Intrinsic value of Allete - ALE

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$69.91

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$69.91

 
Intrinsic value

$26.19

 
Up/down potential

-63%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ALE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -9.83
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,340
  1,367
  1,398
  1,434
  1,475
  1,519
  1,568
  1,622
  1,679
  1,742
  1,809
  1,880
  1,956
  2,038
  2,124
  2,216
  2,313
  2,416
  2,524
  2,639
  2,760
  2,888
  3,023
  3,165
  3,315
  3,473
  3,639
  3,814
  3,998
  4,192
  4,396
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,174
  1,200
  1,230
  1,264
  1,302
  1,344
  1,389
  1,437
  1,490
  1,546
  1,585
  1,649
  1,718
  1,791
  1,868
  1,950
  2,037
  2,128
  2,225
  2,327
  2,435
  2,549
  2,669
  2,795
  2,928
  3,068
  3,216
  3,371
  3,534
  3,706
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,116
  1,174
  1,200
  1,230
  1,264
  1,302
  1,344
  1,389
  1,437
  1,490
  1,546
  1,585
  1,649
  1,718
  1,791
  1,868
  1,950
  2,037
  2,128
  2,225
  2,327
  2,435
  2,549
  2,669
  2,795
  2,928
  3,068
  3,216
  3,371
  3,534
  3,706
Operating income, $m
  224
  193
  198
  204
  210
  217
  225
  233
  242
  252
  262
  295
  307
  320
  333
  348
  363
  379
  396
  414
  433
  453
  474
  497
  520
  545
  571
  598
  627
  658
  690
EBITDA, $m
  425
  234
  239
  245
  252
  260
  268
  277
  287
  298
  309
  321
  334
  348
  363
  379
  395
  413
  431
  451
  472
  494
  517
  541
  567
  594
  622
  652
  683
  716
  751
Interest expense (income), $m
  68
  66
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  104
  111
  117
  125
  132
  141
  149
  159
  169
  179
  190
  202
  214
  227
  240
  255
  270
  286
  302
  320
  339
Earnings before tax, $m
  176
  127
  130
  132
  135
  139
  142
  146
  150
  154
  158
  184
  190
  195
  201
  207
  213
  220
  227
  235
  243
  252
  261
  270
  280
  290
  301
  313
  325
  338
  351
Tax expense, $m
  20
  34
  35
  36
  37
  37
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  50
  51
  53
  54
  56
  58
  59
  61
  63
  66
  68
  70
  73
  76
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
Net income, $m
  155
  93
  95
  97
  99
  101
  104
  106
  109
  112
  116
  135
  138
  142
  147
  151
  156
  161
  166
  172
  177
  184
  190
  197
  204
  212
  220
  228
  237
  246
  256

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  28
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,906
  4,970
  5,084
  5,215
  5,362
  5,524
  5,703
  5,897
  6,107
  6,334
  6,577
  6,837
  7,114
  7,410
  7,724
  8,057
  8,410
  8,784
  9,179
  9,597
  10,038
  10,503
  10,993
  11,511
  12,056
  12,630
  13,234
  13,870
  14,539
  15,243
  15,984
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,878
  4,970
  5,084
  5,215
  5,362
  5,524
  5,703
  5,897
  6,107
  6,334
  6,577
  6,837
  7,114
  7,410
  7,724
  8,057
  8,410
  8,784
  9,179
  9,597
  10,038
  10,503
  10,993
  11,511
  12,056
  12,630
  13,234
  13,870
  14,539
  15,243
  15,984
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.275
  0.275
  0.275
  0.275
  0.275
  0.275
  0.275
  0.275
  0.275
  0.275
  0.275
  0.275
  0.275
  0.275
  0.275
  0.275
  0.275
  0.275
  0.275
  0.275
  0.275
  0.275
  0.275
  0.275
  0.275
  0.275
  0.275
  0.275
  0.275
  0.275
  0.275
Average production assets, $m
  94
  96
  98
  100
  103
  106
  110
  114
  118
  122
  127
  132
  137
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  193
  202
  212
  222
  232
  243
  255
  267
  280
  293
  308
Working capital, $m
  -105
  56
  57
  59
  60
  62
  64
  66
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  180
Total debt, $m
  1,558
  1,587
  1,657
  1,737
  1,826
  1,926
  2,035
  2,154
  2,283
  2,421
  2,570
  2,729
  2,899
  3,080
  3,272
  3,476
  3,692
  3,921
  4,163
  4,418
  4,688
  4,973
  5,273
  5,590
  5,923
  6,274
  6,644
  7,033
  7,443
  7,874
  8,327
Total liabilities, $m
  3,013
  3,042
  3,112
  3,192
  3,281
  3,381
  3,490
  3,609
  3,738
  3,876
  4,025
  4,184
  4,354
  4,535
  4,727
  4,931
  5,147
  5,376
  5,618
  5,873
  6,143
  6,428
  6,728
  7,045
  7,378
  7,729
  8,099
  8,488
  8,898
  9,329
  9,782
Total equity, $m
  1,893
  1,928
  1,973
  2,023
  2,080
  2,143
  2,213
  2,288
  2,370
  2,457
  2,552
  2,653
  2,760
  2,875
  2,997
  3,126
  3,263
  3,408
  3,561
  3,723
  3,895
  4,075
  4,265
  4,466
  4,678
  4,900
  5,135
  5,382
  5,641
  5,914
  6,202
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,906
  4,970
  5,085
  5,215
  5,361
  5,524
  5,703
  5,897
  6,108
  6,333
  6,577
  6,837
  7,114
  7,410
  7,724
  8,057
  8,410
  8,784
  9,179
  9,596
  10,038
  10,503
  10,993
  11,511
  12,056
  12,629
  13,234
  13,870
  14,539
  15,243
  15,984
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.823
  0.820
  0.840
  0.860
  0.880
  0.900
  0.920
  0.940
  0.960
  0.990
  1.010
  1.030
  1.050
  1.070
  1.090
  1.110
  1.130
  1.150
  1.170
  1.190
  1.200
  1.220
  1.240
  1.250
  1.270
  1.280
  1.290
  1.310
  1.320
  1.330
  1.340
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.382
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  155
  93
  95
  97
  99
  101
  104
  106
  109
  112
  116
  135
  138
  142
  147
  151
  156
  161
  166
  172
  177
  184
  190
  197
  204
  212
  220
  228
  237
  246
  256
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  201
  40
  41
  41
  42
  43
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
Funds from operations, $m
  325
  133
  136
  138
  141
  144
  147
  150
  154
  158
  162
  161
  166
  171
  176
  182
  188
  195
  201
  209
  216
  224
  232
  241
  251
  260
  271
  282
  293
  305
  318
Change in working capital, $m
  -7
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
Cash from operations, $m
  332
  226
  134
  137
  139
  142
  145
  148
  152
  155
  159
  158
  163
  168
  173
  178
  184
  190
  197
  204
  211
  219
  227
  236
  245
  254
  264
  275
  286
  297
  309
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
New CAPEX, $m
  -266
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -276
  -21
  -21
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
Free cash flow, $m
  56
  206
  113
  115
  116
  118
  120
  122
  125
  128
  130
  128
  131
  135
  138
  142
  146
  151
  155
  160
  166
  171
  177
  183
  190
  197
  204
  211
  219
  228
  237
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -52
  57
  70
  80
  90
  99
  109
  119
  129
  139
  149
  159
  170
  181
  192
  204
  216
  229
  242
  256
  270
  285
  300
  317
  333
  351
  370
  389
  410
  431
  453
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  31
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -22
  57
  70
  80
  90
  99
  109
  119
  129
  139
  149
  159
  170
  181
  192
  204
  216
  229
  242
  256
  270
  285
  300
  317
  333
  351
  370
  389
  410
  431
  453
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  33
  263
  183
  194
  206
  218
  229
  241
  254
  266
  279
  287
  301
  315
  330
  346
  362
  380
  397
  416
  436
  456
  477
  500
  523
  548
  574
  601
  629
  659
  690
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -73
  -35
  -44
  -51
  -57
  -63
  -69
  -75
  -82
  -88
  -94
  -101
  -108
  -115
  -122
  -129
  -137
  -145
  -153
  -162
  -171
  -181
  -190
  -201
  -211
  -223
  -234
  -247
  -260
  -273
  -287
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  227
  139
  144
  149
  154
  160
  166
  172
  178
  185
  186
  193
  201
  209
  217
  225
  235
  244
  254
  264
  275
  287
  299
  312
  325
  339
  354
  369
  385
  402
Discount rate, %
 
  7.40
  7.77
  8.16
  8.57
  8.99
  9.44
  9.92
  10.41
  10.93
  11.48
  12.05
  12.66
  13.29
  13.95
  14.65
  15.38
  16.15
  16.96
  17.81
  18.70
  19.63
  20.62
  21.65
  22.73
  23.87
  25.06
  26.31
  27.63
  29.01
  30.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  211
  119
  114
  107
  100
  93
  86
  78
  70
  62
  53
  46
  40
  33
  28
  23
  18
  15
  11
  9
  6
  5
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

ALLETE, Inc. operates as an energy company. The company operates through three segments: Regulated Operations, ALLETE Clean Energy, and U.S. Water Services. It generates electricity from coal-fired, natural gas-fired, biomass co-fired, hydroelectric, wind, solar, and other sources. The company provides regulated electric, natural gas, and water services in northwestern Wisconsin to approximately 15,000 electric customers, 13,000 natural gas customers, and 10,000 water customers, as well as regulated utility electric service in northeastern Minnesota to approximately 145,000 retail customers and 16 non-affiliated municipal customers. It also owns and maintains electric transmission assets in Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, and Illinois. In addition, the company focuses on developing, acquiring, and operating clean and renewable energy projects; and owns and operates approximately 535 MW of nameplate capacity wind energy generation that are under power sales agreements. Further, it offers integrated water management for industry by combining chemical, equipment, engineering, and service for customized solutions to reduce water and energy usage. Additionally, the company is involved in the coal mining operations in North Dakota; and real estate investment activities in Florida. The company owns and operates 165 substations with a total capacity of 8,396 megavolt amperes. It serves taconite mining, iron concentrate, paper, pulp and wood products, and pipeline industries. The company was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Duluth, Minnesota.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Allete (ALE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 22.4
Price to Sales 2.6
Price to Book 1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 52.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -9.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -7.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 72.4%
Total Debt to Equity 82.3%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Return On Total Capital 4.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Return On Equity 8.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 33.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.3%
Operating Margin 16.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Net Profit Margin 11.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.7%
Effective Tax Rate 11.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.2%
Payout Ratio 66.5%

ALE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ALE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1340 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Allete. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Allete. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ALE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.4%, whose default value for ALE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Allete, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Allete.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ALE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 85.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ALE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.3% for Allete.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Allete. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ALE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ALE are equal to 7%.

Life of production assets of 1.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Allete operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ALE is equal to 4.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1893 million for Allete - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 51.1 million for Allete is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Allete at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.6 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ALLETE Board of Directors Declares Dividend on Common Stock   [Apr-26-17 06:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to ALLETE, Inc. : April 24, 2017   [Apr-24-17 02:15PM  Capital Cube]
▶ A Small-Cap Sector ETF That's Working   [Apr-11-17 12:41PM  Investopedia]
▶ ALLETE to Announce First Quarter Financial Results on May 4   [Apr-10-17 10:33AM  Business Wire]
▶ Allete beats 4Q profit forecasts   [06:46AM  Associated Press]
▶ ALLETE Names LaMarr Barnes U.S. Water Services CEO   [Jan-16-17 05:13PM  Business Wire]
▶ ALLETE Board of Directors Declares Dividend on Common Stock   [Oct-28-16 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ ALLETE Board of Directors Declares Dividend on Common Stock   [Jul-28-16 06:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Cliffs Announces Agreements with Minnesota Power   [May-24-16 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ CEO Hodnik Tells Shareholders ALLETE Has Sustainable Future   [May-10-16 02:00PM  Business Wire]
Stock chart of ALE Financial statements of ALE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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