Intrinsic value of Albemarle - ALB

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$108.91

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$108.91

 
Intrinsic value

$55.53

 
Up/down potential

-49%

 
Rating

sell

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ALB stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 12.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -5.27
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,677
  2,731
  2,793
  2,865
  2,946
  3,035
  3,133
  3,240
  3,355
  3,480
  3,613
  3,756
  3,908
  4,071
  4,243
  4,426
  4,620
  4,826
  5,043
  5,272
  5,514
  5,770
  6,040
  6,324
  6,623
  6,938
  7,270
  7,620
  7,988
  8,374
  8,781
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,394
  2,446
  2,505
  2,571
  2,644
  2,725
  2,812
  2,907
  3,009
  3,119
  3,082
  3,207
  3,340
  3,482
  3,632
  3,791
  3,959
  4,137
  4,326
  4,524
  4,734
  4,955
  5,188
  5,434
  5,693
  5,965
  6,252
  6,554
  6,871
  7,205
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,103
  2,394
  2,446
  2,505
  2,571
  2,644
  2,725
  2,812
  2,907
  3,009
  3,119
  3,082
  3,207
  3,340
  3,482
  3,632
  3,791
  3,959
  4,137
  4,326
  4,524
  4,734
  4,955
  5,188
  5,434
  5,693
  5,965
  6,252
  6,554
  6,871
  7,205
Operating income, $m
  575
  336
  347
  360
  375
  391
  408
  428
  448
  471
  495
  674
  702
  731
  762
  795
  829
  866
  905
  947
  990
  1,036
  1,084
  1,135
  1,189
  1,246
  1,305
  1,368
  1,434
  1,503
  1,576
EBITDA, $m
  801
  639
  654
  670
  689
  710
  733
  758
  785
  814
  845
  879
  915
  953
  993
  1,036
  1,081
  1,129
  1,180
  1,234
  1,290
  1,350
  1,413
  1,480
  1,550
  1,624
  1,701
  1,783
  1,869
  1,960
  2,055
Interest expense (income), $m
  97
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  99
  105
  111
  118
  125
  133
  141
  149
  159
  169
  179
  190
  202
  214
  227
  241
  256
  271
  287
  304
  322
  341
  361
  381
Earnings before tax, $m
  515
  262
  270
  280
  290
  302
  315
  329
  344
  360
  377
  550
  569
  590
  612
  636
  661
  687
  715
  745
  776
  809
  843
  880
  918
  959
  1,001
  1,046
  1,093
  1,143
  1,195
Tax expense, $m
  96
  71
  73
  76
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  148
  154
  159
  165
  172
  178
  186
  193
  201
  209
  218
  228
  238
  248
  259
  270
  282
  295
  309
  323
Net income, $m
  644
  191
  197
  204
  212
  220
  230
  240
  251
  263
  275
  401
  415
  431
  447
  464
  482
  502
  522
  544
  566
  590
  616
  642
  670
  700
  731
  764
  798
  834
  872

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  2,270
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  8,161
  6,014
  6,153
  6,311
  6,488
  6,685
  6,901
  7,136
  7,390
  7,664
  7,959
  8,273
  8,609
  8,967
  9,346
  9,750
  10,177
  10,629
  11,107
  11,613
  12,146
  12,709
  13,303
  13,929
  14,588
  15,283
  16,014
  16,784
  17,594
  18,446
  19,342
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,891
  6,014
  6,153
  6,311
  6,488
  6,685
  6,901
  7,136
  7,390
  7,664
  7,959
  8,273
  8,609
  8,967
  9,346
  9,750
  10,177
  10,629
  11,107
  11,613
  12,146
  12,709
  13,303
  13,929
  14,588
  15,283
  16,014
  16,784
  17,594
  18,446
  19,342
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
Average production assets, $m
  2,711
  2,766
  2,830
  2,902
  2,984
  3,074
  3,174
  3,282
  3,399
  3,525
  3,660
  3,805
  3,959
  4,124
  4,298
  4,484
  4,680
  4,888
  5,108
  5,341
  5,586
  5,845
  6,118
  6,406
  6,709
  7,029
  7,365
  7,719
  8,091
  8,483
  8,895
Working capital, $m
  2,167
  147
  151
  155
  159
  164
  169
  175
  181
  188
  195
  203
  211
  220
  229
  239
  249
  261
  272
  285
  298
  312
  326
  341
  358
  375
  393
  411
  431
  452
  474
Total debt, $m
  2,369
  2,207
  2,304
  2,414
  2,538
  2,676
  2,827
  2,991
  3,169
  3,360
  3,566
  3,786
  4,021
  4,271
  4,536
  4,818
  5,117
  5,433
  5,767
  6,120
  6,493
  6,887
  7,302
  7,739
  8,200
  8,686
  9,197
  9,735
  10,301
  10,897
  11,523
Total liabilities, $m
  4,366
  4,204
  4,301
  4,411
  4,535
  4,673
  4,824
  4,988
  5,166
  5,357
  5,563
  5,783
  6,018
  6,268
  6,533
  6,815
  7,114
  7,430
  7,764
  8,117
  8,490
  8,884
  9,299
  9,736
  10,197
  10,683
  11,194
  11,732
  12,298
  12,894
  13,520
Total equity, $m
  3,795
  1,810
  1,852
  1,900
  1,953
  2,012
  2,077
  2,148
  2,224
  2,307
  2,396
  2,490
  2,591
  2,699
  2,813
  2,935
  3,063
  3,199
  3,343
  3,495
  3,656
  3,826
  4,004
  4,193
  4,391
  4,600
  4,820
  5,052
  5,296
  5,552
  5,822
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  8,161
  6,014
  6,153
  6,311
  6,488
  6,685
  6,901
  7,136
  7,390
  7,664
  7,959
  8,273
  8,609
  8,967
  9,346
  9,750
  10,177
  10,629
  11,107
  11,612
  12,146
  12,710
  13,303
  13,929
  14,588
  15,283
  16,014
  16,784
  17,594
  18,446
  19,342
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.624
  1.220
  1.240
  1.270
  1.300
  1.330
  1.360
  1.390
  1.420
  1.460
  1.490
  1.520
  1.550
  1.580
  1.610
  1.640
  1.670
  1.700
  1.720
  1.750
  1.780
  1.800
  1.820
  1.850
  1.870
  1.890
  1.910
  1.930
  1.950
  1.960
  1.980
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.259
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  644
  191
  197
  204
  212
  220
  230
  240
  251
  263
  275
  401
  415
  431
  447
  464
  482
  502
  522
  544
  566
  590
  616
  642
  670
  700
  731
  764
  798
  834
  872
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  226
  303
  306
  310
  314
  319
  325
  330
  337
  344
  351
  205
  213
  222
  231
  241
  252
  263
  275
  287
  300
  314
  329
  344
  361
  378
  396
  415
  435
  456
  478
Funds from operations, $m
  972
  494
  503
  514
  526
  540
  554
  570
  588
  606
  626
  606
  628
  652
  678
  705
  734
  765
  797
  831
  867
  905
  944
  987
  1,031
  1,078
  1,127
  1,179
  1,233
  1,290
  1,351
Change in working capital, $m
  239
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Cash from operations, $m
  733
  497
  500
  510
  522
  535
  549
  565
  581
  599
  619
  598
  620
  644
  669
  695
  724
  753
  785
  818
  854
  891
  930
  971
  1,015
  1,061
  1,109
  1,160
  1,213
  1,270
  1,329
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -146
  -149
  -152
  -156
  -160
  -165
  -171
  -176
  -183
  -190
  -197
  -205
  -213
  -222
  -231
  -241
  -252
  -263
  -275
  -287
  -300
  -314
  -329
  -344
  -361
  -378
  -396
  -415
  -435
  -456
New CAPEX, $m
  -197
  -56
  -64
  -73
  -82
  -90
  -99
  -108
  -117
  -126
  -135
  -145
  -154
  -164
  -175
  -185
  -196
  -208
  -220
  -232
  -245
  -259
  -273
  -288
  -303
  -319
  -336
  -354
  -372
  -392
  -412
Cash from investing activities, $m
  2,920
  -202
  -213
  -225
  -238
  -250
  -264
  -279
  -293
  -309
  -325
  -342
  -359
  -377
  -397
  -416
  -437
  -460
  -483
  -507
  -532
  -559
  -587
  -617
  -647
  -680
  -714
  -750
  -787
  -827
  -868
Free cash flow, $m
  3,653
  295
  288
  286
  284
  284
  285
  286
  288
  291
  294
  256
  261
  266
  272
  279
  286
  294
  302
  311
  321
  331
  343
  354
  367
  381
  395
  410
  426
  443
  460
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1,416
  86
  97
  111
  124
  137
  151
  164
  178
  192
  206
  220
  235
  250
  266
  282
  299
  316
  334
  353
  373
  394
  415
  437
  461
  485
  511
  538
  566
  596
  626
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -1,443
  86
  97
  111
  124
  137
  151
  164
  178
  192
  206
  220
  235
  250
  266
  282
  299
  316
  334
  353
  373
  394
  415
  437
  461
  485
  511
  538
  566
  596
  626
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  2,191
  381
  384
  396
  408
  422
  435
  450
  466
  482
  500
  476
  496
  516
  538
  561
  585
  610
  637
  665
  694
  725
  758
  792
  828
  866
  906
  948
  992
  1,038
  1,087
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -541
  -37
  -42
  -48
  -53
  -59
  -65
  -71
  -77
  -82
  -89
  -95
  -101
  -108
  -114
  -121
  -129
  -136
  -144
  -152
  -161
  -169
  -179
  -188
  -198
  -209
  -220
  -232
  -244
  -256
  -270
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  2,022
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  2,366
  343
  348
  355
  362
  370
  379
  389
  400
  411
  382
  395
  409
  424
  439
  456
  474
  493
  512
  533
  556
  579
  604
  630
  657
  686
  716
  748
  782
  817
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  2,268
  314
  303
  292
  281
  269
  256
  243
  230
  216
  181
  168
  155
  142
  129
  116
  103
  91
  79
  68
  57
  48
  40
  32
  26
  20
  15
  12
  9
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Albemarle Corporation develops, manufactures, and markets engineered specialty chemicals worldwide. The company offers lithium compounds, including lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium chloride, and lithium specialties and reagents for applications in lithium batteries, high performance greases, thermoplastic elastomers for car tires, rubber soles and plastic bottles, catalysts for chemical reactions, organic synthesis processes, life science, pharmaceutical, and other markets; cesium products for the chemical and pharmaceutical industries; and zirconium, barium, and titanium products for pyrotechnical applications. It also offers performance catalyst solutions, such as polymer catalysts, curatives, organometallics, and electronic materials for polyolefin polymers, packaging, non-packaging, films, injection molding, alpha-olefins, electronic materials, solar cells, polyurethanes, epoxies, and resins markets; and bromine and bromine-based solutions for fire safety, chemical synthesis, mercury control, water purification, beef and poultry processing, and various other industrial applications, as well as for the oil and gas well drilling, and completion fluids applications. In addition, the company offers clean fuels technologies, which is primarily composed of hydroprocessing catalysts; and heavy oil upgrading, which is primarily composed of fluidized catalytic cracking catalysts and additives for application in the refining industry. It serves petroleum refining, consumer electronics, energy storage, construction, automotive, steel and aerospace, lubricants, pharmaceuticals, crop protection, household appliances, heating, ventilation, aluminum finishing, food safety, and custom chemistry services markets. Albemarle Corporation was founded in 1994 and is based in Charlotte, North Carolina.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Albemarle (ALB)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 19
Price to Sales 4.6
Price to Book 3.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 22.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -13.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 9
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 55.9%
Total Debt to Equity 62.4%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Return On Total Capital 9.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Return On Equity 18.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.9%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 36.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.7%
EBITDA Margin 31.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.8%
Operating Margin 21.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 19.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Net Profit Margin 24.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.8%
Effective Tax Rate 18.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Payout Ratio 21%

ALB stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ALB stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2677 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Albemarle. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Albemarle. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ALB stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ALB is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Albemarle, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Albemarle.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ALB stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ALB stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Albemarle.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Albemarle. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ALB stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ALB are equal to 101.3%.

Life of production assets of 18.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Albemarle operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ALB is equal to 5.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3795 million for Albemarle - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 111.321 million for Albemarle is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Albemarle at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $12.1 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Beyond Tesla: 2 Lithium Stocks to Buy Now   [Apr-10-17 04:33PM  Zacks]
▶ The Hot Stock: Albemarle Soars 9.8%   [Feb-28-17 04:12PM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Albemarle raises dividend for 23rd consecutive year   [Feb-23-17 06:55PM  PR Newswire]
Stock chart of ALB Financial statements of ALB
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