Intrinsic value of Align Technology - ALGN

Previous Close

$272.25

  Intrinsic Value

$259.38

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-5%

Previous close

$272.25

 
Intrinsic value

$259.38

 
Up/down potential

-5%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of ALGN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  27.81
  38.00
  34.70
  31.73
  29.06
  26.65
  24.49
  22.54
  20.78
  19.21
  17.78
  16.51
  15.36
  14.32
  13.39
  12.55
  11.79
  11.11
  10.50
  9.95
  9.46
  9.01
  8.61
  8.25
  7.92
  7.63
  7.37
  7.13
  6.92
  6.73
  6.55
Revenue, $m
  1,080
  1,490
  2,008
  2,645
  3,413
  4,323
  5,381
  6,594
  7,964
  9,494
  11,182
  13,028
  15,029
  17,181
  19,481
  21,926
  24,512
  27,236
  30,097
  33,092
  36,222
  39,487
  42,887
  46,425
  50,104
  53,928
  57,902
  62,032
  66,324
  70,785
  75,425
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,102
  1,482
  1,951
  2,516
  3,185
  3,963
  4,855
  5,863
  6,987
  8,229
  9,580
  11,051
  12,634
  14,325
  16,123
  18,025
  20,028
  22,132
  24,335
  26,636
  29,037
  31,537
  34,139
  36,844
  39,656
  42,578
  45,615
  48,771
  52,052
  55,464
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  56
  58
  59
  61
  62
  64
  65
  67
Total operating expenses, $m
  831
  1,135
  1,516
  1,985
  2,551
  3,221
  4,000
  4,893
  5,902
  7,027
  8,270
  9,622
  11,094
  12,678
  14,370
  16,169
  18,073
  20,077
  22,182
  24,386
  26,688
  29,091
  31,592
  34,195
  36,902
  39,715
  42,639
  45,677
  48,835
  52,117
  55,531
Operating income, $m
  249
  356
  492
  659
  862
  1,102
  1,381
  1,701
  2,063
  2,466
  2,912
  3,406
  3,934
  4,503
  5,110
  5,756
  6,439
  7,159
  7,915
  8,707
  9,534
  10,396
  11,295
  12,230
  13,202
  14,213
  15,263
  16,354
  17,489
  18,668
  19,894
EBITDA, $m
  273
  386
  531
  709
  924
  1,179
  1,476
  1,816
  2,200
  2,629
  3,103
  3,620
  4,182
  4,786
  5,431
  6,117
  6,843
  7,608
  8,411
  9,252
  10,130
  11,046
  12,001
  12,994
  14,027
  15,101
  16,216
  17,376
  18,581
  19,833
  21,136
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  5
  12
  20
  30
  42
  56
  72
  89
  109
  131
  155
  181
  209
  239
  271
  304
  340
  377
  416
  456
  499
  543
  589
  636
  686
  738
  791
  847
  905
Earnings before tax, $m
  243
  356
  486
  647
  842
  1,071
  1,339
  1,645
  1,991
  2,377
  2,803
  3,275
  3,779
  4,322
  4,901
  5,517
  6,169
  6,855
  7,576
  8,330
  9,118
  9,940
  10,796
  11,687
  12,613
  13,576
  14,577
  15,617
  16,697
  17,821
  18,989
Tax expense, $m
  52
  96
  131
  175
  227
  289
  361
  444
  538
  642
  757
  884
  1,020
  1,167
  1,323
  1,490
  1,666
  1,851
  2,045
  2,249
  2,462
  2,684
  2,915
  3,156
  3,406
  3,666
  3,936
  4,216
  4,508
  4,812
  5,127
Net income, $m
  190
  260
  355
  473
  614
  782
  977
  1,201
  1,453
  1,735
  2,046
  2,391
  2,759
  3,155
  3,578
  4,028
  4,503
  5,004
  5,530
  6,081
  6,656
  7,256
  7,881
  8,532
  9,208
  9,911
  10,641
  11,400
  12,189
  13,009
  13,862

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  640
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,396
  1,043
  1,405
  1,851
  2,388
  3,025
  3,766
  4,614
  5,573
  6,644
  7,825
  9,117
  10,517
  12,023
  13,633
  15,343
  17,153
  19,060
  21,062
  23,158
  25,348
  27,632
  30,012
  32,488
  35,062
  37,738
  40,519
  43,409
  46,413
  49,535
  52,781
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  756
  1,043
  1,405
  1,851
  2,388
  3,025
  3,766
  4,614
  5,573
  6,644
  7,825
  9,117
  10,517
  12,023
  13,633
  15,343
  17,153
  19,060
  21,062
  23,158
  25,348
  27,632
  30,012
  32,488
  35,062
  37,738
  40,519
  43,409
  46,413
  49,535
  52,781
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
Average production assets, $m
  176
  243
  327
  431
  556
  705
  877
  1,075
  1,298
  1,547
  1,823
  2,124
  2,450
  2,800
  3,175
  3,574
  3,995
  4,439
  4,906
  5,394
  5,904
  6,436
  6,991
  7,567
  8,167
  8,790
  9,438
  10,111
  10,811
  11,538
  12,294
Working capital, $m
  599
  -57
  -76
  -100
  -130
  -164
  -204
  -251
  -303
  -361
  -425
  -495
  -571
  -653
  -740
  -833
  -931
  -1,035
  -1,144
  -1,258
  -1,376
  -1,500
  -1,630
  -1,764
  -1,904
  -2,049
  -2,200
  -2,357
  -2,520
  -2,690
  -2,866
Total debt, $m
  0
  152
  344
  580
  865
  1,202
  1,595
  2,045
  2,553
  3,120
  3,746
  4,431
  5,173
  5,971
  6,824
  7,731
  8,690
  9,701
  10,762
  11,873
  13,033
  14,244
  15,505
  16,817
  18,182
  19,600
  21,074
  22,606
  24,198
  25,852
  27,573
Total liabilities, $m
  401
  553
  745
  981
  1,266
  1,603
  1,996
  2,446
  2,954
  3,521
  4,147
  4,832
  5,574
  6,372
  7,225
  8,132
  9,091
  10,102
  11,163
  12,274
  13,434
  14,645
  15,906
  17,218
  18,583
  20,001
  21,475
  23,007
  24,599
  26,253
  27,974
Total equity, $m
  995
  490
  660
  870
  1,123
  1,422
  1,770
  2,169
  2,619
  3,123
  3,678
  4,285
  4,943
  5,651
  6,407
  7,211
  8,062
  8,958
  9,899
  10,884
  11,914
  12,987
  14,106
  15,269
  16,479
  17,737
  19,044
  20,402
  21,814
  23,281
  24,807
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,396
  1,043
  1,405
  1,851
  2,389
  3,025
  3,766
  4,615
  5,573
  6,644
  7,825
  9,117
  10,517
  12,023
  13,632
  15,343
  17,153
  19,060
  21,062
  23,158
  25,348
  27,632
  30,012
  32,487
  35,062
  37,738
  40,519
  43,409
  46,413
  49,534
  52,781
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.310
  0.520
  0.670
  0.770
  0.850
  0.900
  0.940
  0.970
  1.000
  1.020
  1.030
  1.050
  1.060
  1.070
  1.070
  1.080
  1.080
  1.090
  1.090
  1.090
  1.100
  1.100
  1.100
  1.100
  1.110
  1.110
  1.110
  1.110
  1.110
  1.110
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  190
  260
  355
  473
  614
  782
  977
  1,201
  1,453
  1,735
  2,046
  2,391
  2,759
  3,155
  3,578
  4,028
  4,503
  5,004
  5,530
  6,081
  6,656
  7,256
  7,881
  8,532
  9,208
  9,911
  10,641
  11,400
  12,189
  13,009
  13,862
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  24
  31
  39
  50
  62
  77
  95
  115
  137
  162
  190
  215
  247
  283
  321
  361
  404
  448
  496
  545
  596
  650
  706
  764
  825
  888
  953
  1,021
  1,092
  1,165
  1,242
Funds from operations, $m
  231
  290
  394
  522
  677
  859
  1,072
  1,316
  1,591
  1,898
  2,236
  2,605
  3,006
  3,438
  3,899
  4,389
  4,907
  5,453
  6,026
  6,626
  7,253
  7,906
  8,587
  9,296
  10,033
  10,799
  11,594
  12,421
  13,281
  14,175
  15,104
Change in working capital, $m
  -17
  -16
  -20
  -24
  -29
  -35
  -40
  -46
  -52
  -58
  -64
  -70
  -76
  -82
  -87
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -163
  -170
  -176
Cash from operations, $m
  248
  306
  414
  546
  706
  894
  1,112
  1,362
  1,643
  1,956
  2,301
  2,675
  3,082
  3,519
  3,986
  4,482
  5,005
  5,556
  6,134
  6,740
  7,372
  8,030
  8,717
  9,430
  10,173
  10,944
  11,745
  12,578
  13,444
  14,344
  15,280
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -18
  -25
  -33
  -44
  -56
  -71
  -89
  -109
  -131
  -156
  -184
  -215
  -247
  -283
  -321
  -361
  -404
  -448
  -496
  -545
  -596
  -650
  -706
  -764
  -825
  -888
  -953
  -1,021
  -1,092
  -1,165
New CAPEX, $m
  -71
  -67
  -84
  -104
  -125
  -148
  -173
  -198
  -223
  -249
  -275
  -301
  -326
  -351
  -375
  -398
  -422
  -444
  -466
  -488
  -510
  -532
  -554
  -577
  -600
  -623
  -648
  -673
  -700
  -727
  -756
Cash from investing activities, $m
  73
  -85
  -109
  -137
  -169
  -204
  -244
  -287
  -332
  -380
  -431
  -485
  -541
  -598
  -658
  -719
  -783
  -848
  -914
  -984
  -1,055
  -1,128
  -1,204
  -1,283
  -1,364
  -1,448
  -1,536
  -1,626
  -1,721
  -1,819
  -1,921
Free cash flow, $m
  321
  221
  305
  409
  537
  689
  869
  1,075
  1,311
  1,575
  1,869
  2,190
  2,542
  2,921
  3,328
  3,762
  4,223
  4,709
  5,220
  5,756
  6,317
  6,902
  7,512
  8,148
  8,808
  9,496
  10,210
  10,952
  11,723
  12,525
  13,358
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  152
  192
  236
  285
  337
  393
  450
  508
  567
  626
  685
  742
  798
  853
  907
  959
  1,010
  1,061
  1,111
  1,161
  1,211
  1,261
  1,312
  1,365
  1,418
  1,474
  1,532
  1,592
  1,655
  1,721
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -82
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -96
  152
  192
  236
  285
  337
  393
  450
  508
  567
  626
  685
  742
  798
  853
  907
  959
  1,010
  1,061
  1,111
  1,161
  1,211
  1,261
  1,312
  1,365
  1,418
  1,474
  1,532
  1,592
  1,655
  1,721
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  222
  372
  497
  646
  822
  1,027
  1,261
  1,525
  1,819
  2,143
  2,495
  2,875
  3,284
  3,719
  4,181
  4,669
  5,182
  5,719
  6,281
  6,867
  7,477
  8,113
  8,773
  9,460
  10,173
  10,914
  11,684
  12,484
  13,315
  14,180
  15,079
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -147
  -135
  -170
  -210
  -253
  -299
  -348
  -399
  -451
  -503
  -555
  -607
  -658
  -708
  -757
  -804
  -851
  -896
  -941
  -985
  -1,029
  -1,074
  -1,118
  -1,164
  -1,210
  -1,258
  -1,307
  -1,358
  -1,412
  -1,467
  -1,526
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  640
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  877
  327
  436
  569
  728
  913
  1,126
  1,368
  1,640
  1,940
  2,268
  2,626
  3,012
  3,425
  3,865
  4,331
  4,823
  5,340
  5,882
  6,448
  7,039
  7,655
  8,296
  8,963
  9,656
  10,377
  11,125
  11,903
  12,712
  13,553
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  841
  299
  380
  469
  564
  663
  761
  855
  942
  1,017
  1,077
  1,120
  1,145
  1,150
  1,135
  1,101
  1,049
  983
  906
  819
  728
  635
  544
  457
  376
  303
  239
  184
  139
  102
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Align Technology, Inc. designs, manufactures and markets a system of clear aligner therapy, intra-oral scanners and computer-aided design/computer-aided manufacturing (CAD/CAM) digital services used in dentistry, orthodontics and dental records storage. The Company operates through two segments: Clear Aligner segment and Scanner and Services (Scanner) segment. The Clear Aligner segment consists of its Invisalign System, which includes Invisalign Full, Teen and Assist (Comprehensive Products), Express/Lite (Non-Comprehensive Products) and Vivera Retainers, along with its training and ancillary products for treating malocclusion (Non-Case). The Scanner segment consists of intra-oral scanning systems and other services available with the intra-oral scanners that provide digital alternatives to the traditional cast models. The Scanner segment includes its iTero scanner and OrthoCAD services.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Align Technology (ALGN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 114
Price to Sales 20.1
Price to Book 21.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 87.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 122.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 27.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 34%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 30.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 14.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.8%
Return On Total Capital 20.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.9%
Return On Equity 20.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.9%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 75.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 75.7%
EBITDA Margin 24.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.4%
Operating Margin 23.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 22.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.1%
Net Profit Margin 17.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.9%
Effective Tax Rate 21.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

ALGN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ALGN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1080 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Align Technology. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Align Technology. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ALGN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 38% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ALGN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Align Technology, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Align Technology.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ALGN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 74.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $32 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ALGN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Align Technology.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Align Technology. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ALGN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ALGN are equal to 16.3%.

Life of production assets of 9.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Align Technology operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ALGN is equal to -3.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $995 million for Align Technology - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 81.732 million for Align Technology is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Align Technology at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $22.3 billion.

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Financial statements of ALGN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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