Intrinsic value of Alon USA Partners - ALDW

Previous Close

$10.25

  Intrinsic Value

$929.38

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

  Value-price divergence*

+805%

Previous close

$10.25

 
Intrinsic value

$929.38

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+805%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ALDW stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -16.18
  48.10
  43.79
  39.91
  36.42
  33.28
  30.45
  27.91
  25.61
  23.55
  21.70
  20.03
  18.53
  17.17
  15.96
  14.86
  13.87
  12.99
  12.19
  11.47
  10.82
  10.24
  9.72
  9.24
  8.82
  8.44
  8.09
  7.78
  7.51
  7.26
  7.03
Revenue, $m
  1,808
  2,678
  3,850
  5,387
  7,349
  9,794
  12,777
  16,342
  20,528
  25,363
  30,866
  37,048
  43,911
  51,452
  59,661
  68,527
  78,034
  88,168
  98,913
  110,258
  122,190
  134,702
  147,790
  161,452
  175,692
  190,517
  205,938
  221,969
  238,631
  255,945
  273,938
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,374
  1,975
  2,763
  3,770
  5,024
  6,554
  8,383
  10,531
  13,011
  15,834
  19,005
  22,526
  26,395
  30,606
  35,154
  40,031
  45,230
  50,743
  56,562
  62,684
  69,102
  75,816
  82,825
  90,130
  97,735
  105,646
  113,870
  122,418
  131,300
  140,530
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  891
  913
  936
  959
  983
  1,008
  1,033
  1,059
  1,085
  1,112
  1,140
  1,169
  1,198
  1,228
  1,259
  1,290
  1,322
  1,355
  1,389
  1,424
  1,460
  1,496
  1,533
  1,572
  1,611
  1,651
  1,693
  1,735
  1,778
  1,823
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,775
  2,265
  2,888
  3,699
  4,729
  6,007
  7,562
  9,416
  11,590
  14,096
  16,946
  20,145
  23,695
  27,593
  31,834
  36,413
  41,321
  46,552
  52,098
  57,951
  64,108
  70,562
  77,312
  84,358
  91,702
  99,346
  107,297
  115,563
  124,153
  133,078
  142,353
Operating income, $m
  33
  413
  962
  1,688
  2,620
  3,787
  5,214
  6,926
  8,938
  11,266
  13,919
  16,902
  20,216
  23,859
  27,827
  32,114
  36,712
  41,615
  46,816
  52,306
  58,083
  64,141
  70,478
  77,094
  83,990
  91,171
  98,640
  106,407
  114,478
  122,867
  131,585
EBITDA, $m
  91
  477
  1,053
  1,815
  2,794
  4,019
  5,517
  7,313
  9,425
  11,867
  14,651
  17,780
  21,257
  25,078
  29,241
  33,738
  38,562
  43,705
  49,160
  54,919
  60,979
  67,333
  73,980
  80,920
  88,154
  95,686
  103,521
  111,667
  120,134
  128,933
  138,078
Interest expense (income), $m
  35
  31
  68
  119
  185
  269
  375
  503
  657
  837
  1,046
  1,283
  1,550
  1,845
  2,170
  2,524
  2,906
  3,316
  3,753
  4,216
  4,705
  5,220
  5,759
  6,323
  6,912
  7,526
  8,165
  8,829
  9,520
  10,239
  10,985
Earnings before tax, $m
  -4
  382
  894
  1,569
  2,435
  3,517
  4,840
  6,422
  8,281
  10,429
  12,873
  15,619
  18,666
  22,014
  25,657
  29,590
  33,806
  38,299
  43,062
  48,090
  53,377
  58,921
  64,719
  70,771
  77,078
  83,645
  90,476
  97,577
  104,958
  112,628
  120,600
Tax expense, $m
  0
  103
  241
  424
  657
  950
  1,307
  1,734
  2,236
  2,816
  3,476
  4,217
  5,040
  5,944
  6,927
  7,989
  9,128
  10,341
  11,627
  12,984
  14,412
  15,909
  17,474
  19,108
  20,811
  22,584
  24,428
  26,346
  28,339
  30,410
  32,562
Net income, $m
  -4
  279
  653
  1,145
  1,777
  2,568
  3,533
  4,688
  6,045
  7,613
  9,398
  11,402
  13,626
  16,070
  18,729
  21,600
  24,678
  27,958
  31,436
  35,106
  38,966
  43,012
  47,245
  51,663
  56,267
  61,061
  66,047
  71,231
  76,619
  82,219
  88,038

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  74
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  696
  964
  1,386
  1,940
  2,646
  3,527
  4,601
  5,885
  7,392
  9,133
  11,115
  13,341
  15,812
  18,528
  21,484
  24,676
  28,100
  31,749
  35,619
  39,704
  44,001
  48,506
  53,219
  58,139
  63,267
  68,605
  74,158
  79,931
  85,931
  92,166
  98,645
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  622
  964
  1,386
  1,940
  2,646
  3,527
  4,601
  5,885
  7,392
  9,133
  11,115
  13,341
  15,812
  18,528
  21,484
  24,676
  28,100
  31,749
  35,619
  39,704
  44,001
  48,506
  53,219
  58,139
  63,267
  68,605
  74,158
  79,931
  85,931
  92,166
  98,645
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.907
  2.778
  2.778
  2.777
  2.777
  2.777
  2.777
  2.777
  2.777
  2.777
  2.777
  2.777
  2.777
  2.777
  2.777
  2.777
  2.777
  2.777
  2.777
  2.777
  2.777
  2.777
  2.777
  2.777
  2.777
  2.777
  2.777
  2.777
  2.777
  2.777
  2.777
Average production assets, $m
  428
  635
  912
  1,277
  1,742
  2,321
  3,028
  3,873
  4,865
  6,011
  7,315
  8,780
  10,407
  12,194
  14,140
  16,241
  18,494
  20,896
  23,442
  26,131
  28,959
  31,924
  35,026
  38,264
  41,639
  45,153
  48,807
  52,607
  56,556
  60,659
  64,923
Working capital, $m
  -73
  -214
  -308
  -431
  -588
  -784
  -1,022
  -1,307
  -1,642
  -2,029
  -2,469
  -2,964
  -3,513
  -4,116
  -4,773
  -5,482
  -6,243
  -7,053
  -7,913
  -8,821
  -9,775
  -10,776
  -11,823
  -12,916
  -14,055
  -15,241
  -16,475
  -17,758
  -19,090
  -20,476
  -21,915
Total debt, $m
  236
  512
  892
  1,390
  2,026
  2,818
  3,785
  4,940
  6,297
  7,864
  9,647
  11,651
  13,875
  16,319
  18,980
  21,853
  24,934
  28,218
  31,701
  35,378
  39,245
  43,300
  47,541
  51,969
  56,584
  61,389
  66,387
  71,582
  76,982
  82,593
  88,425
Total liabilities, $m
  592
  868
  1,248
  1,746
  2,382
  3,174
  4,141
  5,296
  6,653
  8,220
  10,003
  12,007
  14,231
  16,675
  19,336
  22,209
  25,290
  28,574
  32,057
  35,734
  39,601
  43,656
  47,897
  52,325
  56,940
  61,745
  66,743
  71,938
  77,338
  82,949
  88,781
Total equity, $m
  104
  96
  139
  194
  265
  353
  460
  588
  739
  913
  1,111
  1,334
  1,581
  1,853
  2,148
  2,468
  2,810
  3,175
  3,562
  3,970
  4,400
  4,851
  5,322
  5,814
  6,327
  6,861
  7,416
  7,993
  8,593
  9,217
  9,865
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  696
  964
  1,387
  1,940
  2,647
  3,527
  4,601
  5,884
  7,392
  9,133
  11,114
  13,341
  15,812
  18,528
  21,484
  24,677
  28,100
  31,749
  35,619
  39,704
  44,001
  48,507
  53,219
  58,139
  63,267
  68,606
  74,159
  79,931
  85,931
  92,166
  98,646
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.269
  5.310
  6.430
  7.160
  7.650
  7.990
  8.230
  8.400
  8.520
  8.610
  8.680
  8.730
  8.770
  8.810
  8.830
  8.860
  8.870
  8.890
  8.900
  8.910
  8.920
  8.930
  8.930
  8.940
  8.940
  8.950
  8.950
  8.960
  8.960
  8.960
  8.960
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.048
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -4
  279
  653
  1,145
  1,777
  2,568
  3,533
  4,688
  6,045
  7,613
  9,398
  11,402
  13,626
  16,070
  18,729
  21,600
  24,678
  27,958
  31,436
  35,106
  38,966
  43,012
  47,245
  51,663
  56,267
  61,061
  66,047
  71,231
  76,619
  82,219
  88,038
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  58
  63
  91
  128
  174
  232
  303
  387
  487
  601
  732
  878
  1,041
  1,219
  1,414
  1,624
  1,849
  2,090
  2,344
  2,613
  2,896
  3,192
  3,503
  3,826
  4,164
  4,515
  4,881
  5,261
  5,656
  6,066
  6,492
Funds from operations, $m
  101
  343
  744
  1,273
  1,952
  2,800
  3,836
  5,075
  6,532
  8,214
  10,129
  12,280
  14,667
  17,289
  20,143
  23,224
  26,528
  30,048
  33,780
  37,719
  41,861
  46,205
  50,747
  55,489
  60,431
  65,576
  70,928
  76,492
  82,275
  88,285
  94,531
Change in working capital, $m
  23
  -70
  -94
  -123
  -157
  -196
  -239
  -285
  -335
  -387
  -440
  -495
  -549
  -603
  -657
  -709
  -761
  -811
  -860
  -908
  -955
  -1,001
  -1,047
  -1,093
  -1,139
  -1,186
  -1,234
  -1,283
  -1,333
  -1,385
  -1,439
Cash from operations, $m
  78
  412
  838
  1,396
  2,108
  2,995
  4,074
  5,361
  6,867
  8,601
  10,569
  12,774
  15,216
  17,893
  20,800
  23,934
  27,288
  30,859
  34,640
  38,626
  42,816
  47,206
  51,794
  56,582
  61,570
  66,762
  72,162
  77,774
  83,608
  89,670
  95,970
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -43
  -63
  -91
  -128
  -174
  -232
  -303
  -387
  -487
  -601
  -732
  -878
  -1,041
  -1,219
  -1,414
  -1,624
  -1,849
  -2,090
  -2,344
  -2,613
  -2,896
  -3,192
  -3,503
  -3,826
  -4,164
  -4,515
  -4,881
  -5,261
  -5,656
  -6,066
New CAPEX, $m
  -33
  -207
  -278
  -364
  -465
  -580
  -707
  -845
  -992
  -1,146
  -1,304
  -1,465
  -1,627
  -1,787
  -1,946
  -2,101
  -2,253
  -2,402
  -2,547
  -2,689
  -2,828
  -2,965
  -3,102
  -3,238
  -3,375
  -3,513
  -3,655
  -3,800
  -3,949
  -4,103
  -4,264
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -33
  -250
  -341
  -455
  -593
  -754
  -939
  -1,148
  -1,379
  -1,633
  -1,905
  -2,197
  -2,505
  -2,828
  -3,165
  -3,515
  -3,877
  -4,251
  -4,637
  -5,033
  -5,441
  -5,861
  -6,294
  -6,741
  -7,201
  -7,677
  -8,170
  -8,681
  -9,210
  -9,759
  -10,330
Free cash flow, $m
  45
  163
  496
  941
  1,516
  2,242
  3,135
  4,213
  5,487
  6,969
  8,664
  10,578
  12,712
  15,065
  17,635
  20,419
  23,411
  26,608
  30,003
  33,594
  37,375
  41,344
  45,500
  49,842
  54,369
  59,085
  63,992
  69,094
  74,398
  79,911
  85,640
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -58
  279
  380
  498
  636
  793
  967
  1,155
  1,357
  1,567
  1,784
  2,003
  2,224
  2,444
  2,661
  2,873
  3,081
  3,284
  3,483
  3,677
  3,867
  4,055
  4,242
  4,428
  4,615
  4,805
  4,998
  5,196
  5,400
  5,611
  5,831
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -81
  279
  380
  498
  636
  793
  967
  1,155
  1,357
  1,567
  1,784
  2,003
  2,224
  2,444
  2,661
  2,873
  3,081
  3,284
  3,483
  3,677
  3,867
  4,055
  4,242
  4,428
  4,615
  4,805
  4,998
  5,196
  5,400
  5,611
  5,831
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -36
  442
  876
  1,439
  2,152
  3,034
  4,102
  5,368
  6,844
  8,536
  10,448
  12,581
  14,936
  17,509
  20,296
  23,292
  26,492
  29,892
  33,486
  37,270
  41,242
  45,400
  49,742
  54,269
  58,984
  63,889
  68,989
  74,290
  79,798
  85,522
  91,471
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  27
  -34
  -42
  -55
  -71
  -88
  -107
  -128
  -151
  -174
  -198
  -223
  -247
  -272
  -296
  -319
  -342
  -365
  -387
  -409
  -430
  -451
  -471
  -492
  -513
  -534
  -555
  -577
  -600
  -623
  -648
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  42
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  449
  834
  1,383
  2,081
  2,946
  3,995
  5,240
  6,693
  8,361
  10,249
  12,359
  14,689
  17,237
  20,000
  22,973
  26,150
  29,527
  33,099
  36,862
  40,812
  44,949
  49,270
  53,777
  58,471
  63,355
  68,434
  73,713
  79,198
  84,899
  90,823
Discount rate, %
 
  6.80
  7.14
  7.50
  7.87
  8.27
  8.68
  9.11
  9.57
  10.05
  10.55
  11.08
  11.63
  12.21
  12.82
  13.46
  14.14
  14.84
  15.59
  16.37
  17.18
  18.04
  18.94
  19.89
  20.89
  21.93
  23.03
  24.18
  25.39
  26.66
  27.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  420
  727
  1,114
  1,537
  1,981
  2,424
  2,846
  3,222
  3,533
  3,760
  3,892
  3,923
  3,854
  3,694
  3,454
  3,153
  2,808
  2,441
  2,070
  1,712
  1,380
  1,084
  829
  616
  446
  313
  213
  140
  90
  55
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Alon USA Partners, LP refines and markets petroleum products in the United States. The company owns and operates a crude oil refinery in Big Spring, Texas with crude oil throughput capacity of 73,000 barrels per day. It refines oil into petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, petrochemicals, petrochemical feed stocks, asphalts, and other petroleum products. The company sells its products through its wholesale distribution network to retail convenience stores and other third-party distributors primarily in Central and West Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Arizona. Alon USA Partners GP, LLC serves as a general partner of the company. The company was founded in 2012 and is based in Dallas, Texas. Alon USA Partners, LP is a subsidiary of Alon USA Energy, Inc.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Alon USA Partners (ALDW)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -160.2
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 6.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 14.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -16.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 10%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 25
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 224%
Total Debt to Equity 226.9%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 19%
Return On Total Capital -1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.7%
Return On Equity -3.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 65.5%
Asset Turnover 2.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 11.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
EBITDA Margin 4.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Operating Margin 1.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Pre-Tax Margin -0.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Net Profit Margin -0.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Payout Ratio -575%

ALDW stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ALDW stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1808 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Alon USA Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Alon USA Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ALDW stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 48.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.8%, whose default value for ALDW is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Alon USA Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Alon USA Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ALDW stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 51.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $869 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ALDW stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 13.3% for Alon USA Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Alon USA Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ALDW stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ALDW are equal to 23.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Alon USA Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ALDW is equal to -8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $104 million for Alon USA Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 62.195 million for Alon USA Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Alon USA Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
ALJ Alon USA Energ 13.32 978.00  str.buy
VLO Valero Energy 64.55 2,056.36  str.buy
HFC HollyFrontier 27.42 4,244.87  str.buy
PSX Phillips 66 80.89 889.09  str.buy
WNR Western Refini 36.18 2,159.05  str.buy
TSO Tesoro 99.53 2,071.29  str.buy
PBF PBF Energy 20.09 604.75  str.buy
DK Delek US Holdi 20.88 2,036.85  str.buy
CLMT Calumet Specia 6.15 38.06  str.buy
MPC Marathon Petro 49.70 684.21  str.buy

COMPANY NEWS

▶ HCLP Was among the Top MLP Gainers Last Week   [Aug-08-17 12:28PM  Market Realist]
▶ What Lies ahead for Refining MLPs after Their 2Q17 Results?   [Jul-31-17 10:42AM  Market Realist]
▶ Alon USA Partners posts 2Q profit   [12:44AM  Associated Press]
▶ Analysts Seem Uncertain about Refining MLPs Future   [Jul-25-17 10:37AM  Market Realist]
▶ Short Interest In ALDW, CVRR, and CLMT Falls   [09:07AM  Market Realist]
▶ Why CLMT and ALDW Have Risen despite Sector Weakness   [Jul-24-17 10:38AM  Market Realist]
▶ Could CVR Refining Pay Distributions in 2Q17?   [07:40AM  Market Realist]
▶ ALDW, CVRR, CLMT: Could Refining Margins Improve In 2Q17?   [Jul-21-17 04:36PM  Market Realist]
▶ ALDW, DKL, HCLP: Last Weeks Key MLP Rating Updates   [Jul-10-17 03:13PM  Market Realist]
▶ Alon USA Energy Stockholders Approve Merger Transaction   [Jun-28-17 06:21PM  PR Newswire]
▶ A Look at the Top-Performing MLPs in May 2017   [Jun-07-17 09:07AM  Market Realist]
▶ Top Movers in Energy for May 812, 2017   [May-16-17 07:39AM  Market Realist]
▶ Alon USA Energy beats 1Q profit forecasts   [07:44AM  Associated Press]
▶ Alon USA Partners posts 1Q profit   [07:42AM  Associated Press]
▶ How CVR Refinings Refining Margin Improved in 1Q17   [Apr-28-17 01:06PM  Market Realist]
▶ Short Interest Impacts Integrated Energy and Refiner Stocks   [Mar-31-17 10:53AM  Market Realist]
Stock chart of ALDW Financial statements of ALDW
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

FREE DOWNLOAD
Follow us on:   twitter   twitter   twitter   twitter

VALUATION THEORY       ASSET ALLOCATION

About X-FIN       Site news       Privacy policy       Terms of use       FAQ

Copyright © X-FIN.com 2005-2017. All rigths reserved.