Intrinsic value of Applied Industrial Technologies - AIT

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$58.30

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AIT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -8.47
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,519
  2,569
  2,628
  2,696
  2,772
  2,856
  2,948
  3,049
  3,157
  3,274
  3,400
  3,534
  3,678
  3,831
  3,993
  4,165
  4,348
  4,541
  4,745
  4,961
  5,189
  5,430
  5,683
  5,951
  6,232
  6,529
  6,841
  7,170
  7,516
  7,880
  8,263
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,500
  1,534
  1,573
  1,617
  1,665
  1,718
  1,776
  1,839
  1,906
  1,978
  2,036
  2,118
  2,206
  2,300
  2,399
  2,504
  2,615
  2,733
  2,857
  2,989
  3,127
  3,273
  3,427
  3,589
  3,760
  3,940
  4,130
  4,329
  4,539
  4,759
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  1,010
  1,035
  1,061
  1,087
  1,114
  1,142
  1,171
  1,200
  1,230
  1,261
  1,292
  1,325
  1,358
  1,392
  1,427
  1,462
  1,499
  1,536
  1,575
  1,614
  1,654
  1,696
  1,738
  1,782
  1,826
  1,872
  1,919
  1,967
  2,016
  2,066
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,431
  2,510
  2,569
  2,634
  2,704
  2,779
  2,860
  2,947
  3,039
  3,136
  3,239
  3,328
  3,443
  3,564
  3,692
  3,826
  3,966
  4,114
  4,269
  4,432
  4,603
  4,781
  4,969
  5,165
  5,371
  5,586
  5,812
  6,049
  6,296
  6,555
  6,825
Operating income, $m
  89
  60
  59
  62
  68
  76
  88
  102
  118
  138
  161
  206
  235
  267
  301
  340
  381
  427
  476
  529
  586
  648
  714
  785
  861
  943
  1,029
  1,122
  1,221
  1,326
  1,438
EBITDA, $m
  131
  102
  103
  106
  112
  121
  133
  148
  166
  187
  210
  237
  267
  300
  336
  376
  419
  466
  517
  572
  631
  695
  764
  837
  915
  999
  1,089
  1,184
  1,286
  1,394
  1,510
Interest expense (income), $m
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  33
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  48
  50
  53
  57
  60
Earnings before tax, $m
  79
  48
  48
  50
  55
  63
  73
  86
  102
  121
  142
  187
  214
  245
  278
  315
  355
  399
  446
  498
  553
  613
  677
  745
  819
  898
  982
  1,072
  1,167
  1,269
  1,378
Tax expense, $m
  49
  13
  13
  13
  15
  17
  20
  23
  28
  33
  38
  50
  58
  66
  75
  85
  96
  108
  121
  134
  149
  165
  183
  201
  221
  242
  265
  289
  315
  343
  372
Net income, $m
  30
  35
  35
  36
  40
  46
  53
  63
  75
  88
  104
  137
  156
  179
  203
  230
  259
  291
  326
  363
  404
  447
  494
  544
  598
  655
  717
  782
  852
  927
  1,006

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  60
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,312
  1,277
  1,306
  1,340
  1,378
  1,419
  1,465
  1,515
  1,569
  1,627
  1,690
  1,757
  1,828
  1,904
  1,985
  2,070
  2,161
  2,257
  2,358
  2,466
  2,579
  2,699
  2,825
  2,958
  3,098
  3,245
  3,400
  3,564
  3,736
  3,917
  4,107
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,252
  1,277
  1,306
  1,340
  1,378
  1,419
  1,465
  1,515
  1,569
  1,627
  1,690
  1,757
  1,828
  1,904
  1,985
  2,070
  2,161
  2,257
  2,358
  2,466
  2,579
  2,699
  2,825
  2,958
  3,098
  3,245
  3,400
  3,564
  3,736
  3,917
  4,107
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.012
  2.012
  2.012
  2.012
  2.012
  2.013
  2.012
  2.013
  2.012
  2.012
  2.012
  2.011
  2.012
  2.012
  2.012
  2.012
  2.012
  2.012
  2.012
  2.012
  2.012
  2.012
  2.012
  2.012
  2.012
  2.012
  2.012
  2.012
  2.012
  2.012
  2.012
Average production assets, $m
  248
  252
  258
  264
  272
  280
  289
  299
  309
  321
  333
  346
  360
  375
  391
  408
  426
  445
  465
  486
  509
  532
  557
  583
  611
  640
  670
  703
  737
  772
  810
Working capital, $m
  508
  460
  470
  483
  496
  511
  528
  546
  565
  586
  609
  633
  658
  686
  715
  746
  778
  813
  849
  888
  929
  972
  1,017
  1,065
  1,116
  1,169
  1,225
  1,283
  1,345
  1,411
  1,479
Total debt, $m
  328
  338
  353
  371
  390
  412
  436
  462
  490
  520
  553
  587
  625
  664
  706
  750
  798
  848
  900
  956
  1,015
  1,077
  1,143
  1,212
  1,285
  1,361
  1,442
  1,527
  1,617
  1,711
  1,810
Total liabilities, $m
  654
  664
  679
  697
  716
  738
  762
  788
  816
  846
  879
  913
  951
  990
  1,032
  1,076
  1,124
  1,174
  1,226
  1,282
  1,341
  1,403
  1,469
  1,538
  1,611
  1,687
  1,768
  1,853
  1,943
  2,037
  2,136
Total equity, $m
  658
  613
  627
  643
  661
  681
  703
  727
  753
  781
  811
  843
  877
  914
  953
  994
  1,037
  1,083
  1,132
  1,184
  1,238
  1,295
  1,356
  1,420
  1,487
  1,558
  1,632
  1,711
  1,793
  1,880
  1,971
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,312
  1,277
  1,306
  1,340
  1,377
  1,419
  1,465
  1,515
  1,569
  1,627
  1,690
  1,756
  1,828
  1,904
  1,985
  2,070
  2,161
  2,257
  2,358
  2,466
  2,579
  2,698
  2,825
  2,958
  3,098
  3,245
  3,400
  3,564
  3,736
  3,917
  4,107
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.498
  0.550
  0.560
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.620
  0.640
  0.650
  0.670
  0.680
  0.700
  0.710
  0.730
  0.740
  0.760
  0.770
  0.780
  0.800
  0.810
  0.820
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.478
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  30
  35
  35
  36
  40
  46
  53
  63
  75
  88
  104
  137
  156
  179
  203
  230
  259
  291
  326
  363
  404
  447
  494
  544
  598
  655
  717
  782
  852
  927
  1,006
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  42
  43
  43
  44
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
Funds from operations, $m
  184
  78
  78
  80
  84
  91
  99
  110
  122
  137
  154
  167
  188
  212
  238
  266
  297
  331
  367
  406
  449
  494
  543
  596
  652
  712
  776
  844
  917
  995
  1,078
Change in working capital, $m
  23
  9
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
Cash from operations, $m
  161
  12
  67
  68
  71
  76
  83
  92
  103
  116
  131
  143
  163
  185
  209
  235
  264
  296
  330
  368
  408
  451
  498
  548
  601
  659
  720
  786
  855
  930
  1,009
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
New CAPEX, $m
  -13
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -75
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -80
  -83
  -88
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
Free cash flow, $m
  86
  -14
  39
  39
  40
  43
  49
  56
  66
  77
  91
  100
  118
  138
  160
  184
  210
  239
  271
  305
  342
  383
  426
  472
  522
  576
  633
  694
  759
  829
  903
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  7
  13
  15
  17
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  39
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  99
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -37
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -49
  13
  15
  17
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  39
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  99
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  33
  -1
  54
  56
  60
  65
  73
  82
  94
  107
  123
  135
  155
  177
  201
  228
  257
  289
  324
  361
  401
  445
  491
  541
  595
  652
  714
  779
  849
  923
  1,002
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  83
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -91
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  57
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  44
  40
  40
  42
  45
  51
  58
  68
  79
  93
  103
  121
  141
  163
  187
  214
  243
  275
  310
  347
  387
  431
  478
  528
  582
  639
  701
  766
  836
  911
Discount rate, %
 
  4.70
  4.94
  5.18
  5.44
  5.71
  6.00
  6.30
  6.61
  6.94
  7.29
  7.66
  8.04
  8.44
  8.86
  9.31
  9.77
  10.26
  10.77
  11.31
  11.88
  12.47
  13.09
  13.75
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.71
  17.55
  18.42
  19.35
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  42
  37
  34
  34
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  46
  48
  49
  50
  49
  48
  46
  44
  40
  37
  33
  29
  25
  21
  17
  14
  11
  8
  6
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. distributes industrial products in the United States, Canada, Puerto Rico, Mexico, Australia, and New Zealand. The company offers its products for maintenance, repair, and operational needs, as well as original equipment manufacturing applications. It operates through two segments, Service Center-Based Distribution and Fluid Power Businesses. The company distributes bearings, power transmission components, fluid power components and systems, industrial rubber products, linear motion components, tools, safety products, oilfield supplies, and other industrial and maintenance supplies; and fluid power products, such as hydraulic, pneumatic, lubrication, and filtration components and systems. It also operates fabricated rubber shops that modify and repair conveyor belts, as well as provide hose assemblies; and field crews to install and repair conveyor belts and rubber lining at customer locations. In addition, the company rebuilds or assembles speed reducers, pumps, valves, cylinders, and electric and hydraulic motors, as well as custom machining products; and offers equipment repair services, as well as technical advice to customers. Further, it provides maintenance training and inventory management services. The company offers industrial products through a network of service centers; and fluid power products directly to customers or through service centers. It serves various industries, including agriculture and food processing, automotive, chemicals and petrochemicals, fabricated metals, forest products, industrial machinery and equipment, mining, oil and gas, primary metals, transportation, and utilities, as well as government entities. Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Applied Industrial Technologies (AIT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 75.9
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 3.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 15.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -8.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -13.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 20
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 49.4%
Total Debt to Equity 49.8%
Interest Coverage 9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Return On Total Capital 2.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Return On Equity 4.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Asset Turnover 1.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 28.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28%
EBITDA Margin 5.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Operating Margin 3.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Net Profit Margin 1.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Effective Tax Rate 62%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.9%
Payout Ratio 143.3%

AIT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AIT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2519 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Applied Industrial Technologies. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Applied Industrial Technologies. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AIT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.7%, whose default value for AIT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Applied Industrial Technologies, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Applied Industrial Technologies.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AIT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 58.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $985 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AIT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Applied Industrial Technologies.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Applied Industrial Technologies. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AIT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AIT are equal to 9.8%.

Life of production assets of 11.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Applied Industrial Technologies operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AIT is equal to 17.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $658 million for Applied Industrial Technologies - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 38.515 million for Applied Industrial Technologies is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Applied Industrial Technologies at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.2 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Applied Industrial Technologies posts 3Q profit   [Apr-27-17 06:50AM  Associated Press]
Stock chart of AIT Financial statements of AIT Annual reports of AIT
Valuation of Stocks

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