free Cash Flow 285.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 43.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 85.2%
Total Debt to Equity 95.5%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Return On Total Capital 6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Return On Equity 10.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 38.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39%
EBITDA Margin 18.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.4%
Operating Margin 11.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 10%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Net Profit Margin 6.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Effective Tax Rate 32.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.5%
Payout Ratio 41.5%

AIN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AIN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $780 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Albany International Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Albany International Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AIN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.5%, whose default value for AIN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Albany International Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Albany International Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AIN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 60%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $226 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AIN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Albany International Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Albany International Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AIN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AIN are equal to 54.2%.

Life of production assets of 8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Albany International Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AIN is equal to 21.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $508 million for Albany International Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 32.236 million for Albany International Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Albany International Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Albany International Declares Dividend   [Dec-15-17 10:40AM  Business Wire]
▶ Albany International posts 3Q profit   [Oct-30-17 06:23PM  Associated Press]
▶ Albany International Announces Earnings Release Date   [Oct-11-17 09:35AM  Business Wire]
▶ Gabelli & Companys Aerospace & Defense Conference   [Sep-05-17 09:11AM  Business Wire]
▶ Albany International Declares Dividend   [Aug-31-17 12:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Gabelli & Companys Aerospace & Defense Conference   [Aug-24-17 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Albany International posts 2Q profit   [Aug-02-17 12:14AM  Associated Press]
▶ Albany International Announces CEO Succession Plan   [Aug-01-17 05:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ The Best Stock in New Hampshire: Albany International   [Jul-20-17 08:50AM  Kiplinger]
▶ Albany International Declares Dividend   [May-12-17 09:45AM  Business Wire]
▶ Albany International posts 1Q profit   [May-05-17 05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ Albany International Reports First-Quarter Results   [May-04-17 05:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Albany International Announces Earnings Release Date   [Apr-12-17 11:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Albany International Declares Dividend   [Feb-24-17 12:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ Albany International posts 4Q profit   [05:01AM  Associated Press]
▶ Albany International Declares Dividend   [Dec-16-16 10:15AM  Business Wire]
▶ Is Albany International Corp. (AIN) Going to Burn Investors?   [Dec-09-16 04:04PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of AIN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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