Intrinsic value of Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Series B) ADR - AKO-B

Previous Close

$23.60

  Intrinsic Value

$2.78

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-88%

Previous close

$23.60

 
Intrinsic value

$2.78

 
Up/down potential

-88%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of AKO-B stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -5.33
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,680
  2,710
  2,772
  2,844
  2,924
  3,012
  3,110
  3,216
  3,330
  3,454
  3,586
  3,728
  3,879
  4,040
  4,212
  4,393
  4,586
  4,790
  5,005
  5,233
  5,473
  5,727
  5,995
  6,277
  6,574
  6,887
  7,216
  7,563
  7,928
  8,312
  8,716
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,429
  2,482
  2,543
  2,611
  2,686
  2,769
  2,860
  2,957
  3,063
  3,176
  3,180
  3,309
  3,446
  3,592
  3,747
  3,911
  4,085
  4,269
  4,463
  4,668
  4,884
  5,113
  5,353
  5,607
  5,874
  6,155
  6,450
  6,762
  7,089
  7,434
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,395
  2,429
  2,482
  2,543
  2,611
  2,686
  2,769
  2,860
  2,957
  3,063
  3,176
  3,180
  3,309
  3,446
  3,592
  3,747
  3,911
  4,085
  4,269
  4,463
  4,668
  4,884
  5,113
  5,353
  5,607
  5,874
  6,155
  6,450
  6,762
  7,089
  7,434
Operating income, $m
  285
  281
  291
  301
  313
  326
  340
  356
  373
  391
  410
  548
  571
  594
  620
  646
  675
  705
  736
  770
  805
  842
  882
  923
  967
  1,013
  1,062
  1,113
  1,166
  1,223
  1,282
EBITDA, $m
  285
  610
  624
  640
  658
  678
  700
  724
  750
  777
  807
  839
  873
  910
  948
  989
  1,032
  1,078
  1,127
  1,178
  1,232
  1,289
  1,349
  1,413
  1,480
  1,550
  1,624
  1,702
  1,785
  1,871
  1,962
Interest expense (income), $m
  -75
  78
  80
  84
  87
  91
  96
  101
  106
  112
  118
  125
  132
  140
  148
  157
  167
  176
  187
  198
  210
  222
  235
  249
  263
  278
  294
  311
  329
  348
  367
Earnings before tax, $m
  212
  204
  210
  218
  226
  235
  244
  255
  266
  279
  292
  423
  438
  454
  471
  489
  508
  528
  549
  572
  596
  621
  647
  675
  704
  735
  767
  801
  837
  875
  915
Tax expense, $m
  73
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  114
  118
  123
  127
  132
  137
  143
  148
  154
  161
  168
  175
  182
  190
  198
  207
  216
  226
  236
  247
Net income, $m
  136
  149
  154
  159
  165
  171
  178
  186
  195
  203
  213
  309
  320
  332
  344
  357
  371
  386
  401
  417
  435
  453
  472
  493
  514
  536
  560
  585
  611
  639
  668

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  297
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,316
  3,354
  3,431
  3,519
  3,618
  3,728
  3,849
  3,980
  4,121
  4,274
  4,438
  4,614
  4,801
  5,000
  5,212
  5,437
  5,676
  5,928
  6,194
  6,476
  6,774
  7,088
  7,419
  7,768
  8,136
  8,523
  8,931
  9,360
  9,812
  10,287
  10,787
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,019
  3,354
  3,431
  3,519
  3,618
  3,728
  3,849
  3,980
  4,121
  4,274
  4,438
  4,614
  4,801
  5,000
  5,212
  5,437
  5,676
  5,928
  6,194
  6,476
  6,774
  7,088
  7,419
  7,768
  8,136
  8,523
  8,931
  9,360
  9,812
  10,287
  10,787
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.888
  0.808
  0.808
  0.808
  0.808
  0.808
  0.808
  0.808
  0.808
  0.808
  0.808
  0.808
  0.808
  0.808
  0.808
  0.808
  0.808
  0.808
  0.808
  0.808
  0.808
  0.808
  0.808
  0.808
  0.808
  0.808
  0.808
  0.808
  0.808
  0.808
  0.808
Average production assets, $m
  2,001
  2,114
  2,163
  2,218
  2,281
  2,350
  2,425
  2,508
  2,598
  2,694
  2,797
  2,908
  3,026
  3,152
  3,285
  3,427
  3,577
  3,736
  3,904
  4,082
  4,269
  4,467
  4,676
  4,896
  5,127
  5,372
  5,629
  5,899
  6,184
  6,483
  6,798
Working capital, $m
  200
  -230
  -236
  -242
  -249
  -256
  -264
  -273
  -283
  -294
  -305
  -317
  -330
  -343
  -358
  -373
  -390
  -407
  -425
  -445
  -465
  -487
  -510
  -534
  -559
  -585
  -613
  -643
  -674
  -707
  -741
Total debt, $m
  1,184
  1,218
  1,266
  1,321
  1,383
  1,452
  1,528
  1,610
  1,699
  1,795
  1,897
  2,007
  2,125
  2,250
  2,383
  2,524
  2,673
  2,831
  2,998
  3,175
  3,362
  3,559
  3,766
  3,985
  4,216
  4,458
  4,714
  4,983
  5,266
  5,564
  5,878
Total liabilities, $m
  2,078
  2,103
  2,151
  2,207
  2,269
  2,338
  2,413
  2,495
  2,584
  2,680
  2,783
  2,893
  3,010
  3,135
  3,268
  3,409
  3,559
  3,717
  3,884
  4,061
  4,247
  4,444
  4,652
  4,871
  5,101
  5,344
  5,600
  5,869
  6,152
  6,450
  6,763
Total equity, $m
  1,237
  1,251
  1,280
  1,313
  1,350
  1,391
  1,436
  1,484
  1,537
  1,594
  1,656
  1,721
  1,791
  1,865
  1,944
  2,028
  2,117
  2,211
  2,311
  2,416
  2,527
  2,644
  2,767
  2,897
  3,035
  3,179
  3,331
  3,491
  3,660
  3,837
  4,023
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,315
  3,354
  3,431
  3,520
  3,619
  3,729
  3,849
  3,979
  4,121
  4,274
  4,439
  4,614
  4,801
  5,000
  5,212
  5,437
  5,676
  5,928
  6,195
  6,477
  6,774
  7,088
  7,419
  7,768
  8,136
  8,523
  8,931
  9,360
  9,812
  10,287
  10,786
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.957
  0.970
  0.990
  1.010
  1.020
  1.040
  1.060
  1.080
  1.100
  1.130
  1.150
  1.170
  1.190
  1.210
  1.230
  1.240
  1.260
  1.280
  1.300
  1.310
  1.330
  1.350
  1.360
  1.380
  1.390
  1.400
  1.420
  1.430
  1.440
  1.450
  1.460
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.318
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  136
  149
  154
  159
  165
  171
  178
  186
  195
  203
  213
  309
  320
  332
  344
  357
  371
  386
  401
  417
  435
  453
  472
  493
  514
  536
  560
  585
  611
  639
  668
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  329
  333
  339
  345
  352
  360
  368
  377
  387
  397
  291
  303
  315
  329
  343
  358
  374
  390
  408
  427
  447
  468
  490
  513
  537
  563
  590
  618
  648
  680
Funds from operations, $m
  -404
  477
  487
  498
  510
  523
  538
  554
  571
  590
  610
  600
  622
  647
  672
  700
  729
  759
  791
  826
  862
  900
  940
  982
  1,027
  1,074
  1,123
  1,175
  1,230
  1,287
  1,348
Change in working capital, $m
  -741
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
Cash from operations, $m
  337
  482
  492
  504
  517
  531
  546
  563
  581
  601
  621
  612
  635
  660
  687
  715
  745
  776
  810
  845
  882
  921
  963
  1,006
  1,052
  1,100
  1,151
  1,204
  1,261
  1,320
  1,382
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -207
  -211
  -216
  -222
  -228
  -235
  -243
  -251
  -260
  -269
  -280
  -291
  -303
  -315
  -329
  -343
  -358
  -374
  -390
  -408
  -427
  -447
  -468
  -490
  -513
  -537
  -563
  -590
  -618
  -648
New CAPEX, $m
  -193
  -41
  -49
  -56
  -62
  -69
  -76
  -83
  -89
  -96
  -103
  -111
  -118
  -126
  -134
  -142
  -150
  -159
  -168
  -178
  -188
  -198
  -209
  -220
  -232
  -244
  -257
  -271
  -285
  -299
  -315
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -172
  -248
  -260
  -272
  -284
  -297
  -311
  -326
  -340
  -356
  -372
  -391
  -409
  -429
  -449
  -471
  -493
  -517
  -542
  -568
  -596
  -625
  -656
  -688
  -722
  -757
  -794
  -834
  -875
  -917
  -963
Free cash flow, $m
  165
  234
  232
  232
  233
  234
  236
  238
  241
  244
  249
  221
  227
  232
  238
  245
  252
  260
  268
  277
  286
  297
  307
  319
  331
  343
  357
  371
  386
  402
  419
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -29
  42
  48
  55
  62
  69
  75
  82
  89
  96
  103
  110
  117
  125
  133
  141
  149
  158
  167
  177
  187
  197
  208
  219
  231
  243
  256
  269
  283
  298
  313
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -46
  42
  48
  55
  62
  69
  75
  82
  89
  96
  103
  110
  117
  125
  133
  141
  149
  158
  167
  177
  187
  197
  208
  219
  231
  243
  256
  269
  283
  298
  313
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  120
  276
  281
  287
  295
  303
  311
  320
  330
  340
  351
  331
  344
  357
  371
  386
  401
  418
  435
  454
  473
  493
  515
  537
  561
  586
  613
  640
  669
  700
  732
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  15
  -25
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -70
  -74
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -152
  -160
  -168
  -177
  -186
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  251
  252
  254
  258
  262
  266
  271
  277
  283
  290
  266
  274
  283
  292
  302
  313
  324
  336
  349
  362
  376
  391
  407
  424
  442
  460
  480
  501
  523
  546
Discount rate, %
 
  5.20
  5.46
  5.73
  6.02
  6.32
  6.64
  6.97
  7.32
  7.68
  8.07
  8.47
  8.89
  9.34
  9.81
  10.30
  10.81
  11.35
  11.92
  12.51
  13.14
  13.80
  14.49
  15.21
  15.97
  16.77
  17.61
  18.49
  19.41
  20.38
  21.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  238
  226
  215
  204
  193
  181
  169
  157
  146
  134
  109
  99
  89
  79
  69
  60
  52
  44
  37
  31
  25
  20
  16
  12
  9
  7
  5
  3
  2
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Andina) is a bottler of Coca-Cola trademark beverages in Latin America. The Company operates in four segments: Chile, Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay. It produces and distributes fruit juices, other fruit-flavored beverages and mineral and purified water in Chile, Argentina and Paraguay under trademarks owned by The Coca-Cola Company. The Company produces, markets and distributes the Coca-Cola trademark beverages and brands licensed from third-parties throughout its franchise territories. It manufactures polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottles primarily for its own use in the packaging of Coca-Cola soft drinks in Chile and Argentina. In Brazil, it produces tea and juices for Leao Alimentos e Industria Ltda. It also distributes non-carbonated beverages in Brazil, such as tea, fruit juices, energy drinks, sport drinks and waters. It distributes beer in Brazil under the brands Amstel, Bavaria, Birra Moretti, Dos Equis (XX), Edelweiss, Heineken and Kaiser.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Series B) ADR (AKO-B)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 164.3
Price to Sales 8.3
Price to Book 18.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 66.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 155.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 14.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 88%
Total Debt to Equity 95.7%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Return On Total Capital 5.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Return On Equity 10.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 41.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.9%
EBITDA Margin 5.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Operating Margin 10.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Net Profit Margin 5.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Effective Tax Rate 34.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.7%
Payout Ratio 75%

AKO-B stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AKO-B stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2657 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Series B) ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Series B) ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AKO-B stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.2%, whose default value for AKO-B is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Series B) ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Series B) ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AKO-B stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AKO-B stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.6% for Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Series B) ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Series B) ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AKO-B stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AKO-B are equal to 78%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Series B) ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AKO-B is equal to -8.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1226 million for Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Series B) ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 947 million for Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Series B) ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Series B) ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $22.3 billion.

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Financial statements of AKO-B
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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