Intrinsic value of Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Series B) ADR - AKO-B

Previous Close

$25.92

  Intrinsic Value

$17.21

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-34%

Previous close

$25.92

 
Intrinsic value

$17.21

 
Up/down potential

-34%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of AKO-B stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -5.33
  7.60
  7.34
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.54
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
Revenue, $m
  2,680
  2,884
  3,095
  3,315
  3,544
  3,782
  4,029
  4,286
  4,553
  4,832
  5,122
  5,425
  5,740
  6,069
  6,413
  6,772
  7,147
  7,538
  7,948
  8,377
  8,825
  9,294
  9,785
  10,299
  10,838
  11,402
  11,994
  12,614
  13,263
  13,945
  14,659
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,594
  2,783
  2,980
  3,185
  3,397
  3,618
  3,848
  4,087
  4,336
  4,596
  4,851
  5,133
  5,427
  5,735
  6,056
  6,391
  6,741
  7,107
  7,490
  7,891
  8,311
  8,750
  9,210
  9,692
  10,196
  10,725
  11,279
  11,860
  12,470
  13,108
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,395
  2,594
  2,783
  2,980
  3,185
  3,397
  3,618
  3,848
  4,087
  4,336
  4,596
  4,851
  5,133
  5,427
  5,735
  6,056
  6,391
  6,741
  7,107
  7,490
  7,891
  8,311
  8,750
  9,210
  9,692
  10,196
  10,725
  11,279
  11,860
  12,470
  13,108
Operating income, $m
  285
  290
  312
  335
  359
  385
  411
  438
  466
  496
  526
  574
  607
  642
  678
  716
  756
  797
  841
  886
  934
  983
  1,035
  1,090
  1,146
  1,206
  1,269
  1,334
  1,403
  1,475
  1,551
EBITDA, $m
  285
  520
  558
  598
  639
  682
  727
  773
  821
  872
  924
  979
  1,035
  1,095
  1,157
  1,222
  1,289
  1,360
  1,434
  1,511
  1,592
  1,676
  1,765
  1,858
  1,955
  2,057
  2,163
  2,275
  2,393
  2,515
  2,644
Interest expense (income), $m
  -75
  38
  43
  49
  55
  60
  67
  73
  80
  87
  94
  101
  109
  117
  126
  135
  144
  154
  164
  174
  186
  197
  209
  222
  235
  249
  264
  279
  295
  312
  330
Earnings before tax, $m
  212
  251
  269
  286
  305
  324
  344
  365
  387
  409
  433
  473
  498
  525
  553
  582
  612
  644
  677
  712
  748
  786
  826
  867
  911
  957
  1,005
  1,055
  1,108
  1,163
  1,221
Tax expense, $m
  73
  68
  73
  77
  82
  88
  93
  99
  104
  110
  117
  128
  134
  142
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
  192
  202
  212
  223
  234
  246
  258
  271
  285
  299
  314
  330
Net income, $m
  136
  184
  196
  209
  223
  237
  251
  266
  282
  299
  316
  345
  364
  383
  403
  425
  447
  470
  494
  519
  546
  574
  603
  633
  665
  699
  734
  770
  809
  849
  891

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  297
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,316
  3,247
  3,486
  3,733
  3,991
  4,259
  4,537
  4,826
  5,128
  5,441
  5,768
  6,109
  6,464
  6,835
  7,222
  7,626
  8,048
  8,489
  8,951
  9,433
  9,938
  10,466
  11,019
  11,598
  12,205
  12,841
  13,507
  14,205
  14,936
  15,703
  16,508
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,019
  3,247
  3,486
  3,733
  3,991
  4,259
  4,537
  4,826
  5,128
  5,441
  5,768
  6,109
  6,464
  6,835
  7,222
  7,626
  8,048
  8,489
  8,951
  9,433
  9,938
  10,466
  11,019
  11,598
  12,205
  12,841
  13,507
  14,205
  14,936
  15,703
  16,508
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
Average production assets, $m
  2,001
  2,151
  2,309
  2,473
  2,644
  2,821
  3,005
  3,197
  3,397
  3,605
  3,821
  4,047
  4,282
  4,528
  4,784
  5,052
  5,331
  5,624
  5,929
  6,249
  6,583
  6,933
  7,300
  7,683
  8,085
  8,506
  8,947
  9,410
  9,895
  10,403
  10,936
Working capital, $m
  200
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  1,184
  1,239
  1,395
  1,558
  1,727
  1,903
  2,086
  2,276
  2,474
  2,680
  2,895
  3,119
  3,352
  3,596
  3,850
  4,115
  4,393
  4,682
  4,986
  5,302
  5,634
  5,981
  6,345
  6,725
  7,124
  7,541
  7,979
  8,437
  8,918
  9,422
  9,951
Total liabilities, $m
  2,078
  2,134
  2,290
  2,453
  2,622
  2,798
  2,981
  3,171
  3,369
  3,575
  3,790
  4,014
  4,247
  4,491
  4,745
  5,010
  5,288
  5,577
  5,881
  6,197
  6,529
  6,876
  7,240
  7,620
  8,019
  8,436
  8,874
  9,332
  9,813
  10,317
  10,846
Total equity, $m
  1,237
  1,114
  1,196
  1,281
  1,369
  1,461
  1,556
  1,655
  1,759
  1,866
  1,979
  2,095
  2,217
  2,344
  2,477
  2,616
  2,761
  2,912
  3,070
  3,236
  3,409
  3,590
  3,780
  3,978
  4,186
  4,404
  4,633
  4,872
  5,123
  5,386
  5,662
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,315
  3,248
  3,486
  3,734
  3,991
  4,259
  4,537
  4,826
  5,128
  5,441
  5,769
  6,109
  6,464
  6,835
  7,222
  7,626
  8,049
  8,489
  8,951
  9,433
  9,938
  10,466
  11,020
  11,598
  12,205
  12,840
  13,507
  14,204
  14,936
  15,703
  16,508
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.957
  1.110
  1.170
  1.220
  1.260
  1.300
  1.340
  1.370
  1.410
  1.440
  1.460
  1.490
  1.510
  1.530
  1.550
  1.570
  1.590
  1.610
  1.620
  1.640
  1.650
  1.670
  1.680
  1.690
  1.700
  1.710
  1.720
  1.730
  1.740
  1.750
  1.760
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.318
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343
  0.343

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  136
  184
  196
  209
  223
  237
  251
  266
  282
  299
  316
  345
  364
  383
  403
  425
  447
  470
  494
  519
  546
  574
  603
  633
  665
  699
  734
  770
  809
  849
  891
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  231
  246
  263
  280
  298
  316
  335
  355
  376
  398
  405
  428
  453
  478
  505
  533
  562
  593
  625
  658
  693
  730
  768
  809
  851
  895
  941
  989
  1,040
  1,094
Funds from operations, $m
  -404
  414
  442
  472
  502
  534
  567
  602
  637
  675
  713
  750
  792
  836
  882
  930
  980
  1,032
  1,087
  1,144
  1,204
  1,267
  1,333
  1,402
  1,474
  1,549
  1,628
  1,711
  1,798
  1,889
  1,985
Change in working capital, $m
  -741
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  337
  414
  442
  472
  502
  534
  567
  602
  637
  675
  713
  750
  792
  836
  882
  930
  980
  1,032
  1,087
  1,144
  1,204
  1,267
  1,333
  1,402
  1,474
  1,549
  1,628
  1,711
  1,798
  1,889
  1,985
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -200
  -215
  -231
  -247
  -264
  -282
  -301
  -320
  -340
  -360
  -382
  -405
  -428
  -453
  -478
  -505
  -533
  -562
  -593
  -625
  -658
  -693
  -730
  -768
  -809
  -851
  -895
  -941
  -989
  -1,040
New CAPEX, $m
  -193
  -151
  -158
  -164
  -171
  -177
  -184
  -192
  -200
  -208
  -217
  -226
  -235
  -246
  -256
  -268
  -280
  -292
  -306
  -320
  -334
  -350
  -366
  -384
  -402
  -421
  -441
  -462
  -485
  -508
  -533
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -172
  -351
  -373
  -395
  -418
  -441
  -466
  -493
  -520
  -548
  -577
  -608
  -640
  -674
  -709
  -746
  -785
  -825
  -868
  -913
  -959
  -1,008
  -1,059
  -1,114
  -1,170
  -1,230
  -1,292
  -1,357
  -1,426
  -1,497
  -1,573
Free cash flow, $m
  165
  63
  69
  77
  85
  93
  101
  109
  118
  127
  136
  142
  152
  162
  173
  184
  195
  207
  219
  232
  245
  259
  273
  288
  303
  320
  336
  354
  372
  392
  412
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -29
  151
  157
  163
  169
  176
  183
  190
  198
  206
  215
  224
  233
  244
  254
  265
  277
  290
  303
  317
  332
  347
  363
  381
  399
  418
  438
  459
  481
  504
  528
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -46
  151
  157
  163
  169
  176
  183
  190
  198
  206
  215
  224
  233
  244
  254
  265
  277
  290
  303
  317
  332
  347
  363
  381
  399
  418
  438
  459
  481
  504
  528
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  120
  214
  226
  240
  254
  268
  284
  299
  316
  333
  351
  366
  385
  406
  427
  449
  472
  497
  522
  549
  577
  606
  636
  668
  702
  737
  774
  813
  853
  896
  940
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  15
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -208
  -218
  -228
  -239
  -251
  -263
  -276
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  201
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  337
  144
  155
  165
  177
  188
  200
  213
  226
  239
  249
  263
  278
  294
  311
  328
  345
  364
  383
  404
  425
  447
  470
  494
  519
  546
  573
  602
  632
  664
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  323
  132
  135
  136
  137
  137
  135
  133
  130
  125
  118
  112
  106
  99
  91
  83
  75
  67
  59
  51
  44
  37
  31
  25
  20
  16
  12
  9
  7
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Andina) is a bottler of Coca-Cola trademark beverages in Latin America. The Company operates in four segments: Chile, Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay. It produces and distributes fruit juices, other fruit-flavored beverages and mineral and purified water in Chile, Argentina and Paraguay under trademarks owned by The Coca-Cola Company. The Company produces, markets and distributes the Coca-Cola trademark beverages and brands licensed from third-parties throughout its franchise territories. It manufactures polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottles primarily for its own use in the packaging of Coca-Cola soft drinks in Chile and Argentina. In Brazil, it produces tea and juices for Leao Alimentos e Industria Ltda. It also distributes non-carbonated beverages in Brazil, such as tea, fruit juices, energy drinks, sport drinks and waters. It distributes beer in Brazil under the brands Amstel, Bavaria, Birra Moretti, Dos Equis (XX), Edelweiss, Heineken and Kaiser.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Series B) ADR (AKO-B)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 180.4
Price to Sales 9.2
Price to Book 19.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 72.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 170.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 14.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 88%
Total Debt to Equity 95.7%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Return On Total Capital 5.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Return On Equity 10.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 41.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.9%
EBITDA Margin 5.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Operating Margin 10.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Net Profit Margin 5.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Effective Tax Rate 34.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.7%
Payout Ratio 75%

AKO-B stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AKO-B stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2680 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Series B) ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Series B) ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AKO-B stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AKO-B is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Series B) ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Series B) ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AKO-B stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AKO-B stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Series B) ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Series B) ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AKO-B stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AKO-B are equal to 74.6%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Series B) ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AKO-B is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1237 million for Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Series B) ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 151.203 million for Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Series B) ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Series B) ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.9 billion.

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Financial statements of AKO-B
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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