Intrinsic value of Akamai Technologies - AKAM

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$51.53

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AKAM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 8.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.51
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.19
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.10
Revenue, $m
  2,340
  2,508
  2,684
  2,866
  3,055
  3,252
  3,456
  3,670
  3,892
  4,123
  4,365
  4,616
  4,879
  5,153
  5,440
  5,739
  6,052
  6,379
  6,722
  7,080
  7,455
  7,848
  8,259
  8,690
  9,141
  9,614
  10,110
  10,630
  11,175
  11,747
  12,346
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,968
  2,097
  2,230
  2,370
  2,514
  2,665
  2,822
  2,985
  3,155
  3,333
  3,395
  3,588
  3,790
  4,001
  4,221
  4,451
  4,692
  4,944
  5,207
  5,483
  5,772
  6,074
  6,391
  6,723
  7,071
  7,436
  7,818
  8,219
  8,640
  9,080
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,880
  1,968
  2,097
  2,230
  2,370
  2,514
  2,665
  2,822
  2,985
  3,155
  3,333
  3,395
  3,588
  3,790
  4,001
  4,221
  4,451
  4,692
  4,944
  5,207
  5,483
  5,772
  6,074
  6,391
  6,723
  7,071
  7,436
  7,818
  8,219
  8,640
  9,080
Operating income, $m
  460
  541
  587
  635
  685
  737
  791
  848
  907
  968
  1,032
  1,221
  1,291
  1,363
  1,439
  1,518
  1,601
  1,687
  1,778
  1,873
  1,972
  2,076
  2,185
  2,299
  2,418
  2,543
  2,674
  2,812
  2,956
  3,107
  3,266
EBITDA, $m
  794
  723
  773
  826
  880
  937
  996
  1,057
  1,121
  1,188
  1,258
  1,330
  1,406
  1,485
  1,567
  1,654
  1,744
  1,838
  1,937
  2,040
  2,148
  2,261
  2,380
  2,504
  2,634
  2,770
  2,913
  3,063
  3,220
  3,384
  3,557
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  22
  25
  28
  31
  35
  38
  42
  45
  49
  53
  57
  62
  66
  71
  76
  81
  86
  92
  98
  104
  110
  117
  124
  131
  139
  147
  156
  165
  174
  184
Earnings before tax, $m
  459
  518
  562
  607
  654
  703
  753
  806
  861
  919
  979
  1,164
  1,229
  1,297
  1,368
  1,442
  1,520
  1,601
  1,686
  1,775
  1,868
  1,966
  2,068
  2,175
  2,287
  2,404
  2,527
  2,656
  2,791
  2,933
  3,082
Tax expense, $m
  143
  140
  152
  164
  177
  190
  203
  218
  233
  248
  264
  314
  332
  350
  369
  389
  410
  432
  455
  479
  504
  531
  558
  587
  617
  649
  682
  717
  754
  792
  832
Net income, $m
  316
  378
  410
  443
  477
  513
  550
  589
  629
  671
  714
  850
  897
  947
  999
  1,053
  1,110
  1,169
  1,231
  1,296
  1,364
  1,435
  1,509
  1,587
  1,669
  1,755
  1,845
  1,939
  2,038
  2,141
  2,250

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  837
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,373
  3,789
  4,054
  4,329
  4,615
  4,912
  5,221
  5,543
  5,879
  6,228
  6,593
  6,973
  7,370
  7,784
  8,217
  8,669
  9,142
  9,636
  10,154
  10,695
  11,261
  11,854
  12,476
  13,127
  13,808
  14,523
  15,272
  16,057
  16,881
  17,744
  18,650
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,536
  3,789
  4,054
  4,329
  4,615
  4,912
  5,221
  5,543
  5,879
  6,228
  6,593
  6,973
  7,370
  7,784
  8,217
  8,669
  9,142
  9,636
  10,154
  10,695
  11,261
  11,854
  12,476
  13,127
  13,808
  14,523
  15,272
  16,057
  16,881
  17,744
  18,650
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
Average production assets, $m
  553
  592
  633
  676
  721
  767
  816
  866
  918
  973
  1,030
  1,089
  1,151
  1,216
  1,284
  1,354
  1,428
  1,506
  1,586
  1,671
  1,759
  1,852
  1,949
  2,051
  2,157
  2,269
  2,386
  2,509
  2,637
  2,772
  2,914
Working capital, $m
  935
  105
  113
  120
  128
  137
  145
  154
  163
  173
  183
  194
  205
  216
  228
  241
  254
  268
  282
  297
  313
  330
  347
  365
  384
  404
  425
  446
  469
  493
  519
Total debt, $m
  640
  723
  808
  898
  991
  1,087
  1,188
  1,293
  1,402
  1,515
  1,634
  1,757
  1,886
  2,021
  2,162
  2,309
  2,462
  2,623
  2,791
  2,967
  3,151
  3,344
  3,546
  3,757
  3,979
  4,211
  4,454
  4,710
  4,977
  5,258
  5,552
Total liabilities, $m
  1,149
  1,232
  1,317
  1,407
  1,500
  1,596
  1,697
  1,802
  1,911
  2,024
  2,143
  2,266
  2,395
  2,530
  2,671
  2,818
  2,971
  3,132
  3,300
  3,476
  3,660
  3,853
  4,055
  4,266
  4,488
  4,720
  4,963
  5,219
  5,486
  5,767
  6,061
Total equity, $m
  3,224
  2,558
  2,736
  2,922
  3,115
  3,315
  3,524
  3,742
  3,968
  4,204
  4,450
  4,707
  4,975
  5,254
  5,547
  5,852
  6,171
  6,505
  6,854
  7,219
  7,601
  8,002
  8,421
  8,860
  9,321
  9,803
  10,309
  10,839
  11,395
  11,977
  12,589
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,373
  3,790
  4,053
  4,329
  4,615
  4,911
  5,221
  5,544
  5,879
  6,228
  6,593
  6,973
  7,370
  7,784
  8,218
  8,670
  9,142
  9,637
  10,154
  10,695
  11,261
  11,855
  12,476
  13,126
  13,809
  14,523
  15,272
  16,058
  16,881
  17,744
  18,650
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.199
  0.280
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.370
  0.380
  0.380
  0.390
  0.390
  0.400
  0.400
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  316
  378
  410
  443
  477
  513
  550
  589
  629
  671
  714
  850
  897
  947
  999
  1,053
  1,110
  1,169
  1,231
  1,296
  1,364
  1,435
  1,509
  1,587
  1,669
  1,755
  1,845
  1,939
  2,038
  2,141
  2,250
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  334
  182
  186
  191
  195
  200
  204
  210
  215
  220
  226
  109
  115
  122
  128
  135
  143
  151
  159
  167
  176
  185
  195
  205
  216
  227
  239
  251
  264
  277
  291
Funds from operations, $m
  906
  560
  596
  633
  672
  713
  754
  798
  844
  891
  940
  959
  1,012
  1,069
  1,127
  1,188
  1,252
  1,319
  1,390
  1,463
  1,540
  1,620
  1,704
  1,792
  1,885
  1,982
  2,083
  2,190
  2,301
  2,418
  2,541
Change in working capital, $m
  40
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
Cash from operations, $m
  866
  553
  589
  626
  664
  704
  746
  789
  834
  881
  930
  948
  1,001
  1,057
  1,115
  1,176
  1,239
  1,306
  1,375
  1,448
  1,524
  1,604
  1,687
  1,774
  1,866
  1,962
  2,062
  2,168
  2,278
  2,394
  2,516
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -68
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -143
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -176
  -185
  -195
  -205
  -216
  -227
  -239
  -251
  -264
  -277
New CAPEX, $m
  -316
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -141
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -469
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -113
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -171
  -180
  -190
  -199
  -209
  -220
  -232
  -244
  -256
  -269
  -282
  -297
  -312
  -328
  -344
  -362
  -380
  -399
  -418
Free cash flow, $m
  397
  459
  488
  520
  552
  586
  621
  657
  695
  735
  776
  786
  830
  877
  926
  977
  1,030
  1,086
  1,144
  1,205
  1,268
  1,335
  1,405
  1,478
  1,554
  1,635
  1,719
  1,807
  1,899
  1,996
  2,097
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  83
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  118
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  212
  222
  232
  243
  255
  268
  281
  294
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -314
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -354
  83
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  118
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  212
  222
  232
  243
  255
  268
  281
  294
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  35
  542
  574
  609
  645
  682
  721
  762
  804
  848
  894
  909
  959
  1,012
  1,067
  1,124
  1,184
  1,246
  1,312
  1,381
  1,452
  1,528
  1,607
  1,689
  1,776
  1,867
  1,962
  2,062
  2,167
  2,276
  2,392
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -103
  -171
  -179
  -186
  -193
  -201
  -209
  -217
  -226
  -236
  -246
  -257
  -268
  -280
  -292
  -305
  -319
  -334
  -349
  -365
  -382
  -400
  -419
  -439
  -460
  -482
  -506
  -530
  -556
  -583
  -611
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  837
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,208
  396
  423
  452
  482
  512
  544
  578
  612
  648
  653
  692
  732
  774
  819
  865
  913
  963
  1,015
  1,070
  1,127
  1,187
  1,250
  1,316
  1,384
  1,456
  1,532
  1,611
  1,694
  1,780
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,158
  362
  368
  372
  373
  372
  368
  361
  352
  340
  310
  295
  278
  260
  240
  220
  199
  177
  156
  136
  117
  99
  82
  67
  54
  42
  33
  25
  18
  13
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Akamai Technologies, Inc. provides cloud services for delivering, optimizing, and securing content and business applications over the Internet in the United States and internationally. The company offers performance and security solutions designed to help Websites and business applications operate while offering protection against security threats. It also provides media content delivery solutions that are designed to deliver movies, television shows, live events, games, social media, software downloads, and other content on the Internet in fixed line and mobile networks; adaptive delivery solutions for streaming video content; and download delivery solution that offers accelerated distribution for large file downloads, including games, progressive media files, documents, and other file-based content. In addition, the company offers a suite of analytics tools to monitor online video viewer experiences and the effectiveness of Web software downloads, while measuring audience engagement, and quality of service performance; and NetStorage, a cloud storage solution, as well as media services to deliver live and on-demand content to various devices and platforms. Further, it provides cloud security solutions, which help customers avoid data theft and downtime, and protect Internet-facing infrastructure; and cloud networking solutions to help customers enhance enterprise branch office and retail store productivity and revenue by accelerating applications, reducing bandwidth costs, and extending the Internet and public clouds into private wide area networks. Additionally, the company offers network operator solutions that are designed to help carriers to operate a network that capitalizes on traffic growth and new subscriber services; and professional services and solutions. It sells its solutions through direct sales and service organization; and through active channel partners. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Akamai Technologies (AKAM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 28.3
Price to Sales 3.8
Price to Book 2.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -29%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 19.9%
Total Debt to Equity 19.9%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Return On Total Capital 8.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Return On Equity 10%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 65.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 67.1%
EBITDA Margin 33.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.1%
Operating Margin 19.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 19.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.6%
Net Profit Margin 13.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15%
Effective Tax Rate 31.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

AKAM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AKAM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2340 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Akamai Technologies. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Akamai Technologies. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AKAM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AKAM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Akamai Technologies, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Akamai Technologies.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AKAM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 78.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AKAM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Akamai Technologies.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Akamai Technologies. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AKAM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AKAM are equal to 23.6%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Akamai Technologies operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AKAM is equal to 4.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3224 million for Akamai Technologies - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 172.61 million for Akamai Technologies is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Akamai Technologies at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $8.9 billion.


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Stock chart of AKAM Financial statements of AKAM Annual reports of AKAM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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