Intrinsic value of Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Series A) ADR - AKO-A

Previous Close

$23.21

  Intrinsic Value

$15.80

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-32%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$23.21

 
Intrinsic value

$15.80

 
Up/down potential

-32%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AKO-A stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -5.33
  9.20
  8.78
  8.40
  8.06
  7.76
  7.48
  7.23
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.46
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.86
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
Revenue, $m
  2,680
  2,927
  3,184
  3,451
  3,729
  4,018
  4,319
  4,631
  4,956
  5,293
  5,644
  6,009
  6,389
  6,784
  7,196
  7,624
  8,072
  8,538
  9,025
  9,533
  10,064
  10,618
  11,198
  11,804
  12,438
  13,102
  13,796
  14,524
  15,285
  16,083
  16,919
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,632
  2,862
  3,101
  3,350
  3,609
  3,878
  4,157
  4,447
  4,749
  5,063
  5,373
  5,713
  6,066
  6,434
  6,818
  7,218
  7,635
  8,070
  8,524
  8,999
  9,495
  10,013
  10,555
  11,122
  11,716
  12,337
  12,987
  13,668
  14,382
  15,129
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,395
  2,632
  2,862
  3,101
  3,350
  3,609
  3,878
  4,157
  4,447
  4,749
  5,063
  5,373
  5,713
  6,066
  6,434
  6,818
  7,218
  7,635
  8,070
  8,524
  8,999
  9,495
  10,013
  10,555
  11,122
  11,716
  12,337
  12,987
  13,668
  14,382
  15,129
Operating income, $m
  285
  294
  321
  350
  379
  410
  441
  474
  509
  544
  582
  636
  676
  718
  761
  807
  854
  903
  955
  1,008
  1,065
  1,123
  1,185
  1,249
  1,316
  1,386
  1,459
  1,536
  1,617
  1,701
  1,790
EBITDA, $m
  285
  528
  574
  623
  673
  725
  779
  835
  894
  955
  1,018
  1,084
  1,152
  1,224
  1,298
  1,375
  1,456
  1,540
  1,628
  1,720
  1,815
  1,915
  2,020
  2,129
  2,244
  2,363
  2,489
  2,620
  2,757
  2,901
  3,052
Interest expense (income), $m
  -75
  38
  44
  51
  58
  65
  73
  81
  89
  97
  106
  115
  124
  134
  144
  155
  166
  178
  190
  202
  216
  229
  244
  259
  274
  291
  308
  326
  345
  364
  385
Earnings before tax, $m
  212
  256
  277
  298
  321
  344
  369
  394
  420
  447
  476
  521
  552
  584
  617
  652
  688
  725
  765
  806
  849
  894
  941
  990
  1,041
  1,095
  1,151
  1,210
  1,272
  1,337
  1,405
Tax expense, $m
  73
  69
  75
  81
  87
  93
  100
  106
  113
  121
  128
  141
  149
  158
  167
  176
  186
  196
  207
  218
  229
  241
  254
  267
  281
  296
  311
  327
  343
  361
  379
Net income, $m
  136
  187
  202
  218
  234
  251
  269
  288
  307
  327
  347
  380
  403
  426
  450
  476
  502
  530
  558
  588
  620
  653
  687
  723
  760
  799
  841
  884
  929
  976
  1,025

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  297
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,316
  3,296
  3,585
  3,886
  4,200
  4,525
  4,864
  5,215
  5,581
  5,961
  6,356
  6,767
  7,194
  7,640
  8,103
  8,586
  9,090
  9,615
  10,163
  10,735
  11,333
  11,957
  12,610
  13,293
  14,007
  14,754
  15,536
  16,355
  17,213
  18,112
  19,053
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,019
  3,296
  3,585
  3,886
  4,200
  4,525
  4,864
  5,215
  5,581
  5,961
  6,356
  6,767
  7,194
  7,640
  8,103
  8,586
  9,090
  9,615
  10,163
  10,735
  11,333
  11,957
  12,610
  13,293
  14,007
  14,754
  15,536
  16,355
  17,213
  18,112
  19,053
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
Average production assets, $m
  2,001
  2,183
  2,375
  2,574
  2,782
  2,998
  3,222
  3,455
  3,697
  3,949
  4,211
  4,483
  4,766
  5,061
  5,368
  5,688
  6,021
  6,369
  6,732
  7,111
  7,507
  7,921
  8,354
  8,806
  9,279
  9,774
  10,292
  10,835
  11,403
  11,998
  12,622
Working capital, $m
  200
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  1,184
  1,270
  1,460
  1,658
  1,864
  2,078
  2,300
  2,532
  2,772
  3,021
  3,281
  3,551
  3,832
  4,124
  4,429
  4,746
  5,077
  5,422
  5,782
  6,158
  6,551
  6,961
  7,390
  7,838
  8,308
  8,798
  9,312
  9,850
  10,414
  11,004
  11,623
Total liabilities, $m
  2,078
  2,165
  2,355
  2,553
  2,759
  2,973
  3,195
  3,427
  3,667
  3,916
  4,176
  4,446
  4,727
  5,019
  5,324
  5,641
  5,972
  6,317
  6,677
  7,053
  7,446
  7,856
  8,285
  8,733
  9,203
  9,693
  10,207
  10,745
  11,309
  11,899
  12,518
Total equity, $m
  1,237
  1,130
  1,230
  1,333
  1,440
  1,552
  1,668
  1,789
  1,914
  2,045
  2,180
  2,321
  2,468
  2,620
  2,779
  2,945
  3,118
  3,298
  3,486
  3,682
  3,887
  4,101
  4,325
  4,559
  4,804
  5,061
  5,329
  5,610
  5,904
  6,212
  6,535
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,315
  3,295
  3,585
  3,886
  4,199
  4,525
  4,863
  5,216
  5,581
  5,961
  6,356
  6,767
  7,195
  7,639
  8,103
  8,586
  9,090
  9,615
  10,163
  10,735
  11,333
  11,957
  12,610
  13,292
  14,007
  14,754
  15,536
  16,355
  17,213
  18,111
  19,053
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.957
  1.120
  1.190
  1.240
  1.290
  1.340
  1.380
  1.420
  1.450
  1.480
  1.500
  1.530
  1.550
  1.570
  1.590
  1.610
  1.630
  1.640
  1.660
  1.670
  1.690
  1.700
  1.710
  1.720
  1.730
  1.740
  1.750
  1.760
  1.760
  1.770
  1.780
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.318
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  136
  187
  202
  218
  234
  251
  269
  288
  307
  327
  347
  380
  403
  426
  450
  476
  502
  530
  558
  588
  620
  653
  687
  723
  760
  799
  841
  884
  929
  976
  1,025
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  234
  253
  273
  294
  315
  338
  361
  385
  410
  437
  448
  477
  506
  537
  569
  602
  637
  673
  711
  751
  792
  835
  881
  928
  977
  1,029
  1,083
  1,140
  1,200
  1,262
Funds from operations, $m
  -404
  421
  455
  491
  528
  567
  607
  649
  692
  737
  784
  828
  879
  932
  987
  1,044
  1,104
  1,167
  1,232
  1,300
  1,371
  1,445
  1,522
  1,603
  1,688
  1,777
  1,870
  1,967
  2,069
  2,176
  2,288
Change in working capital, $m
  -741
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  337
  421
  455
  491
  528
  567
  607
  649
  692
  737
  784
  828
  879
  932
  987
  1,044
  1,104
  1,167
  1,232
  1,300
  1,371
  1,445
  1,522
  1,603
  1,688
  1,777
  1,870
  1,967
  2,069
  2,176
  2,288
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -200
  -218
  -237
  -257
  -278
  -300
  -322
  -345
  -370
  -395
  -421
  -448
  -477
  -506
  -537
  -569
  -602
  -637
  -673
  -711
  -751
  -792
  -835
  -881
  -928
  -977
  -1,029
  -1,083
  -1,140
  -1,200
New CAPEX, $m
  -193
  -183
  -192
  -200
  -208
  -216
  -224
  -233
  -242
  -252
  -262
  -272
  -283
  -295
  -307
  -320
  -334
  -348
  -363
  -379
  -396
  -414
  -432
  -452
  -473
  -495
  -518
  -543
  -568
  -595
  -624
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -172
  -383
  -410
  -437
  -465
  -494
  -524
  -555
  -587
  -622
  -657
  -693
  -731
  -772
  -813
  -857
  -903
  -950
  -1,000
  -1,052
  -1,107
  -1,165
  -1,224
  -1,287
  -1,354
  -1,423
  -1,495
  -1,572
  -1,651
  -1,735
  -1,824
Free cash flow, $m
  165
  38
  45
  54
  63
  73
  83
  93
  104
  116
  127
  135
  148
  161
  174
  188
  202
  216
  232
  247
  263
  280
  298
  316
  334
  354
  374
  395
  417
  440
  464
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -29
  182
  190
  198
  206
  214
  222
  231
  240
  250
  260
  270
  281
  292
  305
  317
  331
  345
  360
  376
  393
  410
  429
  449
  469
  491
  514
  538
  564
  590
  619
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -46
  182
  190
  198
  206
  214
  222
  231
  240
  250
  260
  270
  281
  292
  305
  317
  331
  345
  360
  376
  393
  410
  429
  449
  469
  491
  514
  538
  564
  590
  619
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  120
  220
  235
  252
  269
  287
  305
  324
  344
  365
  387
  405
  429
  453
  478
  505
  533
  562
  592
  623
  656
  691
  727
  764
  804
  845
  888
  933
  981
  1,031
  1,083
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  15
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -116
  -121
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -141
  -147
  -153
  -159
  -166
  -173
  -180
  -188
  -196
  -205
  -214
  -224
  -234
  -245
  -256
  -268
  -281
  -294
  -308
  -323
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  201
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  327
  136
  148
  161
  175
  189
  204
  219
  235
  251
  264
  282
  300
  319
  339
  360
  381
  404
  427
  451
  476
  503
  530
  559
  589
  620
  652
  687
  722
  760
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  313
  124
  129
  133
  136
  137
  138
  137
  135
  132
  125
  120
  114
  107
  100
  91
  83
  74
  66
  57
  49
  42
  35
  28
  23
  18
  14
  11
  8
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Embotelladora Andina S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces, markets, and distributes Coca-Cola soft drinks in Chile, Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay. It also offers fruit juices, ready-to-drink tea, other fruit-flavored beverages, and mineral and purified water; and flavored waters and other carbonated beverages. In addition, the company distributes non-carbonated beverages, such as fruit juices, energy and sport drinks, and waters; beer under the Amstel, Bavaria, Birra Moretti, Dos Equis (XX), Edelweiss, Heineken, Kaiser, Murphy’s, Sol, and Xingú brands; and spirits. Further, it manufactures glass and polyethylene terephthalate bottles, cases, and plastic caps. The company offers its products primarily through small retailers, restaurants and bars, supermarkets, and third party distributors. Embotelladora Andina S.A. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Santiago, Chile.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Series A) ADR (AKO-A)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 161.5
Price to Sales 8.2
Price to Book 17.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 65.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 152.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 14.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 88%
Total Debt to Equity 95.7%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Return On Total Capital 5.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Return On Equity 10.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 41.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.9%
EBITDA Margin 5.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Operating Margin 10.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Net Profit Margin 5.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Effective Tax Rate 34.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.7%
Payout Ratio 75%

AKO-A stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AKO-A stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2680 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Series A) ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Series A) ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AKO-A stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AKO-A is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Series A) ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Series A) ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AKO-A stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AKO-A stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Series A) ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Series A) ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AKO-A stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AKO-A are equal to 74.6%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Series A) ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AKO-A is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1237 million for Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Series A) ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 170.791 million for Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Series A) ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Series A) ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.0 billion.

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Stock chart of AKO-A Financial statements of AKO-A
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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