Intrinsic value of Alon USA Partners - ALDW

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$10.26

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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$10.26

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ALDW stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -16.18
  16.20
  15.08
  14.07
  13.16
  12.35
  11.61
  10.95
  10.36
  9.82
  9.34
  8.91
  8.51
  8.16
  7.85
  7.56
  7.31
  7.08
  6.87
  6.68
  6.51
  6.36
  6.23
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.59
  5.53
Revenue, $m
  1,808
  2,101
  2,418
  2,758
  3,121
  3,506
  3,914
  4,342
  4,792
  5,263
  5,754
  6,266
  6,800
  7,355
  7,932
  8,532
  9,156
  9,803
  10,477
  11,177
  11,904
  12,662
  13,450
  14,271
  15,126
  16,018
  16,947
  17,917
  18,930
  19,987
  21,092
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,078
  1,240
  1,415
  1,601
  1,799
  2,008
  2,228
  2,458
  2,700
  2,952
  3,215
  3,488
  3,773
  4,069
  4,377
  4,697
  5,029
  5,374
  5,734
  6,107
  6,495
  6,900
  7,321
  7,760
  8,217
  8,694
  9,192
  9,711
  10,253
  10,820
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  891
  913
  936
  959
  983
  1,008
  1,033
  1,059
  1,085
  1,112
  1,140
  1,169
  1,198
  1,228
  1,259
  1,290
  1,322
  1,355
  1,389
  1,424
  1,460
  1,496
  1,533
  1,572
  1,611
  1,651
  1,693
  1,735
  1,778
  1,823
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,775
  1,969
  2,153
  2,351
  2,560
  2,782
  3,016
  3,261
  3,517
  3,785
  4,064
  4,355
  4,657
  4,971
  5,297
  5,636
  5,987
  6,351
  6,729
  7,123
  7,531
  7,955
  8,396
  8,854
  9,332
  9,828
  10,345
  10,885
  11,446
  12,031
  12,643
Operating income, $m
  33
  132
  264
  407
  561
  724
  898
  1,082
  1,275
  1,478
  1,690
  1,912
  2,143
  2,384
  2,635
  2,897
  3,169
  3,452
  3,747
  4,054
  4,374
  4,707
  5,054
  5,416
  5,795
  6,189
  6,602
  7,033
  7,484
  7,955
  8,449
EBITDA, $m
  91
  196
  338
  491
  656
  831
  1,018
  1,214
  1,421
  1,638
  1,865
  2,103
  2,350
  2,608
  2,877
  3,157
  3,448
  3,751
  4,066
  4,395
  4,737
  5,093
  5,464
  5,852
  6,256
  6,678
  7,119
  7,580
  8,061
  8,565
  9,092
Interest expense (income), $m
  35
  42
  46
  61
  76
  92
  109
  128
  147
  167
  188
  210
  233
  257
  282
  308
  334
  362
  391
  421
  453
  485
  519
  555
  591
  630
  670
  711
  755
  800
  847
Earnings before tax, $m
  -4
  90
  218
  347
  485
  632
  789
  954
  1,128
  1,311
  1,502
  1,702
  1,910
  2,127
  2,353
  2,589
  2,834
  3,090
  3,355
  3,632
  3,921
  4,221
  4,535
  4,862
  5,203
  5,560
  5,932
  6,322
  6,729
  7,156
  7,602
Tax expense, $m
  0
  24
  59
  94
  131
  171
  213
  258
  305
  354
  405
  459
  516
  574
  635
  699
  765
  834
  906
  981
  1,059
  1,140
  1,224
  1,313
  1,405
  1,501
  1,602
  1,707
  1,817
  1,932
  2,052
Net income, $m
  -4
  66
  159
  253
  354
  462
  576
  696
  824
  957
  1,096
  1,242
  1,394
  1,553
  1,718
  1,890
  2,069
  2,255
  2,449
  2,652
  2,862
  3,082
  3,310
  3,549
  3,798
  4,059
  4,331
  4,615
  4,912
  5,224
  5,549

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  74
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  696
  716
  824
  940
  1,063
  1,195
  1,333
  1,479
  1,633
  1,793
  1,961
  2,135
  2,317
  2,506
  2,703
  2,907
  3,119
  3,340
  3,570
  3,808
  4,056
  4,314
  4,583
  4,862
  5,154
  5,457
  5,774
  6,105
  6,450
  6,810
  7,186
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  622
  716
  824
  940
  1,063
  1,195
  1,333
  1,479
  1,633
  1,793
  1,961
  2,135
  2,317
  2,506
  2,703
  2,907
  3,119
  3,340
  3,570
  3,808
  4,056
  4,314
  4,583
  4,862
  5,154
  5,457
  5,774
  6,105
  6,450
  6,810
  7,186
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.907
  2.934
  2.934
  2.934
  2.936
  2.934
  2.936
  2.936
  2.934
  2.935
  2.934
  2.935
  2.935
  2.935
  2.935
  2.935
  2.936
  2.935
  2.935
  2.935
  2.935
  2.935
  2.935
  2.935
  2.935
  2.935
  2.935
  2.935
  2.935
  2.935
  2.935
Average production assets, $m
  428
  513
  590
  673
  762
  856
  955
  1,060
  1,169
  1,284
  1,404
  1,529
  1,659
  1,795
  1,935
  2,082
  2,234
  2,392
  2,556
  2,727
  2,905
  3,089
  3,282
  3,482
  3,691
  3,908
  4,135
  4,372
  4,619
  4,877
  5,146
Working capital, $m
  -73
  -214
  -247
  -281
  -318
  -358
  -399
  -443
  -489
  -537
  -587
  -639
  -694
  -750
  -809
  -870
  -934
  -1,000
  -1,069
  -1,140
  -1,214
  -1,292
  -1,372
  -1,456
  -1,543
  -1,634
  -1,729
  -1,828
  -1,931
  -2,039
  -2,151
Total debt, $m
  236
  318
  415
  520
  631
  749
  874
  1,006
  1,143
  1,288
  1,438
  1,596
  1,759
  1,929
  2,106
  2,290
  2,481
  2,680
  2,887
  3,101
  3,324
  3,557
  3,798
  4,050
  4,312
  4,586
  4,871
  5,168
  5,479
  5,803
  6,142
Total liabilities, $m
  592
  644
  741
  846
  957
  1,075
  1,200
  1,332
  1,469
  1,614
  1,764
  1,922
  2,085
  2,255
  2,432
  2,616
  2,807
  3,006
  3,213
  3,427
  3,650
  3,883
  4,124
  4,376
  4,638
  4,912
  5,197
  5,494
  5,805
  6,129
  6,468
Total equity, $m
  104
  72
  82
  94
  106
  119
  133
  148
  163
  179
  196
  214
  232
  251
  270
  291
  312
  334
  357
  381
  406
  431
  458
  486
  515
  546
  577
  610
  645
  681
  719
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  696
  716
  823
  940
  1,063
  1,194
  1,333
  1,480
  1,632
  1,793
  1,960
  2,136
  2,317
  2,506
  2,702
  2,907
  3,119
  3,340
  3,570
  3,808
  4,056
  4,314
  4,582
  4,862
  5,153
  5,458
  5,774
  6,104
  6,450
  6,810
  7,187
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.269
  4.450
  5.040
  5.530
  5.930
  6.270
  6.560
  6.800
  7.000
  7.180
  7.340
  7.470
  7.590
  7.700
  7.790
  7.880
  7.950
  8.020
  8.090
  8.140
  8.200
  8.240
  8.290
  8.330
  8.370
  8.400
  8.440
  8.470
  8.490
  8.520
  8.550
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.048
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -4
  66
  159
  253
  354
  462
  576
  696
  824
  957
  1,096
  1,242
  1,394
  1,553
  1,718
  1,890
  2,069
  2,255
  2,449
  2,652
  2,862
  3,082
  3,310
  3,549
  3,798
  4,059
  4,331
  4,615
  4,912
  5,224
  5,549
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  58
  64
  74
  84
  95
  107
  119
  132
  146
  161
  175
  191
  207
  224
  242
  260
  279
  299
  320
  341
  363
  386
  410
  435
  461
  489
  517
  546
  577
  610
  643
Funds from operations, $m
  101
  130
  233
  337
  449
  569
  695
  829
  970
  1,117
  1,272
  1,433
  1,602
  1,777
  1,960
  2,150
  2,348
  2,554
  2,769
  2,992
  3,225
  3,468
  3,721
  3,984
  4,260
  4,547
  4,848
  5,161
  5,490
  5,833
  6,193
Change in working capital, $m
  23
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
Cash from operations, $m
  78
  154
  265
  372
  486
  608
  737
  873
  1,016
  1,165
  1,322
  1,486
  1,656
  1,834
  2,019
  2,211
  2,412
  2,621
  2,838
  3,064
  3,299
  3,545
  3,801
  4,068
  4,347
  4,638
  4,942
  5,260
  5,593
  5,941
  6,305
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -55
  -64
  -74
  -84
  -95
  -107
  -119
  -132
  -146
  -161
  -175
  -191
  -207
  -224
  -242
  -260
  -279
  -299
  -320
  -341
  -363
  -386
  -410
  -435
  -461
  -489
  -517
  -546
  -577
  -610
New CAPEX, $m
  -33
  -72
  -77
  -83
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -164
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -192
  -200
  -209
  -218
  -227
  -237
  -247
  -258
  -270
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -33
  -127
  -141
  -157
  -173
  -189
  -206
  -224
  -242
  -261
  -281
  -300
  -321
  -342
  -365
  -388
  -412
  -437
  -463
  -491
  -519
  -548
  -578
  -610
  -644
  -679
  -716
  -754
  -793
  -835
  -880
Free cash flow, $m
  45
  27
  124
  215
  313
  419
  530
  649
  773
  904
  1,042
  1,185
  1,335
  1,491
  1,654
  1,823
  2,000
  2,183
  2,374
  2,574
  2,781
  2,997
  3,223
  3,458
  3,703
  3,959
  4,227
  4,507
  4,799
  5,106
  5,426
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -58
  29
  97
  104
  111
  118
  125
  131
  138
  144
  151
  157
  164
  170
  177
  184
  191
  199
  206
  215
  223
  232
  242
  252
  262
  273
  285
  297
  310
  324
  339
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -81
  29
  97
  104
  111
  118
  125
  131
  138
  144
  151
  157
  164
  170
  177
  184
  191
  199
  206
  215
  223
  232
  242
  252
  262
  273
  285
  297
  310
  324
  339
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -36
  56
  221
  319
  425
  537
  655
  780
  911
  1,049
  1,192
  1,342
  1,498
  1,661
  1,831
  2,007
  2,191
  2,382
  2,581
  2,788
  3,004
  3,229
  3,464
  3,709
  3,965
  4,233
  4,512
  4,804
  5,110
  5,430
  5,765
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  27
  -71
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  130
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  116
  210
  308
  412
  524
  641
  766
  896
  1,033
  1,175
  1,325
  1,480
  1,642
  1,811
  1,987
  2,169
  2,360
  2,558
  2,764
  2,979
  3,204
  3,437
  3,681
  3,936
  4,202
  4,480
  4,771
  5,075
  5,394
  5,727
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  111
  192
  268
  340
  406
  465
  517
  560
  593
  616
  629
  632
  624
  608
  583
  551
  513
  471
  426
  379
  331
  285
  241
  200
  163
  131
  102
  79
  59
  43
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Alon USA Partners, LP refines and markets petroleum products in the United States. The company owns and operates a crude oil refinery in Big Spring, Texas with crude oil throughput capacity of 73,000 barrels per day. It refines oil into petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, petrochemicals, petrochemical feed stocks, asphalts, and other petroleum products. The company sells its products through its wholesale distribution network to retail convenience stores and other third-party distributors primarily in Central and West Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Arizona. Alon USA Partners GP, LLC serves as a general partner of the company. The company was founded in 2012 and is based in Dallas, Texas. Alon USA Partners, LP is a subsidiary of Alon USA Energy, Inc.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Alon USA Partners (ALDW)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -160.4
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 6.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 14.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -16.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 10%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 25
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 224%
Total Debt to Equity 226.9%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 19%
Return On Total Capital -1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.7%
Return On Equity -3.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 65.5%
Asset Turnover 2.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 11.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
EBITDA Margin 4.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Operating Margin 1.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Pre-Tax Margin -0.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Net Profit Margin -0.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Payout Ratio -575%

ALDW stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ALDW stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1808 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Alon USA Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Alon USA Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ALDW stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 16.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ALDW is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Alon USA Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Alon USA Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ALDW stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 51.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $869 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ALDW stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 14.6% for Alon USA Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Alon USA Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ALDW stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ALDW are equal to 24.4%.

Life of production assets of 8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Alon USA Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ALDW is equal to -10.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $131 million for Alon USA Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 62.195 million for Alon USA Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Alon USA Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.


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Stock chart of ALDW Financial statements of ALDW Annual reports of ALDW
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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