Intrinsic value of Apartment Investment&Management - AIV

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$43.74

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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$43.74

 
Intrinsic value

$2.85

 
Up/down potential

-93%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as AIV.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AIV stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.53
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  996
  1,016
  1,039
  1,066
  1,096
  1,129
  1,166
  1,205
  1,248
  1,295
  1,344
  1,397
  1,454
  1,515
  1,579
  1,647
  1,719
  1,795
  1,876
  1,962
  2,052
  2,147
  2,247
  2,353
  2,464
  2,582
  2,705
  2,835
  2,972
  3,116
  3,267
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  751
  768
  788
  810
  834
  861
  891
  923
  957
  993
  1,033
  1,075
  1,119
  1,167
  1,217
  1,270
  1,327
  1,387
  1,450
  1,516
  1,586
  1,661
  1,739
  1,821
  1,908
  1,999
  2,095
  2,196
  2,303
  2,414
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  749
  751
  768
  788
  810
  834
  861
  891
  923
  957
  993
  1,033
  1,075
  1,119
  1,167
  1,217
  1,270
  1,327
  1,387
  1,450
  1,516
  1,586
  1,661
  1,739
  1,821
  1,908
  1,999
  2,095
  2,196
  2,303
  2,414
Operating income, $m
  247
  265
  271
  278
  286
  295
  304
  315
  326
  338
  351
  365
  380
  395
  412
  430
  449
  469
  490
  512
  535
  560
  586
  614
  643
  674
  706
  740
  776
  813
  853
EBITDA, $m
  580
  604
  618
  634
  652
  672
  693
  717
  743
  770
  800
  831
  865
  901
  939
  980
  1,022
  1,068
  1,116
  1,167
  1,220
  1,277
  1,337
  1,399
  1,466
  1,535
  1,609
  1,686
  1,768
  1,853
  1,943
Interest expense (income), $m
  200
  201
  206
  212
  218
  225
  232
  241
  250
  260
  271
  282
  294
  307
  321
  336
  352
  369
  386
  405
  425
  446
  468
  491
  515
  541
  568
  597
  627
  658
  692
Earnings before tax, $m
  64
  64
  65
  67
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  83
  85
  88
  91
  94
  97
  100
  103
  107
  111
  115
  119
  123
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  155
  161
Tax expense, $m
  -25
  17
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
Net income, $m
  430
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  57
  59
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  71
  73
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  113
  118

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  61
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,233
  6,310
  6,455
  6,621
  6,807
  7,014
  7,240
  7,487
  7,754
  8,041
  8,350
  8,680
  9,032
  9,407
  9,806
  10,229
  10,677
  11,152
  11,654
  12,184
  12,744
  13,334
  13,957
  14,614
  15,306
  16,034
  16,801
  17,609
  18,459
  19,353
  20,293
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,172
  6,310
  6,455
  6,621
  6,807
  7,014
  7,240
  7,487
  7,754
  8,041
  8,350
  8,680
  9,032
  9,407
  9,806
  10,229
  10,677
  11,152
  11,654
  12,184
  12,744
  13,334
  13,957
  14,614
  15,306
  16,034
  16,801
  17,609
  18,459
  19,353
  20,293
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
  0.161
Average production assets, $m
  5,685
  5,799
  5,932
  6,085
  6,256
  6,446
  6,654
  6,880
  7,126
  7,390
  7,673
  7,977
  8,301
  8,645
  9,012
  9,400
  9,812
  10,248
  10,709
  11,197
  11,711
  12,254
  12,826
  13,430
  14,066
  14,735
  15,440
  16,182
  16,963
  17,785
  18,649
Working capital, $m
  0
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
Total debt, $m
  3,885
  3,964
  4,068
  4,187
  4,320
  4,468
  4,630
  4,807
  4,998
  5,203
  5,424
  5,661
  5,913
  6,182
  6,467
  6,770
  7,091
  7,431
  7,790
  8,170
  8,570
  8,993
  9,439
  9,909
  10,405
  10,927
  11,476
  12,054
  12,662
  13,302
  13,976
Total liabilities, $m
  4,439
  4,518
  4,622
  4,741
  4,874
  5,022
  5,184
  5,361
  5,552
  5,757
  5,978
  6,215
  6,467
  6,736
  7,021
  7,324
  7,645
  7,985
  8,344
  8,724
  9,124
  9,547
  9,993
  10,463
  10,959
  11,481
  12,030
  12,608
  13,216
  13,856
  14,530
Total equity, $m
  1,794
  1,792
  1,833
  1,880
  1,933
  1,992
  2,056
  2,126
  2,202
  2,284
  2,371
  2,465
  2,565
  2,672
  2,785
  2,905
  3,032
  3,167
  3,310
  3,460
  3,619
  3,787
  3,964
  4,150
  4,347
  4,554
  4,772
  5,001
  5,242
  5,496
  5,763
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,233
  6,310
  6,455
  6,621
  6,807
  7,014
  7,240
  7,487
  7,754
  8,041
  8,349
  8,680
  9,032
  9,408
  9,806
  10,229
  10,677
  11,152
  11,654
  12,184
  12,743
  13,334
  13,957
  14,613
  15,306
  16,035
  16,802
  17,609
  18,458
  19,352
  20,293
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.166
  2.210
  2.220
  2.230
  2.230
  2.240
  2.250
  2.260
  2.270
  2.280
  2.290
  2.300
  2.310
  2.310
  2.320
  2.330
  2.340
  2.350
  2.350
  2.360
  2.370
  2.370
  2.380
  2.390
  2.390
  2.400
  2.410
  2.410
  2.420
  2.420
  2.420
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284
  0.284

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  430
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  57
  59
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  71
  73
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  113
  118
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  333
  339
  347
  356
  366
  377
  389
  402
  417
  432
  449
  466
  485
  506
  527
  550
  574
  599
  626
  655
  685
  717
  750
  785
  823
  862
  903
  946
  992
  1,040
  1,091
Funds from operations, $m
  352
  386
  394
  405
  416
  428
  442
  456
  472
  489
  507
  527
  548
  570
  593
  618
  644
  672
  702
  733
  766
  800
  837
  875
  916
  959
  1,004
  1,051
  1,101
  1,153
  1,208
Change in working capital, $m
  -26
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
Cash from operations, $m
  378
  498
  395
  406
  417
  430
  443
  458
  474
  491
  509
  529
  550
  572
  596
  621
  647
  676
  705
  736
  770
  804
  841
  880
  921
  964
  1,009
  1,056
  1,107
  1,159
  1,215
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -332
  -339
  -347
  -356
  -366
  -377
  -389
  -402
  -417
  -432
  -449
  -466
  -485
  -506
  -527
  -550
  -574
  -599
  -626
  -655
  -685
  -717
  -750
  -785
  -823
  -862
  -903
  -946
  -992
  -1,040
New CAPEX, $m
  -645
  -114
  -133
  -152
  -171
  -190
  -208
  -227
  -245
  -264
  -284
  -303
  -324
  -345
  -366
  -389
  -412
  -436
  -461
  -487
  -514
  -543
  -572
  -603
  -636
  -670
  -705
  -742
  -781
  -822
  -864
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -98
  -446
  -472
  -499
  -527
  -556
  -585
  -616
  -647
  -681
  -716
  -752
  -790
  -830
  -872
  -916
  -962
  -1,010
  -1,060
  -1,113
  -1,169
  -1,228
  -1,289
  -1,353
  -1,421
  -1,493
  -1,567
  -1,645
  -1,727
  -1,814
  -1,904
Free cash flow, $m
  280
  51
  -77
  -94
  -110
  -126
  -142
  -158
  -174
  -190
  -206
  -223
  -240
  -258
  -276
  -295
  -314
  -334
  -355
  -377
  -400
  -423
  -448
  -474
  -500
  -529
  -558
  -589
  -621
  -654
  -690
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  37
  97
  104
  119
  133
  148
  162
  177
  191
  206
  221
  236
  252
  269
  285
  303
  321
  340
  359
  380
  401
  423
  446
  470
  495
  522
  549
  578
  608
  640
  673
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -35
  0
  14
  22
  30
  37
  44
  51
  58
  66
  73
  80
  88
  96
  104
  112
  121
  129
  139
  148
  158
  168
  179
  190
  202
  214
  226
  240
  254
  268
  283
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -54
  97
  118
  141
  163
  185
  206
  228
  249
  272
  294
  316
  340
  365
  389
  415
  442
  469
  498
  528
  559
  591
  625
  660
  697
  736
  775
  818
  862
  908
  956
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  226
  148
  27
  25
  23
  22
  20
  19
  17
  16
  15
  13
  12
  11
  9
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  1
  0
  -2
  -3
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -172
  -41
  -41
  -47
  -53
  -59
  -64
  -70
  -76
  -82
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -107
  -113
  -120
  -127
  -135
  -143
  -151
  -159
  -168
  -177
  -186
  -196
  -207
  -218
  -229
  -241
  -254
  -267
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  43
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  150
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  10.50
  11.03
  11.58
  12.16
  12.76
  13.40
  14.07
  14.77
  15.51
  16.29
  17.10
  17.96
  18.86
  19.80
  20.79
  21.83
  22.92
  24.07
  25.27
  26.53
  27.86
  29.25
  30.72
  32.25
  33.86
  35.56
  37.33
  39.20
  41.16
  43.22
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  136
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  99.8
  99.5
  99.1
  98.6
  98.0
  97.4
  96.7
  95.9
  95.2
  94.3
  93.4
  92.5
  91.6
  90.7
  89.7
  88.7
  87.7
  86.7
  85.7
  84.6
  83.6
  82.6
  81.5
  80.5
  79.5
  78.5
  77.4
  76.4
  75.4

Apartment Investment and Management Company is a real estate investment trust. The firm engages in the acquisition, ownership, management, and redevelopment of apartment properties. It invests in real estate markets of United States. The firm primarily invests in apartment properties. Apartment Investment and Management Company was founded on January 10, 1994 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Apartment Investment&Management (AIV)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16
Price to Sales 6.9
Price to Book 3.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -25.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 18.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 9.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 215.6%
Total Debt to Equity 216.6%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Return On Total Capital 7.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Return On Equity 25.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.6%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 64.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 63.4%
EBITDA Margin 59.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 58.6%
Operating Margin 24.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Net Profit Margin 43.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.3%
Effective Tax Rate -39.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -41.3%
Payout Ratio 50.2%

AIV stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AIV stock intrinsic value calculation we used $996 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Apartment Investment&Management. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Apartment Investment&Management. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AIV stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.5%, whose default value for AIV is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Apartment Investment&Management, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Apartment Investment&Management.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AIV stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 73.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AIV stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.2% for Apartment Investment&Management.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Apartment Investment&Management. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AIV stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AIV are equal to 570.8%.

Life of production assets of 17.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Apartment Investment&Management operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AIV is equal to -4.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1794 million for Apartment Investment&Management - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 157.159 million for Apartment Investment&Management is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Apartment Investment&Management at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.9 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Apartment Investment Management reports 1Q results   [Apr-27-17 04:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ Aimco Reports First Quarter Results   [04:18PM  Business Wire]
▶ [$$] Big Apartment Landlord Sues Airbnb   [03:42PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Big Apartment Landlord Sues Airbnb   [03:42PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Aimco Reports Fourth Quarter Results   [04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ 4 Stocks Expected to Hike Dividends Next Week   [Jan-20-17 05:38PM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Aimco Announces Closing of $600 Million Credit Facility   [Dec-22-16 04:15PM  Business Wire]
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Stock chart of AIV Financial statements of AIV
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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